Alianza Lima vs Bolivar La Paz
FreeToday’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores game in Peru between Alianza Lima and Bolivar La Paz. A win tonight guarantees Alianza Lima a place in the next round whereas Bolivar La Paz…well, they never had any expectations, anyway.
Alianza Lima have been strong at home in the Copa Libertadores so far with a 4-1 win over reigning champions Estudiantes De La Plata and a 2-0 win over Peruvian compatriots Juan Aurich giving the hosts tonight a good chance of progression. They’ve only lost once in a feast of goals to Juan Aurich with their other game out of their four games played being an emphatic 3-1 victory in Bolivia against Bolivar La Paz. They’ve not played well domestically of late but I put that down to Alianza Lima focusing entirely on this competition as they’re not often in it. Alianza Lima have beaten the -1.75 handicap in their lofty home ground aganist two competent sides already in this competition so I strongly suspect that they’ll be able to do it against an incompetent opponent that they’ve already beaten the -1.75 handicap against this season but in the reverse fixture.
Bolivar La Paz, like most Bolivian sides, are rubbish. It’s not like me to be so harsh on sides but that’s just how it is in the Copa Libertadores – Bolivian sides are the rubbing rags. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Bolivar have only scored once in this tournament, conceded seven times, lost three times, and drawn once. They’ve been beaten by two goals or more on both of their away trips in the Copa Libertadores this season, including their previous trip to Peru to face Juan Aurich, so I expect more of the same tonight. Are Bolivar even bothered about this game? Not likely. They’re already out, pride has been washed away, and they have a game against big Jorge Wilstermann in two days time, a side they’ve not beaten at home in their last two attempts. It’s not an integral game as they’ve already qualified for the latter stages domestically but that’s a game they need their pride in, not this one.
There’s a big class difference here tonight and there’s a big motivation difference too. Alianza Lima have the opportunity to represent Peru, thus knocking out rivals Juan Aurich as well as mixing it up with the “big boys” of South America so they’ll jump at the chance, particularly financially. They’ve beaten two good sides at home by two goals or more so why they can’t do that against an atrocious opponent that’s especially bad on the road is beyond me – these odds are a gift!
Verdict: Alianza Lima to beat the -1.75 handicap at evens.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
The only other game that interests me today is below:
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Dinamo Bucharest – away win at 4/5.
Hosts Pandurii Targu Jiu have earned a reputation in Romania of being very difficult to beat, particularly at home, because of their defensive prowess. Basically, they’re happy to sit eleven men behind the ball and grind out a draw – that’s as good as a win to them. That’s why they’ve drawn seven out of thirteen home games already this season, losing just three times. They’ve only scored and conceded ten goals this season at home so that should give you some idea of their “tactics”. They’re unbeaten in their last three home games and haven’t scored or conceded in any of those three games, bizarrely. The three sides that have won here this season have needed to score two goals to do so and I expect Dinamo Bucharest to do a similar job as they’re one of the few sides capable of breaking Pandurii’s stiff resolve.
Visitors Dinamo Bucharest have scored nine times on the road in the Liga since returning from the winter break. They’ve won two of their games whilst playing out an epic 4-4 draw with reigning champions Unirea Urziceni so Dinamo are certainly potent at the moment. Aside from a fortunate Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt, Dinamo Bucharest have run riot against the lower sides in the division since returning from the winter break with only giants CFR Cluj and reigning champions Unirea Urziceni having prevented them from winning. Dinamo Bucharest have broken down the likes of Otelul Galati, Gaz Metan Medias, and Universitaea Craiova since returning from the winter break – three resilient sides – so should be able to do so today too. Dinamo may not have mastered the art of defending yet but their potency knows no bounds with an average of nearly two goals scored per away game and twelve goals scored in their last five Liga games so they look good to take three points today against an impotent Pandurii.
There’s no way on earth that Pandurii will take Dinamo on in a game of “football” – it’ll be defensive as hell, as usual, and “take a point of we can” tactics. Dinamo Bucharest have a good record here, however – they’ve won three out of their last four visits here in the Liga and certainly have the capability to do so again today. Despite Pandurii’s competence at home, the odds surprise me on Dinamo as the bookies like to overestimate them so they should be at least 4/6. Nonetheless, at 4/5, they look good value to me today.
Verdict: Dinamo Bucharest to win at 4/5.
Aside from the games mentioned, I can’t see anything else that stands out for any kind of bet so good luck if you do try your hand on any of the games today!
For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
VFL Wolfsburg vs Fulham (4) 1-1
Standard de Liege vs Hamburger SV (6) 1-2
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia CF (5) 2-2
Liverpool vs SL Benfica (6) 1-0
Copa Libertadores:
Independiente Medellin vs Cerro Porteno (6) 1-0
Alianza Lima vs Bolivar La Paz (8) -1.75 handicap
Argentinian Primera Division:
Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 2-1
Colon de Santa Fe vs Boca Juniors (6) 1-0
Rosario Central vs Argentinos Juniors (4) 0-0
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (6) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Deportivo Cali vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (5) 1-1
Romanian Liga:
Rapid Bucharest vs Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt (7) 1-0
Politehnica Iasi vs CFR Cluj (6) 0-1
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Dinamo Bucharest (7) 1-2
Singaporean S-League:
Young Lions vs Armed Forces (6) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!