Adelaide United vs Sydney FC
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Today’s free tip is in the Australian A-League encounter between Adelaide United and Sydney FC.
I was inches away from backing the underdogs today but the absence of all three strikers – Juric, Yengi, and Mohamed Toure – makes it not worth the risk. Sydney FC are cowards; they will not leave themselves open to being countered very often, and therefore Adelaide United are unlikely to score unless Goodwin produces a moment of magic. Even with a striker on the pitch, that was the case last time these two teams met in the city of churches, and only a penalty decided the game in the favour of the home team. It’d require something similar today without a striker on the pitch, hence my disinterest in the 1×2 market.
But that means Sydney FC should be worth backing – right? You’re a braver person than I am if you do. They have the personnel but I’m sick of their pointless sideways passing. They seldom do enough to create chances, let alone score them. They’ve got two brilliant finishers in Bobo and Le Fondre but without any clear-cut route to goal, it’s difficult for me to trust them. Serbian magician Ninkovic is the only one of their playmakers I trust right now; Caceres still plays like he’s Kaka – minus the quality, and I can’t even remember the last time that Baumjohann put in a good display. Luckily for The Sky Blues, he’s out today. The point is that they just don’t create enough chances though, and an injured Buhagiar and out-of-sorts Barbarouses won’t help.
When Sydney FC score, they sit on it. They do this because they have a rock-solid defence that can be relied upon, because they can’t deal with speed, and because they have some of the lowest stamina levels in the country, which is why they’re so consistent at doing it. They don’t even counter-attack when they’re in that position because they seldom have the players on the pitch to do it. Buhagiar and Barbarouses are the only ones that can, and with Buhagiar injured for the rest of the season, and Barbarouses generally substituted for a more defensive player later in the game, it’s fair to say that a solitary goal is all Sydney FC generally go for.
Essentially, as opposed to what they did under Arnold – which was the model of efficiency – they play cautiously now because they fear their opponents a lot more than they should. They’re lacking in some serious quality in some key areas, not that the pundits are saying much about it. Without serious investment, this team is going to slip down the ladder in the next year or two because it’s ageing, and there’s little sign of youngsters coming through to fill in the blanks. The cowardly way in which they play should not change today as they seek to conserve the energy levels of their older players, and they have to be extra careful against a very fast, energetic Adelaide United team.
Sydney FC are going to control this game, and with no Juande to break their play up, and no strikers available for their hosts either, I’d like to think that they will. I still don’t think that they’ll win, though. Lopez and Jakobsen are back for the home team, as are Strain and Timotheou, which gives them their best possible back four. Delianov is back between the sticks, and he’s a great shot stopper for his age. They have enough in front of the back four to make life annoying for Sydney FC, even if they ultimately do succumb to Sydney FC’s boredom-inducing football.
With a striker, I really would fancy Adelaide United to nick this one. They’ve not been amazing lately, but they’ve been better than Sydney FC, and have worked harder. There are some weak spots in this squad, I know, but they’re a lot easier to understand and appreciate than their massively overrated opponents. If Sydney FC take the lead it’s game over here, though – Adelaide United know that. They’re going to focus on preventing that from happening, and that in itself should pave the way for this match being a low-scoring affair.
A draw doesn’t significantly damage either team at this stage of the season so I suspect we’ll see an under 2.5 goals game, and the risk is worth taking whilst the odds of 6/5 are available on this selection.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
International Friendlies:
Singapore vs Afghanistan
Iraq vs Nepal
Indonesia vs Oman
Thailand vs Tajikistan
Sweden vs Finland
Mexico vs Iceland
UEFA Champions League:
Manchester City vs Chelsea
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Sydney FC
Austrian Bundesliga Promotion/Relegation Play-Off:
St. Polten vs Austria Klagenfurt
Brazilian Serie A:
Bahia vs Santos
Cuiaba vs Juventude
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense
Czechia Liga 1:
Opava vs Viktoria Plzen
Sparta Prague vs Zbrojovka Brno
Banik Ostrava vs Karvina
Slovacko vs Zlin
Teplice vs Marila Pribram
Slavia Prague vs Ceske Budejovice
Slovan Liberec vs Sigma Olomouc
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905
Pardubice vs Baumit Jablonec
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Trans Narva vs Flora Paide
Flora Tallinn vs Tulevik
Legion vs FCI Levadia Tallinn
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo vs SJK
KuPS vs Haka Valkeakoski
HIFK vs Inter Turku
Finnish Ykkonen:
KPV vs Jaro Pietarsaari
VPS vs MP
TPS vs Jippo Joensuu
Ekenas IF vs MuSa
German Bundesliga Promotion/Relegation Play-Off:
Holstein Kiel vs Koln
Icelandic Pepsideild:
KA vs Breidablik Kopavogur
Valur Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Dainava vs Banga Gargzdai
Romanian Liga 1 Promotion/Relegation Play-Off::
Mioveni vs FC Hermannstadt
Calarasi vs FC Voluntari
Enjoy your free betting tips!