Siena vs AS Roma
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Serie A encounter between Siena and AS Roma.
Although newly-promoted Siena aren’t much of an away side, they do tend to make their presence felt in their home games. They’ve scored over three times as many goals at home as they have away from home this season, hence them only losing half as many home games as they have away games. In short, take Siena seriously when they’re on their own turf!
Quality-wise, Siena aren’t world-beaters; I think we all know that. Nonetheless, they’ve put in some superb displays at home this season, the most notable of which was their drubbing of AS Roma’s bitter rivals Lazio in a 4-0 demolition. They’ve also beaten SSC Napoli here in their last home game and have held bitter rivals Fiorentina to a 0-0 draw here so let’s give Siena some respect here.
Siena weren’t the most active side in the January transfer window. In fact, they only signed one notable player – big Albanian striker Bogdani. He has plenty of experience in Serie A, which does help them. He’s pretty immobile nowadays but he’s damn good in the air so with the right service, Siena may have made a shrewd move here. Siena also boast Italy U21 attacker Destro and ex-Torino hitman Calaio so there are options up front for the hosts. With D’Agostino in midfield against his former club tonight, you have to expect Siena’s leading midfielder to play to his best and when he plays well, Siena tend to do well. Defensively, Siena’s record is strong although they don’t have too much quality there, in my view. The familiarity between Siena’s defenders and the tenacity they possess is what gives Siena the reputation of being hard to beat and that could well be the case for them today. Number one goalkeeper Brkic is still out for this game, however, and mainstay defender Rossettini is a big doubt so Siena may not be as impregnable as they’d like to be. They can score here, though, and I do think that they will too.
However, AS Roma could punish them simply because they’ve got far better players than Siena. Their form has been patchy of late but you know they’ve got a massive amount of attacking quality in the likes of Totti, Lamela, and Pjanic so Roma can and most likely will score goals.
Defensively, there aren’t many sides in Serie A more vulnerable than Roma, in my view. Ok, so they’ve not had a settled back four with Burdisso’s continual battle with match fitness (and he’s still out today) but they look calamitous at best and subsequently concede a lot of goals. I mean, they lost 4-2 at Cagliari recently. 4-2! Cagliari work hard and do have some good players but if Cagliari are scoring four goals against your team then your team isn’t sound defensively. Roma’s defensive problems should increase today with Daniele De Rossi ruled out and they’ll miss his tenacity in this tricky away game massively, not to mention his composure amidst a side of temperamental players.
Roma do have good enough forwards to punish Siena here, even in the absence of Argentinian striker Osvaldo. Youngster Borini and on-loan Barcelona striker Bojan are good when it suits them and Roma will give them the appropriate service here.
It’d take a braver man than me to enter the 1×2 market here. Roma are still playing as a bunch of individuals with plenty of attacking flair but no defensive ability nor composure. Roma are one of the most likely sides in Serie A to have men dismissed and that doesn’t change here. Subsquently, I can never endorse taking Roma to beat anyone with any degree of confidence. However, they do bring goals to games, either via scoring them or conceding them. Therefore, with the above in mind, and the condemning statistics that Roma have gone over 2.5 goals in three out of their last five games, I feel that over 2.5 goals is priced generously here at 6/5, especially with defensive rock De Rossi missing in midfield.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
Maccabi Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva – lay Maccabi Haifa at 11/10.
Maccabi Haifa are the big side here with the big names and they’re rightfully favourites with that in mind. However, they’re rarely what I would call a convincing side despite possessing good players and that has been proven with Maccabi Haifa struggling against any kind of quality opponent in the Ligat Ha’al this season, often losing.
They face more problems than normal today with long-term absentees (e.g. number one goalkeeper Davidovich) being joined by temporary absentees that are going to cause a big impact. Joining Davidovich on the sidelines are leading goalscorer Amasha, playmaker Tamir Cohen, squad rotation strikers Azriel and Cesarec, as well as Brazilian attacker Gustavo Boccolli so Maccabi Haifa are far from at full-strength here. They can still call upon the experience of Yaniv Katan up front, youngster Golasa in midfield, and the reliable Vered alongside him. They also welcome back Meshumar into defence for this game so it’s not all doom and gloom. Still, it’s hard to take Maccabi Haifa seriously when Amasha isn’t playing and with so many regulars missing here, I don’t think we’ll see the usual Maccabi Haifa scrape-a-goal-and-win-the-game tactic work as well.
Visitors Maccabi Petah Tikva obviously aren’t as good as their hosts but what the do excel in is being hard to beat. They’ve actually won three consecutive games in all competitions ahead of this tough trip and it’s new boss Sinai that is being heralded as the one who has inspired the run. Maccabi Petah Tikva are riding the crest of a wave right now and I think they could really upset their rather predictable and injury-hit hosts here. They’re not the type of side that I’d take to win away from home but they defend well and play tenaciously so most sides struggle to beat them usually.
The visitors are missing a few players here themselves, namely squad rotation striker Golan, squad rotation midfielder Mashiah, and defender Elbaz. The latter is the most important absentee as he’s a regular at the back and his suspension is a blow for today’s visitors. However, they’re a solid unit with plenty of momentum and thus I think they’ve got a good chance of upsetting Maccabi Haifa today.
The hosts appear to be missing too many players to win this game and thus I feel that laying the hosts at 11/10 with the above in mind is well worth a flutter today.
Verdict: Lay Maccabi Haifa at 11/10.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Colon de Santa Fe vs Arsenal de Sarandi (6) 1-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Ermis vs Aris Limassol (5) 1-2
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva (6) 0-0
Italian Serie A:
SSC Napoli vs Chievo Verona (5) 1-0
Siena vs AS Roma (6) 1-2
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Academica de Coimbra vs Gil Vicente (5) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Sociedad vs Sevilla CF (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!