Sport Recife vs Fluminense
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Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A encounter between Sport Recife and Fluminense.
I’m struggling with Fluminense at the moment, folks. Sometimes they look really good, but generally they’re struggling to break teams down. Nene’s reduced role in the team fused with Marcos Paulo’s departure for Atletico Madrid has left the Fluminense attack a little too predictable, sadly. Manchester City fans will be sad to see that their wonderkid Kayky has failed to carry his team yet but hey, he’s just a kid; give him time before you judge. I think Fluminense are at fault for asking too much of their remaining youngsters whilst losing/semi-losing two key attackers at the same time, and the end result is that they look a bit easy to anticipate.
Indeed, the only team that has failed to anticipate them is hilariously their bitter rivals Flamengo, who thought that the best way to deal with Fluminense was to attack them with a high defensive line, none of which has an ounce of speed, and they wondered why Tricolor kept countering them so effectively – until it led to a goal at the end of a game that probably didn’t deserve a winner. Flamengo are the only team to fail to anticipate Fluminense though, as was amplified by Ceara last time out. They just need a bit more composure and experience when it comes to creating chances.
On top of the above, Ganso has disappeared again. I don’t know what it is with him; he’s pure Santos, through and through, only playing well when it suits him. This is when they need him the most, and he’s just not there. Gabriel Teixeira and even Andre have embarrassed him this season, and they’re just kids. Christ, even lumbering oaf Fred has up front. He might be slow, but he does at least try his best in his role to help the team out.
The above still might not be enough for me to oppose Fluminense under ordinary circumstances though. Cai Paulista has done well in attack this season, for example, as has Luiz Henrique. Bobadilla is a match-winner, even if he’s not shown it since joining. However, when you factor in that their best striker, Abel Hernandez, is out, and then that they’re in Paraguay three days from now to take on Asuncion heavyweights Cerro Porteno in the Copa Libertadores, I have all the fuel required to set this fire ablaze because Fluminense must rotate here, and they absolutely do not have the squad to do that.
It goes without saying that Sport Recife do not have a mid-week fixture next week. They consider a good campaign to be one where they avoid relegation, which speaks volumes. Nowadays, I tend to find that it’s harder to not qualify for a continental competition via Serie A than it is to qualify, and yet still Sport Recife declines. Christ, their stadium is used more on the continent than their team is! Still, Sport Recife are a very effective Serie A team. They work harder than most to get points at home, and pray for draws on the road. They’re experienced enough to make that approach work in general.
So, yes – no need to rotate for the hosts here. They’ve not won a game in just shy of a month now so it’s about time that they did, and they won’t get many better opportunities than this to make it happen. They’ve annoyed the hell out of most teams they’ve faced lately with defensive football, and looked unusually competent at it. Umberto Louzer’s style may be a tad Gusmao-esque but hey, it works. They just need to iron out their attacking because they’re not creating enough to make 0-0 games into 1-0 wins – but it’ll come with time, I feel.
Although inconsistent and temperamental, Andre and Trellez have goals in them. The problem is that only Thiago Neves knows how to make things happen, and he’s no spring chicken. Still, with their capacity to control games and nullify opponents, it seems unlikely that Fluminense will even score on this joke of a pitch in Recife, let alone win. Therefore, the advantage is firmly placed in Sport Recife’s court. I would not back them outright to win this game because they do have trouble in creating chances. However, Fluminense love to give chances away, and Sport Recife do have that bit more attacking intent in home games so I have to believe that they can make something happen here.
With draw no bet cover, backing Sport Recife at 23/220 is a risk worth taking, especially as Fluminense have mustered just one win in Recife since 2010.
Verdict: Sport Recife to win with draw no bet at 23/20.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Brazilian Serie A:
Palmeiras vs Santos
Gremio vs Internacional
Athletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino
Sao Paulo vs Bahia
America Mineiro vs Atletico Mineiro
Sport Recife vs Fluminense
Finnish Ykkonen:
KPV vs Klubi-04
Jippo Joensuu vs MuSa
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole
Dziugas Telsiai vs Riteriai
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Mjondalen vs Haugesund
Rosenborg BK vs Kristiansund
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08
Viking Stavanger vs Stromsgodset
Brann Bergen vs Tromso
Romanian Supercupa:
CFR Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Malmo FF vs Sirius
AIK Solna vs Varberg
Enjoy your free betting tips!