AA Gent vs Westerlo
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Eerste Klasse game between Gent and Westerlo.
Although capable of occasionally self-destructing, Gent have been one of the more reliable and impressive sides in the Eerste Klasse this season with a string of strong attacking displays. Six wins from nine home games whilst averaging scoring over two goals per home game is impressive enough for me. Interestingly enough, most of Gent’s firepower seems to come from their midfield with Thijs and Jorgensen scoring more goals this season than any of their strikers. I mean, I like Zlatan Ljubljankic and Elimane Coulibaly and I even have time for El Ghanassy. However, they’re all rather predictable and none of them are what I would call “gifted finishers” and thus you’ll see games from time to time where Gent lose 0-1 if their opponent defends well. However, Gent’s strength comes from their ability to pick sides off on the counter-attack. Once Gent get that first goal, sides find it very hard to get back in the game. In fact, every time that Gent have taken the lead in an Eerste Klasse game this season, they’ve gone on to win the game, thus backing up my point. It may take Gent a while to break through but when they do, there’s usually a couple more to follow.
Helpfully, Westerlo are not in a position whereby they’d sit back and attempt to enforce damage limitation if they do fall behind. Their performances have improved lately and a 3-1 win against Germinal Beerschot last time out will have done their confidence the world of good. However, they’re still in the bottom two of the table because they cannot score goals with any degree of consistency. They’ve lost six times in eight Eerste Klasse away games this season, averaging conceding nearly two goals per game. They average scoring just one goal per every four away games, shockingly, which backs up the above point. It’s quite a surprising statistic, really – Arbeitman is a good striker, in my view. Dekelver, Acheampong, and Liliu are decent strikers on their day so I suppose we can attribute Westerlo’s ineffectual away displays to a lack of support from their midfield, which is highly probable as they’ve chopped and changed their midfielders for most of this season. Westerlo have never been a side with much ability in defence either so things don’t look too great for them here.
For me, the -1.5 handicap for Gent is worth looking at here. They’ll either clear the handicap against a side that they’re considerably better than or will lose a stupid 0-1 game; it just depends which Gent shows up. However, at 4/5, given how badly Westerlo have played on the road this season, the -1.5 handicap interests me a lot here.
Verdict: AA Gent to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Lokeren vs Sint-Truiden – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
This is one of those that will either be superb or totally blow up in my face. You see, I have an awful lot of faith in Lokeren because I know how good they can be. The problem this season has been that they’ve rarely shown it, especially at home. However, this is the ideal game for them to turn it around and I really think that they will.
Lokeren have had some injury problems this season that have damaged their potent attack e.g. Finnbogason but with De Ceulaer, Tembe, and Harbaoui in their ranks, you know that goals can and will come. Their midfield is experienced and able and their defence is starting to cement again. For me, Lokeren are a top six side in this division every year with the quailty in their ranks; Maes’ team just needs the platform on which to show it to get some momentum going.
Visitors Sint-Truiden are the perfect side for Lokeren today, in my view. I mean, they never do well away from their artificial turf anyway, hence losing six out of nine away games already this season whilst averaging conceding two goals per away game. It’s that kind of form that has left Sint-Truiden rooted firmly to the foot of the table. Let’s be realistic here – the only played in this side that can score goals is Iranian hotshot Ghoochannejhad. Aside from that, they’re utterly hopeless up front and given that they’re not really strong anywhere else in their squad, they could and should have big problems here. The sale of Odoi pre-season has left Sint-Truiden’s defence somewhat vulnerable but the big loss was giant Senegalese hitman Sidibe. He complimented Sint-Truiden’s style perfectly with his strength and finesse and they’ve not really replaced him adequately other than to rely on their new Iranian striker whose name I simply do not have the time to type out again. Smetana has been disappointing since moving from Senica and the word “disappointing” actually sums up Sint-Truiden’s squad and season perfectly well, in my view.
Basically, we have an under-achieving side that is light years ahead of their opponents and we have an away side with one good player. For me, Lokeren can turn it on against what is easily one of the worst sides in the Eerste Klasse right now and at 6/5, the -1 Asian Handicap looks a steal here, especially as I thoroughly expect Lokeren to end their winless run today.
Verdict: Lokeren to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile – away win at 6/5.
I have a lot of respect for Cobreloa and the fact that they’re in this final commands a lot of respect. However, I would be lying if I said that I thought they had a chance here as they’re completely out of their depth. Ok, they qualified ahead of Colo Colo in the semi-finals but Colo Colo aren’t the side that they were. Full credit to Cobreloa for taking advantage of that, of course, but there are some sides that they’re not really good enough to take on and Universidad de Chile are one of them, in my view. I mean, Barrios, Trecco, Elizondo, and Schwob have formed a dangerous attack for tonight’s hosts this season and Cobreloa scoring in this game would not surprise me one iota. However, if you check their record this season, they’ve generally lost against sides that are some distance better than they are and that’s what I expect to occur tonight.
Universidad de Chile are simply the best side in Chile right now. Alright, they came unstuck last match but still progressed. I’m not interested in that game, though – there isn’t a bigger derby in Chile than the Universidad de Chile vs Universidad Catolica “El Clasico” so anything can happen there. The red cards didn’t help, either! Quality-wise, though, Universidad de Chile win this game hands-down every time. They’ve got so much firepower (even with their suspensions) that it’s hard to look beyond them winning this game. They’ve beaten some top South American sides this season in the Copa Sudamericana and have arguably been more impressive away from home than they have at home, which is quite fascinating for a South American side, really. They’ve got tremendous potency and that tends to win them games and that’s exactly what I expect to occur in this game.
A win tonight virtually guarantees the title to Universidad de Chile as Cobreloa won’t be winning the reverse leg. Cobreloa are a feisty side and won’t make this easy for Universidad. However, the big challenge for the visitors is to conquer the Atacama Desert, of course, which is where Cobreloa are based in a town called Calama. Temperature is a bit of a problem here for obvious reasons but Universidad have dealt with that kind of challenge so well this season all around the continent that I have to give them a bit of trust here at decent odds of 6/5.
Verdict: Universidad de Chile to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
AA Gent, Liverpool, Manchester United, The New Saints.
Recommended bets:
AA Gent -1.5, Liverpool, and Manchester United at around 8/5.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United vs Brisbane Roar (7) 0-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs Zulte-Waregem (7) 1-0
Kortrijk vs Standard de Liege (5) 2-2
Racing Genk vs Cercle Brugge (7) over 2.5 goals
AA Gent vs Westerlo (8) 2-0
Germinal Beerschot vs Lierse SK (4) 1-1
Lokeren vs Sint-Truiden (7) 2-0
Mechelen vs OH Leuven (6) 1-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Cobreloa vs Unviersdad de Chile (6) 1-2
English Premier League:
Chelsea vs Fulham (7) 2-1
Bolton Wanderers vs Newcastle United (5) 2-1
Liverpool vs Blackburn Rovers (8) 2-0
Manchester United vs Wigan Athletic (9) -1.5 handicap
Sunderland vs Everton (6) 1-0
West Bromwich Albion vs Manchester City (6) 1-2
Stoke City vs Aston Villa (7) 2-0
English Championship:
Watford vs Cardiff City (6)
Derby County vs Leeds United (6)
Millwall vs Portsmouth (6)
Southampton vs Crystal Palace (5)
Leicester City vs Ipswich Town (7)
Reading vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6)
Barnsley vs Blackpool (5)
Nottingham Forest vs Peterborough United (5) both sides to score
Middlesbrough vs Hull City (7)
Burnley vs Doncaster Rovers (7) over 2.5 goals
Coventry City vs Bristol City (5)
Birmingham City vs West Ham United (4)
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Carmarthen Town (6) 2-1
Bala Town vs Airbus UK (6) 2-1
Newtown vs The New Saints (8) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!