America vs Santos
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter in Mexico between America and Brazilian giants Santos. The first leg somehow ended 1-0 to Santos despite the game having many glaring opportunities for both sides to score and to be blunt, I expect more of the same tonight.
First of all, America simply can’t defend, hence them not attempting to do so. They were fortunate enough to be placed in a group with a poor Argentinos Juniors side, a Fluminense side bereft of their inspirational manager, and a Club Nacional de Montevideo side overly reliant on their emerging striker. They still had to labour through that group, despite the above, so it’s no surprise that they lost in Brazil against Santos. In Sanchez, Vuoso, Reyna, and Marquez, America have a lot of good attacking threats and that shows why they tend to score goals despite the continued absence of Paraguayan hitman Cabanas. They’ve got two good playmakers behind them in Brazilian midfielder Rosinei and Argentinian midfielder Montenegro and with experienced Pardo sat in there too, America do have the basis for a very strong attack. At the back, barring Mosquera, they’re pretty vulnerable. Ochoa is a good goalkeeper and he’s had to be, to be honest – America give too many chances away and that’s the kind of thing that could cost them a place in the next round of the Copa Libertadores tonight.
Visitors Santos aren’t too keen on defending either, helpfully. Much like their hosts, Santos boast a strong attack, even stronger than their hosts, in my view. The brilliant Neymar is generally surrounded by Ze Eduardo, Ganso, Elano, and even Keirrison, which is pretty frightening, as I’m sure you’ll all agree. Elano misses this game through injury sustained in the derby with Sao Paulo lately, unfortunately, but the rest of them are fit and raring to go. There’s plenty of pace and creativity in that attack and as long as the finesse is there then we should see plenty of goals here. Santos have gone over 2.5 goals in four out of their last five Copa Libertadores games due to incisive finishing and poor defending so why not again tonight?
America have won all their home games in the tournament thus far and I think there’s a decent chance they’ll edge this one. Therefore, Santos have to score here to give themselves a good chance of progressing. With the above in mind, I think the chances of this game going over 2.5 goals are high, just as the first leg between these two sides should have. I’m surprised that the odds are as generous as they are but over 2.5 goals at evens is something I’m happy to hopefully take advantage of!
Team news – Santos miss Elano.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Arema Malang vs Cerezo Osaka – Arema Malang to win with +1.5 handicap at 5/4.
Generally speaking, Indonesian sides are the rubbing rags of the Asian Champions League group stage and I don’t think any Indonesian side is good enough to remove that title from them yet. However, the one side that stands out above the other Indonesian sides as far as arising ability is concerned is Arema Malang. The predominant reason for their newfound threat is striker Alam Shah, formerly of Tampines Rovers, who has also had trials with Latvian giants Skonto Riga. This guy knows how to find the net and he’s the one dragging Arema Malang along. Although they’re still susceptible defensively, they’re a threat in front of goal and against under-performing sides, they can cause a shock. They held China’s Shandong Luneng to a 1-1 draw here in their last Champions League home game and they only lost 2-1 at Cerezo Osaka in Japan so why not a potential surprise on the cards today?
Either way – 1/5 on Cerezo Osaka winning this game is a joke. Yes, Japanese football is far more advanced than Indonesian football, probably even the best in Asia. However, it cannot be overlooked that Cerezo Osaka are looking a shadow of their former selves due to too many attacking players having left the club in the past twelve months that simply have not been replaced. The first to depart was wonderkid Kagawa, who currently plays for Bv09 Borussia Dortmund in Germany. After that, Cerezo Osaka sold attacking midfielder Ienaga and Brazilian striker Adriano to bitter rivals Gamba Osaka, leaving them with hardly any firepower whatsoever. They’ve scored just five goals in seven games in all competitions this season and they’ve played sides that they’re more than capable of scoring against so why should that change here? Cerezo Osaka are inexperienced in this competition and away games have proved very difficult for them thus far, losing 2-0 in China against Shandong Luneng and 1-0 in South Korea against Jeonbuk Motors. Therefore, I see another difficult game for overrated Cerezo Osaka today.
All in all, the odds look rather wrong here, in my view. I’m tempted by a cheeky lay but I won’t push my luck. Instead, taking the hosts to win this game with a +1.5 goal head start at 5/4 looks very generous indeed, especially as that would gift a victory to the opposing side in any Champions League game that Cerezo Osaka have played in this season.
Verdict: Arema Malang to win with a +1.5 handicap at 5/4.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Barcelona vs Real Madrid (7) 1-0
Copa Libertadores:
America vs Santos (4) 2-2
Asian Champions League:
Kashima Antlers vs Shanghai Shenhua (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Arema Malang vs Cerezo Osaka (5) 0-1
Suwon Bluewings vs Sydney FC (7) 1-0
Shandong Luneng vs Jeonbuk Motors (5) 1-1
Bunyodkor vs Al Wahda (7) 1-0
Persepolis vs Al Ittihad (5) 2-1
Emirates vs Zob Ahan (6) 0-1
Al Shabab vs Al Rayyan (7) 2-0
Baltic League:
Siauliai vs FK Ventspils (7) 0-2
Bulgarian A PFG:
Beroe vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (6) 1-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
Hameenlinna vs Jippo Joensuu (6) under 2.5 goals
FC Lahti vs FC Espoo (7)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Breidablik Kopavogur vs KR Reykjavik (6) 0-1
Vikingur Reykjavik vs Thor (6) 2-1
Japanese J-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Vissel Kobe (5) 0-0
Ventforet Kofu vs Omiya Ardija (6) 1-0
Kawasaki Frontale vs Jubilo Iwata (7) 2-1
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Yokohama F.Marinos (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Vegalta Sendai vs Avispa Fukuoka (5) 2-1
Montedio Yamagata vs Kashiwa Reysol (6) 1-1
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (6) 1-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Celje vs Gorica (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!