Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United
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Today’s featured game (posted Saturday evening as the fixture is played very early on Sunday morning!) is the Australian A-League encounter between Brisbane Roar and Adelaide United.
Just like in yesterday’s A-League play-off, I expect another very tense game today – possibly even another 0-0. I liked that pick before I saw that Adelaide United suffered the loss of star attacker Goodwin because of a training mishap, and I like it even more now.
Adelaide United are the only ones that can stop this game from going under 2.5 goals. Roar are very much an under 2.5 goals team; score, sit back, and counter – that’s their optimal approach. In a game of such magnitude though, it’s unlikely that Roar will push too hard for another goal, and let’s face it – they’re probably the worst-finishing team left in the A-League right now. Therefore, even Adelaide’s calamitous defending shouldn’t be too detrimental to this pick. Let’s just hope that the returning Elsey starts for The Reds, huh? He may be a bit naive at times but he’s still a very solid, hard-working centre-back.
Roar also welcome back a lot of defenders with Hingert, Gillesphey, and Aldred in the equation. As ever, I would advise caution on what you expect from them though, as Aussie clubs tend to announce that players are back about a week before they actually are so let’s not get carried away by the concept of backing Roar today, just because Goodwin is out. For what it’s worth, I do think that it makes more sense to back Roar with draw no bet than it does to back Adelaide United, particularly when you keep in mind their fatigue of late, but the 1×2 market does nothing for me here really.
Instead, I’m looking to capitalise on the goals market once again. I’ll need Adelaide United to not do anything stupid at the back, which is asking for a lot more than it sounds, but Roar’s lacking of clinical finishing makes it worth the risk. Adelaide are very good at keeping the ball in midfield, and their attacking speed tends to deter opponents from trying to get at them too much. However, Adelaide are yet to figure out how to supply Juric when he’s on the pitch. It’s not that hard, crossing to a big target man, but The Reds simply haven’t developed the knack. I feel a bit sorry for him, as it goes. He’s sometimes been hung out to dry by fans this season when he’s playing up front in a ball playing team – what’s he supposed to do? I would not be at all surprised to see him reunite with his old mentor Popovic at Victory next season but that’s another story for another day.
In short, Adelaide United are predictable. Now, that doesn’t necessarily make them easy to play against because the likes of Goodwin, both Toures (one of which isn’t in the squad – again!), Halloran (truly outstanding all season), Mauk, and Yengi are all capable of doing the unpredictable. It’s their runs and style that is predictable. The trouble is that when you rely on the individual talents of those players to get you through games, they become less effective when fatigue sets in – like it has now. A tired brain isn’t as creative, and over the past month or more, Adelaide United have been very easy to defend against for that reason. They’ve still got far better attacking players than Roar, which is another reason to not touch the 1×2 market, but they’re not clicking in the final third, and truth be told they’re getting a bit too much wrong for my liking. Even shot stopper Delianov, who was magnificent before his injury, has come back and looks very rocky.
For my money, Roar are more likely to progress from this play-off because they’re mentally tougher than The Reds are. Each player in this Roar squad has earned their place by running hard, never stopping, and consistently giving a shit. In terms of talent, they’re one of the division’s weaker teams, but in terms of collective effectiveness, they’re one of the better teams. Breaking them down is a nightmare, especially if all their main defenders are playing, but defending against them can be pretty straightforward as long as defending against pace isn’t bothersome.
I stand behind what I’ve said time and time again, though – for all of their mental strength, Roar do not have any good finishers, at least not since McDonald left for Western Sydney Wanderers. Sometimes their forwards will get it right but in general they need bad goalkeeping to help them out. They are fitter and more confident than Adelaide United right now, and their style looks more effective against The Reds than vice versa. That’s why I’m slightly edging toward them progressing. However, I also recognise that Adelaide United are far more likely to convert any chances that they come across so it’s swings and roundabouts really.
Let me put it like this. If Roar score, they’ll sit on it – and it should take them a while to get the first, if any. They’re good at sitting on it, and Adelaide will find it very hard to score in that scenario. If Adelaide score, they will still keep an attacking threat on the pitch because they’ve conceded almost every time they’ve sat back to defend a lead this season – but Roar don’t take chances well. Therefore, I’m left feeling like whichever way this one goes, backing under 2.5 goals should be the right call once more.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 107/100.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
World Cup Qualifiers – Asia:
South Korea vs Lebanon
International Friendlies:
Tanzania vs Malawi
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Mineiro vs Sao Paulo
Gremio vs Athletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino vs Fluminense
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
Bahia vs Internacional
Flamengo vs America Mineiro
Chapecoense vs Ceara
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus
Faroese Betrideildin:
HB Torshavn vs Vikingur Gota
B68 Toftir vs B36 Torshavn
EB/Streymur vs NSI Runavik
KI vs TB
Finnish Ykkonen:
PK-35 Helsinki vs KPV
RoPS vs TPS
Jippo Joensuu vs Jaro Pietarsaari
MuSa vs VPS
Gnistan vs MP
Icelandic PepsiMaxdeild:
IA vs KA
Keflavik vs HK
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sarpsborg 08 vs Brann Bergen
Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen
Lillestrom vs Haugesund
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg BK
Viking Stavanger vs Valerenga Oslo
Enjoy your free betting tips!