Aston Villa vs Chelsea
FreePlease accept my apologies if the previews are a little short today – some stuff is going on in my life right now that regrettably commands my attention more often than not.
Today’s featured game is the English Premier League game between Aston Villa and Chelsea. Chelsea have struggled at Villa Park in the past as Aston Villa have a very promising squad but I think Chelsea will have too much for them today.
Aston Villa have recently welcomed experienced but somewhat bizarre French manager Gerard Houllier to the helm at Villa Park and I’ve yet to make up my mind as to what that means for them long-term. He’s certainly a capable manager; this has been demonstrated on various levels. However, his signings are questionable and I’m not sure he’s what Villa need. Villa haven’t really impressed me of late with an unconvincing win at local rivals Wolverhampton Wanderers being followed by a defeat at haphazard Tottenham Hotspur and the reason I’m not convinced is because their defence looks rocky. Under O’Neill, Villa looks secure at the back. They don’t look secure now and that’s a big problem, especially against a good side like Chelsea. Villa are unbeaten in their three Premier League home games this season so they’re still a force to be reckoned with. However, I don’t think the manager has had enough time to gel with his team to prepare them for this kind of game and I don’t think his star players are playing well enough for Villa to do the necessary damage to cause an upset here.
Chelsea, however, are rolling on strongly as expected. They’ve notched up six wins in seven Premier League games and boast one of the most experienced and talented squads in the division. I’ll never have the same respect for Chelsea that I do for Arsenal and Manchester United from a football perspective but I can only admire their relentlessly efficient winning ways, something which both of the afore-mentioned are lacking currently. Chelsea are supposedly missing star striker Drogba for this game, which is naturally a blow. They’re also rumoured to be missing John Terry (late fitness test) as well as Alex so Villa could have some fun at their expense in defence. That said, the Chelsea website suggests that Terry will play so we’ll have to wait and see. Nonetheless, I don’t think Villa are playing well enough to exploit Chelsea’s defensive frailties and I fancy Chelsea to outscore Villa either way. Chelsea also miss Sturridge, Benayoun, Kalou, and long-term absentee Frank Lampard for this game but I only consider Lampard important from that list and he’s been out for most of their games this season anyway.
A game against Aston Villa is never easy but this Chelsea side looks far too strong to do anything but win the game, in my humble opinion. They’re strong, well-organised, tenacious, and efficient – four things that Villa have rarely demonstrated this season. For me, the away win represents some good value at 4/5 today.
Verdict: Chelsea to win at 4/5.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Torpedo Zhodino vs FC Minsk – away win at 4/5.
Simply a class difference here. FC Minsk are chasing an unprecedented European place and need to keep winning. They’re not the most assured at the back but they’re the top goalscorers in the division away from home with an average of nearly two goals scored per away game so they are to be taken seriously. I normally wouldn’t take these odds because Zhodino are a tough defensive unit at home but Zhodino need the points themselves to beat the drop and if they’re attacking FC Minsk then they’re going to get torn apart. Zhodino won’t lie down here but they should be comfortably overrun and outscored by a simply better side today.
Verdict: FC Minsk to win at 4/5.
Belshina vs Naftan Novopolotsk – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Belshina are still looking jaded after a tiring first season back in the Vysshaya Liga and that’s no surprise with a limited squad available to them. Naftan, however, are finally showing their true colours after a dismal campaign and have won four on the bounce, including a 2-0 win against giants Dinamo Minsk lately. I don’t normally back Naftan away but they look very good at the moment – efficient, potent, and very much in control. They’re one of the few Vysshaya Liga sides flourishing at the moment whereas newcomers Belshina are really struggling because they’re conceding goals in a rather tired fashion. For me, the price on Naftan is too long despite their general inability away from home. Therefore, my call is the away win with draw no bet for the superior of these two sides.
Verdict: Naftan Novopolotsk to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Dnepr Mogilev vs BATE Borisov – lay BATE Borisov at 6/5.
Dnepr Mogilev are a better side than the table suggests, especially at home. Let’s not forget that this side qualified for European competition last season so don’t write them off here, irrespective of a poor campaign. Much like Naftan Novopolotsk from the previous preview, Dnepr are relishing this stage of the season and look impressive, scoring at will. They’ve destroyed a very good FC Minsk side here lately and gave Shakhtyor Soligorsk a real fright last match in a 3-2 defeat so I expect a lot from them today. They’ve only lost to BATE once in their last three home games and with BATE looking a bit stretched of late, I think they could stumble here. Their European game next week is some distance off but BATE are prioritising the competition so there’s the possibility that they may rest players or substitute them early etc. especially star striker Rodionov, who played for the Belarusian national team lately. BATE are conceding a little more than normal of late and to take that knowledge to Mogilev spells trouble. I think BATE’s price is too short against a consistently good host so I’ll be laying the visitors for this one.
Verdict: Lay BATE Borisov at 6/5.
Flamengo vs Internacional – home win at 5/4.
Flamengo are one of the few Serie A sides playing well currently. I’m consistently impressed by their attacking play of late. They look more confident with momentum on their side and they’re facing an Internacional side on the descent as they’ve got little else to play for having already won the Copa Libertadores. They’ve been resting players a lot lately and may do so tonight and they’ve also been poor on the road of late. Although I rate Internacional as a marginally better side here, I think the odds on Flamengo are good enough to take a chance on given recent events with both clubs.
Verdict: Flamengo to win at 5/4.
RoPS Rovaniemi vs KooTeePee Kotka – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
RoPS broke a few hearts last week by conceding a late goal to only win the game by a single goal and thus ruining my handicap pick. I don’t expect the same scenario this week. The code here is simple – win the game and they’re a Veikkausliiga side again. They’ve peaked just in time too as Viikingit Helsinki are pushing them to the wire. However, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – when RoPS are good, they’re really fucking good. They rarely win by a single goal – they much prefer destroying sides and they find that particularly easy to do in the far north of Finland in Rovaniemi. Trips to that land of ice are seldom fruitful as RoPS can testify by being the only Ykkonen side yet to lose a home game in a division where away wins are fairly common. RoPS are the top goalscoring side in the division and are simply the best side in the division. They’ve got momentum and a single goal here should set off a landslide win. KooTeePee have absolutely nothing to play for and thus shouldn’t make one of their rare ventures into the opposing half too often to exploit a fairly dodgy RoPS defence, leaving the scoreline to be decided by how many RoPS score. For me, the price on the handicap is a tad generous here when you consider that this side averages scoring three goals per home game so my call here is for RoPS to beat the -1.5 goal handicap.
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to win with a -1.5 goal handicap at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk, AA Gent, Levski Sofia, Hajduk Split, Cibalia Vinkovci, Anorthosis Famagusta, Manchester United, Cardiff City, Trans Narva, Viikingit Helsinki, RoPS Rovaniemi, Gamba Osaka, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, Valerenga Oslo, Libertad Asuncion, Jagiellonia Bialystok, Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala, Zenit St.Petersburg, Rubin Kazan, Rangers, Maribor, Ljungskile, Besiktas JK, Metalist Kharkiv, Bangor City, The New Saints.
Recommended bets:
Chelsea, Cardiff City, and Manchester United at 3/1.
RoPS Rovaniemi, Bangor City, and FC Minsk at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Arsenal de Sarandi (5) 0-0
All Boys vs Independiente (6) 1-1
Banfield vs Newells Old Boys (6) 1-0
Colon de Santa Fe vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 1-2
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs Sydney FC (6) both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets (7) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Sturm Graz vs SV Ried (4) 1-1
LASK Linz vs Wiener Neustadt (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Salzburg vs SV Kapfenberg (7) 2-0
Rapid Vienna vs Wacker Innsbruck (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dinamo Minsk vs Partizan Minsk (7) 2-0
Torpedo Zhodino vs FC Minsk (7) over 2.5 goals
Belshina vs Naftan Novopolotsk (5) 0-1
Dnepr Mogilev vs BATE Borisov (4) 1-1
Shakhtyor Solgiorsk vs Vitebsk (8) 2-0
Dinamo Brest vs Neman Grodno (6) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent vs Kortrijk (8) 2-0
Germinal Beerschot vs Lierse SK (6) 1-0
Charleroi vs Lokeren (4) over 2.5 goals
Eupen vs Sint-Truiden (6) 1-1
Westerlo vs Mechelen (5) 2-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Flamengo vs Internacional (6) 2-1
Atletico Paranaense vs Goias (6) 1-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Sliven vs Litex Lovech (6) 0-1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Beroe (7) 2-1
Akademik Sofia vs Minior Pernik (5) 1-1
Rakovski vs Montana (6) 0-0
Levski Sofia vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (8) 2-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Santiago Wanderers vs Union San Felipe (6) 1-1
Union Espanola vs Universidad de Chile (4) 2-2
San Luis vs Audax Italiano (7) over 2.5 goals
Colombian Primera A:
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima (4) 1-2
Real Cartagena vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (6) 1-1
America de Cali vs Deportes Quindio (6) 2-1
Envigado vs Millonarios Bogota (5) 1-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Cibalia Vinkovci vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac (8) 2-0
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varteks Varazdin (3) 1-2, draw no bet
Istra 1961 vs Rijeka (4) 0-1
Sibenik vs Split (5) under 2.5 goals
Hajduk Split vs Slaven Koprivnica (8) over 2.5 goals
Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb (7) over 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
Anorthosis Famagusta vs Ermis (8) 2-0
AEK Larnaca vs APOP/Kinyras (7) 2-1
A.E.Paphos vs AEL Limassol (6) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sparta Prague vs Teplice (7) 2-0
Danish Superligaen:
SonderjyskE vs Aalborg BK (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Danish 1st Division:
HB Koge vs Fredericia (4)
Bronshoj vs Roskilde (6) over 2.5 goals
Hobro vs Vestjaelland (4) draw no bet
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Universidad Catolica vs Independiente (6) 1-0
Deportivo Quito vs El Nacional Quito (4) under 2.5 goals
Espoli Cayambe vs Deportivo Cuenca (5) 1-1
Olmedo Riobamba vs Liga de Quito (5) 0-1
Manta vs Barcelona Guayaquil (7) 1-1
English Premier League:
Arsenal vs Birmingham City (7) over 2.5 goals
Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City (6) 2-1
Fulham vs Tottenham Hotspur (5) 1-1
Manchester United vs West Bromwich Albion (8) over 2.5 goals
Newcastle United vs Wigan Athletic (6) 2-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs West Ham United (5) 1-0
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (8) 1-2
English Championship:
Cardiff City vs Bristol City (8)
Scunthorpe United vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
Reading vs Swansea City (4)
Sheffield United vs Burnley (6) under 2.5 goals
Queens Park Rangers vs Norwich City (7) over 2.5 goals
Ipswich Town vs Coventry City (7)
Derby County vs Preston North End (6) over 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace vs Millwall (6)
Leicester City vs Hull City (5)
Portsmouth vs Watford (6)
Barnsley vs Nottingham Forest (6)
Middlesbrough vs Leeds United (5)
English League One:
Bristol Rovers vs Rochdale (6) over 2.5 goals
Charlton Athletic vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6) under 2.5 goals
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Walsall (4)
Exeter City vs Carlisle United (5) draw no bet
Huddersfield Town vs Southampton (3) draw no bet
Tranmere Rovers vs Brentford (6)
Bournemouth vs Milton Keynes Dons (6)
Peterborough United vs Swindon Town (6) over 2.5 goals
Yeovil Town vs Sheffield Wednesday (5)
Leyton Orient vs Hartlepool United (5)
Notts County vs Plymouth Argyle (6)
Oldham Athletic vs Colchester United (5)
English League Two:
Stockport County vs Barnet (4)
Aldershot Town vs Morecambe (6)
Northampton Town vs Hereford United (6)
Stevenage vs Burton Albion (6)
Port Vale vs Gillingham (6)
Shrewsbury Town vs Lincoln City (7)
Bradford City vs Cheltenham Town (4)
Southend United vs Crewe Alexandra (6)
Torquay United vs Bury (6) draw no bet
Wycombe Wanderers vs Chesterfield (6)
Accrington Stanley vs Rotherham United (5)
Macclesfield Town vs Oxford United (5)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Paide vs Nomme Kalju (6) over 2.5 goals
Lootus vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (5) 1-2
Sillamae Kalev vs Kuressaare (6) over 2.5 goals
Viljandi Tulevik vs Trans Narva (8) 0-2
Flora Tallinn vs Levadia Tallinn (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS Kuopio vs Jaro Pietarsaari (5) 2-1
Haka Valkeakoski vs FC Honka Espoo (5) both sides to score
Finnish Ykkonen:
Jippo Joensuu vs OPS Oulu (5)
FC Espoo vs TPV Tampere (4) draw no bet
Viikingit Helsinki vs MP Mikkeli (9)
PoPa Pori vs HJK II (9)
PS Kemi Kings vs Hameenlinna (5)
RoPS Rovaniemi vs KooTeePee Kotka (9)
KPV Kokkola vs PK-35 Helsinki (6) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
Auxerre vs Girondins de Bordeaux (5) 1-1
Stade Brestois vs Arles (7) 1-0
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs AS Monaco (6) 1-1
Olympique de Marseille vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (7) over 2.5 goals
Montpellier HSC vs Sochaux (5) 1-0
Toulouse vs Paris Saint-Germain (6) 1-1
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich vs Hannover 96 (5) 1-1
Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart (6) 2-1
Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg (7) over 2.5 goals
Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV (4) 1-1
St.Pauli vs Nurnberg (5) 2-1
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Karlsruher SC vs VfL Bochum (5)
FSV Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC Berlin (6)
Greek Super League:
Panionios vs Ergotelis (5) 1-1
Panathinaikos vs PAOK Salonika (5) 1-1
Xanthi vs Olympiakos Piraeus (6) 1-2
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
MTK Budapest vs Debreceni VSC (5) 1-2
Vasas Budapest vs Szolnoki MAV (6) 1-0
Siofok vs Zalaegerszegi TE (6) 1-1
Budapest Honved vs Kecskemeti TE (6) 2-1
Ferencvaros vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (6) over 2.5 goals
Italian Serie A:
AC Milan vs Chievo Verona (5) 2-1
AS Roma vs Genoa (6) 2-1
Italian Serie B:
Atalanta Bergamo vs Ascoli (7)
Crotone vs Piacenza (7) under 2.5 goals
Frosinone vs Modena (5)
Livorno vs Torino (6)
Pescara vs Grosseto (5)
Portosummaga vs Varese (5) draw no bet
Sassuolo vs Novara (6)
Triestina vs Reggina (4) draw no bet
Vicenza vs Albinoleffe (5)
Japanese J-League:
Shonan Bellmare vs Kashima Antlers (7) 1-2
Vegalta Sendai vs FC Tokyo (5) 1-1
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Cerezo Osaka (5) 1-0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Jubilo Iwata (6) 2-1
Kawasaki Frontale vs Montedio Yamagata (7) over 2.5 goals
Gamba Osaka vs Omiya Ardija (8) 2-0
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kyoto Sanga (6) 1-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna (6) 1-0
San Luis vs Queretaro (5) 1-1
Pachuca vs Morelia (7) 2-1
Guadalajara vs Necaxa (3) 1-1
Monterrey vs Toluca (6) 2-1
Atlante vs Tigres UANL (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs NAC Breda (8) over 2.5 goals
FC Utrecht vs De Graafschap (6) 1-0
ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior Rotterdam (5) 2-1
VVV Venlo vs AZ Alkmaar (5) 0-1
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Twente Enschede (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Valerenga Oslo vs Stromsgodset (8) over 2.5 goals
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
3 de Febrero vs Tacuary (5) 1-1
Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Trinidense (7) 2-0
Nacional Asuncion vs Sol de America (7) 2-1
Libertad Asuncion vs Sport Colombia (8) 2-0
Peruvian Primera Division:
Inti Gas vs Universidad San Martin (5) 1-2
Leon de Huanuco vs Melgar FBC (7) 2-0
Juan Aurich vs Alianza Atletico (6) 2-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Slask Wroclaw vs Polonia Warsaw (5) 0-0
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Polonia Bytom (8) 2-0
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin (6) 2-1
Korona Kielce vs GKS Belchatow (5) 0-0
Polish Liga 1:
Sandecja Nowy Sacz vs Gornik Leczna (7)
Gorzow Wielkopolski vs Dolcan Zabki (7)
Ruch Radzionkow vs Pogon Szezecin (5)
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala vs Warta Poznan (8)
Kluczbork vs Piast Gliwice (5) draw no bet
Gornik Polkowice vs Ostrowiec Swietokryzski (7)
Odra Wodzislaw vs Katowice (6)
Romanian Liga:
Targu Mures vs Poli Timisoara (6) 1-2
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Sportul Studentesc (5) 1-0
Russian Premier League:
Tom Tomsk vs Saturn Moscow Oblast (5) 1-0
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Amkar Perm (8) 2-0
Rubin Kazan vs Rostov-na-Donu (8) 2-0
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen vs Hearts (6) 1-1
Hibernian vs Kilmarnock (5) 1-0
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs St.Johnstone (5) 1-1
Rangers vs Motherwell (8) 2-1
St.Mirren vs Hamilton Academicals (6) 0-0
Serbian Super Liga:
OFK Belgrade vs Spartak Subotica (6) 2-1
Metalac GM vs Jagodina (5) 1-1
Cukaricki vs BSK Borca (3) 1-2, draw no bet
Indjija vs Javor Ivanjica (6) 0-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Kosice vs Slovan Bratislava (5) 1-2
Tatran Presov vs Ruzomberok (5) 1-1
Dubnica vs Nitra (6) 1-1
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (5) 1-1
Senica vs Spartak Trnava (6) 1-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Celje vs Gorica (5) 1-1
Domzale vs Nafta Lendava (6) 2-0
Koper vs Rudar Velenje (6) 1-0
Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana (8) at least one red card in this game
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid vs Getafe (7) over 2.5 goals
Barcelona vs Valencia CF (3) 1-1
Malaga vs Real Madrid (4) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Betis Balompie vs Girona (8)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Barcelona II (5)
Huesca vs Cartagena (6)
Alcorcon vs Deportivo Xerez (5)
Villarreal II vs Celta de Vigo (6)
Albacete vs Ponferradina (5)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
AIK Solna vs Gefle (6) 1-0
Swedish Superettan:
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Jonkopings Sodra (5)
Landskrona BoIS vs Hammarby (6)
Angelholm vs IFK Norrkoping (5)
Ljungskile vs Vasby United (8)
Falkenberg vs Assyriska Sodertalje (6)
GIF Sundsvall vs Trollhattan (6)
Orgryte vs Brage (6)
Osters vs Degerfors (5)
Turkish Super Lig:
Eskisehirspor vs Istanbul BB (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Gaziantepspor vs Bucaspor (6) 0-0
Besiktas JK vs Manisaspor (8) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Obolon Kiev vs Sevastopol (5) 1-0
Dynamo Kiev vs Karpaty Lviv (5) 2-1
Metalist Kharkiv vs Volyn Lutsk (8) 2-0
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Cerro vs River Plate Montevideo (5) 1-1
Fenix vs Miramar Misiones (5) 1-0
Danubio vs Defensor Sporting (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Welsh Premier League:
Bangor City vs Newtown (9) -1.5 handicap
Carmarthen Town vs Bala Town (5) 1-1
The New Saints vs Haverfordwest County (8) -1.5 handicap
Enjoy your free betting tips!