AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Twente Enschede
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Dutch Super Cup game between giants Ajax and their title contenders Twente. Ajax are considered to be the better of these two sides but I’m still unsure as I think Ajax can be somewhat poor at breaking sides down sometimes whereas Twente are rather efficient.
The game is being played in the Amsterdam ArenA, which naturally benefits Ajax here. They beat Twente 4-2 here last season in a very good game of football and I expect a game of similar quality here. Ajax loaned striker Cvitanich to Boca Juniors and sold De Zeeuw to Spartak Moscow but brought in South African hot prospect Severo in attack, set piece specialist and wicked playmaker Theo Janssen from today’s opponents Twente, and AZ Alkmaar attacker Sigthorsson, who was impressive last season. Happily, Ajax now have more options in attack when it comes to breaking sides down and I expect to see them score more goals this season as a result, especially with Eriksen pulling the strings and Janssen taking the set pieces.
Twente will mis Janssen but they may also counter it with new bsos Adriaanse. It’s well-known that Twente are the more efficient of the two sides in that they’ll try and defeat a slender lead rather than try to improve it but Adriaanse makes them play a more attacking brand of football, which is intriguing. It’s hard to say that Twente strengthened pre-season because they didn’t, although their only notable departure was midfielder Janssen so they’re similar quality to last year. Janko and Ruiz provide very different but nonetheless dangerous attacks up front and with ever-promising midfielders Chadli and Bajrami supporting them, Twente definitely have goals in them tonight.
All in all, I suppose I’d have to favour Ajax to win this one but there’s no value in backing them at such short odds, even if they are at home. However, over 2.5 goals looks generously priced at 4/5 given the attacking nature of both sides and the firepower they both possess so that’s my call here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my tips listed in no particular order:
Molde FK vs Valerenga Oslo – home win at 3/4.
Molde have sold star striker Diouf to FC Copenhagen, admittedly, but it would be stupid to assume that he was their only goal threat. New signings Angan and Chima are promising attackers and have done well in their respective first seasons in the Eliteserien. Molde’s strength has always been their excellent midfield which contacts Hoseth, Berg Hestad, Thioune, and Eikrem, which is the best midfield foursome in Norway for me. Defensively speaking, Solskjaer’s boys are far from the best but their firepower usually wins them games and that’s exactly why they’re top of the league right now – playing to their strengths and doing it well.
I rate Valerenga Oslo highly but they’ve lost so much firepower in the past year or two that it’s beginning to hurt them. Unlike their hosts, they are competent defensively with promising youngster Strandberg and experienced Muri being their more notable performers. They’ve got ability in midfield, too – Haestad is a feisty holding midfielder, Zajac is a dangerous attacker, Ogude can always produce the unexpected, and Dos Santos has bags of experience. In attack, though – they’re so short on ability. Abdellaoue’s departure has ruptured their attack somewhat irreperably with pacey Shelton often injured, Kone looking still as lazy as he was at CFR Cluj, and young Nielsen seeming to have to carry the attack despite it being somewhat beyond him at his tender age. All of this showed in their home game with PAOK Salonika a few days ago in the UEFA Europa League, losing 0-2 against a side that they’re more than capable of matching – they just didn’t threaten the opposing goal enough. I expect Valerenga to rest players here ahead of the return trip to Greece next week too.
Therefore, the home win at 3/4 appeals to me here. It could take time for Molde to break through Valerenga’s defence but Valerenga will be at least a little tired and only one of these sides has consistent firepower and that’s Molde. I’ve refrained from the -1 Asian Handicap because I’m waiting to see how consistent Molde are without Diouf but the home win at 3/4 is very appealing given the strength Molde have in their team.
Verdict: Molde FK to win at 3/4.
Targu Mures vs CFR Cluj – away win at 11/10.
Targu Mures signed some good players pre-season and I expect them to be a threat later in the Liga campaign. They’re already well-organised and are generally well-motivated too, which is a great foundation for any team. However, they signed a lot of new players pre-season because they lost a lot of players – virtually half of their starting eleven from last season has moved on and that’s done a lot of damage to them, especially in defence, where they were strongest last year. It showed against Dinamo Bucharest in the opening game, too, with Dinamo carving them open whenever they decided to do so, which fortunately wasn’t often as Dinamo were clearly taking it easy ahead of their European tie with Varteks Varazdin. Targu Mures have even brought in Sporting Clube de Lisboa midfielder Celsinho on loan, who could light up the division if he tries to. His problem has been not trying though – it’s been that way ever since he moved to Europe from Portuguesa all those years ago so we’ll have to wait and see. However, Targu Mures lack cohesion, for a change, and that really doesn’t suit them at all so I don’t rate their chacnes here.
Visitors CFR Cluj have been impressive pre-season with boss Costa whipping them into shape. New striker Ronny is expected to do well in the Liga and could inspire Cluj to glory this season with many of their rivals floundering. Cluj dominate games easily – that’s their strength. They’ve not scored freely since Kone’s form went downhill a couple of years ago and all the trouble with Peralta etc. kicked in. However, perhaps we could see the start of something new from them today – I don’t think they’ll lose this game, based on what they’ve shown pre-season, and they do have the quality in their team to do well here. They only miss striker Bud for this game so I think they can edge this one today.
For me, the away win at 11/10 is worth taking today. Targu Mures aren’t keeping clean sheets against anyone for the present time, in my view, and Cluj can capitalise on that here.
Team news – CFR Cluj miss Bud.
Verdict: CFR Cluj to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Palmeiras, Universidad Catolica, Universidad de Chile, Trans Narva, Flora Tallinn, Yokohama F.Marinos, Cruz Azul, Monterrey, Dacia Chisinau, Bogdanka Leczna, Flota Swinoujscie.
Recommended bets:
CFR Cluj, Yokohama F.Marinos, and Palmeiras at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Kapfenberg vs Sturm Graz (5) 1-0
Admira Wacker vs Wiener Neustadt (6) 1-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Torpedo Zhodino vs Dnepr Mogilev (6) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Mons vs Standard de Liege (5) 1-1
Racing Genk vs Germinal Beerschot (6) 2-1
AA Gent vs Cercle Brugge (7) 2-1
Lokeren vs Zulte-Waregem (6) 1-0
Kortrijk vs Lierse SK (4) 1-1
Mechelen vs Sint-Truiden (6) 1-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Flamengo vs Gremio (7) 2-0
Cruzeiro vs Botafogo (7) 2-1
Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro (8) 2-0
Bulgarian Super Cup:
Litex Lovech vs CSKA Sofia (6) 1-2
Chilean Primera Division:
Palestino vs Audax Italiano (6) 1-1
Universidad Catolica vs Deportes Iquique (8) 2-0
Universidad de Chile vs La Serena (8) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Rijeka vs Lucko (7) 1-0
Istra 1961 vs Osijek (6) 0-0
Dinamo Zagreb vs Cibalia Vinkovci (7) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Banik Ostrava vs Teplice (6) 2-1
Viktoria Plzen vs Slovan Liberec (4) 1-1
Slovacko vs Marila Pribram (6) 1-0
Danish Superligaen:
AGF Aarhus vs OB Odense (4) 1-1
FC Copenhagen vs FC Nordsjaelland (7) 2-1
Estonian Meistriliiga
Viljandi vs Kuressaare (6) 1-1
Nomme Kalju vs Sillamae Kalev (7) 2-0
Trans Narva vs Flora Paide (8) 2-0
Flora Tallinn vs Ajax Lasnamae (9) -1.5 handicap
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Levadia Tallinn (4) 1-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Haka Valkeakoski vs MyPa Anjalankoski (6) 1-1
HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn (7) 2-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Budapest Honved vs Vasas Budapest (6) 1-0
Pecsi MFC vs Zalaegerszegi TE (5) 2-1
Siofok vs Ujpest (6) 1-1
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Fehervar (5) 0-1
Japanese J-League:
Montedio Yamagata vs Albirex Niigata (5) 0-0
Kawasaki Frontale vs Urawa Red Diamonds (7) 1-0
Yokohama F.Marinos vs Omiya Ardija (8) 2-1
Jubilo Iwata vs Gamba Osaka (4) 1-2
Vissel Kobe vs Ventforet Kofu (6) 1-0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse (6) 1-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Mazeikiai vs Klaipeda (6) 1-0
Ekranas Panevezys vs Siauliai (6) 1-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Queretaro vs Tigres UANL (5) 1-1
Cruz Azul vs Atlas (8) 2-0
Monterrey vs Tijuana (8) 2-0
Santos Laguna vs Atlante (7 2-0
San Luis vs Estudiantes Tecos (6) 2-1
Moldovan Divizia Nationala:
Costuleni vs Academia UTM (5) 2-1
Nistru Otaci vs Milsami Orhei (6) 0-1
Rapid Chisinau vs Dacia Chisinau (8) 0-1
Zimbru Chisinau vs Olimpia Balti (7) 2-0
Dutch Super Cup:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Twente Enschede (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Molde FK vs Valerenga Oslo (7) 2-0
Sogndal vs Rosenborg BK (6) 1-1
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion (5) 0-0
Guarani Asuncion vs Olimpia Asuncion (6) 2-1
Peruvian Primera Division:
Melgar FBC vs Sporting Cristal (5) 1-0
Leon de Huanuco vs Inti Gas (6) 2-1
Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico (5) 1-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce (5) 1-1
Ruch Chorzow vs GKS Belchatow (5) 1-0
Widzew Lodz vs Wisla Krakow (4) 1-0
Polish Liga 1:
Bogdanka Leczna vs Olimpia Grudziedz (8)
Ruch Radzionkow vs Kolejarz Stroze (6)
Flota Swinoujscie vs Dolcan Zabki (8)
Romanian Liga:
Targu Mures vs CFR Cluj (6) 1-2
Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid Bucharest (6) 0-1
Vaslui vs Petrolul Ploiesti (5) 2-1
Russian Premier League:
Tom’ Tomsk vs Terek Grozny (5) 1-0
Rubin Kazan’ vs Anzhi Makhachkala (5) 1-1
Spartak Moscow vs Kuban’ Krasnodar (7) 2-1
Scottish Premier League:
St.Johnstone vs Rangers (7) 0-1
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Hibernian (6) 1-1
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell (6) 1-0
St.Mirren vs Aberdeen (5) 0-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Kosice (7) 2-1
MSK Zilina vs Slovan Bratislava (3) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Zlate Moravce vs DAC Dunajska Streda (6) 1-0
Ruzomberok vs Nitra (7) 2-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Maribor vs Rudar Velenje (6) 2-1
Celje vs Koper (5) 1-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Malmo FF vs Djurgarden (4) 1-1
IFK Norrkoping vs Trelleborg (5) 1-1
Swedish Superettan:
Vasteras vs Jonkopings Sodra (5)
Brommapojkarna vs Angelholm (7)
Assyriska Sodertalje vs GIF Sundsvall (6)
Osters vs Degerfors (4)
Brage vs Falkenberg (5)
Swiss Super League:
Grasshoppers Zurich vs Basel (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Lausanne Sports vs FC Zurich (6) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais (6)
Biel-Bienne vs Wohlen (7)
Delemont vs St.Gallen (4)
Etoile Carouge vs Bellinzona (5)
Locarno vs Lugano (6) at least one red card in this game
Ukrainian Premier League:
Oleksandria vs Tavriya Simferopol (6) 1-1
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Illichivets Mariupol (6) 2-1
Metalurg Donetsk vs Dynamo Kiev (7) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!