AC Milan vs SSC Napoli
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Serie A game between AC Milan and SSC Napoli at the San Siro. I wonder how many people reading this would imagine this game would be first versus second in the table at this stage in the season? I certainly didn’t!
Hosts AC Milan have surprised me a lot because their side was frankly old and immobile. They had no money – apparently – and few prospects for the future. Their experience and individual ability was never an issue so now that they’ve added some real finesse and creativity to the team with the acquisitions of Cassano, Ibrahimovic, and Robinho respectively, they finally look the force that a club of their stature should be. I still find it very hard to bet for or against AC Milan because although their defence is vulnerable, especially against pace, they still present such a dominant threat in attack that anything can happen in their games. AC Milan’s defence has looked a little susceptible lately, conceding in three out of their last four games, and it’s starting to impact their displays. They’ve got a big problem in the full-back positions today with Antonini and Zambrotta absent, not to mention fellow defender Bonera. Playmaker Pirlo is close to a return and although Inzaghi is out, AC Milan still have the option to play the “we’ll score more goals than you” tactic and it may have to be deployed here.
Visitors Napoli have been strong this season with Uruguayan striker Cavani bedding in very well indeed, bagging twenty goals in twenty-six appearances for Napoli this season. Add to that the creativity of Slovakian midfielder Hamsik and the pace of Argentinian striker Lavezzi and you have a lethal trio, although I do have to point out that Lavezzi is suspended for this game. With options in midfield such as Gargano and Sosa to support their lethal attackers, it’s no surprise that just four sides have scored more goals than Napoli have in Serie A this season. Napoli’s defence has been strong too and away from home, just four sides have conceded less goals than they have this season so again, they’re a strong side.
There’s a lot of similarities between these two sides – prestigious history, solid defence, experienced players mingled with exciting individuals, and both have proven Serie A managers. I expect a close game with the above in mind and I’d hate to have to call a winner here, although I’d probably side with AC Milan purely because Napoli haven’t been long back from their trip to Spain a few days ago. Both sides have scored in five out of their last seven meetings at either ground and given how well both sides are playing, I think backing both sides to score tonight is a good value bet.
Team news – AC Milan miss Inzaghi, Bonera, Ambrosini, Antonini, Zambrotta, and Merkel whilst having doubts over Pirlo whereas SSC Napoli miss Grava, Cribari, and Lavezzi.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Olympiakos Nicosia vs Alki – over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Ordinarily, the home win would interest me here but this is a big game with few matches remaining and the relegation-threatened visitors are in good form so I’ll avoid the 1×2 market.
However, over 2.5 goals appeals to me for this game too. Olympiakos are real battlers and despite this being their first season back in the top flight of Cypriot football, they firmly believe that a European place is possible and they will push for that in this game. They enter this match on the back of a very impressive win at a well-organised Ethinkos Achnas side to boost their morale and will look to take Alki down today to claim their dream place in the qualifiers for European competition. Seven out of Olympiakos’ last nine Division 1 games have gone over 2.5 goals because they attack well and score goals but also defend naively at times and I don’t see anything to suggest that this approach will change today.
Visitors Alki have adopted a similar approach lately and bring tremendous momentum into this game as a result of three consecutive wins in all competitions, the most recent of which was a heroic “home” win against giants APOEL Nicosia, which was amusingly their first “home” win of the season. Alki really believe that they can beat the dreaded drop and although I rate them as an inferior side in comparison to hosts Olympiakos, they’re very much a tough side to handle currently with five consecutive games going over 2.5 goals due to their tenacity and goal threat. Therefore, Alki are coming here to take three points and should be treated with caution.
To me, this should be a very open game between two sides with everything to gain so I’m expecting plenty of goals. In addition to this, Alki miss defenders Blanco and Christou, both of which are important, not to mention Venezuelan midfielder Gonzalez. However, with the likes of Serjao in their ranks (albeit temporarily), they should still provide a goal threat in this game. For me, this game has over 2.5 goals all over it and it’s priced rather generously considering the importance of the game.
Team news – Alki miss Brenner, Christou, Andreas Constantinou, Pelendritis, Gonzalez, Blanco, and Ntomprasinovits.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Banik Ostrava vs Sparta Prague – away win at 6/5.
Banik Ostrava sold defender Neuwirth to Viktoria Plzen, defender Koukal to Marila Pribram, and striker Pilik to Marila Pribram during the winter break without really bringing anyone in so they’re not as strong as normal. The latter two were squad rotation players but Neuwirth’s a big defender for Banik Ostrava; they’re going to miss him. This departure may seem somewhat minor at the moment but in the grand scheme of things, it seems that Bank’s talent is gradually leaving Ostrava and it’s starting to become obvious. They lost strikers Vydra and Micola just under a year ago, as well as midfielder Licka, and now Neuwirth has gone too. I look at their current team and wonder how much longer trips to Ostrava will be feared ones for. There’s an over-reliance on Frejlach in midfield and although Nando has had a terrific season for the hosts, he’s not getting any younger so where will this team be in a year or two without good signings? Their attackers are a bit too similar – Varadi and Zeher are both quick but lack composure whereas Senkerik isn’t particularly quick nowadays but isn’t dominant in the air either. Banik are very one-dimensional and if they weren’t hard to break down defensively then I’d really fear for their survival in the Gambrinus Liga, big club though they unquestionably are. Only three clubs have scored less goals at home than Banik this season and it’s worth noting that all three of them are below them in the table and I’m fairly confident that two of them will be relegated so Banik need to be very careful here.
They’re fortunate to face Sparta Prague after they lost a battling UEFA Europa League game at Anfield a few days ago against Liverpool as Sparta could have some weary legs. They’re also fortunate to face them with star striker Wilfried having left to ply his trade in the Netherlands with Vitesse Arnhem. However, Sparta are still the better of these two sides and now that they’ve signed Pekhart and Keric to replace their departed Ivorian striker, they look a side back in business. It’s going to take a little time before they’re firing on all cylinders but the astute move from Chovanec was to sign two proven players at this level and thus they know what they’re up against. Based on what Sparta showed in their games against Liverpool, they really need those two to score goals as that’s the only part of their game that they’re struggling with. They also signed experienced defender Zapotocny who should be a great signing for them, especially with the eternally-angry Repka at the back, which gives them arguably the best defence in the Czech Republic. This defence – barring Zapotocny – has been together for a couple of years now and they look very solid as a result, hence Sparta’s success, especially away from home this season where they’ve won five out of seven games.
For me, it’s not even questionable as to which of these two sides is the better one – it’s Sparta Prague by a mile. However, for whatever bizarre reason, Ostrava remains a tough away game so do approach this one with caution. Sparta need to take their chances much better than they did in the two legs against Liverpool lately and for that they need their new signings to be on the ball. Chovanec is a wily master of the game though – I’m sure they’ll be raring to go in no time. If Prague get the first goal in this game then I don’t see Banik having the firepower to come back into it. However, a 0-0 is regrettably possible so again, do approach this game with caution – Sparta haven’t won here since 2006. That said, Sparta have a good chance of ending that little run today so I’ll give them their due respect as they’ve been fairly generously priced at 6/5, especially considering that a strong part of Banik’s defence – Neuwirth – is no longer there…
Verdict: Sparta Prague to win at 6/5.
Malaga vs Almeria – both sides to score at 4/5.
Malaga’s spending spree in January and vast wealth behind the club appears to have sent the hosts tonight into a downward spiral that has seen them plummet to the foot of the Primera Liga table. Having talented individuals in your side doesn’t necessarily make your team a talented one and Malaga are discovering that the hard way. In my opinion, their boss Pellegrini is one of the best in the division, given time to work his magic. However, Malaga throwing money around surely can’t have been his idea because he prefers to bring players through rather than sign them. Malaga haven’t won any of their last eight games now, although to their credit, they’ve only lost four of those games. They’ve signed some great players – Asenjo, Buonanotte, Baptista, Demichelis, Camacho etc. – and they had some good players in the team already ala Duda in midfield and Venezuelan hot prospect Rondon in attack, not to mention the ever-impressive Juanmi. However, these are all unfamiliar players so it’s no surprise at all that Malaga have conceded in seven out of their last eight games and I expect more of the same tonight.
Almeria stand a good chance of getting something from this Andaluscian derby if they play as well here as they did at Sevilla CF not too long ago. To be fair, Oltra’s side have really improved in 2011, pushing themselves away from the relegation zone, which is largely due to their manager motivating their players much better. In the first half of their campaign, Almeria were non-existant in front of goal and poor at the back. In the latter stages of this campaign, they’re still poor at the back but they’re a lot more dangerous in attack so their games tend to go over 2.5 goals more. They’ve conceded quite a few goals lately but they’ve also been missing a lot of defenders and that unfortunately continues for them today with regulars Jakobsen, Acasiete, and Juanma Ortiz all missing the trip to Malaga so it’s almost guaranteed that Almeria will concede here. However, with Piatti, Ulloa, and especially Uche in attack, this Almeria side has enough firepower to upset the hosts so I think we’ll see an intriguing game tonight.
Malaga are still missing some of their new signings, which further extends the period of turmoil at the club as there’s no way Pellegrini can know his starting eleven currently, hence Malaga conceding so frequently. Malaga have enough individuals to score in this game, especially with Almeria missing three regular starters in defence. However, they’re also unfamiliar enough to concede in this game so rather than enter the labyrinth of the 1×2 market, my call here is for both sides to score at 4/5.
Team news – Malaga miss Kris, Baptista, Rosario, Melagueno, Duda, Ruben, Asenjo, Galatto, and Portillo whereas Almeria miss Juanma Ortiz, Acasiete, Jakobsen, and Ortiz Bernal.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
CSKA Moscow
Recommended bets:
CSKA Moscow and Sparta Prague at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Huracan vs Arsenal de Sarandi (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Tigre vs Newells Old Boys (6) 1-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Montana (4) 1-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Olympiakos Nicosia vs Alki (5) over 2.5 goals
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Banik Ostrava vs Sparta Prague (6) 0-1
English Premier League:
Stoke City vs West Bromwich Albion (6) 2-1
French Ligue 2:
Le Havre vs Tours (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
Augsburg vs Erzebirge Aue (7)
Italian Serie A:
AC Milan vs SSC Napoli (6) 1-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Fortuna Sittard vs Go Ahead Eagles (5) both sides to score
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Naval de Maio vs Sporting Braga (5) 1-2
Romanian Liga:
Targu Mures vs Vaslui (7) 0-1
Astra Ploiesti vs Gloria Bistrita (6) 1-0
Russian Cup:
CSKA Moscow vs Shinnik Yaroslavl’ (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa vs Young Lions (4) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Malaga vs Almeria (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Swiss Challenge League:
Wil vs Servette (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor vs Besiktas JK (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Enjoy your free betting tips!