Botafogo vs Avai

Saturday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna – lay Austria Vienna at 10/11.

After a predictably poor start to the season from SV Kapfenberg, the hosts have surprisingly got themselves back on track swiftly, winning three consecutive games. Even more impressively, one of those games was away from home, which is like winning the lottery for Kapfenberg! They’ve also crushed Mattersburg 3-1 during that run so momentum favours the hosts here and they’re experienced enough in the Bundesliga to know how to take points at home. Obviously Austria Vienna are the better of these two sides but an unconvincing game in Greece mid-week in the UEFA Europa League eventually yielded in a last-minute defeat for the Austrians, which should demoralise them a little as well as tire them from the journey. Will Austria Vienna field a full-strength side here with the second leg looming large next week? It’s hard to imagine it. Kapfenberg have prevented Austria Vienna from winning here for three out of Austria Vienna’s last four visits here so it wouldn’t be unusual to see Kapfenberg take something here. Again, odds of 10/11 aren’t earth-shatteringly phenomenal but there should be some value here.

Verdict: Lay Austria Vienna at 10/11.

Ceara vs Gremio – lay Ceara at 3/4.

This was a very close contender for game of the day but I slightly favoured the Botafogo win over this one. Nonetheless, I have strong belief in this one and also believe that the bookies have made a virtually cataclysmic error here! I appreciate Gremio are traditionally poor travellers in Serie A but they’ve finally realised that relegation is a very real possibility so they’ve started to put their backs into matches and are actually scoring goals again. Gremio lost their tie against Goias in the Copa Sudamericana although I believe that was deliberate to stave off the threat of relegation because if you check their Serie A form, it’s been fairly strong either side of those games. The only side to beat them in their last five games was a very in-form Fluminense, who are the current league leaders, so I think that’s acceptable for now! They’ve not lost for two consecutive away games now, drawing 2-2 at Cruzeiro and drawing 0-0 with Internacional in the Porto-Alegrense derby so Gremio’s momentum is slowly building up here and they shouldn’t be underestimated for their league placing.

You also have to feel that these odds have been heavily influenced by Ceara’s impressive home record this season, although a great portion of that record is owed to former manager Gusmao, who now manages Vasco da Gama. You can see how good a job he did by the fact that Ceara now have their second manager since his departure just a couple of months ago. Ceara have scored just three goals in their past seven Serie A games because their defence was always their strength but they’ve also looked like sitting ducks during that time because this is Brazil – there’s always goals somewhere! Ceara haven’t scored for three consecutive home games now, drawing each game 0-0, so why not again tonight? They’ve faced two good sides along the way and one poor side but if you don’t score goals then you don’t win games and Ceara certainly aren’t better than Gremio so why are they such favourites here?

The odds don’t make sense to me. Laying an impotent and inferior side against a good side that don’t concede many at 3/4 is far too generous in my eyes so I really fancy Gremio to not lose this one today, perhaps to even sneak a first away win of the season if they manage to score.

Verdict: Lay Ceara at 3/4.

Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.

I was sorely tempted to take a Deportivo Cali win here at generous odds because although their title-winning days are behind them, they’re still a horrible side to play in Cali, rarely losing to anyone. Deportivo’s problem was never defending; it’s always been scoring enough goals to win games. They’ve played three home games in the Primera A this season and have won once and drawn twice so you can see why I backed away from the home win here. However, they’re hosting a superior Atletico Junior Barranquilla side so there realistically should be goals here. Atletico have just beaten Deportivo Cali 1-0 at home in the Copa Colombia and now face the first of two away trips against them in quick succession, albeit this one is a league encounter. When these two sides meet in Cali, however, there are always goals. There has been over 2.5 goals for the last five games in Cali between these two sides and over 2.5 goals in general for six out of their last seven games between the two sides at either ground so we should expect goals here. I don’t know why Deportivo transform into a potent or suicidal side against Atletico unless it’s bitterness at the limelight that Atletico tends to claim nowadays whereas Deportivo Cali tend to linger in the shadows nowadays. Either way, this game traditionally goes over 2.5 goals so 6/5 on over 2.5 goals looks a good bet tonight.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.

Sparta Prague vs Viktoria Plzen – lay Sparta Prague at 10/11.

Sparta Prague were on the receiving end of a 2-0 defeat at home to MSK Zilina mid-week in the UEFA Champions League, which is a massive blow to them. They prioritise the Champions League above all competitions for obvious reasons but their loss to their rivals leaves their chances of progressing to the next round in real jeopardy. The return leg is next week in Slovakia and I cannot imagine for one second that Chovanec will field his first-team at home against potential title contenders Viktoria Plzen today. Chovanec himself has already said that he expects a derby atmosphere at this game because Plzen possess a lot of ex-Sparta Prague players and I believe that will motivate the visitors more to get a result here. Hell, there’s a damn good chance Plzen could win here, let alone not lose. Sparta have already shown their lack of depth this season by losing at an impotent Ceske Budejovice whereas Viktoria Plzen are really flexing their muscles this year with four wins and one draw from five Gambrinus Liga games. They’ve endured a nightmare tie with Besiktas JK but have bounced back from that eventual defeat in great fashion and looking as if they’d never cared less about an exit! Viktoria have such strong belief and a good side that I really fancy them to cause an upset here today. With the above in mind, laying the hosts at 10/11 could be a very good bet indeed today.

Verdict: Lay Sparta Prague at 10/11.

Exeter City vs Bristol Rovers – home win at 11/10.

I’m a really big fan of Exeter when they play at home because despite being some distance from being a good side in this division, they’re almost impossible to beat here. They don’t score enough goals to be consistently relied upon at home but their tenacity and support is absolutely unquestionable. They’ve already held a superior Colchester United side here this season and took Ipswich Town right to the wire in the League Cup here so I fancy Exeter to claim their first win of the season here. They’ve scored four goals in their past two home games and although their defence can be questionable, I still fancy them to win against Bristol Rovers today, just as they did at St.James’ Park last year. It aids my cause that Bristol Rovers are shipping goals for fun, too. They’ve leaked ten goals in three games, six of which were at League Two Oxford United in the League Cup, and have generally looked highly unconvincing as a result. They’ve only beaten Yeovil Town at home, which isn’t the most difficult of games to win, so Rovers are yet to start playing to their full potential. It’s a strange situation, really, as the majority of their current squad featured in their promotion drive last season and performed very well but this year they appear a tad sluggish and predictable so I think a tenacious host such as Exeter could and probably should have some joy against them. It’ll be a tight game and odds of 11/10 are quite fair but I still feel that Exeter have enough potency to win this one at home.

Verdict: Exeter City to win at 11/10.

Stromsgodset vs Brann Bergen – home win at 6/5.

How can anyone fault Stromsgodset currently? There’s such belief in their camp that they’ve won three consecutive games now without their two best strikers, arising talents Pedersen and Berget respectively. Stromsgodset don’t have a big squad so bluntly, they can’t have won those games and yet they did! The arising crop of youngsters at the Marienlyst are very pleasing on the eye with such a hunger for the game and although their immaturity tends to cost them defensively (especially on the road), they tend to score enough goals to counter it. Stromsgodset have won more home games in the Eliteserien than any other side this season with the above philosophy in mind and they have a good chance of increasing that record today, particularly as they average scoring two goals per home game currently. Godset have won this fixture for two consecutive seasons now and a weak Brann Bergen side won’t relish to the trip to Drammen with that in their minds.

I cannot deny that this poor Brann side have improved in recent weeks following much-needed talented reinforcements being added to their side but the fact is that they still rely far too much on talented attacker Huseklepp, who could very well leave the club at the end of this campaign if Brann don’t improve rapidly. Brann lost 3-1 at Start Kristiansand last match, which brings them to six defeats in ten away games this season, which isn’t good enough for a club of their stature. They leak nearly two goals per away game and generally look very unconvincing away from Bergen so I’m inclined to go against them today, although their play has improved in recent times.

Either way, odds of 6/5 on the home win look very tempting for me. I’m even happier with it if Pedersen and Berget start but it still looks a generous price either way with Brann looking particularly weak this year so my call is a Godset home win today.

Verdict: Stromsgodset to win at 6/5.

Gorzow Wielkopolski vs Gornik Polkowice – home win at 10/11.

Gorzow Wielkopolski have already proven their growing strength at home in Liga 1 with two wins from two home games so they do bring some momentum into this game. They were brought back down to earth with defeat at lowly Kolejarz Stroze last match in what was a rather bad-tempered affair with Gorzow having Wojciechowksi dismissed and he thus misses this game through suspension. However, the hosts are strong at home and were last season too despite drawing more games than they should have done so I do fancy them here, particularly after star striker Emil Drozdowicz has started the season so well. Gorzow are yet to concede a goal at home and I fancy them to be a real force at home this season so they should have enough to win this one today. Gornik Polkowice are a typical newly-promoted side in the sense that they know their boundaries. They’ve lost at a good Podsbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala side but beaten a mediocre Kluczbork side. Polkowice will line up defensively against their experienced hosts but taking points away from home in this league is like trying to piss in the wind; it just doesn’t work. They’re simply not as good as their hosts and the statistics (for a change!) back that up. The odds are a little generous on the home win although that’s probably due to Wielkopolski’s inability to finish sides off at home last season but they look strong enough to do it this time around so the home win looks a good bet for me today.

Verdict: Gorzow Wielkopolski to win at 10/11.

Accumulator fodder:

Velez Sarsfield, Wacker Innsbruck, Chernomorets Burgas, Universidad Catolica, Cibalia Vinkovci, FC Copenhagen, Barcelona Guayaquil, Arsenal, Chelsea, Gillingham, Sillamae Kalev, Levadia Tallinn, PK-35 Helsinki, Toulouse, Stade Rennais, Daugava Daugavpils, Heerenveen, Groningen, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, Libertad Asuncion, FK Nizhnyi Novgorod, Shakhtar Donetsk.