Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
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There was me, thinking that the A-League had returned to some state of normality yesterday, huh? I saw Newcastle Jets claim an important three points at Wellington Phoenix and everything went as I expected – the hosts missing good chances because they benched Kaluderovic but making enough mistakes for Newcastle Jets to score. The visitors sat on it too. I was smiling at that point because it made sense. However, I was not smiling for long as Sydney FC somehow capitulated against Brisbane Roar with a half-hearted display, shipping two goals from set pieces. Losing at home against Brisbane Roar is totally unacceptable. Let us hope that it was simply a flash in the pan for this weekend’s A-League action because I really like the idea of Melbourne Victory winning today’s game convincingly.
They’ve done well lately, Melbourne Victory, even in the Asian Champions League. They’ve hammered rivals Adelaide United and then won at Melbourne City in their local derby so their fans and players should both be confident at the moment. They’re not missing any important players today, although marauding full-back Geria has left to go and play in Japan so that will have some impact in due course. For now, though, I am not concerned. Melbourne Victory tend to be good at home, and they tend to find ways to beat Central Coast Mariners too.
The reason I trust Melbourne Victory right now is because they’ve got some fine match-winners in attack. Berisha might be a dick but he’s one hell of a battering ram to play against. With a naturally gifted winger like George to his left, rapid Barbarouses to his right, and players like Antonis and Troisi supporting, Melbourne Victory will score goals against most teams. They look a lot better now than they did at the start of the season and that’s good because they really need to. This is the business end of the season, and they need to be playing well not only to make the finals but to give themselves a decent chance of winning them. Fortunately for them, they’ve got one of the most comprehensive head-to-head records against the Mariners that I have seen at this level so I really don’t have a good reason to doubt the hosts today.
Helpfully, Central Coast Mariners are in a position whereby they’ve got to win if they’ve any faint thoughts of making the finals themselves. Draws are no more use as they’re ten points adrift with five points remaining so a win is paramount for Okon’s boys today, even if it’s just to prevent them from stumbling in the battle to avoid the wooden spoon.
The problem Central Coast Mariners are going to have here is that Dutch midfielder Hiariej is absent. It was bad enough that they let Spanish striker Asrubal leave without replacing him and winger Appiah leave without bringing in another alternative but now they’re missing one of their three “heartbeats” of the team the other two of which are Brama and de Silva. Brama and Hiariej run everything from central midfield whereas de Silva is the roaming playmaker because he’s got the best vision and technique in the squad. It’s him who plays the cute balls out wide to speedsters like Buhagiar, Pain, and Hoole. However, they no longer have a reliable striker to score goals (even if Asdrubal wasn’t at his best during his stint in Australia, he was still their best option) and they’re missing Hiariej as one of their enforcers, which means they’re not going to be able to control this game well. Sure, they’ll have opportunities on the break because they’re fast but if they fall behind – and I suspect that they will – then I find it hard to envision them getting back into this one.
The visitors cannot afford to be too cautious here so I think there’s enough scope for Melbourne Victory to clear the -1 Asian Handicap today, hence the tip.
Verdict: Melbourne Victory to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 99/100.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Argentinian Superliga:
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Patronato
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Velez Sarsfield
Estudiantes de la Plata vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza
Atletico Tucuman vs Boca Juniors
River Plate vs Belgrano de Cordoba
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs Austria Vienna
Bulgarian A PFG:
CSKA Sofia vs Levski Sofia
Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Etar vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Osijek vs Hajduk Split
Rijeka vs Cibalia Vinkovci
Czech Republic HET Liga:
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice
Zlin vs Viktoria Plzen
Danish Superligaen:
Brondby vs Hobro
FC Helsingor vs FC Nordsjaelland
FC Midtjylland vs SonderjyskE
AGF Aarhus vs Aalborg BK
Lyngby vs AC Horsens
Silkeborg vs FC Copenhagen
Randers vs OB Odense
English FA Cup:
Wigan Athletic vs Southampton
Leicester City vs Chelsea
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Nomme Kalju vs Tammeka
Finnish Suomen Cup:
HJK Helsinki vs VPS Vaasa
Haka Valkeakoski vs FC Lahti
French Ligue 1:
OGC Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain
Metz vs Nantes Atlantique
AS Saint-Etienne vs En Avant Guingamp
Olympique de Marseille vs Olympique Lyonnais
German Bundesliga:
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Hannover 96
Koln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Ra’anana
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa
Italian Serie A:
Sampdoria vs Internazionale
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta Bergamo
Benevento vs Cagliari
AC Milan vs Chievo Verona
Torino vs ACF Fiorentina
Crotone vs AS Roma
SS Lazio vs Bologna
SSC Napoli vs Genoa
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Trakai vs Palanga
Dutch Eredivisie:
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
NAC Breda vs Roda JC Kerkrade
PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Rotterdam
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Tromso vs Stromsgodset
Haugesund vs Molde FK
Brann Bergen vs Bodo/Glimt
Valerenga Oslo vs Odd
Portuguese Liga 1:
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Desportivo Aves
Moreirense vs Belenenses
Chaves vs Sporting Braga
Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Rio Ave
Portuguese Liga 2:
Penafiel vs Santa Clara
Arouca vs Academica de Coimbra
FC Porto II vs Sporting Covilha
Academico Viseu vs Cova Piedade
Leixoes Matosinhos vs Sporting Clube de Portugal II
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Varzim
UD Oliveirense vs Uniao Madeira
SL Benfica II vs Gil Vicente
Spanish Primera Liga:
Leganes vs Sevilla CF
Barcelona CF vs Athletic Club de Bilbao
Villarreal CF vs Atletico Madrid
Celta de Vigo vs Malaga CF
Real Madrid vs Girona
Swiss Super League:
FC Basel vs Sion
Lugano vs Luzern
Thun vs Lausanne Sport
Swiss Challenge League:
Vaduz vs FC Schaffhausen
Turkish Super Lig:
Alanyaspor vs Goztepe
Konyaspor vs Kayserispor
Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor
Istanbul BB vs Besiktas JK
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