KuPS vs HIFK
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Today’s free tip is in the Finnish Veikkausliiga encounter between KuPS and HIFK. It’s not often that Veikkausliiga games are played during international breaks but this one has been, owing to KuPS’ adventures in Europe. The Finnish FA have generously opted not to call up any players from either squad (e.g. Saira, Mattsson etc. for Finland U21) but the same cannot be said of other nations so KuPS will be without Tarasovs (who scored for Latvia yesterday) and Pikk (Estonia) here.
Now, ordinarily I would doubt a team from Finland, having played every three to four days for a while now, especially considering that KuPS were in Romania a week ago today. However, I watched them host Ilves three days ago, and they looked as fresh as ever. I knew Erlandsen had done a lot of work with them behind the scenes with regard to fitness, but I didn’t think they’d be as sharp as they were. They faced a really good Ilves side that have played better lately than they have for the entire season, and Tampere’s lynxes had to be at their absolute best to get something from that game because KuPS were phenomenal. Honestly, I’m not sure how they didn’t win it because they had more than enough opportunities to do so.
With KuPS, it’s not just their fitness levels but their quality, depth, and natural athleticism that makes them so hard to deal with. When teams try to push out against them, they come up against one of the best defensive midfielders in the Veikkausliiga closing them down in Adjei-Boateng, and he certainly does put himself about well! In addition to that deterrent, they’ve got bloody fast forwards to call upon, which means that the right ball will always pick someone out. Even without Niskanen, KuPS still have the players to make that pass – Nissila and Pennanen in particular – so Sale, Udoh, and Rangel (or whoever is drifting) simply needs to time their runs well in order to get in behind. The end result is that teams simply cannot get out against KuPS. They can counter, and they’ll sometimes score goals, but KuPS are always the dominant team in their games, and that’s what convinces me that they’ll do the job today too.
KuPS are fitter than HIFK. They’re better than HIFK too, which is a nice booster, especially with striker Rangel back from injury. Their attacking power is not something HIFK can realistically hope to contain here. I would feel that way even if the capital club had their starting eleven. The way HIFK frustrate teams under their present managerial duo is to be combative, and to rely on their defensive midfielders to protect their back four. Get at their back four, and HIFK will concede, hence their drive to keep teams away from it. That’s why Mattila and sometimes Selander (mostly a full-back but can play as a holding midfielder too) are so important to them.
For today’s game though, both Mattila and Selander are suspended. Mattila was dismissed in somewhat comical circumstances against SJK, and Selander picked up another yellow against FC Honka Espoo, so they’re both out here. Oh dear. It was already going to be hard enough for them to deal with such an athletic team, but now they’ve got no method to stop the flood of KuPS pace and power from getting at their back four, and that’s only gone to bring one outcome.
The absence of Mattila in particular means that Yaghoubi will see less of the ball, and he’s the one to consistently make things happen for HIFK. They’re very good on the break, and although I’ll credit Henrique (now left the club; he’s at Vejle in Denmark), Vitinho, Mattsson (such a talent – he won’t be at HIFK for much longer), and Fofana for their speed and dribbling, it’s Yaghoubi that picks them out. Without him seeing more of the ball, those counters don’t happen anywhere near as often, which means service into big Tukiainen is limited (or non-existent), and also means teams are not so intimidated by the prospect of attacking HIFK.
Subsequently, HIFK are in trouble here. Serious trouble. KuPS are showing no signs of fatigue whatsoever, and HIFK are out of methods to stop them. That’s not all they’re out of, either – HIFK were surprisingly paid a visit by bailiffs(!) earlier this week. The club’s initially confusing comments after the departure of Henrique, pertaining to there being no new arrivals coming for the rest of the season, no matter who leaves, now suddenly make a bit more sense. It’s not the first time HIFK have had financial troubles, but they never seem to learn.
Anyway, my view here is that KuPS are going to outrun, outmuscle, and outscore HIFK here. I like what Kankkunen and Keeney have done with HIFK this season; they’ve been far easier to watch. However, they’re out of their depth against the title hopefuls, and KuPS do not look at all charitable right now. Therefore, I’m on KuPS to beat the -1 Asian Hanidcap at 22/25.
Verdict: KuPS to beat the –1 Asian Handicap at 22/25.
Thursday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
World Cup Qualifiers – South America:
Uruguay vs Chile
Paraguay vs Peru
Argentina vs Ecuador
Colombia vs Venezuela
Brazil vs Bolivia
UEFA European Championship Qualifiers:
Iceland vs Romania
Bulgaria vs Hungary
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Northern Ireland
Slovakia vs Republic of Ireland
Scotland vs Israel
Norway vs Serbia
Georgia vs Belarus
North Macedonia vs Kosovo
International Friendlies:
Uzbekistan vs Iran
Russia vs Sweden
Belgium vs Ivory Coast
England vs Wales
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Kazakhstan vs North Macedonia
Slovakia vs Azerbaijan
Lithuania vs Greece
Croatia vs San Marino
Montenegro vs Israel
Faroe Islands vs Spain
Netherlands vs Gibraltar
France vs Liechtenstein
Brazilian Serie A:
Athletico Paranaense vs Ceara
RB Bragantino vs Internacional
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS vs HIFK
Portuguese Liga 2:
Academico Viseu vs Academica de Coimbra
Enjoy your free betting tips!