Getafe vs Real Madrid
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Madrid derby between Getafe and Real Madrid. Getafe have been something of a feeder club to Real Madrid over the past few years with a decent number of their squad having previously played for their more illustrious opponents. In most leagues, that tends to mean that there’s a very predictable outcome but Getafe take the opposite approach, generally giving Real Madrid a good run for their money in a game that usually has plenty of passion.
For the first time in a while, Getafe actually have some money. Are they going to get a European place because of it? Most probably not, at least for this season. Their squad is a shade thin on the ground but their quality level has increased. It’s just a shame that we’ve not really seen them at full strength this season with Gavilan and Pedro Leon playing barely any games for varying reasons. Diego Castro has done very well since signing from Sporting Gijon pre-season and Venezuelan attacker Fedor and experienced striker Guiza are all threats in front of goal for Getafe. Getafe are never far away from scoring goals alhough they do tend to concede a lot of them, admittedly most of which are on the road.
That should change today, though. Real Madrid score goals at will and that’s ultimately what should win them the Primera Liga title this season. Mourinho has been incredibly smart about bettering Barcelona. He knows that Real Madrid lack the capacity to play football like Barcelona. Barcelona’s football is natural and is bred into their players from a young age, which is something that Real Madrid don’t have and simply cannot buy. So what has Mourinho done? He’s perfected the art of beating everyone else because he knows that sides will stick eleven men behind the ball against Barcelona and they’ll sometimes get a result because as outstanding as Barcelona’s football truly is, they’re still very one-dimensional in the sense that there is no “Plan B” if things aren’t going according to plan. Real Madrid, on the other hand, have plenty of options for all occasions and that’s why they’re pulling away from Barcelona now. They still defend crazily but they score so many goals that it’s not even funny. Real Madrid also have an interesting habit of scoring a lot of goals in this game too!
It’s not “the” Madrid derby but this is still a derby and I do expect cards here as a result. Getafe will give as good as they get and I expect them to score here. I’d be lying if I said I expected anything other than a Real Madrid win, though – it takes a braver man than I am to oppose Real Madrid right now. However, they can be vulnerable at the back despite being outstanding in attack so for me, the best way to approach this game is to take over 3 goals at 11/10, especially given that this tip would have won in six out of the last seven meetings between the two clubs.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 11/10.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Lierse SK vs Standard de Liege – away win at 5/6.
You can expect the odds to jump up and down on this game because the vast majority of people I’ve seen having an opinion about this game are commenting that either Lierse are shit or that Standard are inconsistent. I’d agree with both but I’m backing the away win here and I’ll explain why.
For all their investment, Lierse are still very much a side of individuals without being an actual team. This is particularly evident on the road with their sole strength at home being their ability to frustrate sides. They are good at that, Lierse, but then again, they’ve only really played one good side this season at home in the Eerste Klasse and they lost that game with Club Brugge being the victors on that occasion. Lierse have problems scoring goals so when you do score against them you do stand a pretty good chance of winning the game, in my view. El-Gabbas has been good for them this season but we’ve not really seen enough from old hands Sonck and Huysegems, in my view, both of which are very capable strikers. Their midfield is determined and energetic but somewhat lacking in quality. Their defence is generally quite slow although partially experienced so they can keep some sides out in this division.
Are Standard de Liege one of those sides though? You could make a case for the answer being “yes”, I suppose – they’ve been poor on the road this season. I don’t think Lierse will keep them out here, though. Standard have a good record against Lierse in the Eerste Klasse and will be desperate for revenge following their embarassing exit against today’s hosts in the Belgian Cup a couple of weeks ago. You can tell it made an impact on Riga’s players because they’ve looked good lately. The win against Mons would have been much more comprehensive with a bit more composure and the absence of on-fire Perbet for Mons and the 0-1 win at Cercle Brugge was measured and thus impressive. Standard are deceptively good at defending and thus when they have a lead, they can generally hold it. On the road, they do tend to struggle and that factor has not gone unnoticed prior to making this tip. However, I like the football that Standard are producing right now and given that Cyriac is back, Gakpe looks to be settling well, and Tchite is back for this game, I think Standard will do enough to win this one.
I don’t expect a demolition job like in previous years but I think Standard are good enough to edge this one at 5/6.
Verdict: Standard de Liege to win at 5/6.
Queens Park Rangers vs Wolverhampton Wanderers – home win at 10/11.
I’d not take this tip at anything shorter than 4/5 because QPR aren’t good enough to earn such odds – yet. However, Hughes has done well since being appointed, bringing in a better class of player and giving the players more confidence. Cisse and Zamora are two very experienced Premier League strikers and that gives QPR strength in an area where they had little strength before. Taarabt returns, as does full-back Traore, and thus Hughes’ options are far more plentiful. QPR have looked far stronger going forward of late than they did earlier this season and thus I’ll be giving them more respect in future games, especially when playing at home.
I like Wolves but they’re not in a good place right now. As usual, the fans are protesting against McCarthy being in charge although I don’t really understand why. Will it affect the players? I wouldn’t think so – this is nothing new to them. However, what will affect them is the continued absence of Karl Henry through suspension. He’s not a good player – he’s a thug, if we’re honest – but he does an important job for Wolves that nobody else can do and his absence was like a gaping wound in Wolves’ 0-3 defeat against Liverpool. O’Hara may return to help the Wolves cause today but they’re going to lose the battle in midfield, in my view, and if they do that then they’re going to struggle, even with new signing Bassong likely to start in the middle of defence.
There’s not a great deal between these two sides but I think QPR have enough momentum and firepower to upset a struggling Wolves side. I don’t think Wolves have leadership in the right area to do well enough in this game to avoid defeat and thus the home win at 10/11 is very much on my radar.
Verdict: Queens Park Rangers to win at 10/11.
Norwich City vs Bolton Wanderers – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Are we starting to see Norwich tire a little? I think so – and it was due. I’ll not be taking them to win for a little while whilst I observe them some more.
Norwich are still a good attacking side but they have no depth and thus they will freefall at some point. Lambert is an excellent man-motivator but he’s not God; his players will become jaded sooner or later. Norwich losing 3-0 at under-strength Sunderland was uncharacteristic and disappointing. It was inevitable at some point, of course, but it’ll be interesting to see if/how they bounce back.
At Carrow Road, Norwich have been a nightmare to face this season, though. They play good football and supported by their vociferous crowd, Norwich tend to do the business on their own turf. They know they’re capable of beating Bolton so they should have at least some confidence ahead of this fixture.
However, they’re not the only ones with confidence following Bolton’s impressive display against Arsenal mid-week. It’s amazing what a few new faces around the club can do, isn’t it? They’ve lost their best defender Cahill but signed another defender (Ream) to replace him. They’ve also signed England U21 international Sordell from Watford to bolster their attack but the most impressive signing of all (and the most impressive transfer of the transfer window for my money) was the loan signing of Miyachi from Arsenal. I watched this Japanese winger a lot at Feyenoord Rotterdam last season and God he’s good! If he can produce that kind of form here then Bolton may just have a new saviour. He’s quick, good on the ball, and a typical Arsenal player in the sense that he’s very confident. I think he’ll bring a lot to Bolton’s game that they’ve missed due to the continued absence of Korean winger Lee.
Let’s not forget that Bolton are essentially an attacking side. Give big Ivan Klasnic the service he needs and he’s a lethal finisher; all Bolton need to do is get him in the game. Petrov and Miyachi are good enough to do that, though, and Bolton were very unlucky not to damage Arsenal in the goals fashion in their last game following an enthusiastic display. Bolton used to be notorious for their tenacity – if they rediscover that then they’ve got as good a chance as anyone of avoiding the dreaded drop.
All in all, I’m quite looking forward to this game. I think we’ll see an extremely open game with plenty of goals. I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market for reasons mentioned above but over 2.5 goals looks good at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Real Mallorca vs Real Betis Balompie – home win at 6/5.
Judging by odds movement, I like this one much more than most punters and bookmakers but I’ll explain why I think what I do.
First of all, contrary to their record this season, no side has an easy game in Mallorca. They’re hard to get the ball off and they’re very hard to penetrate. They produced a stroke of genius to bring Joaquin Caparros back from Switzerland because he’s a cracking manager and he knows the Primera Liga inside out. Not many managers know Betis as well as he does, either!
Mallorca’s recent results show that they’ve struggled to score goals. Whereas that’s an undeniable fact, they have played much better football under Caparros and I don’t feel their results of late have reflected how much this side has progressed lately. True enough, this is far more obvious during their home games than their away games but Mallorca have the right mix of creativity and experience to be a threat against side side in this division. Caparros signed Ogunjimi from Genk to bolster his attacking options and that should breathe some life into Mallorca’s attack, although it’ll all depend on Gonzalo Castro in the end either way, as it always does! The Uruguayan winger runs this team from an attacking perspective and if he turns it on then I fancy Mallorca to win this one.
Helpfully, Betis are notoriously bad travellers. It surprises me that this side doesn’t get collective nosebleeds just heading down the coast to Malaga! They’ve already lost seven out of ten on the road this season and it’s largely due to their lack of composure at both ends of the field. Let’s be realistic here – Betis are a Primera Liga club but a lot of their players are Segunda Liga quality. Betis are generally very predictable on the road and I think Mallorca are more than good enough to stop them playing here.
Betis lost at home to Granada in their last game, which makes it three games without a win now. I fancy another tough trip for them here and Mallorca are definitely due a bit of luck based on their displays of late so the home win at 6/5 appeals to me a lot.
Verdict: Real Mallorca to win at 6/5.
Levante vs Racing Santander – away win at 12/5.
Considering that Racing are the worst side in the division, I like this bet far more than I should!
Levante have drastically over-achieved this season and it’s showing in their past few games. Well, I say “few” games – the fact is that they’ve not beaten a Primera Liga side in their last eleven games. Confidence is at rock-bottom and Levante are playing much more like the relegation battlers that they were expected to be at the start of the season than the European candidates that they surprisingly “are” at the moment. I’m willing to accept that Levante have a couple of good players but they’re not a special side and I think we’ll see a glaring example of that here. Hell, Levante have failed to score in three out of their last five Primera Liga games, losing three out of those five games along the way. So yeah – they’re sitting ducks right now.
Can Racing take advantage of that, though? Well, it comforts me that they’re away from home, ironically. I’ve never seen such a poor side play so consistently well on the road. They’re a counter-attacking force, which is baffling when you consider that their only talented attacker is ageing Pedro Munitis, and they’re very well-organised despite not having a particularly good defence. What Racing have – and have always had – is a great team spirit and work ethic and I think that underpins their generally strong displays on the road. Again, they’re not prolific – far from it – but it takes a better display than most assume to beat Racing when they’re playing on the road.
Racing have only lost once in their last five games in all competitions, winning 0-2 in their last away game at Osasuna and drawing 2-2 with Valencia CF in their last match. I think they’ll bring plenty of momentum into this game and they must take something from the game to help them beat the drop. They’ve loaned Senegalese attacker Babacar from Fiorentina to brighten up their attack and despite him being a youngster, there’s still the potential that he could cause an upset here.
I’ll tell you what I think will happen here. I think Racing will take advantage of Levante’s lack of confidence by scoring a goal against the run of play and holding it as they’ve become good at. It’s a long shot, I’m happy to admit, but at 12/5, I think Racing are well worth a flutter here, especially given how weak Levante have been lately.
Verdict: Racing Santander to win at 12/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Barcelona, Real Madrid.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
African Nations:
Zambia vs Sudan (6) 2-1
Equatorial Guinea vs Ivory Coast (6) 0-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes de la Plata vs Banfield (7) 1-0
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar (5) 1-1
Melbourne Heart vs Melbourne Victory (6) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Lierse SK vs Standard de Liege (6) 1-2
Sint-Truiden vs Cercle Brugge (4) 0-1
Zulte-Waregem vs Westerlo (7) 2-0
OH Leuven vs AA Gent (4) 1-1
Lokeren vs Mons (6) 2-1
Mechelen vs Kortrijk (5) 2-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Palestino vs Huachipato (5) 1-0
Santiago Wanderers vs Universidad Catolica (6) 0-1
La Serena vs Universidad de Chile (7) 1-2
Colo Colo vs O’Higgins (7) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
Itagui Ditaires vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 1-1
Deportes Quindio vs Deportivo Pasto (7) 2-0
Deportivo Cali vs Once Caldas Manizales (6) 1-1
Millonarios Bogota vs Atletico Huila (7) 2-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Ethnikos Achnas vs Apollon Limassol (6) 2-1
Enosis Neon Paralimni vs AEK Larnaca (6) 1-1
Aris Limassol vs Anorthosis Famagusta (7) 0-1
English Premier League:
Arsenal vs Blackburn Rovers (7) over 2.5 goals
Norwich City vs Bolton Wanderers (6) 2-1
Queens Park Rangers vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (7) 2-1
Stoke City vs Sunderland (5) 1-1
West Bromwich Albion vs Swansea City (4) 0-1
Wigan Athletic vs Everton (6) 1-1
Manchester City vs Fulham (6) 2-1
English Championship:
West Ham United vs Millwall (5) at least one red card in this game
Middlesbrough vs Crystal Palace (6)
Coventry City vs Ipswich Town (5)
Watford vs Barnsley (6)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leicester City (6)
Cardiff City vs Blackpool (5) both sides to score
Doncaster Rovers vs Reading (4)
Burnley vs Peterborough United (7)
Bristol City vs Leeds United (5) over 2.5 goals
Portsmouth vs Hull City (5)
Birmingham City vs Southampton (6)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
HJK Helsinki vs FC Honka Espoo (7) 2-0
French Ligue 1:
AC Ajaccio vs OGC Nice (5) 1-0
Dijon FCO vs Valenciennes (6) 1-1
Montpellier HSC vs Stade Brestois (7) 2-0
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Stade Rennais (6) 1-1
Paris Saint-Germain vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (6) 2-1
Saint-Etienne vs Lorient (7) 2-0
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Toulouse (5) 1-0
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart (7) 2-1
Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 (4) 1-1
Hoffenheim vs Augsburg (6) 1-0
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (5) 1-1
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Hannover 96 (5) 0-1
Hamburger SV vs Bayern Munich (6) 1-2
Greek Super League:
Ergotelis vs OFI Crete (7) 1-0
Kerkyra vs PAS Giannina (5) 2-1
Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos (6) 0-1
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv vs Ironi Ramat Hasharon (6) 1-0
Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv (5) 1-1
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Maccabi Netanya (4) 0-1
Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva (5) 1-1
Hapoel Acre vs Hapoel Rishon Lezion (7) 2-0
Beitar Jerusalem vs Bnei Sakhnin (5) 1-1
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs MS Ashdod (6) 2-1
Italian Serie A (could be postponed):
Cesena vs Catania (4) 1-0
AS Roma vs Internazionale (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Mexican Primera Division:
Queretaro vs Atlante (6) 1-0
Cruz Azul vs Jaguares (7) 2-0
Monterrey vs San Luis (7) 2-0
Guadalajara vs Morelia (6) 2-1
Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
ADO Den Haag vs AZ Alkmaar (7) 1-2
Excelsior Rotterdam vs VVV Venlo (6) over 2.5 goals
Vitesse Arnhem vs NAC Breda (7) 1-0
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Olimpia Asuncion vs Deportivo Carapegua (7) 2-0
Tacuary vs Rubio Nu (7) 1-0
Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Mallorca vs Real Betis Balompie (7) 1-0
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Espanyol (7) 2-1
Levante vs Racing Santander (4) 0-1
Getafe vs Real Madrid (8) over 2.5 goals
Barcelona vs Real Sociedad (8) 2-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Recreativo de Huelva vs Deportivo La Coruna (6)
Huesca vs Sabadell (4)
Deportivo Xerez vs Alcorcon (6)
Numancia vs Alcoyano (6)
Almeria vs Cordoba (7)
Elche vs Girona (6)
Celta de Vigo vs Real Murcia (7)
Las Palmas vs Guadalajara (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor (6) 1-1
Gaziantepspor vs Galatasaray (4) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!