Santos vs Sao Paulo
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Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A derby between Santos and Sao Paulo.
I watched the reversal of this fixture earlier in the season. Although Santos shat themselves for the first 20-30 minutes of the game, Sao Paulo still didn’t do much to them. Ironically enough, Sao Paulo only tend to look good when being attacked. They’re actually quite poor at breaking teams down.
In true football fashion, Sao Paulo only managed to take the lead when Santos were actually getting into the game and controlling things better. Admittedly, Santos themselves weren’t actually getting anywhere but one cross and a header from Souza was enough to secure three points for Sao Paulo in the derby. Santos had a couple of good chances before the end but ultimately, Sao Paulo deserved the points because Santos didn’t do enough to them.
Since then, however, Santos have finally cottoned on to the fact that there’s no point in having great strikers if you don’t have any creators. That’s basically what their early season approach was all about, hence them failing so badly. I’d like to think that Santos realised that before they were positioned just outside the relegation zone in Serie A but perhaps that’s just wishful thinking on my part as they’re a really stubborn club in general.
However, whatever the reasoning, Santos have been really bloody smart over the past two months. Seriously smart. I knew they needed to bring in creators but – cards on the table – I didn’t think they’d be able to get someone like Derlis Gonzalez to play for them. The tricky Paraguayan winger is far too good for this level of football, and I am baffled at him donning the black-and-white here. Nonetheless, he’s one hell of an asset for Santos. Then they managed to get Bryan Ruiz too – wow! Sometimes a bit lazy, I grant you, but one hell of a classy playmaker. Those two signings along catapult Santos into a top four team, in my view, because the goals are already there in Gabriel Barbosa, Rodrygo, and even Sasha.
So – now Santos have creators as well as goal-scorers. You know what else they’ve done well? They changed managers. I’m not normally a huge advocate of such because Brazilian clubs do it a lot. However, since Cuca came in, Santos have looked really bloody sharp. They’ve actually started keeping clean sheets via tactical intelligence (well, it sure as hell isn’t because of their “strong back four”!). When you fuse that with the natural attacking power that they possess, the results are impressive.
Now, for tonight’s derby, Santos do have one complication in that midfield beast Sanchez is injured. That means that containing the likes of Souza will be challenging, to say the least. However, I have faith in Cuca and his boys doing a job on Sao Paulo tactically so it shouldn’t matter. Sao Paulo are no mugs, though. They’ll make Santos sweat for the points here.
They may be a bit boring, Sao Paulo, but they don’t lose many games. They’ve got a number of experienced players in their ranks to keep things ticking along nicely, and a couple of good finishers to boot. It’s a bit frustrating to watch them play the way that they do, knowing that they’re a side which produces playmakers via their academy with alarming ease, but if it works, it works. I don’t think it will work tonight, though. This isn’t the Santos they met earlier in the season. If they let them get comfortable on the ball, they’ll lose the game; that’s my perspective.
It’s always dangerous to bet on derbies, guys and girls – you should know that by now. However, I find odds of 7/5 on Santos winning this game to be too long, bearing in mind the squad that they have. I’d stick my neck on the chopping block to say that they’d be top of the table if they’d started the current campaign with this squad. To me, Santos are more than capable of outscoring Santos, so I’m taking the home win here.
Verdict: Santos to win at 7/5.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Argentinian Superliga:
Patronato vs Gimnasia de la Plata
Velez Sarsfield vs San Martin Tucuman
Union de Santa Fe vs Talleres de Cordoba
Atletico Lanus vs Racing Club Avellaneda
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs San Lorenzo de Almagro
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Mattersburg vs LASK Linz
Wolfsberger AC vs Wacker Innsbruck
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Royal Excel Mouscron vs Kortrijk
Antwerp vs Zulte-Waregem
AA Gent vs Sint-Truiden
Brazilian Serie A:
Cruzeiro vs Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense
Bahia vs Palmeiras
Santos vs Sao Paulo
Botafogo vs America Mineiro
Corinthians vs Sport Recife
Bulgarian A PFG:
Slavia Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia
Croatian Prva Liga:
Slaven Koprivnica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rijeka vs NK Osijek
Czech Republic HET Liga:
Dukla Prague vs Slovan Liberec
Baumit Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav
Teplice vs Karvina
Slovacko vs Slavia Prague
Danish Superligaen:
Vendsyssel vs Hobro
AC Horsens vs AGF Aarhus
Brondby vs SonderjyskE
FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen
English Premier League:
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Burnley
Everton vs West Ham United
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Tulevik vs FCI Levadia Tallinn
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik
EB/Streymur vs Vikingur Gotu
TB/FCS/Royn vs AB Argir
07 Vestur Sorvagur vs B36 Torshavn
Skala vs KI Klaksvik
French Ligue 1:
Nantes Atlantique vs Stade de Reims
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Nimes Olympique
Olympique de Marseille vs En Avant Guingamp
German Bundesliga:
Werder Bremen vs Nurnberg
SC Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga 2:
Koln vs Paderborn 07
VfL Bochum vs Ingolstadt
Erzgebirge Aue vs St. Pauli
Icelandic Pepsideild:
UMF Grindavik vs Fjolnir Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur
KR Reykjavik vs Keflavik
Valur Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Israeli Ha’al:
Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Netanya
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa
Italian Serie A:
AS Roma vs Chievo Verona
Genoa vs Bologna
Juventus vs Sassuolo
Udinese vs Torino
Empoli vs SS Lazio
Cagliari vs AC Milan
Italian Serie B:
Hellas Verona vs Carpi
Salernitana vs Padova
Foggia vs Palermo
Dutch Eredivisie:
AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord Rotterdam
Heerenveen vs Heracles Almelo
FC Utrecht vs BV Emmen
NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard
PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse Arnhem
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Start Kristiansand vs Lillestrom
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt
Ranheim vs Stromsgodset
Sarpsborg 08 vs Odd
Tromso vs Stabaek
Valerenga Oslo vs Rosenborg BK
Russian Premier League:
FK Orenburg vs Zenit St. Petersburg
Anzhi Makhachkala vs FK Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat Grozny
Spanish Primera Liga:
Leganes CF vs Villarreal CF
RCD Espanyol vs Levante
Real Valladolid vs Deportivo Alaves
Sevilla CF vs Getafe
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Norrkoping vs AIK Solna
IFK Goteborg vs Elfsborg Boras
Djurgarden vs Brommapojkarna
Swiss Schweizer Pokal:
Moutier vs Thun
Stade Nyonnais vs Grasshopper Zurich
Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax
Fleurier vs SC Kriens
Klingau vs Chiasso
Muri vs St. Gallen
Lausanne Sport vs Sion
Turkish Super Lig:
Sivasspor vs BB Erzurumspor
Istanbul BB vs Antalyaspor
Rizespor vs Bursaspor
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahce
Enjoy your free betting tips!