Paris Saint-Germain vs Auxerre
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Ligue 1 encounter between moneybags Paris Saint-Germain and Auxerre.
The hosts have already indicated that their priority is qualifying for the UEFA Champions League next season, hence resting players for their UEFA Europa League games in favour of their Ligue 1 games, just as they did for the game earlier this week at Salzburg. They’re on a bit of a poor run, PSG, and they need to pick themselves up quickly as Montpellier HSC are showing no signs of slowing down. PSG are without a win in four games although I do feel it’s worthwhile noting that three of those games were away from home. At home, it’s a different story, usually – they’ve won six out of their last seven home games and have beaten the -1 Asian Handicap in their last three home wins so there is a foundation for this bet. PSG still have a lot of integrating to do within their squad to become the force that they long to be but they’ve settled well, to their credit, and they are starting to look strong. For this game, they miss the brilliance of Pastore and the pace of Menez, both of whcih are sizable blows. They miss the experience of Lugano in the centre of defence too, as well as midfielder Chantome. However, the former two are bigger blows, in my view, and it means that PSG will need the best out of Gameiro and Nene in order to win this one. To be fair, both are experienced in Ligue 1 and tend to provide a great attacking threat and I expect them to duly oblige today.
Visitors Auxerre are not in great form either with five losses from their last six Ligue 1 games. Last season (and before that) you could generally bank on Auxerre showing up, sitting deep in an attempt to not concede, and trying to nick a counter-attack goal. That works sometimes but when you’re not in-form, it really doesn’t work out at all. Auxerre aren’t in-form right now either, which doesn’t aid their plight one iota. They’ve shipped five goals over their last two away games in Ligue 1 and have conceded a minimum of two goals in four out of their last five losses. That’s the way to beat Auxerre, really – get the first goal, force them out of their defensive tactics, and rip them to shreds as they’re not a good attacking side at all. Their attack is effectively whatever Alain Traore decides to make it with Oliech providing the only real goal threat with Sahar and Le Tallec being used more as engines than goalscorers at the moment. There’s experience in this Auxerre side so it’s wise not to underestimate this side, especially as most Ligue 1 sides struggle to break down such approaches. However, I don’t see PSG struggling to do that today and subsequently I expect another long night for Auxerre.
PSG not winning this game would surprise me, hence the insurance side of the bet. I think they’ve got a good chance of beating the handicap as Auxerre aren’t playing well, are clumsy defensively against good sides, and because Auxerre aren’t a goalscoring side. PSG have their absentees but they’ve got enough firepower to beat the -1 Asian Handicap today, in my view.
Verdict: Paris Saint-Germain to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Ethnikos Achnas vs Aris Limassol – away win with draw no bet at 8/5.
I wouldn’t often go against Ethnikos Achnas at home last season and I don’t think I will be doing it often this season either. They’re just a very hard side to break through and to “conquer”, so to speak. However, as always, I have my reasons for taking this one today!
Any fool can tell you that Ethnikos Achnas are where they are in the table because they aren’t scoring goals – the league table indicates that quite clearly. Their displays aren’t bad – many sides find it hard to score against them – but they’re not good in front of goal. They were decent in front of goal last season because Brazilian hitman Gelson was scoring goals but he’s no longer with the club and their remaining strikers are crap. Effectively, Ethnikos Achnas are hoping their experienced midfield can generate something magical in order to win games. Sometimes it’ll work, and sometimes it won’t, but as the league table shows – they’ve already lost four out of six at home this season so all is not what it needs to be in order for them to beat the drop. I’d be very concerned if I was a fan of theirs right now because I can’t see where their goals are coming from this season at all.
Visitors Aris have impressed me a lot since promotion. They’ve really put themselves about, especially against the bigger sides, and they’ve been very hard to beat as a result. They’re unbeaten in six consecutive games now, one of which included a 2-2 draw at giants Anorthosis Famagusta (despite having ten men for a long period of the game), a 1-1 draw with difficult AEK Larnaca, and a 2-0 win against local rivals Apollon Limassol last match. Aris need to win the odd game away from home to ensure that they’re in the division next year but so far they’ve looked very determined and have demonstrated great cohesion. They were clever pre-season though, Aris – they signed proven strikers with experience in this division to help them beat the drop and it’s working. One of them is Argentinian striker Gonzalez, who was previously with AEL Limassol, and other is rather amusingly Gelson, who was Ethnikos Achnas’ main striker last season! Subsequently, Gelson knows Aris’ opponents today rather well and he may be the key link in Aris breaking through a stiff Ethnikos Achnas resolve.
This is going to be a very tight game but for me, Aris are priced too long here. I don’t see them losing this game unless they play catastrophically and they’ve got enough firepower to score here and hold it so my call is the away win with draw no bet cover.
Verdict: Aris Limassol to win with draw no bet at 8/5.
Nordsjaelland vs Midtylland – home win at 6/5.
Nordsjaelland have already won this fixture 1-0 earlier in the season – can it happen again? I think so.
There’s not much between these two sides but Nordsjaelland have looked very impressive, in my view. They’ve been ruthlessly efficient both at the back and in front of goal and seven wins from nine home games demonstrates that perfectly. My one complaint of Nordsjaelland is that they don’t take their chances often enough but it’s a small complaint given how well they’re playing. Midtylland are a little too lax defensively, especially away from home, and that tends to underpin their overall attacking display as they don’t really have the firepower to outscore all the sides in the Superligaen – just some of them. They couldn’t break through Nordsjaelland last time and the same is not impossible this time, either. For me, taking the home win at 6/5 is worth a punt here.
Verdict: Nordsjaelland to win at 6/5.
Lyngby vs AC Horsens – away win at 9/10.
Every time I see Lyngby, I’m reminded at just how bad they are and how much worse they’re actually becoming. They’ve got no ability anywhere on the park and I’m not even exaggerating! I mean, they’ve got experience in ex-Brondby attacker Madsen and Canadian playmaker Bernier but there’s little else. In fact, had it not been for the emergence of young Emil Larsen then I’m confident that Lyngby would be rooted to the bottom of the table. There’s very little to get excited about when you look at this team and although their form has improved lately, I cannot take this side seriously, especially as the only two games that they’ve not lost out of their last five home games have been against AGF Aarhus and HB Koge respectively a.k.a. the sides that were promoted this season. They concede goals far too easily and if they stay up then it’ll be a miracle, in my view.
AC Horsens have impressed me a lot as a unit this season. They play good, attractive football and score goals. The reasoning behind that is Toft and Gilberto’s link-up strength in attack and they’ve fired Horsens to victory more times than not this season. This side still has a lot to learn, of course – they’re a tad naive with their all-out-attack approach – but they can outscore a lot of sides and it’s shown this season. They don’t fear any side and why should they? Only FC Copenhagen in this division are untouchable nowadays and under their manager Nilsson they look anything but untouchable so I’ll give Horsens their due respect here.
This fixture was played out earlier this season and it ended 1-1. I expect Horsens to use their two-game winning streak as a platform to build upon and win today against a side that they’re frankly better than.
Verdict: AC Horsens to win at 9/10.
Chievo Verona vs Atalanta Bergamo – away win with draw no bet at 7/5.
I don’t usually like backing sides to win in Verona because Chievo are such a tough side to face. They’re real battlers and tend to be very well-organised. However, there’s a confidence in the Atalanta ranks that I haven’t seen before and I’m almost certain that it stems from the impressive midfield that they now possess with Bonaventura and Cigarini reportedly attracting interest from all over Europe and with ex-Velez Sarsfield playmaker Maxi Moralez pulling the strings, which has turned average Argentinian striker Denis into something of a hero for the Bergamo outfit with ten goals in twelve Serie A apperances. They’ve got Italy U21 start Gabbiadini to call upon too so let’s not underestimate just how good Atalanta are right now. They play with real spirit, Atalanta – that was what I always liked about them. However, their Achilles heel has long been their temperamental nature (e.g. easily obtaining red cards) and their inability to defend under pressure. I don’t expect their defence to be an issue here though as I don’t rate Chievo’s attack and I don’t think they can pressurise Atalanta sufficiently to cause damage here. The only way Atalanta can ruin a potential three points here is if they don’t show up or have a man sent off – other than that, the minimum they should attain against goal-shy Chievo is a draw. To put into perspective as to just how good Atalanta have been this season (irrespective of their league placing) consider that the only side to score more goals away from home in Serie A this season than they have is Lazio. For me, taking Atalanta to win this one with draw no bet looks worth it today.
Verdict: Atalanta Bergamo to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar – away win at 6/5.
I don’t usually take AZ to win away from Alkmaar but I feel like I have to for this game. Heerenveen are a dour home side with little to no adventure in their ranks, hence drawing the vast majority of their home games this season. It’s strange, really – one minute you have Narsingh, Assaidi, and Dost setting the Eredivisie alight with their attacking power and the next minute they’re little more than a distant memory with Heerenveen playing simply woeful football, especially against RKC Waalwijk lately. I don’t doubt the potential of this side but they’re not playing well and they can’t defend so I fear for them here. After all, AZ are the better side and have demonstrated it on numerous occasions this season. Remarkably, they’ve done it despite parting with some key players pre-season but their cohesion is so strong that they simply carry on, destroying any side in their way. Rasmus Elm is in immense form, as is Brett Holman, although AZ fans may be a little upset with the rumours that he’ll be leaving the club after contract talks stalled. Maher has a lot of potential and striker Altidore is someone I’ve always liked – it’s nice to see him demonstrating his ability after being a good run in the first-team. This AZ side has everything it needs to win this game today and is efficient enough to get it so the away win at 6/5 appeals to me here.
Verdict: AZ Alkmaar to win at 6/5.
Rapid Bucharest vs Sportul Studentesc – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
There was a collective shrug of the shoulders everywhere when Pandurii inexplicably beat Rapid 3-0 in the last round of Liga fixtures as Pandurii missed half their team and weren’t playing particularly well whereas Rapid were playing well and are frankly a better side. To put into perspective the magnitude of that outcome, that result means that Rapid have now doubled the amount of goals that they’ve conceded on the road this season!
However, this is the ideal game for them to bounce back in, in my opinion. There’s no doubting the quality in their ranks – they’ve got one of the best squads in the division – so they really should make it count here. Rapid have always, always been more comfortable in destroying sides at home rather than on the road and their record of five wins and two draws in seven home games this season backs that up. They average scoring over two goals per home game and are frankly a lot better than their opponents today, in my view, especially with the likes of old hand Pancu in their ranks.
Sportul work hard but bring little else to the table. There’s no firepower in their side and they’re little more than cannon fodder away from home. They’ve already lost five out of seven on the road this season whilst averaging conceding over two goals per away game. Their record at home would be similar if they had encountered good sides more often but their home fixtures have been quite kind to them. Their statistics speak for themselves, however – every time they’ve played a good side away from home this season, they’ve lost – and usually lost heavily. Their sole win came at Concordia Chiajna, who are one of the few sides in this division worse than they are! Absolutely nothing about this squad impresses me and I think it’ll be a case of Christians to the lions today.
For me, if Rapid show up then this should be a cricket score so the home win with a -1.5 handicap appeals to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Rapid Bucharest to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Real Sociedad vs Malaga – home win with draw no bet at 6/5.
It sure looks to me like the bookies have really, really underestimated Real Sociedad’s ability when playing at home here.
Ok, so the Basque hosts are just outside the drop zone so something is going wrong somewhere. In this instance, it’s their ability to score goals that is harming them. However, let’s look at the fact that only two sides have won at Anoeta this season and that’s league leaders Real Madrid with a narrow 0-1 win and bitter rivals Athletic Club de Bilbao in the Basque derby. Nobody else, including Barcelona, has won here because they’re not an easy side to face in San Sebastian. Away from home, Real Sociedad really tend to suffer but I would never underestimate the hosts as much as the odds today have – they’re more than capable of springing a surprise or two and it wouldn’t be for the first time, either. I mean, they claimed a strange 2-3 win at Real Betis Balompie last time out and they’ve already bagged two goals from the half-way line this season so this side is very much capable of the unexpected, I assure you! They need to give Llorente more game time, in my view – he’s their only natural goalscorer since they sold Tamudo and wonderkid Griezmann needs someone to work with as Vela isn’t really doing enough, impressive though he is, albeit somewhat sporadically. There’s plenty of energy, creativity, and experience in midfield and plenty of experience at the back too, although they’re occasionally a little complacent. However, their flaws are much more visible on the road than they are at home and I expect a strong display from the determined hosts here, especially after their win in Andaluscia.
Visitors Malaga undoubtedly have a wealth of talent and it’s important to respect that, of course. Their run of form lately makes them look very strong indeed, in fact, and I can understand people backing them on the back of that. Well, that and their names, of course – a lot of people find it easier to back sides when they’ve heard of their players, don’t they? The likes of Cazorla and van Nistelrooy are world-class players and they do give Malaga the class that they’re seeking to be a part of. However, Malaga’s displays lately have not impressed me. I appreciate that that’s a small factor as they’ve been getting the wins but I’m always concerned about sides that are winning without playing well because they’re never far away from a bad result and I think this could be one of those times for Malaga. The likes of Eliseu are real threats with driving runs down the flanks but in terms of creating and finishing in the final third, Malaga really don’t do much for me and I don’t rate their chances here as a result. Malaga have only managed to score in one out of their last five Primera Liga away games and although they arguably possess a better class of player than Sociedad, I don’t think it’ll matter in a packed Anoeta.
There’s risk in this one, obviously, but there’s risk in all bets, really. I’d be very surprised to see Malaga demonstrate the composure that they need to win this game at what is a very difficult venue for all Primera Liga sides. For me, taking the home win with draw no bet cover is almost always worth taking for Sociedad when it’s priced as generously as 6/5.
Verdict: Real Sociedad to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Anderlecht, Paris Saint-Germain, AEK Athens, Juventus, Guarani Asuncion, Rapid Bucharest, Metalist Kharkiv, Danubio.
Recommended bets:
Paris Saint-Germain -1 AH, Anderlecht, and Juventus at around 9/5.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Independiente vs Newell’s Old Boys (7) 1-0
Belgrano de Cordoba vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (6) 1-1
Boca Juniors vs Banfield (8) 2-0
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart vs Wellington Phoenix (7) 2-1
Sydney FC vs Brisbane Roar (5) 1-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wacker Innsbruck vs Sturm Graz (6) 1-1
Wiener Neustadt vs Salzburg (5) 0-1
Belarusian Play-Off:
VItebsk vs Partizan Minsk (4) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs OH Leuven (8) 2-0
Standard de Liege vs AA Gent (6) 1-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Corinthians vs Palmeiras (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Sao Paulo vs Santos (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Internacional vs Gremio (4) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Cruzeiro vs Atletico Mineiro (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro (5) 1-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba (5) 2-2
Bahia vs Ceara (7) 1-0
Avai vs Figueirense (6) 1-1
Botafogo vs Fluminense (4) 0-1
Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo (5) 2-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Union La Calera vs Cobreloa (6) 1-0
Union Espanola vs Universidad de Chile (6) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
Envigado vs Millonarios Bogota (6) 1-1
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Itagui Ditaires (7) 1-0
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hajduk Split vs Zadar (7) 1-0
Osijek vs Istra 1961 (6) 1-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Nea Salamis vs Alki (7) 2-0
Ethnikos Achnas vs Aris Limassol (5) 0-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Viktoria Zizkov vs Marila Pribram (6) 1-2
Ceske Budejovice vs Dukla Prague (6) 1-1
Hradec Kralove vs Teplice (6) 2-1
Danish Superligaen:
Nordsjaelland vs Midtylland (7) 2-1
HB Koge vs Brondby (6) 1-1
Lyngby vs AC Horsens (7) 0-1
FC Copenhagen vs AGF Aarhus (7) 2-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente (7) 2-0
Imbabura vs Emelec Guayaquil (7) 1-2
Manta vs Deportivo Quito (7) 0-2
El Nacional Quito vs LDU Loja (6) 2-1
Liga de Quito vs Olmedo Riobamba (6) 2-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Espoli Cayambe (7) 2-0
English Premier League:
Everton vs Stoke City (7) 2-0
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Sunderland (5) 1-0
English Championship:
Cardiff City vs Birmingham City (6) both sides to score
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (5) 1-0
Paris Saint-Germain vs Auxerre (8) 2-0
Olympique Lyonnais vs Toulouse (7) 2-1
German Bundesliga:
Hamburger SV vs Nurnberg (6) 2-1
Schalke 04 vs Augsburg (7) 1-0
Greek Super League:
AEK Athens vs Kerkyra (8) 2-0
Doxa Dramas vs Xanthi (6) 0-0
PAS Giannina vs PAOK Salonika (5) 0-1
Levadiakos vs Panionios (6) 1-1
Aris Salonika vs Panathinaikos (6) 1-0
Italian Serie A:
Catania vs Cagliari (7) 2-0
Bologna vs Siena (6) 1-0
Chievo Verona vs Atalanta Bergamo (5) 1-2
Fiorentina vs AS Roma (6) 1-1
Juventus vs Cesena (8) 2-0
Parma vs Palermo (6) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Vitesse Arnhem vs RKC Waalwijk (7) 2-0
FC Utrecht vs Twente Enschede (6) 1-1
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar (6) 1-2
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
General Caballero vs Sol de America (6) 1-0
Guarani Asuncion vs Independiente FBC (8) 2-0
Tacuary vs Rubio Nu (7) 1-0
3 de Febrero vs Sportivo Luqueno (6) 2-1
Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno (5) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Peruvian Primera Division:
Alianza Lima vs Sport Boys (7) 2-0
Universidad Cesar Vallejo vs Juan Aurich (6) 1-1
Union Comercio vs Universitario Lima (5) 0-1
Alianza Atletico vs Melgar FBC (7) 2-0
Sporting Cristal vs Sport Huancayo (6) 1-0
Cobresol vs CNI (5) 1-0
Cienciano vs Leon de Huanuco (7) 2-0
Inti Gas vs Universidad San Martin (6) 1-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Gornik Zabrze vs Slask Wroclaw (6) 0-0
Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Lodz (7) 2-0
Romanian Liga:
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt vs Targu Mures (5) 0-1
Concordia Chiajna vs Gaz Metan Medias (6) 1-1
Vaslui vs Otelul Galati (6) 1-0
Rapid Bucharest vs Sportul Studentesc (8) 2-0
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee United vs Celtic (6) 1-2
Serbian Superliga:
Hajduk Kula vs Sevojno (6) 1-1
Rad Belgrade vs Red Star Belgrade (4) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Triglav vs Domzale (5) 1-1
Mura 05 vs Nafta Lendava (6) 1-2
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Gorica (7) 2-0
Celje vs Koper (6) 1-0
Maribor vs Rudar Velenje (7) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (7) 1-0
Real Sociedad vs Malaga (6) 1-0
Osasuna vs Real Betis Balompie (6) 2-1
Real Mallorca vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (6) 1-1
Granada vs Real Zaragoza (5) 2-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Cordoba vs Alcoyano (7)
Real Valladolid vs Deportivo La Coruna (6)
Swiss Super League:
Grasshopper Zurich vs Thun (6) 1-1
Servette vs FC Zurich (5) 1-2
Young Boys Bern vs Sion (7) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Chiasso vs Bellinzona (7)
Delemont vs Bruhl (6)
SC Kriens vs Etoile Carouge (5)
Locarno vs Aarau (6)
Wohlen vs Lugano (6)
Vaduz vs Wil (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor vs Karabukspor (6) 1-0
Kayserispor vs Istanbul BB (6) 1-1
Mersin Idmanyurdu vs Manisaspor (6) 2-1
Bursaspor vs Eskisehirspor (5) 0-0
Ukrainian Premier League:
Illichivets Mariupol vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (6) 1-2
Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty Lviv (6) 2-1
Metalist Kharkiv vs Volyn Lutsk (8) 2-0
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Liverpool Montevideo vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (6) 1-1
Danubio vs Bella Vista (8) 2-0
Cerro vs Racing Club Montevideo (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!