Al Wahda vs Hekari United
FreeToday’s featured game is the opening game of the FIFA World Club Championship between the host nation’s Al Wahda and Papua New Guinea’s newcomers Hekari United. I think it’s a fair observation that neither side will participate for great lengths during this tournament but this game decides which side progresses to the next round so it should be an interesting affair.
I’m not an avid follower of Middle Eastern football yet although you’d have to live under a rock to not notice the growing levels of ability out there, which is largely due to heavy investment. You’ll often see a lot of South American players playing in the Middle East nowadays, some of which are ending their careers in an “easier” fashion for a hefty wage and some of which go there to earn a hefty wage and establish themselves ala Mauro Zarate. These players not only bring additional ability to the respective clubs but also generate more interest in the games, aid local players’ developments, and also increase the quality of the league in general.
Al Wahda themselves have four players that are not from the United Arab Emirates. They have Brazilian midfielders Magrao and Hugo, Brazilian striker Fernando Baiano, and Ivorian striker Modibo Diarra. I don’t know much about Diarra but I’d say that he’s likely to be a quick and strong striker, just like the vast majority of African strikers. The Brazilians, however, I am familiar with. Magrao was one of Internacional’s boys and is a very experienced and able holding midfielder. He’ll no doubt work harder than most to get through with the prospect of facing his beloved Internacional in the latter stages. Hugo was one of Atletico Paranaense’s youngsters although I remember him best at Sao Paulo – a decent playmaker who would stand out above most in this particular division. Fernando Baiano is the most surprising one for me, however. This guy is a very good goalscorer and it surprises me that he left European football so early. You won’t find many Brazilians better in the air than the 6 ft 1 striker and he’s a damn good finisher too. He’s scored goals everywhere he’s been at and he is far, far too good for this division currently so I think we’ll play a big part in what should be a fairly comfortable win here for Al Wahda. They’re one of the better sides in their division with a tight defence and incisive attack, the latter of which is no doubt due to Baiano and Hugo! Al Wahda also pride themselves on having some talented local players too, such as Mohamed Al Shehhi, Hamdan Al Karnali, and Saeed Al Kathiri, for example, so the hosts aren’t entirely reliant on their overseas contingent although I’d be obviously lying if I said that the foreigners in question weren’t important at all! Overall, the hosts look a very well-organised unit with some good players so I expect a lot from them today with lots of local support urging them on. It’s also worth noting that their manager is Hickersperger, who used to be in charge of Austria. His sides tend to play some good attacking football so I expect more of the same today.
Visitors Hekari United are the first side that I’ve ever included in a preview that I know nothing about. I’m a sad individual when it comes to football in that I can tell you things about most sides in the world but I know nothing about this club and there’s a good reason for that; it’s because they’re nobodies! I’m good geographically so I can tell you where Papua New Guinea is and even the capital city (I’m losing mega points on the “scale of cool” now!) because I’m odd like that but I unfortunately don’t follow football at such a pointless level. The only reason Hekari United are in this competition are because Australia decided to become part of Asia’s footballing world rather than remaining in Oceania for a multitude of reasons, all of which make sense. Hekari United have had to beat sides from New Zealand, the Solomon Islands, and New Zealand to get here – it’s not a difficult list, to be honest. Like most of the people from this region of the world, I expect an athletic team that works hard but on the quality front, this side should be totally outclassed and outplayed by a far better side. I think it’s especially worth noting that Hekari United haven’t played a competitive game for nearly a month now, which makes their team of unknowns out of match practice too. I’ve seen that Bwin have priced Hekari United at 4999/1 to win this competition and with all of the above in mind, that’s no surprise at all.
I’d honestly take a bigger handicap here if I could find odds on it because everything points to an Al Wahda win. Sides from the Middle East need to be taken seriously nowadays from a quality perspective and they also want to be recognised internationally so what better competition for them to achieve it than this? They’re on home soil (although it should be noted that they’re not playing at their own ground), there’s a lot of support for them, and they boast a much better side than their opponents. Their opponents haven’t ever faced anyone from outside of the Oceanic countries; I just don’t see how they’ll get anything here. I’m expecting a cricket score here, to be blunt, but I’ll take -1.5 line instead as 1/2 is far too generous and because players can be nervous at the start of tournaments.
Verdict: Al Wahda to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 1/2.
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Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
CFR Cluj vs AS Roma – both sides to score at 4/5.
CFR Cluj aren’t having a very good season. Indeed, only their talented individuals are bailing them out from game to game with a string of unconvincing displays, which I personally attribute to an unstable defence, something you wouldn’t have associated with CFR Cluj over the past couple of seasons. Nonetheless, the host side do like the big stage and they’ll always turn up for games like this. The usual absence of Sixto Peralta from midfield will still harm the hosts but Culio and Bastos should provide enough for them in midfield for this game, in my opinion. They’ve got a very good prospect in Traore in attack, although he’s a tad naive at times, and experiened ex-SSC Napoli striker De Zerbi has been finding the net a few times of late so CFR Cluj do have the necessary quality to at least score a goal here, especially with Ivorian Emmanuel Kone surging forwards from midfield. All in all, if CFR Cluj turn up as they did in Rome then they’re in a prime position to cause a lot of problems for AS Roma, just as they did back in September.
It’s worth noting that this game is irrelevant for CFR Cluj here but it isn’t for visitors AS Roma. It’s unlikely that Basel will win at Bayern Munich but if they do – and I’d remind you all here that Bayern Munich have nothing to play for – then AS Roma are in shit street unless they get a minimum of a draw here. That’s why Ranieri has named virtually a full-strength squad to travel to Romania and I think they’ll try and do a professional job here. The problem with that is that AS Roma have always been rather susceptible in defence and if they sit back then they tend to concede. It’s no coincidence all that they average conceding two goals per game in the UEFA Champions League this season and nor is it that they’ve conceded in every UEFA Champions League game this season. I like AS Roma an awful lot, as it happens – I rate their midfield immensely and always have done – but they’re so vulnerable in defence that it’s unreal so I think we’ll see them concede here today. The return of Totti to action on a fairly more regular basis has improved AS Roma’s displays and morale and he’s made the trip to Romania so should really feature in this game. If he does, then I don’t see AS Roma not scoring a goal here – there’s an awful lot of ability in this Roman side. However, I would also point out what I always say here and that is the fact that Italian football is generally very predictable and easy to counter nowadays due to the swift advances of the European game in lots of countries around Europe. Italian football no longer commands the respect of their opponets on a grandiose scale because if you close them down then they become a lot easier to play against. Take nothing away from some of the fabulous players that AS Roma possess here but their general tactical style should see them concede here, as ever.
CFR Cluj and AS Roma have met three times in the UEFA Champions League over the past two years and each time it’s been a fascinating game for varying reasons. However, both sides have scored in each game and in all honesty, I’d say CFR Cluj haven’t deserved to lose any of those games. I’ll therefore give the hosts a shot tonight as they should be able to at least score a goal against their Italian opponents whereas AS Roma need the points and do have the quality to win this game so both sides to score is my call for this one.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
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Olympique de Marseille vs Chelsea – both sides to score at 4/5.
I’m sorely tempted to back Chelsea in this game because they’re far too long at nearly 2/1. However, the bookies have clearly done this due to Chelsea’s poor displays of late and also Ancelotti’s keen approach on fielding youngsters lately so I’ll resist temptation here despite Chelsea being the better side!
Taking both sides to score here appeals to me en mass though. Marseille are an attacking side and although they struggled to break down a resilient OGC Nice at weekend, they shouldn’t meet with the same resistance here. Although the game is irrelevant for both clubs, I don’t think Chelsea can afford to sit back and “be boring” here in light of some poor displays lately; they need to get back on the winning trail rapidly with games against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United looming large so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ancelotti take this very seriously indeed. Marseille don’t have a better side than Chelsea; far from it. However, they’re more purposeful in attack than Chelsea are at the moment and Chelsea’s defending of late has been appalling due to defensive absences and I think that will still show tonight, despite the return of leader John Terry, who has yet to regain full match fitness in my opinion. I can’t question the ability of Chelsea in attack though, not whilst Drogba and Anelka are up there, both with their own reasons for wanting to score in this game – Drogba as an ex-Marseille player and Anelka is ex-Paris Saint-Germain, who obviously hate Marseille – and I do think Ancelotti will field both at some stage in this game. That said, rumours are rife that Anelka will not play in this game but I can only work with facts so I’ll assume he’ll feature at somepoint until having it confirmed otherwise. Marseille are always a strong side at the Stade Velodrome and there’s usually a good atmosphere too. I therefore think that Marseille won’t sit back here – they should go out and attack a vulnerable Chelsea side, especially as they can’t defend themselves!
Therefore, my call is for both sides to score here. Chelsea have left Zhirkov and Lampard behind, along with long-term absentees Benayoun and Alex. They’ve brought some youngsters along, which aids my bet in varying ways, but most of the big names are available here so we should see at least half a team of good Chelsea players in accordance with UEFA’s ruling about “A” class and “B” class players being fielded in each game. It’ll be interesting to see if Essien plays too – as a former Olympique Lyonnais player himself, he’ll not exactly be on good terms with their rivals Olympique de Marseille! All in all, I expect a fairly heated game here but I think we’ll see both sides score at decent odds.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
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MSK Zilina vs Spartak Moscow – both sides to score at 4/5.
I can’t deny that Spartak Moscow are the better of these two sides but with the Russian giants having not played a competitive game for two weeks now, I have to doubt their credentials at least partially here. This game doesn’t mean anything for either side so I expect a fairly laid-back game here. However, that said, this is MSK Zilina’s last home game in the UEFA Champions League group stage, which is a stage they possibly won’t achive ever again, so I expect a lot of support from the hosts and at least a committed display here. Fortuitously for Spartak Moscow, if Zilina do attack, then it leaves space for their dangerous Brazilians Alex, Welliton, and Ari to do damage so I’m confident Spartak will score here, especially with Zilina at the shallow end of the talent pool. However, Spartak hate playing against determined sides – it doesn’t suit their manipulation of the ball whatsoever – so I think they’ll concede here too, especially after two weeks without a competitive games as they should be a tad rusty here. Spartak have conceded for three consecutive UEFA Champions League games and although they’re facing the weakest side in the group tonight, I think they’ll concede again, especially if the impressive Matjan/Oravec attack works as well on the continent as it does in the Corgon Liga. So yeah – we should see an open game here and I’d be more tempted to take Spartak to win this game at 6/5 if they had played within the last two weeks and if they had a reason to win the game, neither of which are applicable, so I’ll keep my call for this game to both sides scoring.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
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AC Milan vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam – home win at 10/11.
I’m not a massive advocate of AC Milan because like I mentioned in the CFR Cluj vs AS Roma preview above, I think Italian football is quite simple to play against nowadays. However, I’m all over AC Milan for this game tonight despite them not even needing to win the game. Why? Well, they’re facing an Ajax side that already cannot defend so the likes of Ibrahimovic, Robinho, Ronaldino, and Pato should have a field day here. Aside from that, however, Ajax have to win this game and in typical Dutch fashion, they’re prepared for this do-or-die game really well…by firing coach Martin Jol. Seriously, how stupid can you be? He’s a brilliant manager who is doing the best with limited resources and because they’ve not won the treble with him there, they’ve decided to fire him! What the hell is that about? Ridiculous move, especially ahead of a daunting trip to the San Siro. With Jol in charge, I’d have probably given this game a miss because I really rate him as a manager. Without him, however, I’m all over AC Milan, even though Ajax should have Suarez available to them as his ban is only for domestic games. AC Milan should be a bit shorter here, in my opinion, especially with Ajax’s attack depending an awful lot on Suarez alone, so my call is the generously-priced home win for this game, irrespective of the side that AC Milan field.
Verdict: AC Milan to win at 10/11.
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Real Madrid vs Auxerre – home win to nil at 6/5.
This game was very nearly the game of the day because it’s got “value” stamped all over it, in my opinion. Auxerre are not an easy side to beat; they’ve demonstrated that fact innumerate times this season on varying stages. However, they are a long, long way from a goalscoring side! It’s no coincidence that they’ve only scored in two out of their five UEFA Champions League games thus far and those three goals have all been against defensively-inept AFC Ajax Amsterdam over two games. When they’ve encountered AC Milan and Real Madrid respectively, they’ve been outclassed, outplayed, and struggled to do anything with the ball, hence not scoring a goal. Auxerre can quality for the UEFA Europa League if they win at the Santiago Bernabeu tonight but how are they going to do that with only Slovenian international Valter Birsa their only consistent goal threat? This is a whole new level for Auxerre and I think they’ve been caught drastically short, which is unfortunate but it can happen in this competition. After all, Real Madrid are very much a Mourinho side by now – they may not always entertain but they do tend to grind out wins, just as they did at home to Valencia CF at weekend, which you have to respect. Mourinho and some of his players (i.e. Ramos, Alonso) miss this game through their infamous suspension imposed upon them by UEFA (which I found hilarious, personally – only Mourinho would attempt something so funny!) but this game should still be really straightforward for Madrid. Madrid don’t need anything from this game but they’ve got a whole arsenal of ability available to them, especially from a counter-attacking perspective so they really shouldn’t have any trouble disposing of Auxerre here by a couple of goals with pace alone. Madrid have already kept four clean sheets in five UEFA Champions League games this season so how on earth they’re at 6/5 to win at home without conceding is beyond me and thus that is my call here!
Verdict: Real Madrid to win to nil at 6/5.
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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting Braga – home win at 3/5.
Shakhtar Donetsk haven’t played a competitive game for two weeks now but with that as my sole concern for this game, I have to say that I find odds of 3/5 laughably long! The Donbass Arena is not an easy place to face the possessive Shakhtar Donetsk and although the hosts don’t have any particular reason to win this game, they still take their UEFA Champions League games very seriously indeed. Their form this season has been impeccable too, scoring at will and defending as a unit. Indeed, had it not been for their 5-1 drubbing at The Emirates against Arsenal, they’d currently be at the top of the group with four wins from four games, having scored nine times and conceded just once. In fact, aside from the games against Arsenal, Shakhtar haven’t conceded a goal yet, winning 0-3 in this game when it was played in Portugal. Although the rest on that day did flatter Shakhtar, their ability in front of goal was much more ruthless and dangerous than Braga, which shows their experience and superiority here. Braga are hard-workers but they’re not a great side and in fact, they’ve looked very average lately, especially domestically. Braga lost their heads at weekend when facing Unaio de Leiria away from home, throwing away a 0-1 lead to lose 3-1 whilst having no less than three men dismissed. The stresses and prsesure of playing in two important competitions is really affecting Braga and I just don’t rate their chances here with that in mind, especially that they have to win this game to have any chance of qualification for the latter stages. Any side that attacks Shakhtar here will lose unless they’re a superior side, which Braga are not.
Therefore, 3/5 on the home win really appeals to me tonight. Shakhtar have already dealt with the resilient and well-organised ways of Partizan Belgrade and have also dealt with the flambuoyancy of Arsenal when they came here so I think they should be able to deal with a fairly average Braga side here very easily indeed. For me, 3/5 on this game is a steal – I expected much shorter odds for this game.
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to win at 3/5.
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Independiente vs Goias – both teams to score at 3/4.
This one speaks for itself, really. It’s the second leg of the Copa Sudamericana final, the first leg of which Goias won 2-0 in Brazil. The reverse leg in Argentina is do-or-die time for hosts Independiente and I, much like their bookies, don’t fancy their chances of overturning the deficit. Independiente are a decent side but they’re not great goalscorers – their strength is defence, which was lightly cast aside and pissed all over by Goias in the first leg as they scored twice in twenty minutes. Goias are not a particularly good side themselves – they can’t defend for shit but they attack well – but I’ll give them their dues here because the last thing you want to give to a good goalscoring side is a lot of room to attack as you’re attacking them, which is what Independiente must do. If Independiente are to do this tonight then they must do so without experienced striker Silvera, who is suspended for this game. His suspension means that Independiente won’t do enough in this game to win the competition, in my opinion. However, with Independiente forced into attacking a shit defensive side and a potent Goias side happily waiting for the counter-attack, taking both sides to score at 3/4 looks generous to me, especially with both sides having rested players in their respective domestic games at weekend.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 3/4.
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River Plate vs Estudiantes De La Plata – away win at 27/20.
River Plate will have successfully staved off the threat of relegation if Huracan are beaten by Velez Sarsfield tonight (which is very likely!) so there may be some celebratory moods here. However, they can’t sit back on their laurels and think “job done” – they’re still precariously low in the averages table, which means further problems next season if they don’t perform. I therefore think they’ll show up against Estudiantes, especially in front of the loyal Antontio Vespucio Liberti crowd. River Plate are very, very hard to beat here, as the statistics from this season show despite them not boasting a particularly strong squad anymore. However, River need to try and get something here but the unfortunate fact for them is that they’re simply playing a better side than they are. Estudiantes De La Plata, however, need to win this game to stay against of Velez Sarsfield, who will surely win at home to Huracan tonight. With just two games remaining, Estudiantes cannot afford any slip-ups in their bid to lift the Primera Division title. Estudiantes are a pretty good away side by Primera Division standards in the sense that there are generally few away wins in this league. Nonetheless, four wins, three draws, and just two defeats in nine away games is impressive in my books for an Argentinian club so they do need to be taken seriously here, especially with motivation and momentum burning freshly in front of them following an impressive 3-1 victory over Argentinos Juniors lately.
For me, the key here is defence. Estudiantes have the best defensive record in the division currently and that’s what put them on top spot, as well as the pure brilliance of Juan Sebastian Veron in midfield. I’m banking on Estudiantes not conceding against a fairly impotent River Plate side tonight, which is bold as it’s away from home, but does hold water as River Plate lack good strikers. Estudiantes keep the ball very well and have had the lion’s share of wins in recent head-to-head meetings with River Plate, having not lost to the giants of Argentinian football for five consecutive meetings and having won their last trip here. If River Plate somehow score then this bet is in jeopardy as it takes a lot for Estudiantes to score two away from home. However, deperate times call for desperate measures so I won’t rule out Estudiantes bagging twice here to respond to conceding a goal, hence me not calling the riskier away win to nil despite the generous price. I’ll stick with my main call being the away win here as it’s priced well and Estudiantes are simply a better side than River Plate and hopefully we’ll see River get a little complacent in this game having all but avoided relegation. It should be a good game either way!
Verdict: Estudiantes De La Plata to win at 27/20.
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Velez Sarsfield vs Huracan – home win to nil at 4/5.
Gotta fancy this one! For me, Velez are the best side in Argentina due to their unyielding quality all over their squad but also due to the unstoppable mannerisms of Uruguayan striker Silva, who is in tremendous form. It’s hard not to fancy Velez with Maxi Moralez pulling the strings and that’s worked especially well at home this season with Velez not only winning seven out of eight home games (drawing the other) but also averaging scoring over two goals per home game whilst leaking just twice in that whole run. Velez are very much the complete article at home and on the back of a convincing and useful 0-4 victory at in-form Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (who are notable for their attacking prowess this season!), it’s hard to see Velez stumbling in their must-win game tonight.
Velez have won this game at home to nil for two consecutive seasons now so you have to fancy them tonight. I’d be happier if Huracan had nothing to play for here but they do, unfortunately – they have to win or they’re relegated from the division. I can’t overlook the fact that they’re a terrible side, however, especially away from home. They’ve lost five consecutive games ahead of this one and have lost seven out of nine already on the road this season, averaging conceding over two goals per away game and scoring just over a goal per every two away games. In fact, barring their freak win at Argentinos Juniors at the start of the current campaign, Huracan haven’t scored an away goal against a good side, failing to find the net in five out of their last six away games. They’re not playing well and they’re facing the best in the division – things couldn’t be much more demoralising for Huracan currently!
Velez really should win this game so I’m all over them as accumulator fodder. However, backing them to win to nil at 4/5 really appeals to me tonight as they’re a fantastic side, especially at home, whereas Huracan are just poor at best, especially from an attacking perspective. Therefore, my call is for Velez to win without conceding at 4/5.
Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win to nil at 4/5.
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Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Racing Club Avellaneda – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Godoy were brought back down to earth last match by a rampant Velez Sarsfield in a crushing 0-4 defeat. However, they won’t care; they’ve already made history by qualifying for the Copa Libertadores so they’re still on cloud nine. What I like about Godoy, however, is that they do play with spirit and they love to attack and score goals whether they need to or not. You can look at their performance against Velez last match and say “wtf?” or you can have seen the game, saw that Godoy dominated at the start and then fell behind against Argentina’s best club, which is fatal. They were then outplayed in the second-half and the superiority of Velez told by the final whistle. I like that Godoy have a ceiling to their ability because it demonstrates how human they are despite their excellent goalscoring record. They will still attack tonight even though they have no reason to; it’s just their way of doing things, so my respect goes to them. Only two good sides – Newells Old Boys and Velez Sarsfield respectively – have prevented Godoy from scoring at home this season so don’t write off the hosts here, even if they are punching above their weight.
However, this game is very much an important one for visitors Racing Club Avellaneda. They’ve been under pressure for years as they’ve failed to qualify for major tournaments despite being one of the bigger sides in Argentina but they’ve finally got the chance to achieve it. There’s two games remaining with just one Copa Libertadores place still up for grabs and the battle is between Racing, Newells Old Boys, and Atletico Lanus. Racing are currently a point clear of Newells Old Boys and three clear of Atletico Lanus in the Copa Libertadores Qualification Table so Racing need all the points they can get. However, Racing are generally a poor away side so I can’t say that the away win appeals to me. They’re generally sound enough in defence as long as ex-Boca Juniors product Cahais is playing but their attack isn’t particularly good, unfortunately. However, to their credit, they’ve won back-to-back away games on their seven-game unbeaten run lately, beating both Newells Old Boys and Banfield in those away games respectively so they must be taken seriously here.
So, yeah – we have a good attacking side that can’t defend facing a defensive side that cannot afford to defend in this game as they need to win. The 1×2 market is a bit unpredictable here for my liking but over 2.5 goals at 11/10 intrigues me a lot here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
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Melbourne Heart vs Newcastle Jets – away win with draw no bet at evens.
Quality-wise, there’s not much between newly-promoted Melbourne Heart and experienced Newcastle Jets and both are fairly dour sides to watch play football. That’s unlikely to change today too, especially with Melbourne Heart coach John van ‘t Schip commenting “We can’t score at the moment and our confidence is not there”. They also have doubts over the fitness of Marrone and Terra, which would weaken their defence and attack considerably, although that will be confirmed before the game, no doubt. Melbourne Heart are bereft of confidence and potency either way, however, hence being the lowest-scoring home side in the whole of the A-League. They’ve not scored a goal in three out of their last four home games and haven’t actually scored in four consecutive games so times are tough for the hosts and could be set to get tougher today.
Newcastle Jets aren’t a particularly good side, unfortunately. However, they’re on a terrific burst of momentum that could make all the difference today. They’re a solid unit defensively, which is why they’ve got by far the best defensive record in the A-League with just twelve goals conceded in sixteen games. The problem that the Jets have is that when they fall behind in games, they tend to not have enough in attack to get themselves back in it and thus end up losing their games. Who can be surprised at that? This club has Michael Bridges and Francis Jeffers in attack for them so goalscoring will definitely be a problem!! However, I doubt that the hosts will fall behind in this game, which encourages me. They’re playing well with no defeats in five consecutive games, winning three times and drawing twice along the way. They won their last game 0-2 at North Queensland Fury in rather fortunate circumstances but fought hard enough to earn the luck that they got. Momentum can often create luck and if the Jets get that ever-elusive goal then I really fancy them today.
Either way – the away win at draw no bet at evens looks far too well-priced to ignore here. Neither side are entertaining so I wouldn’t be sat there until the early hours watching this game but I do think there’s value in the away win at evens with draw no bet cover as the visitors really shouldn’t lose this one in their rich vein of form.
Verdict: Newcastle Jets to win with draw no bet at evens.
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Academica de Coimbra vs Maritimo Funchal – home win to nil at 11/5.
I was sorely tempted to go for evens on home win until I read that Kleber is injured and Danilo Dias is suspended for Maritimo because that pretty much eliminates the possibility of Maritimo scoring here. I mean, statistics alone show you that the Madeira-based outfit have problems scoring goals as it is with seven scored in twelve Liga Sagres games. However, considering that Kleber alone is responsible for four of those goals, I don’t see Maritimo scoring here. It’s a shame, really – I like Maritimo a lot. They’re one of the top seven sides in Portugal, in my opinion, but if they’re not scoring goals then they’re not a threat, simply. They’re a solid defensive side and that’s their saving grace at the moment; clubs just can’t score against them. However, Academica de Coimbra play some lovely football, especially at home, which is largely why only Porto, SL Benfica, and Sporting Clube de Lisboa have scored more goals at home than Academica have this season. Academica have won three out of six whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per home game so they have to be given consideration here, especially on the back of two consecutive wins in all competitions whilst keeping two clean sheets. The only sides to win at Academica this season have been Porto and Sporting Clube de Lisboa respectively and they both struggled here so you can see how strong Academica are becoming. They’ve already beaten Vitoria Guimaraes and also CD Nacional de Madeira – Maritimo’s bitter rivals – at home this season so they can certainly beat a virtually impotent Maritimo Funchal tonight, especially with Fidalgo in such good form in attack. The home win at evens still appeals to me here but to be honest, if Academica are to win this game, then it should be without conceding so rather than sit with evens, I’ll take a risk and call a home win to nil as it’s generously priced at 11/5.
Team news – Academica miss Berger, Gomes, and Sougou for this game whereas Maritimo miss Fernando, Briguel, Kleber, Cesar and Dias for this game.
Verdict: Academica de Coimbra to win to nil at 11/5..
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Real Betis Balompie vs Barcelona II – home win with -1.5 handicap at 8/5.
This is an interesting bet on many fronts, really, because Barcelona II lost Thiago, Fontas, Jeffren, Dos Santos, Vazquez, and Batra to the first team for their game against Rubin Kazan last night, which is a lot of important players for Barcelona II, and I don’t know what condition those players will arrive back in. Indeed, some of them may not feature at all and those that do may very well be tired, depending on the action they’ve seen in the game.
I already fancied Betis before this game as they’re the only “Primera Liga” side that are still not yet there and Barcelona II are simply over-achieving with their promising band of youngsters. However, with the afore-mentioned players being used elsewhere (at least some of them!) I fancy Betis even more here. They’ve already been immense at home this season with six wins from six home games, averaging scoring three goals per home game whilst conceding just four goals along the way. Ruben Castro and Achille Emana have been playing very well indeed for Betis and it’s that calibre of player available to them that makes me favour them tonight. They’ve beaten the -1.5 goal handicap in four out of those six home games, one of which was against promotion rivals Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and the other of which was against recently-relegated Deportivo Xerez so Betis have to be seriously considered here.
Visitors Barcelona II aren’t too good on the road either, which helps. They average conceding over two goals per away game in the Segunda Liga whilst scoring just over a goal per away game – it’s not a good record to take to Betis, is it?! Barcelona II have already lost half of their away games this season and have only scored twice in their last three games, in total. In fact, their last away game involved them getting battered 4-1 by newly-promoted Granada, which isn’t really acceptable for a side with such potential. Interestingly enough, Barcelona II have lost by two goals or more in all three of their away defeats this season and with form hard to come by and players doubtful for this game, I think they’re going to struggle tonight.
The alternative is over 2.5 goals here, of course. Neither side can defend particularly well and both much prefer attacking. However, the handicap is crazily priced at 8/5, in my opinion, especially with the above in mind. Therefore, I’ll stick to my guns and call the home win with -1.5 goal handicap for this game.
Verdict: Real Betis Balompie to win with -1.5 handicap at 8/5.
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As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Accumulator fodder:
Al Wahda, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Arsenal, Shakhtar Donetsk, Velez Sarsfield, Once Caldas Manizales.
Recommended bets:
Al Wahda -1.5, Real Betis Balompie, and Real Madrid at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
FIFA World Club Championship:
Al Wahda vs Hekari United (9) -1.5 handicap
UEFA Champions League:
Bayern Munich vs Basel (8) over 2.5 goals
CFR Cluj vs AS Roma (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Olympique de Marseille vs Chelsea (6) both sides to score
MSK Zilina vs Spartak Moscow (5) both sides to score
AC Milan vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (7) 2-1
Real Madrid vs Auxerre (8) -1.5 handicap
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting Braga (8) 2-0
Arsenal vs Partizan Belgrade (9) -1.5 handicap
Copa Sudamericana:
Independiente vs Goias (5) over 2.5 goals
Argentinian Primera Division:
River Plate vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 1-2
Velez Sarsfield vs Huracan (8) -1.5 handicap
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Racing Club Avellaneda (3) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart vs Newcastle Jets (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Colombian Primera A:
La Equidad Bogota vs Independiente de Sante Fe Bogota (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Huila (7) 1-0
Once Caldas Manizales vs Deportes Quindio (8) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Cucuta Deportivo (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Italian Serie A:
Bologna vs Chievo Verona (5) 1-0
Italian Serie B:
Vicenza vs Siena (5) draw no bet
Reggina vs Albinoleffe (4)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Academica de Coimbra vs Maritimo Funchal (6) 1-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Betis Balompie vs Barcelona II (8) -1.5 handicap
Enjoy your free betting tips!