AS Roma vs Internazionale
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Serie A game in the nation’s capital between AS Roma and Internazionale.
Despite spending a lot of money pre-season, Roma still have a lot of work to do to catch the likes of Internazionale. Although they now possess a much better class of player (and perhaps can end their tenure as a “feeder club” to the likes of Internazionale) they still have an awful lot to learn about team spirit. This side plays as a bunch of talented individuals and their comical attempts at defending reflect that perfectly. In terms of attacking and scoring goals, Roma have been very much on the ball this season, scoring in the vast majority of their games. However, they’re very weak at the back and almost always concede, especially at home. To make matters worse for Roma, they’re a very temperamental side and thus are rather prone to sudden red cards so I’m usually nervous about taking them to beat…well, anyone, really!
That said, Internazionale’s attempts at defending lately have been comical too. They somehow allowed an ageing Miccoli to absolutely destroy them mid-week in a bizarre 4-4 draw with Palermo. Inter had plenty of chances to put the game to bed but failed to do so and were duly punished by Miccoli and co. The incompetence of ex-Genoa centre-back Ranocchia was glaringly obvious and Palermo capitalised just as well as I expect Roma to today. Inter looked quite good going forward, though – Milito was in immense form and it showed with his brace of goals. However, Inter are not playing well enough to win this game just yet, in my view, so I can’t take the 1×2 market seriously today.
Ranieri knows his old club well so Inter may have a slight edge here, despite Roma changing a lot of personnel since Ranieri was there. However, the 1×2 market is treacherous so let’s avoid that one! What I do like is over 2.5 goals here though – neither side can defend and both have strong attacks so my call is over 2.5 goals at evens.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Chelsea vs Manchester United – away win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Chelsea are in a transitional period and thus have looked very unconvincing in most of their games over the past few months, in my view. There’s no doubting the quality of their personnel, nor the ability of their manager, but the fact is that it takes time to alter the way a team plays and to amend the personnel that are selected to enforce it. Villas-Boas has a lot of work to do here behind the scenes and Chelsea’s lack of cohesion over the months proves that. I’m sure they will be back to their best in due course but I’d be surprised to see it happen this season.
For today’s game, Chelsea have two big absentees – Cole and Terry. Cole’s absence means that Chelsea have to put someone in to cover him. It doesn’t sound too bad until you realise that Chelsea are facing arguably the most in-form right winger in British football right now in Antonio Valencia so Chelsea are in for a rough ride in that aspect. Terry’s absence leaves Chelsea with a lack of leadership at the back and Ivanovic tends to buckle under the pressure if he’s the mainstay defender but what other choice do they have? Cahill is not really ready to dominate this Chelsea defence although it does look more and more likely that he’ll be playing here. All in all, Chelsea’s defence will be somewhat unfamiliar at best and with the growing murmurs amongst fans of the lack of faith in goalkeeper Cech, I think we realistically have to expect Chelsea to concede goals here.
The good news for Chelsea is that they have Essien back, who is easily the best central midfielder in the world for my money. They really, really miss him when he doesn’t play and he loves to show up in the big games so I’m sure we’ll see him today. His return should help them with a bit of authority in their ranks given that Drogba is still in Africa. That solves one problem but Chelsea are not scoring goals right now and with a lessening number of options, it’s hard to see Chelsea winning this one.
United have injury problems of their own but as ever, wily Ferguson is keeping everyone guessing as to how many of the listed players are injured and when they’ll be back. The players in question are Rooney, Nani, Young, Cleverley, and De Gea. Personally, I think they’ll all be fit for this one although I’ll be surprised – and disappointed – to see Young feature here. He was disappointing before his injury and has been out for some time so I think there’ll be better games for him to return in. The rest, though – they should feature, especially as Cleverley was supposed to be back against Liverpool last week if we track back to Fergie’s initial comments regarding the return of the playmaker.
Not many are acknowledging it but the fact is that young Tom Cleverley is rapidly becoming an essential part of the “new look” United as they look to emulate the Barcelona passing style. His absence for United this season has been a much bigger blow than most realise and I think we’ll only see that in its truest form when he returns. Another arising star is Welbeck and as a United fan I have no doubt in my mind that he has been United’s best striker this season. Rooney has been hit-and-miss but Welbeck consistently delivers a good, enthusiastic, and incisive display, which you can’t always say for Rooney. United have a lot of depth, which helps as a lot of players are still out, even if we exclude the above list. They should have a stronger starting eleven today than Chelsea, though, and that counts a lot here, in my view.
Games between Chelsea and United are always tight at Stamford Bridge. I’d probably be called biased if I said that United have deserved to win at least three out of their last four away games against Chelsea but those are genuinely my thoughts. I think this Chelsea side is vulnerable and a composed and determined United display should be enough to see the visitors take at least a draw from this game. For me, the away win with draw no bet cover looks interesting at 9/10.
Verdict: Manchester United to win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Genoa vs Lazio – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
This tip follows the same route as all of my Genoa tips lately have – they are missing too many defenders and they look much stronger going forward than they did earlier in the season. The trip to Genova is easy for no side in Italy and Lazio are no exception despite them being arguably one of the most adept sides in Serie A when playing away from home. Genoa have bolstered their attacking options by signing experienced Serie A hitman Gilardino and that’s an impressive coup for them. His signature means that the pressure is off Palacio and thus Genoa can start to mix things up, which has caused problems for all the sides that they’ve encountered lately. However, Genoa lack composure with a lead and cannot keep a clean sheet right now so I’m not touching the 1×2 market here. Lazio still have a long list of absentees and have been hit-and-miss lately but they’re generally reliable enough when it comes to poaching a goal and making a nuisance of themselves. Lazio could upset the odds and get a result here, such is their tactical prowess on the road. However, I am not touching the 1×2 market because there are far too many variants here for me to be confident enough to take a winner. Therefore, I’m rolling with over 2.5 goals because Genoa’s games have all gone over 2.5 goals lately due to poor defending and strong attacking, not to mention a lack of composure at the back, and thus I expect more of the same today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Juventus vs Siena – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
Hopefully this one won’t be a repeat of Napoli vs Cesena midweek as that was a real coupon buster! However, I have a lot more faith in Juventus than I do in Napoli so I expect them to do the business here.
Juventus bolstered their squad in the transfer window with the signing of Padoin etc. and that’ll prove useful as no side can win anything in any league without rotating players from time to time. On paper, they’re capable of naming the best side in Serie A, in my view, and they tend to show it best at home. Juventus apply themselves very well at home due to their fanatical support, which in turn is due to the fact that Juventus are actually the only side in Italy to own their own stadium – the fans love that! It’s a bit of a catch twenty-two scenario but in a good way, if that makes sense, as both the players and the fans need each other and the combination that is currently there works well. Conte has done well with Juventus this season and I think they’ll be as incisive and dangerous as ever here. Siena are no mugs on the road, often frustrating sides, but they lack the killer instinct in the final third. They put themselves about in the transfer window and made a few signings that impressed me but getting something from this game is a bridge too far, in my view. I hope Juventus will get a goal in the first-half to avoid the frustrations in the second-half that would almost inevitably see lunatic Chiellini get sent off and it would also allow Juventus to play their favoured counter-attacking game and kill Siena off. Either way, I think taking Juventus to beat the -1.5 handicap looks very appealing at evens.
Verdict: Juventus to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia CF – home win at evens.
I’m definitely climbing aboard the Diego Simeone appreciation society bus for this one! Inexplicably, he’s transformed a bunch of temperamental, overrated, selfish, lunatics into a very well-organised and well-oiled machine! I don’t know how he’s done it so quickly, let alone managed it at all, but he absolutely has. Atletico’s defence looks solid and hard to breach whereas their tactics at the other end of the field are excellent as they’re allowing Falcao to do what he does best – put the ball in the net! Atletico finally look a good team and I like that. They should be able to take advantage of defensively-inept Valencia today although Valencia are no mugs on the road themselves. Valencia do lack quality, though – their midfield is their sole strength nowadays, in my view. Valencia have injury problems ahead of this game and although I do think that they’ll find a way through Atletico’s defence here, I also think that they will lose this game against their in-form and impressive hosts. Lastly, Atletico have had a week to prepare for this game whereas Valencia played a gruelling game with Barcelona mid-week so Atletico should be fresher than Valencia. For me, the home win is well worth a bet at evens if Atletico continue to show their frightening potential.
Verdict: Atletico Madrid to win at evens.
Sporting Gijon vs Osasuna – lay Sporting Gijon at 4/5.
Earlier this week, Sporting Gijon condemned themselves to relegation by firing Preciado. Well, that’s my opinion, anyway – I can’t see any other manager being able to understand the Sporting Gijon ethos better than he did, nor get the best out of what I can only describe as predominantly average players. I’ll be interested to see if his replacement can make Sporting Gijon play good football like he did, although I have my reservations over whether it’s possible or not.
I know Sporting weren’t playing particularly well at the time but Preciado knows how to avoid the drop – he’s done it many times before. Why fire him now, at the end of the transfer window? It just doesn’t make sense and I think it’s horrible news for Sporting, not to mention horribly-timed.
Odds are jumping all over the place here due to Sporting’s new manager syndrome, which generally means a home win is in the offering. Maybe it will be today – who knows? All I know is that Sporting don’t function well in attack without the departed Castro and that the odds they’ve been given to win this one are too short against a side that is consistently hard to beat both at home and away so I’m opposing them here.
Osasuna still have some injury problems ahead of this game and they’re on a bit of a bad run too, to be fair. However, they’re one of the most tenacious and well-organised sides in the Primera Liga, which helps them compensate for their lack of firepower. I think they’ll play well enough to frustrate a vulnerable Sporting side today and I think they’re good enough to keep the hosts out. Osasuna are not a popular side in Spain for varying reasons but Osasuna use that reputation to motivate themselves and thus very few sides have actually beat them this season.
For me, Osasuna have a better chance of puncturing the honeymoon start for Sporting Gijon than the odds suggest. I’d not take the tip at anything less than 4/5 as that would be putting Osasuna into a higher place than they frankly deserve to be. However, at 4/5, I’m all over laying unconvincing Sporting Gijon today.
Verdict: Lay Sporting Gijon at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Club Brugge, Omonia Nicosia, Juventus, Young Boys Bern.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
African Nations:
Gabon vs Mali (6) 1-0
Ghana vs Tunisia (7) 2-0
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Newcastle Jets (7) 1-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs Racing Genk (7) over 2.5 goals
Club Brugge vs Germinal Beerschot (8) 2-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Antofagasta vs Deportes Iquique (6) 1-0
Union Espanola vs Cobresal (7) 2-1
Cobreloa vs Union La Calera (7) 2-1
Union San Felipe vs Rangers (7) 1-0
Colombian Primera A:
Real Cartagena vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (4) 1-1
Boyaca Chico vs La Equidad Bogota (6) 1-0
Independiente Medellin vs Envigado (7) 1-0
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Cypriot Division 1:
AEL Limassol vs APOEL Nicosia (5) 0-0
Nea Salamis vs Olympiakos Nicosia (4) 1-2
Omonia Nicosia vs Angennisi Deryneia (9) -1.5 handicap
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Olmedo Riobamba vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 1-2
El Nacional Quito vs Tecnico Universitario (7) 2-1
Manta vs Liga de Quito (6) 0-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Deportivo Cuenca (7) 1-0
English Premier League:
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa (6) 2-1
Chelsea vs Manchester United (6) 0-1
English Championship:
Derby County vs Nottingham Forest (4) at least one red card in this game
French Ligue 1:
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Auxerre (6) 1-0
Sochaux vs LOSC Lille (5) 2-1
Olympique de Marseille vs Olympique Lyonnais (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
German Bundesliga:
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen (5) 1-1
Kaiserslautern vs Koln (5) 2-1
Greek Super League:
Asteras Tripolis vs Doxa Dramas (7) 2-0
Panaitolikos vs Atromitos (5) 2-1
AEK Athens vs Panionios (7) 1-0
Xanthi vs Aris Salonika (6) 1-0
PAOK Salonika vs Olympiakos Piraeus (6) 1-1
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Haifa (6) 1-0
Italian Serie A:
Genoa vs Lazio (6) 2-1
Palermo vs Atalanta Bergamo (7) over 2.5 goals
Lecce vs Bologna (7) 1-0
Novara vs Cagliari (4) 1-2
AS Roma vs Internazionale (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
AC Milan vs SSC Napoli (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Chievo Verona vs Parma (6) 0-0
Juventus vs Siena (8) 2-0
Fiorentina vs Udinese (5) 0-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs Pachuca (6) 1-1
Puebla vs Tijuana (7) 2-0
America vs Tigres UANL (7) 1-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Utrecht (8) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Heracles Almelo vs PSV Eindhoven (4) 1-1
NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (5) 2-2
Groningen vs RKC Waalwijk (7) 2-1
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Sol de America vs Cerro Porteno Presidente Franco (5) 1-0
Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno (7) 1-2
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sporting Gijon vs Osasuna (4) 0-1
Sevilla CF vs Villarreal CF (6) 1-0
Real Zaragoza vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (7) 1-0
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia CF (7) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Cartagena vs Hercules Alicante (5)
Real Valladolid vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (7)
Swiss Super League:
Basel vs Sion (7) 2-1
Grasshopper Zurich vs Thun (6) 1-0
Young Boys Bern vs Servette (8) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Mersin Idmanyurdu vs Sivasspor (5) 2-2
Kayserispor vs Genclerbirligi (6) 1-0
Bursaspor vs Orduspor (7) 2-1
Fenerbahce vs Besiktas JK (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!