Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
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Today’s free tip is in the Australian A-League derby between Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory.
City embarrassed Victory on a number of occasions last season. The quality gap between the two teams had never been bigger, especially not in favour of City, keeping in mind that Victory have long been the dominant team in Melbourne.
This Victory side is different though. It’s got one of the best managers in the division, and a very good group of players now. They still have some doubts in their squad because the likes of Hamill and Ikonomidis are carrying knocks whilst Davidson is suspended because he’s an idiot sometimes. It’s a good group though. Popovic has put it together well, and each passing game makes them look stronger and better prepared.
No, they’re not perfect. I thought they did really well in their ‘Original Derby’ against Adelaide United last time out though, largely containing their opponents and threatening regularly at the other end. Barring a ten minute period of Adelaide United dominance in the second-half, Victory looked comfortable. Even when the home team had drawn level, Popovic simply introduced two new players from the bench (Velupillay and Kruse) and they scored the winning goal between them. It’s a team with an excellent manager that knows how to win matches, and a group of players with a lot of quality and experience.
Now, I’m not bold enough to go on record as to state that Victory definitely will not lose this derby match. However, I am here to say that the bookies have priced this game incorrectly. Essentially, they’ve just priced it based upon where the two teams were at last season, and given the incredible makeover at Victory pre-season, that means there’s value to be found. A defeat in the derby is possible for the visitors, but even if that does happen, how often does a Popovic team lose by two or more? Almost never. Glory did it to them recently but even against ten men and zero centre-backs they found it hard to create chances, their three goals coming from two long-range punts and one good move. City would have to be outstanding and Victory terrible for the ‘home’ (don’t forget they share a stadium) team to run riot here.
City haven’t been outstanding thus far though, at least not in the final third. For what it’s worth, I’ve been a huge admirer of how well they’ve controlled games this season. They’ve really held their own well, and asked lots of questions of their opponents with regard to movement and awareness. However, at both ends, City have let themselves down, and that’s where it counts the most. When Nabbout is your most lethal attacker – and he has been – then you know that there are issues with Leckie and MacLaren. What those issues are, I couldn’t even begin to guess, but neither are anywhere near their bewitching best right now, and it’s making City very sluggish in the final third.
In defence, they’re now trying to play without Griffiths. Griffiths was always a big holding midfielder playing in a back four but it worked because he kept things calm when they were under pressure. Without him, that calmness is gone. They are fine without him – as long as they don’t concede. To be fair to City, they almost never look like they will concede. The moment that they do though, everything changes. They fall apart at the back, defenders and goalkeeper alike making stupid passes and stupid decisions. It’s cost them on a number of occasions already this season. Therefore, it’s hard to take City seriously as 1/2 favourites here because at this moment in time, they’re simply not worth it.
Again, a home win is not beyond the realms of possibility but a handicap win in favour of the home team would require some really bizarre circumstances. Therefore, backing Victory with a +1 Asian Handicap makes sense here.
Verdict: Melbourne Victory to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 41/50.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Germinal Beerschot vs KV Oostende
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge
Zulte-Waregem vs KV Mechelen
AA Gent vs Sint-Truiden
Croatian Prva Liga:
Gorica vs Sibenik (
Rijeka vs Istra 1961
Czechia Liga 1:
Karvina vs Viktoria Plzen
Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice
Slovacko vs Baumit Jablonec
Hradec Kralove vs Sparta Prague
English Premier League:
Aston Villa vs Burnley
Leeds United vs Arsenal
French Coupe de France:
Chemin Bas d’Avignon vs Clermont Foot 38
Sochaux-Montbeliard vs FC Nantes Atlantique
Lille OSC vs Auxerre
Stade Rennais vs Lorient
German Bundesliga:
RB Leipzig vs Arminia Bielefeld
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz 05
TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin
Greuther Furth vs Augsburg
Hertha Berlin vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga 2:
Paderborn 07 vs Heidenheim
Erzgebirge Aue vs Nurnberg
Ingolstadt vs Dynamo Dresden
Hamburger SV vs Schalke 04
Hungarian Liga 1:
Ferencvaros vs Budapest Honved
MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE
Fehervar vs Mezokovesd-Zsory
Israeli State Cup:
Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Hapoel Nof HaGalil vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Hadera vs Tira
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo vs AS Roma
Bologna vs Juventus
Cagliari vs Udinese
Italian Serie B:
Ascoli vs Cremonese
Como vs Reggina
Crotone vs Pordenone
Cosenza vs Pisa
Frosinone vs SPAL
Dutch Eredivisie:
Fortuna Sittard vs FC Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam vs Vitesse Arnhem
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II
Heracles Almelo vs FC Groningen
PEC Zwolle vs FC Twente Enschede
Portuguese LIga 1:
Tondela vs Pacos de Ferreira
Portimonense vs Arouca
Gil Vicente vs Sporting Clube de Portugal
Portuguese Liga 2:
Mafra vs Academica de Coimbra
Chaves vs Farense
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Leixoes Matosinhos
Romanian Liga 1:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Universitatea Craiova
Rapid Bucharest vs Botosani
Spanish Primera Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves
Real Sociedad vs Villarreal
Barcelona vs Elche
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid
Swiss Super League:
FC Zurich vs St. Gallen
Luzern vs Servette
Swiss Challenge League:
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Wil
Turkish Super Lig:
Kasimpasa vs Sivasspor
Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor
Trabzonspor vs Hatayspor
Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor
Galatasaray vs Istanbul Basaksehir
Enjoy your free betting tips!