FC Honka Espoo vs FC Lahti
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Today’s free tip is the Finnish Veikkausliiga encounter between FC Honka Espoo and FC Lahti.
At this stage of the season in Finland, games become a bit like chess. Well, that’s customary for FC Honka Espoo’s games anyway; they’re the most intelligent and well-organised team in the country. However, at a time when it’s more important to cement their place in the top six ahead of the league split, which is only a couple of games away, it’s sensible to deploy a more cautious approach – and they have. FC Honka Espoo have been cast-iron defensively in their past two games, and it should continue here because they recognise that the absence of Dongou (who is still out, by the way) limits their capacity to kill teams off, whether from a winning position, or whether from a level-pegging scoreline. It doesn’t damage the team any more than that, but Vesara is a cautious manager, and he’ll always take that approach in situations of this nature because it makes no sense to take unnecessary risks. FC Honka Espoo have far more to lose than they have to gain here; let me put it that way.
They may still harbour hopes of winning the title, FC Honka Espoo, and I would not bet against it. I won’t deny that it’d be an uphill struggle but the league split will see the best six teams in the country face one another, and with HJK’s natural ‘flair’ for complacency in mind, and KuPS apparent desire to give goals away, I would say that nothing is set in stone with regard to the title race there yet. Inter Turku’s Riveiro has started making his team play a more familiar style of late, which has made them contenders again, Ilves have been seriously impressive over the past month or so (and did the best transfer business over the summer), Honkavaara’s SJK have found their pride and confidence, and it would be dangerous to write FC Lahti off with the quality at Zeneli’s disposal. There’s still everything to play for, basically. Therefore, I don’t expect FC Honka Espoo to change the habit of a lifetime by trying to go all out to beat FC Lahti today; I think they’ll sit back, weigh them up, and wait for any mistakes to be made, which the visitors are prone to sometimes.
That approach would see FC Honka Espoo control this game, as they do so effortlessly anyway. Teams generally created a very limited amount of chances against them, and not many take them well enough. They’re close to averaging conceding a goal per every two games played, FC Honka Espoo, and although a good defence is hardly something to sit back and revel in on the box, it’s still something that deserves an awful lot of respect. FC Honka Espoo are a brutal machine in Finnish football, and with a bit more familiarity in the final third, they’d be far higher in the table than they are because nobody outplays them, honestly.
Ultimately, they’re going to need a replacement for Kandji, who is getting on a bit, and potentially one for Martin although he still looks in great shape. Other than that though, this is a very complete squad. They’re good at everything, FC Honka Espoo. They’re got the best sitting midfielders in the competition in Tammilehto and Voutilainen, and this excellent defensive setup of theirs is not coincidental now that the former has had his longest period of staying fit for what must be at least five or six years. Their defence is rock-solid, Murray is a good goalkeeper, and their players work as hard to get back as they do to get forward. The extraordinary defensive setup allows the attacking players to ‘do their thing’ without any real fears either – and they do.
Vesara’s choice of attacking players tells you that he prefers to make his team attack without committing too many men forward. Kaufmann, Kandji, Savage, and Dongou (when fit) are all capable of making something happen from nowhere with their speed, movement, and dribbling capabilities. With Hervas acting as a more standard playmaker, and Martin drifting all across the front line, FC Honka Espoo actually have a very fluid attack. They don’t score as many as I like, but they seldom struggle to create chances, nor to win penalties. They’re a very measured outfit, FC Honka Espoo, and that won’t change today. They know how to handle FC Lahti, and it’s definitely not by rashly engaging them in an open game. No, I expect the home team to play a very patient game here, and if they do, they’ve got a chance of winning it, and certainly shouldn’t lose it.
FC Lahti do bring a bit of an ‘x factor’ to their games, I guess you could say, largely because their manager Zeneli is crazy. He comes out with some very strange statements to the Finnish media. I still can’t get over that he took his team to the capital to face the best HJK side I’ve seen in many, many years, and boldly stated that he expected his team to win. They got a draw, as it happens, but that’s the measure of the man!
FC Lahti had some potential concerns ahead of this trip after defensive midfield beast Eninful (no more Cruyff turns in the box though, please!) limped off against Haka Valkeakoski, and Coubronne had picked up a knock too. Everybody is fit though, barring Martinen, who is always absent anyway. FC Lahti actually have a really good squad this season. I tipped them as dark horses when I saw what had been done, and I stand by it. Their consistency has not been great, but their potential really is. That defence of theirs has the potential to be the best in the country. It’s not, but it could well be with the right focus because of Coubronne, Lahti himself, and Arkivuo. Eninful does a good job in front of them, and now that wonderkid Virta is back in the squad, they’re afforded good protection. FC Lahti have the capacity to frustrate most Finnish teams.
Their attack is very good too though. Towering Hambo has disappointed me, but again, has the quality to be a success, especially alongside rapid Imbongo. The success story of their attack this season has been wonderkid Assehnoun though, who already has eight goals to his name. With him, Kuningas, Rashica, and Klinga in the equation, FC Lahti have become a team that are just as good on the break as they are at breaking teams down. It serves as a handy deterrent to stop teams from getting at them too much. It’s a good team, to be frank, and one that I rate rather highly. Their inconsistency does my head in, but they’re a very capable side, and they have shown that against FC Honka Espoo on two occasions already this season.
Much like with FC Honka Espoo, I can see FC Lahti taking this game in a rather patient fashion. They need to secure their top six spot, and a draw in Espoo would go some way toward achieving that. Their last game of the regular campaign is at home against HIFK. Now, assuming HIFK beat RoPS today – which they should – that means that HIFK would have to beat FC Lahti at the Lahden in their final game of this stage. Failure to do so would mean that a top six finish is impossible. HIFK are a counterattacking team; they don’t like playing on the front foot. Doing so would hand FC Lahti more than enough of what they need to win the game, and a win would give them a great chance of finishing in the top six. The only fly in the ointment is SJK, but they’re facing Ilves today. I would only be concerned as to what FC Lahti might do in Espoo (style-wise) if SJK took a convincing lead because SJK have a game in hand, and they’ll absolutely win both of their remaining two games after this one. That’s something to keep an eye on. Still, there’s not a chance that Ilves can afford to let SJK do that so my perspective is that FC Lahti will play it safe here. Nobody comes from behind to beat FC Honka Espoo, after all.
The above makes me think that we’ll see these two powerful teams play a great game of chess here. If that is indeed the case, backing under 2.5 goals at 4/5 is an absolute steal.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Thursday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
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CSKA Sofia vs CFR Cluj
Dundalk vs Molde FK
Rapid Vienna vs Arsenal
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs OGC Nice
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Slavia Prague
Standard de Liege vs Rangers
Lech Poznan vs SL Benfica
PSV Eindhoven vs Granada CF
PAOK Salonika vs Omonia Nicosia
SSC Napoli vs AZ Alkmaar
Rijeka vs Real Sociedad
Sporting Braga vs AEK Athens
Leicester City vs Zorya Lugansk
Sparta Prague vs Lille OSC
Celtic vs AC Milan
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Qarabagh FK
Villarreal CF vs Sivasspor
Tottenham Hotspur vs LASK
Ludogorets Razgrad vs Antwerp
Dinamo Zagreb vs Feyenoord Rotterdam
Wolfsberger AC vs CSKA Moscow
TSG Hoffenheim vs Red Star Belgrade
Slovan Liberec vs AA Gent
Copa Libertadores:
Universidad Catolica vs Internacional
Gremio vs America de Cali
Libertad Asuncion vs Independiente Medellin
Boca Juniors vs Caracas
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo vs FC Lahti
Inter Turku vs TPS
HIFK vs RoPS
KuPS vs Haka Valkeakoski
SJK vs Ilves
Enjoy your free betting tips!