AC Milan vs Juventus
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Serie A game between heavyweights AC Milan and Juventus at the Giuseppe Meazza San Siro. Lots of people are being drawn into the 1×2 market but I can’t say that it interests me here!
However, what does interest me is taking both sides to score in this game. I watched AC Milan’s game at Siena lately and they were immense. They sat back a little in the second-half and were occasionally caught out by Siena but Milan thoroughly deserved their win. The addition of Muntari to their midfield has given them a timely boost of energy and it really showed against Siena. He gives them a class and tenacity that they’ve been lacking due to injuries and I think that he could make a big impact here.
The talk before this game has all been about Ibrahimovic’s suspension. I agree that he’s a big part of Milan’s attack but come on – are we seriously suggesting that he’s the only one who can score goals for Milan? Of course not! Robinho may only play well when he wants to but he’s a terrific player, as is Pato. There are goals in this team, that’s for sure.
However, I have to feel that Juventus will have their chances too. Thiago Silva has been immense at the back for Milan – one of the best performers this season, in my view – but his new defensive partner Mexes is a little crazy. What I mean is that the chances of him getting sent off or giving a penalty away are higher than most in Serie A. He’s dedicated, quick, and strong but he makes daft decisions sometimes and I think that’ll cost Milan here.
Can Juventus capitalise, though? I don’t really know. A couple of months ago, I wouldn’t have hesitated in giving Juventus a shot with draw no bet here. However, they’ve looked stretched of late and are struggling to find the goal. They’ve got some terrific players and are playing with great spirit but I don’t see them scoring enough to win the game, good as they are.
Additionally, we have to consider here that Juventus’ defence is a little vulnerable. It doesn’t often show because Juventus’ midfield provide good protection for it, as does the superb Buffon in goal, but when exposed they tend to struggle and I expect Milan to test them here.
All in all, I expect a good game here. I don’t think we’ll see a winner but I’m obviously not in any position to rule it out entirely. I think both sides will be more interested in avoiding defeat than they would be pushing on for a victory in this game. However, I do think that the gaps are there to allow for both sides to score and at 5/6 I think we’ve got a good value bet on our hands!
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
VVV Venlo vs Heracles Almelo – lay Heracles Almelo at 9/10.
I can’t really get to grips with these odds. I’m a big fan of Heracles and they’ve been impressive of late. They outplayed bitter local rivals Twente in the derby and deservedly won and they just about deserved to beat Roda JC Kerkrade lately despite a slow first-half. I admire their tenacity, their belief, and attacking style a lot.
However, Heracles are the absolute epitome of a home side. They are masters at exploiting their opponents on their artificial turf but subsequently get caught out a lot on the road. Apply the right amount of pressure against them and defend solidly against them and Heracles really struggle, just as they did in the first-half of their game with Roda. Heracles’ defence is not a strong area of theirs; only their attack is. Therefore, they’re going to have to score goals here to win this game and outscoring their opponents is something that Heracles have managed very few times this season whilst playing away from home.
I don’t like VVV Venlo; I think the number of quality players they have is capped at around one. However, it cannot be denied that they’ve played well lately and played with great confidence. Who knows – perhaps the sale of star attacker Musa to CSKA Moscow has forced VVV into playing as a team and not relying on one player again now. Either way, VVV are playing well and not only have they won three out of their last five games but they’ve only lost three times at home in the Eredivisie this season. Hell, Groningen, Roda JC, and Feyenoord have all lost here over the past few months and PSV and Ajax have only drawn here.
Therefore, I don’t understand the short odds on Heracles. They’re a good side that I like a lot but I don’t see why they’re so short against VVV so my call is to lay the perpetually poor travellers Heracles.
Verdict: Lay Heracles Almelo at 9/10.
Roda JC Kerkrade vs De Graafschap – home win with -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Ah, here we have another “home side” – Roda JC. Away from home, they play well when they feel like it, which isn’t very often. However, at home, this side plays well and with Syrian striker Malki in the form of his life, it’s hard to bet against Roda right now.
Now, Roda have only lost three times at home in the Eredivisie this season and there’s a connection between the three sides that have won here. All three of those sides (AFC Ajax Amsterdam, Heerenveen, and RKC Waalwijk respectively) all play with great spirit, close down their opponents quickly, and attack with pace – Roda hate those aspects!
However, Roda have beaten everyone else they’ve played at home this season and the sides that they tend to beat here are the ones that try to sit back and hold their own. This game really suits Roda JC because De Graafschap will do just that. Helpfully, De Graafschap are not only being obliterated in each game against good opponents now but they’re also playing really badly. It seems like their motivation is non-existent against superior sides. Roda JC may be an attainable target for them but they’ve not got the quality nor the confidence to concern me here.
If Roda feel like it, they should beat the -1.5 handicap comfortably here against a side that they’re frankly some distance ahead of.
Verdict: Roda JC Kerkrade to beat the -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
Espanyol vs Levante – home win at 4/5.
My rule of thumb is to not back Espanyol at less than 4/5 and I stick to that here. Pandiani and Luis Garcia may be back for the Catalans hosts but this side does not possess a good enough striker to make me back them at shorter odds than 4/5.
I like Pochettino’s managerial style and his ability to motivate his players. Espanyol play good football under his stewardship and play with tremendous spirit. This is one of the hardest away sides in Spain to take on and I won’t bet against them at home often. Nonetheless, I went against them with Zaragoza lately because Espanyol were too short against an arising Zaragoza side and Zaragoza capitalised on Espanyol’s gluttony of wasted chances by winning 0-2.
I don’t see Espanyol making the same mistake here. Verdu is back for them to pull the strings in midfield and Levante are on a downward spiral. I’m not just talking about their form but their actual displays are poor. They’re looking weak in front of goal and as vulnerable as ever at the back. Levante aren’t as good as Espanyol, contrary to what the Primera Liga table would have you believe. I believe there’s a significant quality gap here and with Verdu back for Espanyol, it’s hard to overlook them here.
I expect a scrappy game with plenty of cards between two battling sides. However, I think Espanyol are good enough to take advantage of a sliding Levante side here and I’m interested in taking it so long as the odds remain at 4/5 or above.
Verdict: Espanyol to win at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Slovan Liberec, Manchester City, Roda JC Kerkrade, SL Benfica, Karabukspor.
Recommended bets:
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Colon de Santa Fe vs Olimpo (6) 1-0
Estudiantes de la Plata vs Independiente (6) 1-0
Argentinos Juniors vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (5) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Wellington Phoenix (5) 1-1
Gold Coast United vs Melbourne Victory (5) 1-1
Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar (6) 1-2
Austrian Bundesliga:
Admira Wacker vs SV Mattersburg (6) 1-0
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna (5) 1-1
Austria Vienna vs SV Kapfenberg (7) 2-1
Wiener Neustadt vs Wacker Innsbruck (6) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent vs Mons (7) 2-1
Germinal Beerschot vs OH Leuven (4) 0-1
Kortrijk vs Lokeren (5) 1-2
Westerlo vs Mechelen (5) 1-0
Cercle Brugge vs Zulte-Waregem (6) 1-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Rangers vs Cobreloa (5) 2-2
O’Higgins vs Universidad de Chile (5) 1-2
Deportes Iquique vs Huachipato (6) 1-1
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Concepcion (7) over 2.5 goals
La Serena vs Santiago Wanderers (6) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
Patriotas vs Deportivo Pasto (5) 1-0
Atletico Huila vs Independiente Medellin (4) 1-1
La Equidad Bogota vs Cucuta Deportivo (7) 1-0
Once Caldas Manizales vs Millonarios Bogota (6) 2-1
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Deportes Tolima (6) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Sibenik vs Inter Zapresic (6) 2-1
Lucko vs NK Zagreb (5) 0-0
Slaven Koprivnica vs Cibalia Vinkovci (7) 1-0
Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 (4) 1-1
Karlovac vs Dinamo Zagreb (7) 0-1
Cypriot Division 1:
Apollon Limassol vs Omonia Nicosia (5) 1-2
AEK Larnaca vs Aris Limassol (7) 2-1
Olympiakos Nicosia vs Alki Larnaca (5) 2-2
Anagennisi Deryneia vs AEL Limassol (7) 0-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Banik Ostrava vs Jablonec (7) 1-2
Slovacko vs Sigma Olomouc (6) 0-0
Slovan Liberec vs Marila Pribram (8) 2-0
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Manta vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 1-2
Independiente vs El Nacional Quito (6) 1-1
English Premier League:
Chelsea vs Bolton Wanderers (5) 1-0
Newcastle United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (7) 2-0
Queens Park Rangers vs Fulham (6) 1-1
West Bromwich Albion vs Sunderland (5) 0-1
Wigan Athletic vs Aston Villa (6) 0-0
Manchester City vs Blackburn Rovers (9) -1.5 handicap
English Championship:
West Ham United vs Crystal Palace (7) over 2.5 goals
Birmingham City vs Nottingham Forest (7)
Watford vs Southampton (5) both sides to score
Portsmouth vs Leeds United (6)
Middlesbrough vs Reading (6)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Ipswich Town (7)
Burnley vs Millwall (7)
Doncaster Rovers vs Peterborough United (4)
Bristol City vs Blackpool (6)
Coventry City vs Barnsley (5)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio (5) 2-2
MyPa Anjalankoski vs FC Lahti (4) 1-2
French Ligue 1:
AC Ajaccio vs Dijon FCO (6) 1-0
Auxerre vs Saint-Etienne (5) 1-1
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (6) 2-1
Montpellier HSC vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) 1-0
OGC Nice vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (5) 1-0
Valenciennes vs Lorient (6) 1-1
Olympique Lyonnais vs Paris Saint-Germain (6) 0-0
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 vs Kaiserslautern (7) 2-0
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg (7) 1-0
Koln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6) 1-1
VfL Wolfsburg vs Hoffenheim (6) 2-1
Augsburg vs Hertha BSC Berlin (6) 0-0
Werder Bremen vs Nurnberg (7) 2-1
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Hapoel Acre (7) 1-0
Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv (6) 2-1
MS Ashdod vs Hapoel Petah Tikva (7) 2-1
Hapoel Rishon Lezion vs Maccabi Netanya (5) 0-1
Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva (6) 1-0
Ironi Ramat Hasharon vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv (6) 1-2
Italian Serie A:
Genoa vs Parma (6) 2-1
AC Milan vs Juventus (5) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Jaguares vs Estudiantes Tecos (6) 1-0
Monterrey vs Puebla (7) 2-0
Pachuca vs Tigres UANL (7) 1-0
San Luis vs Atlas (5) 0-0
Atlante vs America (5) 1-1
Tijuana vs Toluca (6) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag (6) 2-1
VVV Venlo vs Heracles Almelo (4) 2-2
Roda JC Kerkrade vs De Graafschap (8) 2-0
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen (5) 2-1
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Nacional Asuncion vs Sol de America (7) 2-0
Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Independiente FBC vs Cerro Porteno (6) 0-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala vs Zaglebie Lubin (5) 1-2
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (6) 2-1
Polonia Warsaw vs Widzew Lodz (6) 1-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Academica de Coimbra vs SL Benfica (8) over 2.5 goals
Scottish Premier League:
St.Mirren vs Aberdeen (5) 0-0
Celtic vs Motherwell (7) 2-0
Hearts vs Dundee United (6) 1-1
Kilmarnock vs Hibernian (5) 1-1
St.Johnstone vs Dunfermline Athletic (6) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Racing Santander vs Sporting Gijon (5) 1-1
Real Betis Balompie vs Getafe (6) 1-1
Malaga vs Real Zaragoza (7) 2-0
Espanyol vs Levante (7) 1-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Murcia vs Real Valladolid (6)
Sabadell vs Deportivo La Coruna (7)
Alcorcon vs Cartagena (7)
Guadalajara vs Villarreal II (5)
Alcoyano vs Huesca (5)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Deportivo Xerez (6)
Girona vs Numancia (5)
Elche vs Recreativo de Huelva (4)
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs Young Boys Bern (6) 1-1
Basel vs FC Zurich (7) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
St.Gallen vs Bruhl (7) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Karabukspor vs Ankaragucu (8) 2-0
Samsunspor vs Bursaspor (5) 0-0
Manisaspor vs Gaziantepspor (6) 1-1
Eskisehirspor vs Fenerbahce (6) 0-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
River Plate Montevideo vs Liverpool Montevideo (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Cerro Largo vs Montevideo Wanderers (6) 1-0
Bella Vista vs Fenix (6) 1-1
El Tanque Sisley vs Penarol (5) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!