Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
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I like Werder Bremen, but they’re annoying me at the moment. They’re just not doing enough in front of goal to win games, whether it’s through rushed finishing, or whether they’re not breaking teams down well enough. I don’t think that losing against Borussia Moenchengladbach is a particularly unacceptable result, but I do think that not scoring against them is verging upon being a criminal offence.
Their problem today is that Mainz 05 are not a forgiving host. It may not be hard to score against Mainz 05, but it’s very hard to stop them scoring, particularly on their own patch. Only Bayern Munich and Bayer 04 Leverkusen have outscored Mainz 05 at home this season, and most other teams have lost. That type of record has been with Mainz 05 for a number of seasons now – they’re notoriously strong on their own patch.
I love the cohesion and motivation within this Mainz 05 squad. I think that Schmidt has done a really good job here, and I trust them a lot on their own patch as a result. He may have lost star Turkish playmaker Malli during the January transfer window, but Mainz 05 are still playing well at the moment, which goes to show how strong the bond within the squad, and how hard his team works. It also demonstrates that Mainz 05 are not a one-man band! They lost Malli, yes, but they got a good price for him, and have replaced him accordingly by signing Quaison from Palermo, who is a very good player. Frei and Ozuntali are very impressive players too, and with the raw pace and power of Cordoba and De Blasis in attack being joined by clever Bojan, I expect Mainz 05 to continue scoring lots of goals. I am not Bojan’s biggest fan, incidentally – I think that he thinks too much of himself for someone that has little physical strength. However, he may be set to finally impress in a league where physical strength is not a necessity. Let me put it this way; this is the perfect place for him to put himself back on the map, and if he can’t do it at Mainz 05, he can’t do it anywhere.
Werder Bremen have beaten Mainz 05 here before, but they don’t look likely to emulate that today. They’ve got the attacking power to do so in Bartels, Pizarro, Kruse, Junuzovic, and Gnabry, but something isn’t working for Nouri at the moment that was a few months ago. They’re still working hard – that’s one thing you can always trust Werder Bremen to do – but they’re conceding far more than they’re scoring, and that’s never good. Let’s put it this way; Augsburg’s goal-scoring record at home this season was boosted by 33% after facing Werder Bremen lately. Enough said? I think so.
Werder Bremen have to be respected by their opponents because of how quick they are, and how easily they unsettle teams. Strangely enough, the person that I find most effective for them isn’t Gnabry or Kruse, but adventurous full-back, Gebre Selassie. He pops up just about everywhere on the pitch, and he causes teams so many problems as a result. As I said above, though, something is not clicking in the Werder Bremen camp right now, and I don’t know what it is because all of their stars are back. All I can is that whilst they continue to concede more than they score, things will not go too swimmingly for them.
I think this is a very dangerous away game to play ineffectually in, but it looks likely that Werder Bremen are destined to do so. To me, there’s value in the home win.
Verdict: Mainz 05 to win at 19/20.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers vs Sydney FC
Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar
Austrian Bundesliga:
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna
Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker
SCR Altach vs St.Polten
SV Mattersburg vs Wolfsberger AC
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
KV Mechelen vs KSC Lokeren
Mouscron-Peruwelz vs Waasland-Beveren
AS Eupen vs Kortrijk
Zulte-Waregem vs Sint-Truiden
Bulgarian A PFG:
Neftohimik vs Montana
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Levski Sofia
Lokomotiv G.O. vs Botev Plovdiv
Croatian Prva Liga:
Cibalia Vinkovci vs Inter Zapresic
Dinamo Zagreb vs Slaven Koprivnica
Czech Republic Synot Liga:
Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno
Slovacko vs Baumit Jablonec
Slavia Prague vs Vysocina Jihlava
Viktoria Plzen vs Marila Pribram
Danish Superligaen:
Silkeborg vs AC Horsens
English FA Cup:
Burnley vs Lincoln City
Middlesbrough vs Oxford United
Huddersfield Town vs Manchester City
Millwall vs Leicester City
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Chelsea
Finnish Suomen Cup:
GrIFK vs HJK Helsinki
Legirius Inter vs TPS Turku
JJK Jyvaskyla vs Ilves
HauPa vs AC Oulu
HIFK Helsinki vs KTP
Ekenas IF vs IFK Mariehamn
KPV Kokkola vs RoPS Rovaniemi
FC Honka Espoo vs Gnistan
FC Jazz vs SJK
Inter Turku vs P-Iirot
French Ligue 1:
Olympique de Marseille vs Stade Rennais
Lorient vs OGC Nice
Angers SCO vs AS Nancy-Lorraine
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Lille OSC
Metz vs Nantes Atlantique
German Bundesliga:
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
Hertha Berlin vs Bayern Munich
Hoffenheim vs Darmstadt 98
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Ingolstadt
Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg
Hungarian OTP Bank Liga:
Fehervar vs Ujpest
Gyirmot vs Paksi SE
Mezokovesd-Zsory vs Diosgyori VTK
MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved
Debreceni VSC vs Ferencvaros
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Maccabi Haifa
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv vs Hapoel Ra’anana
MS Ashdod vs Bnei Sakhnin
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo vs Crotone
Empoli vs SS Lazio
Dutch Eredivisie:
Twente Enschede vs Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven vs NEC Nijmegen
Heracles Almelo vs Excelsior Rotterdam
FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Chaves vs Arouca
Moreirense vs Estoril
Feirense vs Boavista
Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Rio Ave
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sporting Gijon vs Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid vs RCD Espanyol
Deportivo La Coruna vs Deportivo Alaves
Sevilla CF vs Eibar
Swedish Svenska Cupen:
Vanersborgs FK vs Halmstad
Ostersunds FK vs Varberg
Nykoping vs Hammarby
Orebro vs Atvidaberg
Norrtalje vs BK Hacken Goteborg
IFK Goteborg vs Ljungskile
Ytterhogdal vs Falkenberg
Brommapojkarna vs Helsingborg
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs Thun
Young Boys Bern vs St.Gallen
Swiss Challenge League:
Aarau vs Le Mont
Wil vs FC Zurich
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor vs Karabukspor
Istanbul BB vs Gaziantepspor
Rizespor vs Galatasaray
Enjoy your free betting tips!