AA Gent vs Club Brugge
FreeHappy Boxing Day, guys and girls! Hopefully we’re all full of food, festivity, and fucking booze and ready to re-enter the betting world with today’s games! There’s quite a number of games that intrigue me today although the leagues choices are short. Do approach with caution as betting in England often resembles poking a sleeping dragon in the eye with a red-hot poker and also bear in mind that in 95% of the games being played today, the weather is very cold and the ground is snowy – this can naturally affect games in varying ways.
Anyway, today’s featured game is the Eerste Klasse game between AA Gent and Club Brugge. There’s long been a strong sense of rivalry between these two clubs and I expect to see that re-ignited in today’s game. Gent have had a good season whereas Brugge’s season has been a bit disappointing, especially of late, so they really have a lot to prove here.
AA Gent are currently in third place in the Eerste Klasse and are six points behind league leaders Anderlecht with a game in hand so they must be content with their season thus far. I’d argue that they boast the most in-depth and varied attack in the division, even moreso than Anderlecht, and that has been the catalyst behind their success this season. The pace of Slovenian striker Zlatan Ljubljankic, the skill of Israeli striker Arbeitman, and the strength of Senegalese striker Coulibaly all pose a potent threat, not to mention hard-working De Smet and emerging youngster El Ghanassy in back-up! Gent’s midfield isn’t as strong as some clubs’ midfield but Smolders, Thijs, and Azofeifa make a solid threesome with the proviso that they all feature. Defence is Gent’s weakest area with the occasional lack of concentration and inexperience costing them on a few occasions this season but overall, this Gent side has merited its lofty perch in the table and will look to further their good displays this season against rivals Club Brugge.
Gent have already won seven out of ten Eerste Klasse home games this season whilst averaging scoring over two goals per home game. The only two sides to have won at Gent this season were the two sides that are currently above them in the table – Racing Genk and Anderlecht respectively. Indeed, they’re the predominant reason behind Gent’s defensive record at home looking so poor as their record without those two games shows ten goals conceded in eight home games instead of sixteen goals conceded in ten home games. Therefore, I think it’s fair to conclude that although Gent’s defence is hindering their progress to becoming an Anderlecht-esque side, it’s still more than enough to deal with the majority of their opponents in this division.
I’d rate the current Gent side as being good enough to be on a par with Club Brugge and it aids my cause that Club Brugge haven’t won in eight consecutive visits to the Jules Ottenstadion. Indeed, Club Brugge have lost three out of their last four visits and statistics don’t favour them for this game today either. They’ve lost 50% of their away games already this season due to conceding goals far too easily and that’s a bad characteristic to take to face a potent Gent side. I’d also point to Brugge’s strikers, who don’t contribute anywhere near enough goals. Indeed, Club Brugge do enjoy playing some lovely flambuoyant football and it works wonders for them when they’re in good form. However, when they’re out of their “purple patch”, they look average and disinterested because their goals come from midfield and become very predictable as a result with no “Plan B” whatsoever.
You wouldn’t think it could get much worse for Club Brugge than a trip to face their rivals with a demoralised side in poor form, would you? Wrong! Manager Koster is now under a lot of pressure and defeat here is widely expected to see him dismissed from the club. Therefore, he’s done a couple of power-mad things that I don’t agree with lately – for instance, stating that Club Brugge need to take six wins from their next six games to get themselves out of the rut that they’re in. As if the Brugge side wasn’t under enough pressure already at their rivals but this just makes matters worse! Koster has helpfully decided to bestow this expectation just a couple of days before the game, too – I can only wonder why he’s done it. I mean, Club Brugge are missing the vast majority of their midfield for this game and that’s the one area of the game that they had a hope of controlling and preventing Gent from gaining what is becoming their usual win in this fixture. However, no Vargas for Club Brugge (playmaker and leading goalscorer!) and no Geraerts (holding midfielder) leaves Brugge horribly short in the middle of the park. Atypically, you’d expect to see Odjidja-Ofoe slot into midfield instead but incredulously, Koster has ousted the holding midfielder from this squad with no explanation, which is yet another example of Koster’s power-mad insanity. Club Brugge are somehow hoping to win this game without their best player and without the core of their midfield, let alone without their leading goalscorer! Their attack now heavily relies upon experienced Blondel and emerging Croatian talent Perisic in midfield but there’s little else to help them here. Therefore, Club Brugge look like sitting ducks here to me so I really don’t fancy their chances in this game.
Club Brugge lost their last match at home to bitter rivals Anderlecht in a lacklustre and impotent display. Neither side played well in a game that frankly could have ended 0-0 but Anderlecht’s superiority via clinical finishing was exemplified by the final whistle and that’s why Anderlecht are top of the table and Club Brugge are sixth. I expect Club Brugge to encounter similar issues against a very in-form and able Gent side today too, and why not? Gent have everything going for them and they must be able to smell Club Brugge blood with nervous players, an under-pressure manager, and an attack that isn’t scoring goals! For me, the home win here represents some good value in this game if Gent show up as they have done for the majority of this season although I would have to advise you to leave it if they drop below evens – this is a rivalry match, after all!
Team news – Club Brugge miss Vargas, Geraerts, Junior Diaz, and Odjidja-Ofoe.
Verdict: AA Gent to win at evens – why not bet on this game now at Bwin?
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Central Coast Mariners vs Adelaide United – home win at evens.
With the wheels of Adelaide’s season having temporarily come off, you have to hand the advantage to Central Coast Mariners here.
The Mariners have been strong at the Bluetongue this season and Adelaide know how difficult trips here can be with just one win here during their last five visits. Indeed, the Mariners have only lost twice at home in the A-League this season and that came during a stormy spell of form in November, losing at home to high-flying Gold Coast United and league leaders Brisbane Roar respectively. Aside from those two games, everyone else that has been to play at the Bluetongue this season has lost, ironically barring Adelaide’s last trip here earlier this year, which ended in a 1-1 draw.
However, the Mariners have notched up six goals in three games and are unbeaten in all three, winning twice along the way so momentum is good for the hosts. It helps that the hosts haven’t got any fresh injury worries so they have a largely full-strength squad to choose from today.
Adelaide themselves are missing promising midfielder Leckie and important defender Cornthwaite (aside from their own long-term absentees), which is unfortunately at the same time as they’re finally beginning to be brought back down to earth after a lengthy period of A-League football having been played in a rather over-achieving fashion. Cornthwaite is a big loss for them in defence and with Adelaide having now lost three out of their last four games and have conceded eight times along the way – an average of two goals per game – they stand a good chance of being beaten again today. Adelaide simply aren’t defending well enough, which has been the case all season away from home. Shockingly, only out-of-form Perth Glory have conceded more away goals than second-placed Adelaide with today’s visitors averaging conceding nearly two goals per away game. They’re one of the most potent sides in the division when it comes to scoring goals and that’s largely duo to the potent Flores-Van Dijk partnership in attack but even that isn’t saving them when they’re conceding so heavily and so easily.
Can the Mariners make it count today? I suppose that’s the big question! I’d have to say “yes” though, really, with an average of over two goals being scored per home game for the hosts and with the visitors not only missing an important defender but also defending like schoolkids. There’s not a lot between these two sides quality-wise but the hosts are playing quite well and score a lot at home so I do have to favour them today against misfiring Adelaide and the home win interets me as long as the odds remain at evens or above.
Team news – The Mariners miss long-term absentees Porter and Vanstrattan whereas Adelaide miss Leckie, Cornthwaite, and long-term absentees Mullen and Costa.
Verdict: Central Coast Mariners to win at evens.
Cercle Brugge vs Standard de Liege – home win with draw no bet at 11/10.
This bet largely follows the same route as my tip for the Kortrijk vs Standard de Liege game in that Standard cannot function without Defour and Tchite and they’re missing both of them for this game, the former of which is out for approximately three months. It’s a shame to see such a talented footballer suffering a second lengthy injury in the space of just a couple of years but from a betting perspective, it should prove to be very useful.
I liken Standard de Liege to Club Brugge, really; they attack well (although I’d make a case for Standard having marginally better strikers) but cannot defend. However, Standard rely on three players to provide creativity and potency in attack; Witsel, Tchite, and Defour. Captain Defour is the engine of the midfield; a box-to-box midfielder with a delightful pass on him but because of him being such a good player, Standard miss him immensely when he’s absent, which he is again today. Their midfield lacks the same power and authority without the promising midfielder and that’s what we should see today. Axel Witsel will do his utmost to cover for Defour but as taleneted as Witsel is himself, it’s simply not enough for a big club like Standard, especially with their best striker Tchite also out injured. They have some promising talents (as usual! they’re as bad as Arsenal for producing talent and not keeping it!) like Carcela in midfield and Cyriac in attack but they need to be led and I don’t see leaders in this team without Defour so we have a Standard side that is going to struggle in away games. Indeed, what side wouldn’t struggle away from home with an inability to defend and a large portion of their attack absent? At home, the fans can lift the youngsters and Standard will often glaze over their absences but on the road, they tend to get found out, just as they did at Kortrijk last match. Standard complained about an offside goal and players that were supposed to be sent off etc. but the bottom line is that they can’t cope without Defour away from home. Standard have actually lost three consecutive away games now against Zulte-Waregem, Lokeren, and Kortrijk respectively. I respect all of those sides immensely but Standard shouldn’t be losing all three of those games. It’s going to demoralise this rather youthful side and they’re now in for a very long campaign indeed, in my view.
Cercle Brugge aren’t a great side but they’re a decent side. They love to motivate themselves for games against Belgium’s elite so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a good Cercle display here. The above information is well-illustrated by the fact that Cercle have beaten Standard here for three out of Standard’s last four visits, drawing the other game. Cercle’s home record is pretty decent with five wins, three draws, and just two defeats in ten Eerste Klasse home games this season whilst averaging scoring 1.6 goals per home game so they’re a dangerous side on their day. They bizarrely lost 1-3 at home to Zulte-Waregem in their last home game but that’s Cercle Brugge for you – they blow hot and cold depending on the significance of their opponents. Nonetheless, it cannot be ignored that they’re playing good football with on-loan starlets Reynaldo, Neto, and Nuno Reis making this side more than a battling unit and making them a more potent side so they have to be taken seriously here.
I can’t argue that Cercle have better individuals than Standard because they don’t. However, what I can and will argue is that they’re a much better unit than Standard de Liege are and they tend to indicate that rather well in this fixture each year. Cercle are not an easy side to face and if the hosts take their chances today then I don’t expect them to lose this game. For me, the odds of 11/10 on Cercle winning this game with draw no bet cover are very good indeed so that’s my call here as I’ll be surprised to see Standard win this game without their two key players.
Team news – Standard de Liege miss Tchite and Defour for this game.
Verdict: Cercle Brugge to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Mechelen vs Kortrijk – lay Mechelen at 4/5.
I cannot even begin to fathom how the bookies have priced the lay option so generously here as it just doesn’t make sense. Mechelen’s home record is deceptively good but the only good sides that they’ve beaten here was a defensively-inept Standard de Liege side (who hadn’t integrated new striker Tchite properly at the time, hence them not scoring in their 1-0 defeat) and a good Lokeren side when they were rusty in the first game of the season. Mechelen have stumbled against Cercle Brugge, Racing Genk, Zulte-Waregem, Club Brugge, and even poor-travelling Sint-Truiden this season at home. The only sides that they’ve beaten aside from Standard and Lokeren are Charleroi, Germinal Beerschot, and newly-promoted Lierse SK – it’s hardly an impressive list, is it? Indeed, Mechelen have failed to beat Kortrijk at home for two consecutive seasons now and with no goals scored in two consecutive home games for Mechelen, I’m inclined to doubt their chances today, especially after sixteen days without a competitive match!
Mechelen also have problems in that they miss striker Benteke, midfielder Geudens, and defender Ghomsi, two of which are integral to this Mechelen side so how on earth they’re at evens to win this game is just beyond me.
Kortrijk are not the best travellers, admittedly – they’ve never managed to adapt properly away from their compact pitch. They just don’t score enough goals on the road, unfortunately, and a good side will punish them. However, I’d not call Mechelen a particularly good side – they’re a decent and experienced side but they’re missing important players here so a shock isn’t out of the question at all here. Indeed, Kortrijk enter this game on the back of two consecutive wins, one of which was against giants Standard de Liege, so momentum is strong for the visitors. Indeed, they’ve bagged five goals in those two games so the hosts should b concerned here. Unlike Mechelen, Kortrijk only played a week or so ago so match fitness shouldn’t be a problem here. Kortrijk tend to enjoy their away games much more when they can play their strong defensive game and with the above in mind, that is an option for them here.
Therefore, for me, I have to favour Kortrijk here. I’m not suicidal enough to back the away win here – as I said earlier, Kortrijk don’t score enough away from home. However, I won’t write it off either, especially with Ghomsi missing for the hosts in defence. Mechelen are without match practice for a lengthy period of time, they’re playing a side that are hard to beat, and their visitors are in good form, not to mention that the hosts are missing some key players. I can’t possibly overlook laying Mechelen at generous odds of 4/5 with the above in mind!
Team news – Mechelen miss Benteke, Geudens, and Ghomsi through suspension whereas Kortrijk miss Capon and have doubts over Reina, Pavlovic, and Messoudi, all of which are training currently.
Verdict: Lay Mechelen at 4/5.
Blackpool vs Liverpool – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
A lot of people are talking about laying Liverpool here and I’d agree that the odds are good enough to try it. However, I can’t recommend it myself because Liverpool will inevitably start playing better soon as they always do and I can’t escape the fact that although Blackpool are battlers and never know when they’re beaten, they’re still not good enough to be in the division and that can be a lesson hard-learned in games like this.
Blackpool won at Anfield earlier this season so expect a Liverpool side hellbent on revenge to arrive at Bloomfield Road today. Are they well-placed to get it? Well, yes, they are. Liverpool welcome back influential midfielder and captain Steven Gerrard from injury, as well as Danish defender Daniel Agger and rested striker Fernando Torres for this game so the necessary players are there for Liverpool to edge this one as I think they will. They’ve been playing well in recent times domestically (barring their defensive mishaps in the Newcastle game) and have been a shade unfortunate. However, to deny that they’re a better side than Blackpool would be foolish and even as a Manchester United fan, I’m certainly not going to make that argument!
Blackpool will fight hard in this game though; we all know that. The battling spirit was what won Newcastle their game against Liverpool lately – well, that and defensive gaffes – so I expect Blackpool to do some damage today. Ian Holloway’s men are always well motivated and with Liverpool’s defence shaky at best, I do expect the hosts to score in this game. Let’s face it – they’ve not played in a home game this season that they’ve not scored in and they’ve hosted the likes of Everton and Manchester City so they are capable. They’re missing Adam and Harewood for this game, which are quite hefty attacking blows for Blackpool, unfortunately. Blackpool do still have enough going forward to score a goal in this game but rather than go for both sides to score like I did in the reversal of this fixture, I’m going to side towards over 2.5 goals. All of Blackpool’s home games this season have gone over 2.5 goals and Liverpool’s last four Premier League games have all gone over 2.5 goals too so with Gerrard returning to lead the scousers today, you have to feel another over 2.5 goals game is in the offering here.
I’d urge people to check Blackpool’s absentee list before laying Liverpool in this game but over 2.5 goals remains my call for this game either way. I think absences and returning players will make the difference between the two sides here but either way, we should see plenty of goals in this one so over 2.5 goals at 4/5 is a good price in my eyes.
Team news – Blackpool miss Gilks, Adam, Harewood, Almond, Clarke, Martin, Basham, Sylvestre, and Rachubka whereas Liverpool miss Carragher and Spearing.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Bolton Wanderers vs West Bromwich Albion – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Bolton have ex-Wolverhampton Wanderers midfielder Mark Davies available today to face his former local rivals West Bromwich Albion having served his one-game suspension. However, that’s not enough for me to take the rather obvious home win at evens for this game as they’ve been foiled by worse sides than West Brom at home this season and although Bolton are scoring a lot, they’re defending like idiots at times so I’ll avoid the home win here. Nonetheless, it cannot be ignored that the Elmander-Davies partnership in attack is working wonders under new boss Owen Coyle and as a result, only Manchester United have scored more goals at home than Bolton this season so they’re to be given respect for this game. Seven out of their nine Premier League home games this season have gone over 2.5 goals due to their never-day-die attitude and blossoming attack although it’s also worth noting that only the bottom three clubs in the division (Wigan Athletic, Wolverhampton Wanderers, and West Ham United) have conceded more at home than Bolton so they’re very much the polar opposite of other Bolton sides to have preceded them as Owen Coyle firmly makes his mark.
West Brom themselves are an over 2.5 goals side with Di Matteo teaching his side to play football the proper way so we should see an entertaining game here. West Brom have already foiled Manchester United and Arsenal respectively away from home this season, winning at the latter, so West Brom should be given a wide berth when it comes to betting against them in such games. They’ve lost five out of nine on the road as their “beautiful football” tactic takes them down dangerous roads away from home as it doesn’t always work out – just ask Arsenal! However, only Blackburn Rovers have conceded more on the road than West Brom this season in the Premier League and only Manchester United and Arsenal have scored more away from home than West Brom have in the Premier League this season so you can see why I call West Brom an “over 2.5 goals” team. Six out of West Brom’s last seven away games have gone over 2.5 goals and with important defender Olsson still missing but key attackers Brunt and Odemwingie returning from injury for this game, over 2.5 goals looks an attractive proposition at 4/5.
Team news – Bolton miss Cohen, Davis, O’Brien, Gardner, and Samuel whereas West Brom miss Olsson.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Try as I might, I still cannot be convinced by Houllier’s Aston Villa. They do have some good kids coming through the ranks (as ever – they must be one of the most consistent sides in the Prem for producing homegrown talent!) but Houllier isn’t improving where Martin O’Neill left off. Houllier’s sides look weak in defence and somewhat unconvincing in attack. Houllier falling out with Carew wasn’t a good move, in my view – Villa need a target man to be a threat with their pacey wingers – so Villa aren’t playing as well as they could be. Laughably, rumour has it that Houllier wants to bring Owen in from Manchester United but I’ve absolutely no idea why he’d want him given that he lacks most things that a striker needs nowadays. The only decent games Villa have played under Houllier were their games against Manchester United and West Bromwich Albion respectively, the first of which I dismiss as everyone gears themselves up to play a big club and the second I dismiss because everyone is motivated for a derby – let’s not forget that West Brom didn’t show up in the first half either. Villa are still scoring goals, to their credit, although let’s hope Ashley Young is fit enough to start as he’s sure to cause problems today. The most important statistic that I can reveal here, however, is that Villa’s last four home games have gone over 2.5 goals consecutively and I don’t see any reason for that to change today as Houllier attempts to abandon the tough defence that O’Neill created in favour of an all-out-attack style.
Spurs are a bit of an enigma in the Premier League, unfortunately. They can outscore most sides in the division on their day but their day is somewhat rare this season, especially away from home. They’re not losing many away games, admittedly, but they’re not winning many either – that’s what put me off the away win here at 5/4, incidentally. Spurs will be happy to welcome back star midfielder Rafael van der Vaart and will be hoping that in-form defender William Gallas passes a late fitness test. That said, Kaboul returns from injury and will ease at least some of Redknapp’s seemingly eternally defensive headaches. Constant alterations in defence are never good and Spurs know it too, hence them conceding in every away game this season. Their attack is dangerous, especially with the afore-mentioned Van der Vaart back in the team, and that fused with defensive changes tend to mean that a good number of Spurs’ games go over 2.5 goals. Indeed, three out of their last five away games have gone over 2.5 goals and the two that weren’t over 2.5 goals had two goals apiece in so you can see where I’m coming from here. Defoe being back in the team helps Spurs an awful lot as his pace is terrifying, not to mention his finishing, although that bizarrely only tends to show when Redknapp is his manager!
Nonetheless, this game could and should be over 2.5 goals today. Neither side is great defensively and both sides play attacking football with pacey wingers. This game has the potential to go over 2.5 goals and at 4/5, I’m tempted enough to call it here, especially as six out of the last eight meetings between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals.
Team news – Villa miss Delph, Petrov, Sidwell, and Weimann whilst having doubts over Ashley Young and Luke Young. Spurs miss Gallas, King, Woodgate, Huddlestone, and O’Hara.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Wigan Athletic – home win at evens.
Wolves can be thankful that Jarvis, Berra, and Jones have passed late fitness tests or they’d be suffering depth-wise in this game. As it happens, they now have a talented winger, reliable centre midfielder, and decent centre-back available to them. A strong Wolves side is a dangerous Wolves side, especially at Molineux. Statistically speaking, only Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Sunderland, and Liverpool have won more home games than Wolves have in the Premier League this season so I wouldn’t be too hasty to dismiss them because of their league placing here. Indeed, Wolves have been playing well lately, especially at home. They’ve beaten Manchester City, Sunderland, and Birmingham City in their last five home games and were unlucky to lose a 2-3 epic game with Bolton Wanderers and were unlucky to lose 0-2 against Arsenal after conceding very early goals and not recovering until the second-half. McCarthy is a good and honest manager; his side know it too. They play for him and for the badge and it’s a great credit to their manager that they play so well. Their only fault can be that they don’t score enough goals as a whole but they’ve started scoring goals consistently at home with eight goals bagged in their last five home games. Indeed, only Arsenal have left Molineux this season without conceding a goal so Wolves should be taken seriously here as they’re very hard to beat and will hang onto any lead desperately.
Wigan welcome back on-loan midfielder Cleverley, which is important for them as they’re one of the smaller squads in the division depth-wise. However, they still miss Thomas, Figueroa, Boyce, Di Santo, McCarthy, and Moses, so their problems are far from over all over the pitch, really. Wigan claimed a credible draw at Everton lately although that was largely due to Everton not scoring rather than Wigan matching them, in my view. It cannot be overlooked that Wigan have only won once away from home in the Premier League this season, however, losing half of those games. They don’t score enough goals away from home and that’s no surprise with lanky striker Di Santo still injured. Wigan can be compact in defence in sporadic bursts but they’re generally leaky and without Figueroa at full-back, I expect Wolves to exploit them down that flank and do damage from there. Wigan will be able to counter-attack well with Cleverley and Rodallega posing pacey threats but Wolves are a solid unit in defence and I think it’ll either take something very special or a terrible bit of defending for Wigan to score here.
With the above in mind, I have to take the home win at evens. This is a relegation six-pointer, admittedly, but Wolves have more options available to them than Wigan do. I like Martinez but McCarthy is a better and more experienced manager and that should be key here too. For me, the home win at evens is appealing although I’d leave it if the odds drop.
Team news – Wolves miss Craddock, Guedioura, Henry, and Kightly whilst having doubts over Doyle, Mancienne, Milijas, and Mouyokolo. Wigan miss Honduran duo Thomas and Figueroa, Boyce, Di Santo, McCarthy, and Moses for this game.
Verdict: Wolverhampton Wanderers to win at evens.
Newcastle United vs Manchester City – Andy Carroll to score anytime at 7/5.
Newcastle welcome back Coloccini, Harper, and Williamson, which should lend stability to their defence in this game. However, their defence doesn’t interest me in this game; it’s their attack that does. A lot of the media have been praising England international striker Carroll lately and rightfully so; he’s been a revelation this season. He’s been linked with a move to Spurs and that has to be flattering for the young Geordie lad. He’s a real handful with good off-the-ball movement, strength, and aerial prowess and will be a handful for any side at the moment, providing he gets the service he requires. The second season is often the test as to how good a player actually is so we’ll see where he’s at next season. However, for now, he’s doing very well and should be treated with respect currently.
Manchester City have problems in defence, too. They score goals well away from home but defensively, they’re often susceptible, in my view. City have the potential to win this game but much like my view on Newcastle’s defensive situation, I don’t really give a shit regarding that aspect of the game.
My focus is on the missing Kolo Toure. City are susceptible with him, let alone without. I don’t see anyone there that can deal with Carroll aerially in this game so I think Newcastle will have a lot of joy from set pieces and crosses. Therefore, my tip is for Carroll to score anytime at 7/5 rather than entering the minefield of the 1×2 market here! For what it’s worth, though – City probably should win this game.
Team news – Newcastle miss Ben Arfa, Gosling, and Ryan Taylor whilst having doubts over Ameobi. Man City miss Kolo Toure for this game.
Verdict: Andy Carroll to score anytime at 7/5.
Ipswich Town vs Watford – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Conor Wickham’s return to the Ipswich team appears to have buoyed them and the teenage prodigy will hope to inspire Ipswich to a win today against Watford too. To beat Watford, however, you need to score a lot of goals and Ipswich don’t look capable of that currently so something has to give way here. Watford have been immense lately, especially when it comes to scoring goals, and especially away from home. Indeed, Watford are the top goalscoring side in the Championship away from home with an average of two goals scored per away game and they’re playing well to boot. Ipswich can score goals on their day but their defence has been particularly weak late despite their advantage always being the formidable Portman Road.
However, rather than enter the difficult 1×2 market for this game (despite Watford winning with DNB at 6/5 being very tempting!), I think over 2.5 goals is a safer bet. Ipswich’s last three home games have all gone over 2.5 goals and five out of Watford’s last six away games have gone over 2.5 goals too. I expect an open game with plenty of goals here so over 2.5 goals at 4/5 should really come in today.
Team news – Watford miss McGinn for this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Cardiff City vs Coventry City – both sides to score at 5/6.
Cardiff welcome back integral striker Bothroyd and could hand a debut to long-term absentee Chris Riggott in defence so we may finally see a return to form for Cardiff as they bolster their ranks. They’re without a win in four consecutive games and need to get back on the winning trail rapidly if they intend to push for promotion. They’ve scored in seven out of ten home games in the Championship this season so asking them to score a goal in this game shouldn’t be too much for them today. The firepower is definitely there for the Welsh club; it’s simply a matter of making it count.
Coventry aren’t mugs away from home but they’ll struggle without Gunnarsson today. He’s been an important part of their midfield this season and although Coventry welcome back experienced holding midfielder Lee Carsley, it’s still not going to fill the void that the absent Icelandic player has left with his absence. That said, Coventry also have Clingan and Baker available to them after injury so they do have options in midfield and that should aid them in their quest to take points off Cardiff today. Coventry have been good away from home this season, losing just four times in eleven away games. Indeed, Coventry have scored in eight of those eleven away games and have proven to be a force that I hadn’t reckoned with them being this season so my respect goes to them here.
With their above in mind, I think we’re in for a good game here. I’m quite tempted to take Cardiff to win with Bothroyd back at 4/6 but knowing the dubious Championship, I’ve decided to avoid it. Backing both teams to score at 5/6 with the above in mind appeals to me a lot though so that’s my call for this game.
Team news – Cardiff have doubts over Hudson, Koumas, and Gyepes whereas Coventry miss Gunnarsson.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Verdict: Barnsley to win at 13/8.
Motherwell vs Rangers – under 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Craig Brown’s departure should see Motherwell’s decent home form nosedive in due course but I think they’ve got enough to hold their own today, especially as their pitch isn’t exactly friendly. Indeed, I’m fairly confident that moles would enjoy this pitch more than footballers and that has been a strong weapon of Motherwell’s in their home games for some time and should be so again today. Motherwell miss Jennings in midfield, which is a blow for them from a defensive perspective so I do have to favour a superior Rangers side to emerge victorious in this game. However, I don’t see a heavy win here as this is still a tough away game for Rangers and their record here shows that with four consecutive draws in this fixture. Indeed, all four of those games have gone under 2.5 goals so be careful if backing Rangers here. However, Rangers’ superiority and defensive ability should enable to win this game in a low-scoring encounter. Given the history of this game and the idea of Motherwell adjusting to life after Brown, I think under 2.5 goals is rather generously priced at 5/4 so that’s my call here.
Team news – Motherwell miss Jennings for this game.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Anderlecht.
Recommended bets:
Anderlecht and AA Gent at 2/1.
Cercle Brugge DNB and Tottenham Hotspur at 3/1.
An over 2.5 goals treble with Bolton vs West Brom, Blackpool vs Liverpool, and Ipswich vs Watford at 5/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Adelaide United (6) 2-1
Brisbane Roar vs Gold Coast United (7) under 2.5 goals
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Cercle Brugge vs Standard de Liege (5) 2-1, draw no bet
AA Gent vs Club Brugge (6) 2-1
Anderlecht vs Lierse SK (9) -1.5 handicap
Mechelen vs Kortrijk (5) 0-0
English Premier League:
Fulham vs West Ham United (5) 1-0
Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City (6) 1-1
Blackpool vs Liverpool (4) over 2.5 goals
Bolton Wanderers vs West Bromwich Albion (6) over 2.5 goals
Everton vs Birmingham City (7) 2-1
Manchester United vs Sunderland (6) 2-0
Newcastle United vs Manchester City (4) 2-2
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Wigan Athletic (6) 1-0
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur (4) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
English Championship:
Crystal Palace vs Norwich City (4) over 2.5 goals
Portsmouth vs Millwall (6)
Queens Park Rangers vs Swansea City (5) under 2.5 goals
Reading vs Bristol City (5)
Sheffield United vs Hull City (5) over 2.5 goals
Leicester City vs Leeds United (6) over 2.5 goals
Ipswich Town vs Watford (5) over 2.5 goals
Cardiff City vs Coventry City (5) both sides to score
Derby County vs Doncaster Rovers (5)
Barnsley vs Burnley (6) under 2.5 goals
English League One:
Charlton Athletic vs Southampton (6)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Brighton & Hove Albion (3) draw no bet
Leyton Orient vs Milton Keynes Dons (5)
Huddersfield Town vs Hartlepool United (7)
Bournemouth vs Plymouth Argyle (6)
Exeter City vs Swindon Town (4) over 2.5 goals
English League Two:
Southend United vs Barnet (5)
Aldershot Town vs Gillingham (6)
Stevenage vs Oxford United (7)
Shrewsbury Town vs Bury (6) both sides to score
Wycombe Wanderers vs Hereford United (7)
Torquay United vs Cheltenham Town (4) draw no bet
Northampton Town vs Burton Albion (6)
Scottish Premier League:
Celtic vs St.Johnstone (6) 2-1
Dundee United vs Hamilton Academicals (6) 2-1
Hibernian vs Aberdeen (6) 1-0
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs St.Mirren (6) 2-0
Motherwell vs Rangers (7) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!