Erzgebirge Aue vs Darmstadt 98
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Today’s free tip is in the German Bundesliga 2 encounter between Erzgebirge Aue and Darmstadt 98.
Although I got burnt backing Darmstadt 98 a couple of gameweeks back, I was happy to see them get back to their best last time out, beating St. Pauli 4-0. The game generally went as I expected but I didn’t see Darmstadt 98 scoring as many as they did. Fortunately for the home team, St. Pauli grew bolder the more they fell behind, which made it easier for them. It wasn’t so much the win that I was looking for with Darmstadt 98 – it was the work ethic. This team works harder than most in the Bundesliga 2 level, and when they do that, they lose very few games. Winning games is not something that comes naturally to them but they’re well-placed to frustrate the hell out of opponents, which is what I expect again today.
They may not be the ideal home team, Darmstadt 98, but they are the ideal away team. They’re constantly pressing their opponents, generally preventing them from getting into any kind of rhythm. Mentally, they’re phenomenal too, so when they’re being steered by an enforcer like Palsson in front of the back four, it’s not hard to see why they’re so annoying to break down. Defensively speaking, they’re not actually that good, at least not individually. It’s the work of their midfielders that keeps teams away from their goal, which is why they’re so damn hard to deal with.
Mostly it’s mental, though. I’ve never seen Darmstadt 98 just give up, you know? They always believe in themselves, and I’ve seen them come back from some one-sided scorelines because of it. Their attack is arguably amongst the weakest in the division but teams tire when trying to constantly match their work-rate and exploitation of space, and that’s where Darmstadt 98 hurt teams – by grinding them down. With opponents struggling to score against them, and struggling to keep them out unless they defend very well, Darmstadt 98 are not a team that anyone wants to face, especially not on the back of a morale-boosting 4-0 victory.
Erzgebirge Aue are not an exception to the rule. They’re used to battling away themselves; that’s the only reason that they’ve got as high up the table as they have this season. Their defence has looked better since big Dane Rasmussen joined in January too. However, with regular goalkeeper Mannel out of this one, I can see either Haas or Jendrusch (both of which haven’t kicked a ball this season) having some dicey moments today, which is all the encouragement that Darmstadt 98 require.
Offensively speaking, Erzgebirge Aue are nothing special but have performed well this season, especially Hochscheidt in midfield. Their strikers are all of a very similar target man mould, which is pretty common at Bundesliga 2 level, and they’ve done alright this season. Much like their opponents, they tend to rely heavily upon their mental strength to engineer points, and I’m sure that’ll make them annoying to Darmstadt 98 today too. Can I see them winning this one, though? Honestly? No. It’s not impossible; nothing is at Bundesliga 2 level. I just think that these two teams are too similar for the ol’ target man approach to work particularly well for Erzgebirge Aue. I think Darmstadt 98 will stifle them well enough to prevent the right kind of service into their front men, and other than lucky punts and set pieces, Erzgebirge Aue really have nothing else to offer at such times.
Darmstadt 98 have a very strong head-to-head record versus their opponents today, and I believe that the absence of Mannel could prove to be telling here. There’s an element of risk, of course, but I really don’t see a good reason for Darmstadt 98 to lose the game so backing the visitors with draw no bet cover at 9/10 suits me just fine.
Verdict: Darmstadt 98 to win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Tuesday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Czech Republic Liga 1:
Slovacko vs Sigma Olomouc
Baumit Jablonec vs Zlin
Marila Pribram vs Banik Ostrava
Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Prague
German Bundesliga:
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
German Bundesliga 2:
Jahn Regensburg vs Nurnberg
Greuther Furth vs Osnabruck
Erzgebirge Aue vs Darmstadt 98
Wehen Wiesbaden vs SV Sandhausen
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