Pacos de Ferreira vs Famalicao
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Today’s free tip is in the Portuguese Liga 1 encounter between Pacos de Ferreira and Famalicao.
I appreciate that this season’s Famalicao is not the same as last season’s Famalicao. A lot of changes were made, but not many of them were negative, given the financial backing that this club now has. They’re simply changes. As with all things, changes take time, and Famalicao’s early season form has reflected that. However, there have been more positive steps than negatives over the past four weeks or so, and a tidy recent 3-0 victory over part-timers Oriental Lisboa in the Taca de Portugal has set them up nicely for a league return tonight in Pacos.
For some reason, the bookies have remained oblivious to Famalicao’s ‘situation’, if you will. I’m certainly not saying that they’re a banker to win tonight’s game, but I am saying that they’ve got a far better chance than the odds suggest. They’re the better of these two teams, to start with, so making them underdogs is confusing. I appreciate that Pacos de Ferreira are natural battlers, and they know that home points are all that really keeps them in this division, but that doesn’t change the fact that Famalicao have access to a calibre of player that they simply don’t. With the progress they’ve made over the past four weeks, Famalicao really should be looking to win this one.
Defensively speaking, I still have concerns for Famalicao. I don’t expect any team in Portugal to be perfect at the back, but their defending – particularly when attempting to guard a lead – is pretty frustrating. They make the most bizarre of mistakes when it comes to simply not picking up men in the box, or not going with runners to begin with, and it does cost them sometimes. That’s admittedly a risk about backing the away team tonight. However, it’s their attack that gives me confidence in the pick. They may not be blessed in the height department, Famalicao, but whilst they’ve got class acts like Valenzuela, Lameiras, and Gil Dias, support from Assuncao, and a brilliant forward in Dyego Sousa, they’re going to score goals. That should be enough for them to triumph in Pacos tonight.
I would not be too worried about Pacos de Ferreira running away with things against UD Oliveirense in the Taca de Portugal last time out either. They’re fighters, like I said above, but they encountered a disinterested team that have made too many changes lately, and are far more focused on preserving their stay in the division below rather than attempting a Cup run. Fair play to Pacos de Ferreira; it’s not going to have done their confidence any harm to have a bit of momentum here. Tonight’s game will be a lot harder for them though; of that I am certain.
The form guide for Pacos de Ferreira at home this season is a bit more flattering than it should be. They did what has become ‘the norm’ when it comes to containing a bang average Sporting Clube de Portugal side earlier in the season, and that didn’t work because they can’t defend. It didn’t come up so much against weak Santa Clara, and they got away with it in the relative derby against FC Porto, but the bottom line is that this team isn’t leaving games against good teams without conceding at least two goals. Credit to boss Pepa because his team never seems to give up in those circumstances. However, it’s a tightrope walk for a bottom six club to play that way, and doing so against a Famalicao side that are easily amongst the top six teams in Portugal seems too bold for me.
I’d love to say that I expected Famalicao to do a professional job tonight, but I don’t. They’re just not ‘there’ yet. However, I do expect them to score enough goals to win the game, or at the very least draw it, so backing the away win with draw no bet cover at 3/2 suits me just fine here.
Verdict: Famalicao to win with draw no bet at 3/2.
Friday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AS Eupen vs Sporting Charleroi
Bulgarian A PFG:
Cherno More Varna vs Slavia Sofia
Croatian Prva Liga:
Sibenik vs Slaven Koprivnica
Czech Republic Liga 1:
Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc
Danish Superligaen:
Randers vs OB
English Premier League:
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
French Ligue 1:
Racing Club Strasbourg vs Stade Rennais
German Bundesliga:
VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga 2:
Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig
St. Pauli vs Osnabruck
Hungarian Liga 1:
Ujpest vs Paksi SE
Italian Serie B:
Chievo Verona vs Lecce
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Twente Enschede vs RKC Waalwijk
Portuguese Liga 1:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Famalicao
Tondela vs Vitoria Guimaraes
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Valladolid vs Levante CF
Swiss Challenge League:
Aarau vs Winterthur
SC Kriens vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
FC Schaffhausen vs Neuchatel Xamax
FC Wil vs Grasshopper Zurich
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaragucu vs Trabzonspor
Enjoy your free betting tips!