AGF Aarhus vs Skive

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Today’s secondary featured game is the Division 1 game between giants AGF Aarhus and flambuoyant Skive. These two sides both love to attack and score goals so I can see plenty of goals in this one.

AGF Aarhus are simply the best side in the division, to be blunt. They’re got some fantastic and experienced players that should still be playing Superligaen football ala Jorgensen, Berg, and Graulund. They’ve got promising youngsters in Devdariani, and Kapidzic and ultimately, they play very well as a unit. AGF have played eight games since returning from the winter break, winning seven times and drawing once along the way so their momentum is strong at the moment. Their instructions today are quite simple; win, and they’re promoted. Realistically, they’re already promoted anyway but they need to win today to have it backed up mathematically. AGF have already won twelve out of twelve at home this season whilst averaging scoring three goals per home games and averaging conceding less than a goal per home game so you can see the foundation for this bet. Additionally, AGF Aarhus welcome back Howard and Sloth today although they have lost midfielder Povlsen to injury. Nonetheless, the hosts have a lot of depth and given that they’ve beaten the handicap in eight out of their twelve home games this season, I have to fancy them to do it again today.

Visitors Skive are a side I have a lot of respect for, however. This Skive team fears nobody, relentlessly attacking at all times of every game. Their tactics would be more recognisable in South America rather than Scandinavia but they’re a good side nonetheless. Skive themselves are on a fantastic run of five consecutive wins, a run which has seen them overcome bitter rivals Viborg and big AB Copenhagen along the way, not to mention difficult wins at Fredericia and Roskilde. Skie are a very dangerous team when they’re in-form, moreso than the average team as they score a lot of goals, so they need to be taken seriously. However, the underlying problem with Skive is that they concede too many goals. Despite being fifth in the table, only three sides in the division have conceded more goals than they have and that’s a big problem ahead of a trip to the undisputed best side in the division. They’re also missing defenders Hansen and Olsen for this trip, which doesn’t make things easy for the visitors whatsoever, so I think we’ll see Skive’s run come to a crashing halt today.

For me, there’s value in taking a home win with -1.5 handicap here. Skive are missing some defenders, they’re not good defensively as it is, and they’re playing the best side in the division. Skive were crushed during their last away game against a side anywhere near as good as AGF Aarhus – HB Koge – and Skive lost 0-2 against AGF Aarhus earlier this season. Therefore, the handicap appeals to me today.

Team news – AGF Aarhus miss Povlsen whereas Skive miss Hansen, Matias Olsen, and Madsen

Verdict: AGF Aarhus to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.

Sunday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Arsenal vs Manchester United – away win with draw no bet at evens.

What can I add to this game that you don’t know already? Arsenal are traditional bottlers at this stage of the season and they’ve proven that with one win in their last six games. They’ve shipped six goals in their last three games and have scored two goals over their last four home games. They simply aren’t scoring enough goals at the moment and they’re conceding silly goals, which is never a good combination. United, on the other hand, are easing into their groove and should be in 100% condition today following an easy win at Schalke 04 mid-week in which they barely had to get out of first gear. United were in control when they beat Arsenal 2-0 at home in the FA Cup earlier this season despite fielding a bizarre side to say the least and to me, what it demonstrates is that Fergie has the measure of Arsenal. United have won six out of their last seven games against Arsenal with the only exception being a 0-0 draw at home which was all United needed at that time to win the league. United have won 1-3 at Arsenal for two years running and have deserved it both times and although a similar scoreline would surprise me today, I do think an away win is likely here, although draw no bet cover is always advisable in big games like this.

Team news – Arsenal miss Diaby, Fabianski, Mannone, and Vermaelen whilst having doubts over Rosicky whereas Manchester United miss Scholes, Fletcher, and Hargreaves.

Verdict: Manchester United to win with draw no bet at evens.

Almeria vs Sevilla CF – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Almeria aren’t going to stay up – we all know that. It’s not mathematically proven yet, however, and by the looks of things, Almeria aren’t giving up without a fight. I don’t know if it’s to impress new boss Olabe or whether they actually believe they can stay up but after falling behind at Real Zaragoza last match, they absolutely nailed the northern Spain outfit, having attempts cleared off the line, hit the woodwork, and sitters missed. Almeria deserved something from the game, in my view, and it’s that kind of energy and enthusiasm that I admire in them. They’re a lot better at home than they are away too, which helps, although it is worth noting that they did win 1-3 at Sevilla CF earlier this season. Almeria have gone over 2.5 goals in five out of their last seven home games with the only two sides to go under 2.5 goals here were defensive northern sides that came for the draw – everyone else has gone well over 2.5 goals as Almeria concede stupid goals but pose a dangerous threat in attack with Piatti, Uche, and Ulloa a constant threat. Almeria’s defensive woes won’t improve today, however, with defenders Juanma, Silva, and Luna all absent so I see a long road ahead for Almeria today. Sevilla CF miss Zokora for this game, which won’t aid their efforts to nullify Almeria’s attacking 4-3-3 formation. However, they have their own threats with wide men Capel and Navas ready to stretch the game at any opportunity which will hurt Almeria. Sevilla miss Kanoute for this game but the club’s leading goalscorer Negredo has been passed fit and Croatian attacker Rakitic is here too so there’s definitely goals in this Sevilla side. They’re looking to get revenge for their embarrassing defeat against Almeria earlier this season so I think we’ll see a particularly fiery Andaluscian derby here.

Given that Sevilla have only kept once clean sheet away from home this season and that Almeria haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their home games thsi season, I think it’s reasonable to expect goals here. We have a revenge motive for Sevilla and both sides need the points with Sevilla looking for European football and the hosts looking to keep their slim hopes of survival alive. Therefore, over 2.5 goals at 4/5 appeals to me here.

Team news – Almeria miss Juanma Ortiz, Luna, Marcelo Silva, and Feghouli whereas Sevilla CF miss Kanoute, Zokora, and Sergio Sanchez.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Sion vs Basel – away win at 21/20.

Sion are an arising team in the Swiss Super League and they’d be a lot bigger now had they not been penalised by UEFA a few years ago for their suspicious transfer activities. They’ve played well at home this season too, which is why I won’t oppose them often. However, in their last two home games, it’s been made very clear that they’ve still got a gap to breach before they reach the upper echelons of the Super League as they’ve lost back-to-back home games against division giants Young Boys Bern and FC Zurich respectively. Sion still aren’t easy to play against but the bigger sides know how to beat them and that’s what I’m banking on here. With such a tight title race in hand, Basel have to win this game. They can’t afford to slip up, given their dubious form of late and the machinelike wins of FC Zurich, who are just a point behind them at the moment. Basel have already won eight out of fifteen Super League away games this season whilst averaging scoring over two goals per away game so they’re in good stead for this encounter. They miss number one goalkeeper Costanzo but the focal point of their game will be in attack today so I’m not too concerned with the Argentinian’s absence. Basel may have only won twice in their last four away games but they’ve scored eleven goals along the way. Can Sion really match them goal for goal? I don’t see it today, not with Swiss legend Frei in great form.

Basel have won at Sion for three out of their last four visits and given the importance of this game and the firepower that they possess, the away win at 21/20 appeals to me today.

Team news – Basel miss Costanzo.

Verdict: Basel to win at 21/20.

Accumulator fodder:

Levski Sofia, Atletico Nacional de Medellin, AGF Aarhus, Manchester City, AC Milan, Ekranas Panevezys, PSV Eindhoven, Twente Enschede, AZ Alkmaar, Celtic, Red Star Belgrade.

Recommended bets:

AGF Aarhus -1.5, Twente Enshcede, and Manchester City at over 2/1.

Basel, Levski Sofia, and PSV Eindhoven at 2/1.

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Austrian Bundesliga:

Rapid Vienna vs Salzburg (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Anderlecht vs Club Brugge (6) 2-1
Lokeren vs Racing Genk (5) 1-2

Bulgarian A PFG:

Rakovski vs Slavia Sofia (7) 0-1
Levski Sofia vs Sliven (8) 2-0

Colombian Primera A:

Deportes Quindio vs Itagui Ditaires (7) 2-1
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Real Cartagena (8) 2-0
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Independiente Medellin (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Atletico Huila vs Cucuta Deportivo (5) 1-1

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Sigma Olomouc vs Slovacko (6) 2-1
Slavia Prague vs Usti nad Labem (6) 2-1

Danish Superligaen:

Silkeborg vs Randers (5) 1-0
Lyngby vs Nordsjaelland (5) 2-2
FC Copenhagen vs SonderjyskE (7) 2-1
Brondby vs AC Horsens (6) 2-1

Danish 1st Division:

AGF Aarhus vs Skive (8) over 2.5 goals
Hvidovre vs Hjorring (6)
Vejle vs Roskilde (7)
Naestved vs Fredericia (5) over 2.5 goals

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Deportivo Quito vs Independiente (7) 2-0
Deportivo Cuenca vs Imbabura (7) 2-1
LDU Loja vs Olmedo Riobamba (6) 1-0
El Nacional Quito vs Manta (7) 1-0
Espoli Cayambe vs Barcelona Guayaquil (5) 0-0
Emelec Guayaquil vs Liga de Quito (5) 1-1

English Premier League:

Birmingham City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Liverpool vs Newcastle United (7) 2-0
Arsenal vs Manchester United (6) 0-1
Manchester City vs West Ham United (8) -1.5 handicap

French Ligue 1:

Olympique de Marseille vs Auxerre (7) 1-0
Montpellier HSC vs Stade Brestois (6) 1-0
OGC Nice vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (6) 0-0
Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais (5) 1-1
Saint-Etienne vs AS Monaco (6) 0-0

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Ferencvaros vs Debreceni VSC (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game

Icelandic Urvalsdeild:

Breidablik Kopavogur vs KR Reykjavik (6) 1-2

Italian Serie A:

AC Milan vs Bologna (8) 2-0
Sampdoria vs Brescia
Catania vs Cagliari (7) 2-0
Chievo Verona vs Lecce (6) 1-1
Parma vs Palermo (6) 1-0
Fiorentina vs Udinese (5) 1-1
Bari vs AS Roma (5) 1-2

Italian Serie B:

Novara vs Siena (5)

Lithuanian A Lyga:

FBK Kaunas vs Klaipeda (5) 1-1
Atlantas vs Mazeikiai (5) 0-1
Dainava vs Kruoja Pakruojis (6) 1-2
Ekranas Panevezys vs Banga Gargzdai (8) 2-0

Mexican Primera Division:

Puebla vs Morelia (4) 1-1
Pumas UNAM vs America (6) 2-1

Dutch Eredivisie:

Excelsior Rotterdam vs FC Utrecht (4) 2-2
Twente Enschede vs Willem II (8) -1.5 handicap
Heerenveen vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (5) 1-1
VVV Venlo vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (7) over 2.5 goals
NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo (6) 2-1
PSV Eindhoven vs Vitesse Arnhem (8) over 2.5 goals
AZ Alkmaar vs De Graafschap (8) 2-0
ADO Den Haag vs Groningen (6) 2-1
NEC Nijmegen vs Roda JC Kerkrade (6) 2-1

Paraguayan Division Profesional:

3 de Febrero vs Guarani Asuncion (5) 1-0
Independiente FBC vs Sportivo Luqueno (6) 1-1
General Caballero vs Sol de America (5) 1-1
Olimpia Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Libertad Asuncion vs Tacuary (6) 1-0

Peruvian Primera Division:

Union Comercio vs Sport Huancayo (6) 0-0
Sporting Cristal vs Universitario Lima (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Cienciano vs Universidad Cesar Vallejo (5) 2-1
Alianza Atletico vs Juan Aurich (6) 1-1

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Ruch Chorzow vs Cracovia Krakow (6) 1-0
Arka Gdynia vs Lechia Gdansk (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game

Polish Liga 1:

Kolearz Stroze vs Katowice (5)

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Beira-Mar vs Rio Ave (6) 1-1
Naval de Maio vs CD Nacional de Madeira (6) 0-0
Sporting Braga vs Uniao de Leiria (6) 1-0
Maritimo Funchal vs Academica de Coimbra (7) 1-0
Olhanense vs SL Benfica (4) 1-1
Vitoria Setubal vs Porto (7) 1-2

Romanian Liga:

Universitatea Craiova vs Unirea Urziceni (7) 1-0
Astra Ploiesti vs Universitatea Cluj (6) 1-1
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Rapid Bucharest (5) 2-1
Steaua Bucharest vs Gloria Bistrita (7) 1-0

Russian Premier League:

Amkar Perm’ vs Tom’ Tomsk (6) 1-0
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Rostov-na-Donu (6) 1-1
FK Krasnodar vs Zenit St.Petersburg (7) 0-2
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Rubin Kazan’ (5) 0-1

Scottish Premier League:

Celtic vs Dundee United (8) over 2.5 goals

Serbian Super Liga:

Red Star Belgrade vs Hajduk Kula (8) 2-0

Spanish Primera Liga:

Almeria vs Sevilla CF (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Levante vs Sporting Gijon (6) 1-0
Malaga vs Hercules Alicante (6) 1-0
Racing Santander vs Real Mallorca (7) 2-0
Villarreal CF vs Getafe (6) 2-1
Osasuna vs Valencia CF (5) 1-1

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Girona vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (5)
Granada vs Tenerife (6)

Swedish Allsvenskan:

Trelleborg vs Djurgarden (6) 2-1
Helsingborg vs BK Hacken Goteborg (7) 1-0
Kalmar vs Syrianska Sodertalje (6) 1-0

Swedish Superettan:

Falkenberg vs Vasteras (6)
Varnamo vs Brommapojkarna (6)

Swiss Super League:

Bellinzona vs FC Zurich (7) 1-2
Neuchatel Xamax vs St.Gallen (6) 1-0
Sion vs Basel (7) 1-2

Swiss Challenge League:

Biel-Bienne vs Servette (5)
Delemont vs Lausanne Sports (7) over 2.5 goals

Turkish Super Lig:

Manisaspor vs Eskisehirspor (6) 1-1
Fenerbahce vs Istanbul BB (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Trabzonspor vs Gaziantepspor (7) 2-0
Kayserispor vs Bursaspor (5) 0-1

Ukrainian Premier League:

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Sevastopol (6) 0-1
Vorskla vs Zorya Lugansk (7) 1-0
Dynamo Kiev vs Shakhtar Donetsk (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game

Venezuelan Primera Division:

Estudiantes de Merida vs Atletico El Vigia (5) 1-1
Yaracuyanos vs Zulia (7) 1-0
Caroni vs Deportivo Lara (5) 1-1
Monagas SC vs Zamora (6) 1-1
Atletico Venezuela vs Mineros de Guayana (4) 1-2
Carabobo vs Deportivo Petare (6) 0-0
Trujillanos vs Real Esppor Club (7) 2-1
Deportivo Tachira vs Aragua (7) 2-0
Caracas vs Deportivo Anzoategui (7) 1-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!