Atletico Mineiro vs Goias
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Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A encounter between Atletico Mineiro and Goias in Belo Horizonte.
The home team enter this match on the back of a defeat against ten-man Fortaleza. I wasn’t surprised to see that happen, not that I’d have backed the home team, mind you. I respect Fortaleza a lot; they’ve been marvellous this season, and they were facing an under-strength Atletico Mineiro side, severely damaged by the absences of Franco, Alonso, and Savarino are absent. I still think Fortaleza deserve a lot of credit for what they did on the night because that’s not an easy side to deal with. They’ve ben superb since promotion though, so anyone backing Atletico Mineiro in that game (with their absentees in mind) needed to take a long, hard look in the mirror.
For tonight’s game, Atletico Mineiro are at least back in familiar surroundings. I fear they’re not in for much of an easier game though. True enough, Goias are nowhere near as smart defensively as Fortaleza are, but what they lack in defence, they make up for in attack. This team is happy to commit men forward at all times, and they leave few games without finding the net because of it. Veteran striker Rafael Moura was the relative hero against Fluminense mid-week as he bagged twice against El Tricolor, his former club, not that it mattered as Fluminense did very Fluminense things on the day by scoring more goals – four, to be precise.
Therein lies the problem with Goias, though. For all the goals that they score, they look just as capable of conceding more, no matter who they’re facing. They give teams a real run for their money, but the top teams will usually find a way to beat them. Therefore, given how much Atletico Mineiro have improved under Sampaoli this season, I believe that they should win this game. I still don’t see good enough odds to make the risk worthwhile, but they should be able to outscore a very open Goias, to be frank.
I’ve got a lot of respect for the visitors, though. They’ve worked harder than most in Serie A this season, and they play football the ‘proper’ way; they’re certainly not involved in dull games. I can only assume that they’ve managed to utilise some form of wizardry to get Daniel Bessa to the club too, as he’s far too good for them, and it shows. They’ve made the most of his presence though, and it’s the likes of Rafael Moura, Victor Andrade, and Vinicius that have profited from such. Their actual attackers are a bit ‘Crazy Gang’-esque but Moreira makes it work. They lack nothing mentally, Goias, and they sure are effective at hurting teams – they just don’t know how to win because of truly appalling defending.
Ordinarily, I’d probably toy with the Atletico Mineiro handicap here because they’re deadly from open play and on the break nowadays, and I do mean ‘deadly’. Being fast is one thing, and having a gifted creator or two is another, but they’ve actually got finishers too. I still think Marrony deserves more game time than he’s getting, but Keno’s goals speak for themselves. Containing this team has become very difficult indeed, given their intensity and athleticism. Even without Franco, I expect them to seriously damage the Goias defence tonight.
Atletico Mineiro’s own defence isn’t great, though – not even close. They’ve looked like conceding in every game I’ve seen them play in this season, even in games where they’ve kept clean sheets (e.g. Flamengo away, Ceara at home). That’s made worse tonight as their best defender, Alonso, is still on international duty with Paraguay. They may be able to get by without Franco and Savarino in midfield, also still on international duty, because they’re not short of depth in that area. In defence, though? They can’t be without Alonso; it’s not possible for them to replace him. Subsequently, as superior to Goias as Atletico Mineiro are purported to be, there’s actually not a lot of difference between them tonight.
Yes, the home team have bigger names, and a better manager too. However, they’re both a lot stronger in attack than in defence, and Goias look as confident as ever. I think we’re in for an interesting affair here. For me, backing both teams to score at 4/5 makes an awful lot of sense.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
UEFA Nations League:
Spain vs Switzerland
Ukraine vs Germany
Luxembourg vs Cyprus
Montenegro vs Azerbaijan
Faroe Islands vs Latvia
Liechtenstein vs Gibraltar
Andorra vs Malta
International Friendlies:
Cape Verde Islands vs Guinea
Brazilian Serie A:
Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
Coritiba vs Fortaleza
Atletico Mineiro vs Goias
Finnish Ykkonen:
KPV vs Kajaani
SJK-Akatemia vs Jaro Pietarsaari
Ekenas IF vs MP
AC Oulu vs MuSa
VPS vs KTP
MyPa vs Gnistan
Enjoy your free betting tips!