Randers vs Lausanne Sports

29/07/2010

Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League Qualifier in Denmark between Randers and Lausanne Sports. Hosts Randers have been in European competition for a few years now so they do have some experience whereas Lausanne Sports hail from the Swiss Challenge League so have zero European experience in recent times, only managing to achieve their place in this competition because of a successful cup run last season.

So just how good are Randers? Can anyone actually answer that question? I’m personally a big fan of them due to their never-say-die attitude and consistent level of potency and they’ve been largely reliable to bet upon in European competition in my experience. The most bizarre aspect of Randers is that they’re capable of troubling good sides on their day and they’ll do the job in one leg and then completely fail to show up in the second leg. For example, consider their 6-1 against Luxembourg’s F91 Dudelange at the start of the month. They followed up that win with a defeat in Luxembourg despite being easily twice as good as their opponents. They won 3-0 in Slovenia in the last round against Gorica and then drew the second leg at home 1-1. Randers are very effective when they need to do the job and then lacklustre when they don’t have to, always on a seemingly consistent basis. One thing I have noticed about this potent Randers side this year is that they always seek to put the tie to bed in the first leg and I think we’ll see more of that tactical approach tonight. I expect them to take the game to their inferior opponents and beat the -1.75 goal handicap as a result, just as they have done for the first legs of the last two rounds of this competition.

Lausanne Sports’ aim is to be promoted to the Super League this season and yet they find themselves entwined within European competition, which must be good fun for them! Although they faced an average Bosnian side in the last round (Borac Banja Luka) they can’t have genuinely expected to progress but that’s what they did so kudos to them, winning 2-1 on aggregate. Lausanne Sports are nearly good enough to be a Super League side, in all honesty, but they’re still nowhere near the level of Randers in either ability or experience. Lausanne Sports will no doubt enjoy the delights of European football as much as possible and that motivaton will undoubtedly spur them on tonight against their Scandinavian hosts. However, they traditionally don’t travel well domestically so how they can do so in European football against a better side is something I can’t quite fathom and thus I expect the Swiss outfit to lose tonight.

I think there’s too much of a class difference today, to be blunt, and I expect it to show by the final whistle. Randers are more than capable of annihlating Lausanne Sports and then putting in yet another abject second leg display and that’s exactly what I expect will happen too. The hosts have more than enough in their arsenal to beat their opponents today by two goals or more and the odds of 17/10 on that occurring are far more generous than I’d imagined so I can only endorse that bet today.

Verdict: Randers to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 17/10.

Thursday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Sibir Novosibirsk vs Apollon Limassol – home win at 3/4.

This should be a fascinating game between two strong home sides but generally poor travellers. Sibir Novosibirsk earned a reputation last year of being a horrendous side to face away from home due to the intimidating atmosphere of Novosibirsk and that effectively got them promoted to the Russian Premier League this year. Although they’ve failed to impress en mass, what they have done is consistently scored goals at home. They may be second from bottom in the table but a statistic that has crept by unnoticed is that no side has scored more goals at home than they have in the Russian Premier League this season and they have played some good sides so hats off to them. My problem with Sibir is that their defence is horrendously poor, which is all that is putting me off backing them with a -1.75 goal handicap at 11/5. However, I really fancy the chances of the Russians today, particularly with such a culture shock awaiting the Cypriot visitors in a cold Russian venue so the home win looks to have some value here. Apollon Limassol were rising through the Cypriot ranks last year and put in some good displays but the loss of Avraam and Sangoy respectively during the window will have hurt them significantly. Apollon keep the ball well and they’ve added South African Nasief Morris to their side, which bolsters their generally strong defence. However, I have doubts over their attack minus the impressive Sangoy and think that Apollon will play for a draw here.

My big concern here is that Apollon are a better footballing side than Sibir in the sense that they keep the ball well and could cling on for a draw here. However, Sibir have tremendous potency at the moment with eight goals scored in their last three home games so Apollon’s solid defence is going to face a thorough examination today. Sibir have put two goals per game past giants Lokomotiv Moscow and Dinamo Moscow respectively in their last two games so I have no doubts over their ability to score goals here today too. An early goal would make the handicap look tasty but I’m happy to settle for a plain home win at decent odds of 3/4.

Verdict: Sibir Novosibirsk to win at 3/4.

Spartak Subotica vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk – under 2.5 goals at 39/50.

Odds of 39/50 are not generally what I would call as value, particularly for an under 2.5 goals selection. However, for this game, I consider it to be potentially great value because of the problems facing the hosts and the style of the visitors. In case you’re wondering where this game will be played in Serbia – it’s being played in Novi Sad, so there is zero home advantage for the minnows. Subotica sold a lot of players during the window and thus struggled against Luxembourgian side Differdange 03, eventually winning 5-3 on aggregate. Former Vojvodina Novi Sad striker Ubiparip is a doubt for Subotica and full-back Stevanovic will be suspended for this game so the numbers of the Serbian side are growing even thinner by the day. They’re an average Serbian side at best and really should be undone today. As I’ve stated before, I have little faith in Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk away from home as they generally just don’t enjoy scoring goals, seemingly. However, they’re experienced in European football and are a bloody good side when it comes to keeping the ball which is exactly what I expect them to do today. They’ve got some very solid and dependable players in this Dnipro side i.e. Rusol, Kalinichenko, Nazarenko and they’ve also got some talented cast-offs from the likes of Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kiev i.e. Seleznev, Belik, Mandzyuk so there’s even experience to call upon from the bigger clubs if required. I’m not wholly confident about the Dnipro win because as I said before – they love to win by narrow margins and generally avoid conceding. However, what interests me an awful lot is taking under 2.5 goals at 39/50 because it could and probably should be lower as I don’t expect the hosts to score tonight.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 39/50.

Beroe vs Rapid Vienna – under 2.5 goals at evens.

This game will be played at a neutral venue but for those of you jumping all over Rapid Vienna without thinking – don’t.

Rapid Vienna aren’t what they were last year, sadly. They were a real force last year but the departure of target man Maierhofer in January and then the exit of key playmaker Boskovic in June has hindered them massively. Finnish Markus Heikkinen isn’t producing the goods at the moment and the loss of Ragnvald Soma to injury is still hurting the Austrians. I can’t deny that the Austrian giants are the better of these two sides but there’s a less able Rapid Vienna side on display at the moment and back-to-back defeats in the Bundesliga whilst leaking six goals against inferior opponents indicates that all too clearly so I doubt their chances today. Beroe are no world beaters but one thing they established beyond any doubt last season in the A PFG is their ability to defend. Hardly anyone scored against Beroe and I fully expect them to defend for their lives today and to do it successfully. Beroe sold Pisarov and Ivanov in the transfer window, both of which will hurt them, but I still rate their ability as a unit and they should trouble Rapid Vienna today as a result. I was tempted to lay the visitors but as they’re still capable of stealing a narrow win, I think it’s safer to go under 2.5 goals at a generous price of evens because Beroe don’t score goals and Rapid Vienna love to have the ball without doing much with it so it should really end as an under 2.5 goals scoreline.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.

Karpaty Lviv vs Zestaponi – over 2.5 goals at evens, both sides to score at evens.

I’m not entirely sure that Karpaty have done enough to warrant the odds that they’ve been given but I guess we’ll know by the final whistle today. Karpaty are a good side in Ukraine, particularly at home, but they’re not a side I consider to be good enough to be successful in Europe. They can score the odd goal but generally they’re not good enough defensivey and don’t take their chances against good sides. They eased to victory in the last round at KR Reykjavik in Iceland and then won the home leg 3-2 (although they fielded partially a second string in this game). KR let themselves down in those games but Karpaty face a very different side – Georgian outfit Zestaponi. I’ve grown to love the Georgian side because of their relentless pursuit of goals. I do respect the likes of Dinamo Tbilisi, who are the true giants of Georgian football, but Zestaponi don’t play like Dinamo do. Dinamo defend; Zestaponi consistently attack and have a lot of joy doing so too. They scored three past Slovakian side Banska Bystrica in the last round and smashed five past San Marinese minnows Faetano in the round before that so the Georgian outfit certainly know how to score goals. I have some question marks about their defending, particularly away from home, but I have no doubts over their potency. Karpaty have been a little overrated and flattered by results so far in this competition and I think it’s time they got a bit of a wake-up from a talented side. I fancy both sides to score in this game at generous odds and I also like over 2.5 goals as I feel there will be a winner here, most likely Karpaty if Zestaponi put in an abject display defensively.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens, both sides to score at evens.

Aalesund vs Motherwell – home win at 5/4.

This really should be a very tight and low-scoring affair between two dogged sides. I can’t shed as much light on the game as I’d like to as I’ve heard little information regarding injuries etc. I simply feel that Scottish football is still lacking and despite Motherwell managing to overcome high-flying Breidablik Kopavogur of Iceland in the last round, I feel they’ve got a much harder task today against a stubborn Aalesund forged by the hands of mighty Kjetil Rekdal. This excellent Aalesund side punctured a massively in-form and talented Valerenga Oslo side at home last match domestically and have only lost once at home in nine games despite boasting few big names in their side. They defend incredibly well and take their chances. I just feel that they’re a considerably better side than Motherwell and although I admire the pluck of Motherwell, I can’t see them leaving Norway with anything but a defeat and the odds are decent enough to take a chance on, I feel.

Verdict: Aalesund to win at 5/4.

OB Odense vs Zrinjski Mostar – home win with -1.75 handicap at 11/10.

There’s no secrets here – Bosnian sides never travel well domestically, let alone in Europe! I rate Zrinjski Mostar as arguably the best in Bosnia-Herzegovina currently but away from home against a superior side like OB Odense? They shouldn’t stand a chance. OB will miss Djemba-Djemba for the game, who is rumoured to be returning to the Premier League but for West Bromwich Albion. However, OB shouldn’t be troubled unduly by their opponents today, particularly with Zrinjski missing captain Ivankovic through injury, not to mention Dzidic. Zrinjski’s defence is rumoured to be littered with youngsters for this game and I fancy an experienced and competent OB Odense to talk the bull by the horns and win this one comfortably. Zrinjski love to attack so I’m a tad concerned but OB should have a field day with Zrinjski’s defence and thus I expect them to beat the handicap today, particularly at home!

Verdict: OB Odense to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 11/10.

Wisla Krakow vs Qarabagh – lay Wisla Krakow at 13/5.

I can only view the odds on a Wisla win here as a “bookies trap”, as I call them. I’ve only been massively unconvinced with almost every performance I’ve seen from an Ekstraklasa side in European competition this season with goals not being scored and virtually no sense of tactics. Only Wisla have changed my mind slightly on that front but even they are some distance short of being good enough to earn the odds given to them today. They’re not facing some no-names from San Marino; they’re facing a competent side from Azerbaijan who became the furthest-progressing Azeri side in European competition last year through consistently solid defensive displays. They’ve played some good sides along the way too. In fact, the only side to beat Qarabagh in their last ten European games was a strong Twente side in Netherlands so don’t underestimate Qarabagh here – they had to beat Rosenborg and Honka Espoo respectively last year but did so. They’ve not been as tested this year but they’re still a good side and I fancy them to cause the hosts problems because Wisla aren’t that good. Wisla miss defensive lynchpin Cleber for this game, who is a big loss, and I don’t have a lot of faith in Wisla without them being full-strength. Either way, the hosts are too short today so even if you don’t lay the hosts at generous odds, I hope I’ve at least persuaded you to avoid this potential “bookies trap”!

Verdict: Lay Wisla Krakow at 13/5.

Nordsjaelland vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa – both sides to score at evens, over 2.5 goals at evens.

I have to confess that I’ve been massively impressed with the clinical and efficient displays of Sporting in pre-season friendlies and they look raring to go for this year’s Liga Sagres. I feared for them after last year’s dismal campaign but they’ve roared back and are well-placed to do damage today. However, Nordsjaelland will have other ideas and although they’re not as sound defensively as they should be, they’re still a potent threat in front of goal. They’ve scored lots of goals in pre-season friendlies and have scored a good number of goals in their Superligaen campaign this year so don’t underestimate the hosts today – they’re a decent enough outfit to score here. Nordsjaelland have played in European football before so they know what it’s about although their opponents are undoubtedly far more experienced. I can see a lot of goals here as neither are any use defensively but both after offering a lot in attack at the moment. More people on forums are favouring over 2.5 goals than both sides to score but I like both sides to score here a little bit more.. Either way, there should be value in both selections for this game today and it should be a good game to watch too!

Verdict: Both sides to score at evens, over 2.5 goals at evens.

Red Star Belgrade vs Slovan Bratislava – home win with -1.75 handicap at 11/10.

Red Star haven’t convinced me in Europe over the past couple of years because they’re falling behind Partizan quality-wise and aren’t scoring enough goals anymore. However, they’re facing an inferior side that has a new manager and few attackers so you have to give the Serbian giants their chances today. On top of that, the Serbian hosts have scored at least twice in their last four European home games against Slavia Prague, Dinamo Tbilisi, Rudar Velenje, and APOEL Nicosia respectively so they do enjoy their home comforts. Slovan are a good side on their day and have some experienced players but when you consider that they’re missing Halenar, Obzera, Dobrotka, Bagi, and Breznanik then it’s hard to consider them seriously for this game. Halenar was their top scorer last season and they lack any serious goal threat without him. Dobrotka is a key defender for Slovan and Breznanik is a strong midfielder for Slovan so they’ll both be missed. Bagi – his loss is not too important but it’s the number of losses and the positions that they play in that concerns me today. I rate Slovan Bratislava but this Slovan side surely must lose and lose convincingly at a tough Marakana stadium today against a strong home side like Red Star? The handicap price looks good enough to take either way although I must emphasise caution if Red Star’s recent European displays are anything to go by.

Verdict: Red Star Belgrade to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 11/10.

Shamrock Rovers vs Juventus – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.

This is a bold call but one I really rather like. I’ve mentioned before how I feel Serie A football is stagnating in Europe and even small sides like Shamrock can trouble them with consistent pressure and stamina which is what I expect to happen today. Roy Hodgson knew that last year which is why Fulham had so much joy against Juventus and eventually beat them. The individual quality of Juventus’ players is undeniable but I feel that their football style won’t do a lot of damage to a brave and vigilant Shamrock Rovers side. On paper, this should be 0-10. In reality, I think we’re going to see a far closer game than is expected with Shamrock possibly even stealing a goal and/or claiming a heroic draw here. I don’t doubt the ability of Juventus, only their tactics against such resilient opponents. This is the biggest game in Shamrock’s history so they’ll be motivated beyond anything whereas this is Juventus’ first competitive game of the season so they can’t be firing on all cylinders. Also bear in mind that Shamrock are mid-season domestically so they have additional match practice. With the above in mind, I fancy a very cheeky bet on this game going under 2.5 goals at 6/5 and I’d discourage people from using Juventus in accumulators because I see little reason to back them at such odds with the above in mind.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.

Accumulator fodder:

Utrecht, Randers, OB Odense, Galatasaray.

Recommended bets:

Randers, Utrecht, and OB Odense at 2/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!