Metz vs Racing Club Strasbourg
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Today’s free tip is in the French Ligue 1 encounter between Metz and Racing Club Strasbourg.
It’s derby day in eastern France, and although I stand by what I said about Strasbourg being the superior team, they’re simply not playing like that right now. With Strasbourg, I don’t tend to pay too much mind to the results they get because their open style will…well, leave them open to all kinds of results. What I’m more interested in is their displays. Strasbourg tend to be very prominent in games, creating lots of chances. Lately, that’s not really been the case. They’ve still had the odd opportunity here and there which they’ve generally not taken, but in games they’re being bossed around way too easily for my liking.
There’s losing games, and then there’s deserving to lose games. The first I can accept; the second is worrisome. Strasbourg are the latter right now. Earlier in the season, I watched them absolutely hammer Metz in the reversal of this fixture, completely playing them off the park – yet still only drawing 2-2. Why? Because they were stupid in defence, giving away two penalties (only one was converted on the day). Strasbourg can live with that occupational hazard as long as they’re scoring goals, which they’re not doing consistently enough right now. Furthermore, since then Metz have improved a fair amount. That’s left me feeling like today’s home team should not be underdogs here, at least not to the extent that they are.
Strasbourg are simply in a bad phase. I’m sure they’ll come out of it; they always do. They should have a bit of money to be played with too, if the German media are correct, as they’ve stated that youngster Simakan has agreed to sign for a Bundesliga club (RB Leipzig, I think). They’re not a crap team, but they sure are playing like one right now, and they can’t afford to be without effectiveness because their tactical quality is about zero. In other words, if they’re not scoring goals, and they’re not seeing enough of the ball in midfield, they’re going to lose games.
What will be interesting here is to see how Metz line up for this game. On one hand, they could sit back, let Strasbourg have the ball, and counter them, like they did last time. That got them a favourable result, not that they played well enough for my money. However, they’re now in a position whereby they can play on the front foot too, pressing high up the pitch, and using their speed to not only get on the end of balls in behind, but also to make something happen after forcing defenders into mistakes. I suspect we’ll see them take the latter route, and it would make a lot of sense at the moment; Strasbourg really aren’t doing enough to prevent teams from doing it to them.
Metz are still without first-team players but have coped really well, to be fair to them. I don’t like Leya Iseka up front but he’s stepped into Niane’s shoes really well over the past couple of months. Boulaya has come to the fore more now, as has Nguette, and I love how Angban has really started to boss the midfield too. Although far from perfect, Metz really are starting to get a lot right. Much like Strasbourg, they do tend to rely on physical attributes and directness rather than tactical perfection (and that’s me putting it very kindly) but Metz are simply in a better place than their neighbours at the moment, consistently churning out impressive, sharp displays, home or away.
This tip is more about circumstances and timing than anything else, to be frank. I still consider Strasbourg to be the far better team on their day, but given that the visitors are not playing at all well, and that Metz are taking their chances really well at the moment, I have to consider the prospect of backing Metz to win this derby with draw no bet cover as a good value pick today.
Verdict: Metz to win with draw no bet at evens.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners
Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna vs Hartberg
SV Ried vs St. Polten
LASK vs Sturm Graz
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Antwerp
Germinal Beerschot vs KV Mechelen
Sporting Charleroi vs Club Brugge
Cercle Brugge vs RSC Anderlecht
Brazilian Serie A:
Flamengo vs Corinthians
Vasco da Gama vs Internacional
Palmeiras vs Fortaleza
Athletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense
Gremio vs Sao Paulo
Bulgarian A PFG:
CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Tsarsko selo
Levski Sofia vs Montana
Croatian Prva Liga:
Rijeka vs Istra 1961
Czechia Liga 1:
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc
Slovan Liberec vs Ceske Budejovice
Mlada Boleslav vs Viktoria Plzen
Banik Ostrava vs Baumit Jablonec
Sparta Prague vs Karvina
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK vs Randers
Vejle vs FC Nordsjaelland
Lyngby vs Brondby
FC Midtjylland vs AC Horsens
OB vs AGF
English Premier League:
Southampton vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
West Bromwich Albion vs Manchester United
Arsenal vs Leeds United
Everton vs Fulham
Finnish Suomen Cup:
RoPS vs VPS
French Ligue 1:
AS Monaco vs Lorient
Angers SCO vs FC Nantes Atlantique
Dijon FCO vs Nimes Olympique
Metz vs Racing Club Strasbourg
Stade Rennais vs AS Saint-Etienne
Lille OSC vs Stade Brestois
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Olympique de Marseille
German Bundesliga:
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Koln
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
German Bundesliga 2:
Darmstadt 98 vs VfL Osnabruck
VfL Bochum vs Eintracht Braunschweig
Nurnberg vs St. Pauli
Hungarian Liga 1:
Mezokovesd-Zsory vs Ferencvaros
Fehervar vs MTK Budapest
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Hadera vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Italian Serie A:
AS Roma vs Udinese
Cagliari vs Atalanta Bergamo
Sampdoria vs ACF Fiorentina
Crotone vs Sassuolo
Internazionale vs SS Lazio
Italian Serie B:
Virtus Entella vs Frosinone
Reggiana vs Ascoli
Brescia vs Chievo Verona
Dutch Eredivisie:
AZ Alkmaar vs SC Heerenveen
FC Utrecht vs VVV Venlo
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Willem II
Vitesse Arnhem vs FC Twente Enschede
Portuguese Liga 1:
Portimonense vs Gil Vicente
Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga
Moreirense vs SL Benfica
Portuguese Liga 2:
Vilafranquense vs Penafiel
Chaves vs SL Benfica II
Mafra vs Leixoes Matosinhos
FC Porto II vs UD Oliveirense
Casa Pia vs Feirense
Spanish Primera Liga:
Getafe vs Real Sociedad
Real Madrid vs Valencia
Levante vs CA Osasuna
Villarreal vs Real Betis Balompie
Swiss Super League:
Lugano vs Young Boys Bern
Luzern vs Vaduz
FC Zurich vs FC Basel
Turkish Super Lig:
Konyaspor vs Denizlispor
Hatayspor vs Alanyaspor
Goztepe vs Istanbul BB
Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa
Enjoy your free betting tips!