Dijon FCO vs Lille OSC
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Today’s free tip is in the French Ligue 1 encounter between Dijon FCO and Lille OSC.
You know, fans often complain about their club’s signings, or lack of, but Dijon FCO are a prime example of what can happen if a club engages in too much transfer activity. They’re at the bottom of Ligue 1 after a disastrous start to their campaign, and it’s ultimately ended up costing Jobard his job, his replacement being Linares. Dijon FCO are not a bad team; certainly not the worst in the league. However, the powers-that-be panic when they see the league table and hear the murmurs of discontent from the fans, and feel compelled to act. I don’t think that Jobard has done anything worthy of being sacked, really, but that’s football today I’m afraid.
I think it’s also worth noting that this team has had a lot of injury problems this season, especially in attack. They lost Tavares and Amalfitano in the same period leading up to the end of the transfer window, which was a hammer-blow to their attack with Benzia still injured. Bearing in mind that they lost defender Aguard and goalkeeper Gomis pre-season, that’s four players that they’ve had to replace. Boey, Assale, Celina, Panzo, Diop coming in – I like all of those, especially Assale. However, Assale has been injured a fair amount since coming in, which prompted the panic buying of Konate, who really isn’t good enough for this level. They’ve reacted to the situations they’ve been in, Dijon FCO, but they’ve been unlucky – and it’s cost Jobard his job.
Anyway, since Linares came in, the focus has been on improving Dijon FCO’s defensive game, which has worked well thus far. They’ve been as tenacious as ever, of course, and harder to beat. They’re still not winning enough games but that should come with time. This team has become very strong in the physical department, making it hard to find angles to penetrate their defence. They’re not a top team, Dijon FCO, so good attacks will find a way through. However, it’s not the top teams they play this way to oust; it’s the lesser teams, the ones that they’ll be battling relegation with, that they want to score points off – and they have been.
With the above in mind, I believe that Lille OSC are in for a rough game here. It’s one that they could and should win, but playing every three days has really started to take its toll on Galtier’s men. Remember that the away team play a very intense pressing game, and rely heavily on their speed and energy in the final third to make space as most Ligue 1 teams ‘park the bus’ against them this season, and they’re right to do so too – not many would beat this team in an open game. Tiredness has made the Galtier plan less effective though, due to low energy reserves, which is why Lille OSC have been forced into more over 2.5 goals games than they’d like lately. They’re resourceful enough to still win most of them but it’s not ideal, and they’re not far away from messing up whilst playing this way.
Galtier has had to contend with the likes of Sanches, Bradaric, Celik, Araujo, and Pied all being out lately, as well as trying to nurture young Canadian forward David so his low confidence doesn’t get any worse, whilst also trying to remind Weah how good he can be, which hasn’t been seen since his return from injury. He’s juggling a lot, Galtier, but he’s more than good enough to manage it. Still, this type of game does not suit Lille OSC. They can break through such teams, and I would expect them to manage it – but I wouldn’t bank on it. Dijon FCO are better than the league table suggests, and Lille OSC aren’t as controlled as they should be right now so they will start dropping points sooner or later.
My opinion is that this will be a very dogged tactical affair with Dijon FCO playing for the point, and Lille OSC cautiously going for the win. I suspect we’ll see a 0-1 scoreline but as I intimated above, the 1×2 market does nothing for me here. Backing under 2.5 goals at 9/10 makes a lot of sense though, especially as Lille OSC are not going to push for more if they do get ahead with a big northern France derby against Paris Saint-Germain looming at weekend.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Wednesday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Copa Libertadores:
Santos vs Gremio
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Boca Juniors
Copa Sudamericana:
Defensa y Justicia vs Bahia
Coquimbo Unido vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Antwerp vs Zulte-Waregem
AS Eupen vs Racing Genk
AA Gent vs Waasland-Beveren
Kortrijk vs Standard de Liege
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Goianiense vs Fluminense
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro
Bulgarian A PFG:
Tsarsko selo vs Beroe
Czech Republic Liga 1:
Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovacko
Slovan Liberec vs Opava
Sparta Prague vs Pardubice
English Premier League:
Arsenal vs Southampton
Leeds United vs Newcastle United
Leicester City vs Everton
Fulham vs Brighton & Hove Albion
West Ham United vs Crystal Palace
Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur
French Ligue 1:
Angers SCO vs Racing Club Strasbourg
Dijon FCO vs Lille OSC
Montpellier HSC vs Metz
Nimes Olympique vs OGC Nice
Stade de Reims vs FC Nantes Atlantique
Girondins de Bordeaux vs AS Saint-Etienne
Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Brestois
AS Monaco vs Racing Club Lens
Paris Saint-Germain vs Lorient
Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille
German Bundesliga:
Schalke 04 vs SC Freiburg
Bayern Munich vs VfL Wolfsburg
TSG Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig
Koln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Arminia Bielefeld vs Augsburg
German Bundesliga 2:
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Osnabruck
Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig
Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg
Würzburger Kickers vs St. Pauli
Hungarian Liga 1:
Budapest Honved vs Diosgyori VTK
Zalaegerszegi TE vs MTK Budapest
Paksi SE vs Ferencvaros
Budafoki MTE vs Mezokovesd-Zsory
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Hadera vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Maccabi Netanya
Italian Serie A:
Juventus vs Atalanta Bergamo
ACF Fiorentina vs Sassuolo
Genoa vs AC Milan
Internazionale vs SSC Napoli
Parma vs Cagliari
Spezia vs Bologna
Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Odd vs Molde FK
Russian Premier League:
PFC Sochi vs Dinamo Moscow
Rotor Volgograd vs Arsenal Tula
Zenit St. Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow
Spanish Primera Liga:
Barcelona CF vs Real Sociedad
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs FC Zurich
FC Basel vs Young Boys Bern
St. Gallen vs Lugano
Enjoy your free betting tips!