FC Lahti vs FC Honka Espoo
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Today’s free tip is in the Finnish Veikkausliiga encounter between FC Lahti and FC Honka Espoo.
The bookies aren’t wrong to make FC Honka Espoo favourites here, but circumstances make it worthwhile to oppose them rather than back them right now. They’re the one team that seems to have regressed since the Suomen Cup, which I find most bizarre because they’ve got the least reason to do so. Still, it’s the reality, and they’re just not hurting teams enough because of it.
Personally, I think that they did great business pre-season. Yes, they lost some important regulars, and they took a chance in midfield by letting teenage wonderkid Pyyhtia replace Hervas. I still think that they signed the right players to replace those that moved on though, and with the core of the team still in tact, as well as the same manager being in charge, doubting FC Honka Espoo was not something I thought I’d be doing in May. They’re generally one of the most consistent teams in the country, whether they win or not. This season, that’s less so.
For me, the problem stems from wide positions. Vesara’s boys don’t struggle to control games or contain teams, but breaking teams down has long been a bugbear of theirs, which is why they spend the most money on attacking talents. Over the years, that’s been Kaufmann, Savage, Kandji, and then Dongou too. Now there’s Smith and Alegria in the equation. FC Honka Espoo rely heavily on intricacy, though, and cohesion. There’s nothing slapstick about their approach; it’s 100% meticulous. Subsequently, introducing new players is very hard for them to do.
Most of their new additions have arrived to fill wide positions. They let full-backs join in attacks to provide more orthodox width as their attackers prefer to play as inside forwards. However, both full-backs are young and a bit rash, and their attacks are somewhat new too, as is their midfield dictator. Subsequently, what’s happening is that FC Honka Espoo are playing safer passes more often rather than gradual progression, which results in limited penetration, limited chances, and even more limited goals. They’re by no means crap, and their defence is very solid, but until I see their attack start to link-up properly, I can’t help but distrust them.
Today they’ve got the misfortune of facing a plucky, capable FC Lahti side too. FC Lahti have applied themselves really well this season, whether the form guide tells you that or not. They’ve had some hard games, given it their best, but have lost against teams that are too good for them. They’ve scored against both KuPS and HJK, which should tell you why, as per usual, they’re one of the Veikkausliiga’s dark horses this season. However, the more quizzical side of FC Lahti is how they concede as many as they do with one of the best defences in the country, and that’s a paradox I have no answer for.
Luckily for them, most teams don’t attack like HJK or KuPS, meaning that FC Lahti will be able to hold their own well this season, including today. I do have concerns over their consistency, as per usual, but the rest of what they’ve done, I like. Their striker situation is a curious one as none of them are proven at this level but it seems to be working well thus far, and with such a lethal, fast midfield behind them, it’s fair to say that Zeneli has not taken too many risks pre-season by revamping his entire frontline, even with the Espinosa saga looking rather curious from the outside.
I like what I’ve seen from FC Lahti, in short. They have their limitations, and I’m not sure mentally that they can return to being a legitimate title threat as they were in the 1990’s and 2000’s, but they’re good enough to claim a top six finish this season. They need to continue to focus, work hard, and take their chances, but if they do then they’re in for a good campaign. I certainly think that they’re a few weeks ahead of FC Honka Espoo right now, and they look more convincing in front of goal. With FC Honka Espoo getting rattled too much defensively right now due to the ball coming back at them too often, I believe that backing the underdogs with draw no bet cover is a risk worth taking today, especially with Smith and Arko-Mensah amongst the absentees for the visitors.
Verdict: FC Lahti to win with draw no bet at 49/50.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Western United
Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs Swarovski Tirol
Rapid Vienna vs LASK Linz
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
KV Mechelen vs AA Gent
Standard de Liege vs KV Oostende
Bulgarian A PFG:
CSKA 1948 Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Croatian Prva Liga:
Slaven Koprivnica vs Varazdin
Rijeka vs Gorica
Dinamo Zagreb vs Sibenik
Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Tammeka vs Trans Narva
Faroese Betrideildin:
NSI Runavik vs KI
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku vs KTP
SJK vs HJK
FC Lahti vs FC Honka Espoo
Ilves vs KuPS
Finnish Ykkonen:
MuSa vs RoPS
KPV vs Gnistan
Jippo Joensuu vs Klubi-04
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich vs Augsburg
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hertha Berlin
VfL Wolfsburg vs Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig
Koln vs Schalke 04
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld
Icelandic Pepsideild:
FH vs KR
Italian Serie A:
Cagliari vs Genoa
Crotone vs ACF Fiorentina
Sampdoria vs Parma
Spanish Primera Liga:
Celta de Vigo vs Real Betis Balompie
Eibar vs Barcelona
Huesca vs Valencia
CA Osasuna vs Real Sociedad
Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Real Valladolid vs Atletico Madrid
Elche vs Athletic Club
Swedish Allsvenskan:
AIK Solna vs Mjallby Solvesborg
Ostersunds FK vs Sirius
Enjoy your free betting tips!