Anorthosis Famagusta vs CSKA Moscow
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League Qualifier in Cyprus between Anorthosis Famagusta and CSKA Moscow. The first leg in Russia ended 4-0 to CSKA Moscow, and deservedly so after a thoroughly dominant display. That in itself means this game itself is fairly redundant so approach with caution if betting here.
I’m determined to bet in this game due to the lacklustre and frankly weak display from the Cypriot giants in Russia last week. I don’t know whether it’s that they suffered without having played many competitive games of late or if the climate change did them a lot of damage or if they were just simply outclassed but the fact remains that Anorthosis are not in the best shape for this game as they demonstrated with their 4-0 defeat. They’re not the side that they used to be under former Georgian international Temur Ketsbaia. It’s not necessarily a lessened ability that hinders them but more of a lack of confidence. I mean, take the position of goalkeeper, for instance. Due to the continuous errors of Slovak goalkeeper Matus Kozacik, Anorthosis brought in replacement Arguello from Orihuela in the Spanish Segunda Division B instead of trying to work with Kozacik. Arguello played just a few games for Anorthosis and was sent off in Moscow in the first leg of this tie for what was one of many blatant times where the Anorthosis defence didn’t communicate with the goalkeeper so Arguello gave away a penalty. Arguello is suspended for the game tonight so what now – do Anorthosis bring in error-prone and now devoid-of-confidence Kozacik? Or do they take a risk and field unproven youngster Gavriel Constantinou? It’s a dilemma for Anorthosis, whoever plays in goal, because the ease with which CSKA destroyed them in the first leg was frightening and the majority of the damage came from set pieces not being defended well enough, which is a specialist area of the Russian giants. Anorthosis tend to rely overly on the ageing duo of Cape Verde Islands striker Cafu and ex-Olympiakos Piraeus winger/striker Okkas as far as goalscoring goes but you have to be concerned that they barely created a chance in Russia in the first leg despite both afore-mentioned players playing in the game. We all know Russia is far from the ideal place for an away game but it was the manner of Anorthosis’ defeat that concerned me and concerns me even for their game tonight. What’s Anorthosis’ game plan going to be – get the ball to Marangos and hope he bails them out? It’s not enough against a CSKA side designed to stifle their opponents so Anorthosis look to have a lot of problems tonight.
It’s been some time since I could feel confident backing any CSKA Moscow side due to their departures concerning me far more than their new signings were impressing me. The decline saw the likes of Jo, Erkin Caner, Daniel Carvalho, Yury Zhirkov, and Ramon all move on one way or another and now that list has been added to by Milos Krasic’s move to Juventus. CSKA still haven’t been able to replace Jo although they’ve tried testing the water with Polish striker Dawid Janczyk, Niger striker Maazou, former Spartak Moscow Brazilian striker Ricardo Jesus, Dynamo Kiev’s Brazilian hot prospect Guilherme on loan (who returned to Kiev when the two clubs couldn’t agree a fee), and Czech hot prospect Tomas Necid but none have filled the void, although Necid will be a good striker in years to come. Vagner Love’s return to Brazil for personal reasons saw CSKA go on a barren run goalscoring-wise and looked to be done for, in all honesty. However, they have finally perhaps struck gold with the acquisition of ex-Young Boys Bern striker Doumbia, from the Ivory Coast. He’s a real workhorse and yet excels with pace, aerial ability, and strength. CSKA have missed that kind of striker and he’s starting to settle well as he showed in the first leg of this tie. Couple that with the fact that Vagner Love is now back and he’s already inspired CSKA to glistening displays that include a 2-1 derby win at Spartak Moscow and you’ll see that CSKA Moscow are a little more believable than before. Krasic has been replaced by Tosic, which is both a good and a bad move. Tosic is better with set pieces, which will suit CSKA to no end, but Krasic could change a game with his lightning pace so it remains to be seen how CSKA deal with that in due course. The emergence of playmaker Alan Dzagoev has given CSKA goals where they’ve needed them and the talented Japanese midfielder Keisuke Honda has also stepped up to the plate with excellent set pieces and a great passing range so CSKA do have potential here, although Honda’s future is unknown currently as rifts with manager Slutsky continue to materialise. The unsung heroes for CSKA, however, are their defensive stalwarts – Akinfeev in goal, the Berzeutskiy brothers, and Sergey Ignashevich. They’re rock-solid and understand each other very well indeed, each covering where the others fail. It’s on this backline that CSKA first achieved success in European football some five years ago and they’re still together now so experience is not even the word for these guys! CSKA’s weak-point is emerging youngster Schennikov although he’ll be a good player himself in years to come – he just lacks a little experience currently. Slutsky’s possession football with CSKA tends to mean that their defence is not often called upon anyway and I expect that to be the case tonight. I’m a bit concerned that CSKA don’t need to win this game but knowing Slutsky and an in-form Vagner Love, CSKA should make their presence felt tonight.
CSKA not only dominated the first leg through the reasons I mentioned earlier but also because they’re mid-season in the Russian Premier League so they’re a lot fitter than their Cypriot opponents. CSKA may have a hard time adapting to the climate in Larnaca tonight but that’s the only difficulty I can see for them. I can see them playing a short-passing game here and just basically boring Anorthosis into submission by hitting them with counters and with Vagner Love in such excellent and inspirational form, you have to feel that CSKA are going to take advantage of Anorthosis today, particularly given Anorthosis’ goalkeeping issues and inability to defend from set pieces. Therefore, barring a CSKA capitulation, I think the away win at 11/10 shows some value today.
Verdict: CSKA Moscow to win at 11/10.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Salzburg – both sides to score at 3/4.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv are the best side in Israel and Salzburg are the best side in Austria; fact. Hapoel don’t play football like most Israeli sides as they do enjoy playing attractive attacking football. I don’t know how real their “match fixing” ordeal was when they bizarrely lost 1-0 to Aktobe Lento in Kazakhstan in the earlier qualifying round of this competition but what I would urge you to not do is to assume that’s how Hapoel are usually – they’re not. They demonstrated in Austria how good they can be by winning 3-2 and if you cast your minds back to last year, you’ll recall that they overcame arguably the best Rapid Vienna side in years 3-0 both home and away so don’t go writing off the Israeli side here – they’re really not the same as other Israeli outfits and their win in Austria was no fluke. Salzburg themselves are no clowns but Boghossian’s integration in to the side to replace Marc Janko is taking time and that’s why Salzburg’s play falters against the better sides. They have some very good players in their side and they’ll probably still win their domestic title (again!) but are they ready to come to Israel and win this game as they have to? I have my doubts. What I don’t doubt, however, is their ability to generate goals from nowhere and that has been shown in all of the games they’ve played in European football this year so I expect that to occur again. I’m not confident on who will actually progress here; I think it will be a very good game. However, with the tie finely-poised following a 3-2 win for Hapoel Tel-Aviv in Austria, this tie looks set to be a very good one too with plenty of goals. Neither side are particularly solid at the back at the moment and both prefer to attack than defend so my call here is for both sides to score at 3/4.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 3/4.
Peterborough United vs Cardiff City – away win at 5/4.
The majority of us got burned the last time that the League Cup came around so kudos if you managed to squeeze anything from the limp rag of the League Cup, nadir of English footballing competition. Nonetheless, I’ll bravely toss my hat into the ring with two selections today, the first one being this game at the London Road Ground.
I have a lot of respect for Peterborough United because they’re real battlers and the fact that they’ve already come from behind to win twice this season speaks volumes for their belief. However, it also speaks volumes for their inability to defend, which is what my primary focus is on for this game today. Peterborough have shipped eight goals in three consecutive games thus far in English competition and two of those sides either play in the division below or were just promoted from the division below! I cannot fault Peterborough’s ever-present attacking potency but their defence is terrifying and should be exposed horribly against good sides, as I expect it to be today. I’m sure the majority of you saw Cardiff City’s 4-0 romp over Doncaster Rovers at weekend, which was largely inspired by Welsh legend Craig Bellamy joining them on loan, with he himself getting on the scoresheet with a beauty of a free-kick. The mood in the Cardiff camp for both players and fans alike couldn’t be higher following the acquisition of Bellamy and their excellent display against Doncaster so they bring a lot of momentum into this game. I fancy Cardiff to get promoted from the Championship minefield this year, particularly with both Koumas and Bellamy now in their ranks on loan, and it’s long overdue that they do get a shot in the Premier League, really. Dave Jones has done a fantastic job there and the likes of Boothroyd and Ledley consistently put in good displays for the Bluebirds so Cardiff are not simply a side of two loaned players; they have quality to the core. My concern for them would be their occasionally haphazard defending but in all honesty, if they can’t outscore a defensively-inept Peterborough United whilst everything is in their favour then they do have issues! I think the odds are just a tad generous on the away win so my call is for Cardiff to win this one at 5/4.
Verdict: Cardiff City to win at 5/4.
Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers – away win at 5/4.
I rarely bet on Bolton Wanderers at the best of times but the introduction of former Bolton Wanderers striker Owen Coyle to the helm has transformed them from a boring 4-5-1 side to an attacking 4-3-3 side. Coyle is no mug; he knows the lower leagues and he knows how to get results, as minnows Burnley proved by gaining promotion with a limited budget under his stewardship. Bolton began to show the benefits of Coyle’s football when they appointed him last year and have shown it again this year in both pre-season friendlies and also by nullifying Fulham (albeit in a 0-0 draw) and winning impressively 3-1 at West Ham United at weekend. Coyle has brought in good and experienced signings – Klasnic, Petrov, Blake – and Bolton do look better for it. Most importantly, Coyle has got Swedish misfit Johan Elmander scoring goals and Toulouse fans can tell you how dangerous that can be. Coyle has this Bolton side believing in themselves and they’ve not done that for some years so I fancy them to have a very good year this time around.
Southampton’s dreams have curled up and died before their eyes following the shock of their chairman dying. I don’t know the ins and outs of how it impacts their future as he poured a lot of money into the club, both on and off the field, but it’s certainly impacted the south coast side, as you’d expect. They’ve played three home games this season and have only won one of them, which was a Leagu Cup game against Bournemouth. They’ve lost at home to Plymouth Argyle 1-0 and drawn at home to Leyton Orient 1-1 in their two League One home games thus far so life isn’t particularly rosy for the promotion favourites currently. It’s not helped that star striker Rickie Lambert has only played once for them this season as his and midfielder Adam Lallana’s goals pushed them towards the promotion places last year. Now that he is back, however, Southampton may finally begin to climb the League One table. However, I feel this kind of game is too soon for us to see the best of Lambert and with Southampton looking vulnerable without him at his best, I think the hosts are there for the taking tonight.
This is undoubtedly a risky call as Southampton will be motivated for this game as they’re a big club and understandably resent not being in the Premier League themselves so games against Premier League sides are often hotly-contested affairs. However, on both the quality and goals front, I have to favour this new-look Bolton Wanderers side to do the damage today. I would approach with caution as it’s the League Cup but the away win at 5/4 looks an interesting one today.
Verdict: Bolton Wanderers to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Universidad de Chile, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Blackburn Rovers, Flora Tallinn.
Recommended bets:
Blackburn Rovers and Cardiff City at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Salzburg (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Basel (4) 1-1
Anderlecht vs Partizan Belgrade (7) 2-0
Sevilla CF vs Sporting Braga (4) 0-0
Sampdoria vs Werder Bremen (6) 2-1
UEFA Europa League Qualifier:
Anorthosis Famagusta vs CSKA Moscow (6) 0-2
Copa Sudamericana:
Universidad de Chile vs Oriente Petrolero (9) -1.5 handicap
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Universidad Cesar Vallejo (6) under 2.5 goals
English League Cup:
Bradford City vs Preston North End (5) both sides to score
Brentford vs Hull City (5) 1-1
Crewe Alexandra vs Ipswich Town (6) 1-2
Hartlepool United vs Wigan Athletic (4) over 2.5 goals
Leeds United vs Leicester City (7) 1-1
Leyton Orient vs West Bromwich Albion (7) 1-2
Milton Keynes Dons vs Blackpool (6) over 2.5 goals
Millwall vs Middlesbrough (6) under 2.5 goals
Morecambe vs Burnley (6) 0-0
Peterborough United vs Cardiff City (6) over 2.5 goals
Portsmouth vs Crystal Palace (5) 1-1
Scunthorpe United vs Sheffield Wednesday (4) 2-1
Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers (7) 1-2
Stoke City vs Shrewsbury Town (7) 2-0
Sunderland vs Colchester United (7) over 2.5 goals
Tranmere Rovers vs Swansea City (5) 0-1
Watford vs Notts County (6) 1-0
West Ham United vs Oxford United (7) 2-0
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Southend United (8) 2-0
Blackburn Rovers vs Norwich City (8) 2-0
Reading vs Northampton Town (6) both sides to score
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Sillamae Kalev vs Nomme Kalju (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Flora Tallinn vs Flora Paide (9) -1.5 handicap
Swedish Superettan:
Orgryte vs Falkenberg (6) under 2.5 goals
Landskrona BoIS vs Angelholm (5)
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Zamora vs Deportivo Petare (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!