Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Barcelona
FreeToday’s featured game is one very close to my heart as it’s the old rivalry between Basque country’s Athletic Club de Bilbao and Catalonia’s Barcelona. Two of Spain’s most successful sides in history lock horns at San Mames tonight with Barcelona dominating the trophy-winning days between the two clubs nowadays.
As an avid fan of Athletic Club de Bilbao, I have to first point out how hard it is for me to make this call. I’d love nothing more than to witness a home win here but frankly I just can’t see it. Why? Well, Athletic Club de Bilbao’s defence is weak at the best of times but with the influential Aitor Ocio missing at the back, Athletic Club de Bilbao look even more dubious than ever with Amorebieta usually the only one bothering to defend. Although Athletic Club de Bilbao have won their last two games consecutively and have a respectable home record, there’s really no easy way of saying that Barcelona are simply the better side these days.
Visitors Barcelona enter this fixture knowing that they’ve beaten Athletic in seven of their last eight meetings, drawing the other game. This is partially due to the excellent attack of Barcelona and woeful defending of Athletic, two characteristics that both sides tend to employ in most seasons. Barcelona are unbeaten so far this season and with eight wins from ten games it’s hard to see their run faltering tonight. They’ve scored an average of nearly three goals per game and have won two of their last three games, granting them considerable momentum ahead of this game.
Aside from Athletic missing Ocio for this game, they’re also suffered a potential blow with playmaker Fran Yeste being a major doubt for this game. Yeste is the man that pulls the strings for Athletic and without him they look somewhat devoid of creativity sometimes. However, Athletic welcome back wonderkid Iker Muniain from the U17 World Cup where he claimed a third place medal with Spain U17. He has an injury ahead of this game and is a doubt but if he plays then he’ll certainly cause problems in the Barcelona defence.
Visitors Barcelona have already received the bad news that striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic will not feature in this game due to injury. Whereas I’d consider this a hefty blow for any handicap containing Barcelona on the average day, I can’t let it affect my bet for this game purely because Athletic really cannot defend so any striker that Barcelona deploy in attack will get his chance.
Overall, as much as I love Athletic, I thoroughly expect them to be outclassed by the masters that are Barcelona. Athletic will fight tooth and nail for everything but they lack any kind of defensive cohesion without Ocio, they lack the smooth pass of Yeste when on the attack, and they miss the naive but effective runs of little Iker Muniain. Barcelona may miss Ibrahimovic but they’ve got more than enough quality to overcome a makeshift backline at San Mames.
Verdict: Barcelona to win with a -1.75 handicap at 6/4.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Atletico Tucuman vs Chacarita Juniors – home win at evens.
Hosts Atletico Tucuman have found life in the Primera Division tough, much as today’s opponents Chacarita Juniors have too. Each side has only won three games out of the fourteen that they’ve played and each are very much in a relegation dogfight – for this campaign, at least! It goes without saying to state that both of these sides are taking more points at home than they are away from home but one thing that has impressed me about Atletico Tucuman is that they’re very good goalscorers at home with just Banfield, Boca Juniors, and Colon de Santa Fe having scored more than they have. It’s one thing to win games but it’s another to look like winning games, which is partially why I prefer the home win in this game as Atletico Tucuman have shown more desire to still be in this division for years to come.
Visitors Chacarita Juniors are amongst the worst away sides in the league, something that’s illustrated by the fact that they’ve lost five times in seven away games. To make matters worse for Chacarita Juniors, they also enter this game with the knowledge that only today’s hosts Atletico Tucuman and bottom-placed Tigre have conceded more goals on the road than they have. Chacarita Juniors currently average conceding two goals per away game and this record is particularly unwelcome against a free-scoring Atletico Tucuman.
Although this should be a close game I do have to favour the home win as I’d expect both sides to make the most of their home advantage in any game they play due to their inability to compete on a skill level with other sides in this division. Aside from this, Atletico Tucuman are scoring goals for fun so I think there’s good value in the home win tonight.
Verdict: Atletico Tucuman to win at evens.
Sturm Graz vs SV Ried – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Sturm Graz tend to be the kind of side that you don’t associate with an over 2.5 goals call as their football is largely based upon their rock-solid defence. However, their defensive strength masks their relentlessly cool finishing, particularly at home where they average just under two goals scored per game. Whereas Sturm Graz aren’t one of the bigger goalscoring sides in the Bundesliga, visitors SV Ried are more than capable of making up the numbers with them as they have scored just two goals less than Sturm Graz this year although their goals are largely scored at home. Both of these sides are capable of going toe-to-toe and have proven this with four of the last five Bundesliga encounters between these two oufits going over 2.5 goals. Both sides have scored in the last three games between these two sides so taking over 2.5 goals looks a fairly straightforward moneymaker today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Westerlo vs Lokeren – home win at evens.
Westerlo aren’t really playing to their full potential so far this season with just four wins in fourteen games. Nonetheless, Westerlo have demonstrated over the past few years that they’ve more than capable of playing football – now they simply need to execute it! What better chance will Westerlo have than to do so than against second-bottom Lokeren? Westerlo’s home form may not be overly convincing but they’ve gained a substantial amount of their points there this season and will look to do so again today to try and steer clear of the relegation zone.
Visitors Lokeren are also a capable side but are far from demonstrating that are the present time. Three defeats on their winless run of five games has seen Lokeren emerge as relegation candidates. The biggest problem Lokeren have is scoring goals away from home, something they’ve done less than every other Eerste Divisie side this season. The backlash of this statistic is only to be expected; Lokeren have lost five of their six away games and won’t improve that record unless they start scoring goals.
With such a poor run of form still in the midst of Lokeren, it’s hard to look beyond a home win for Westerlo today.
Verdict: Westerlo to win at evens.
Pribram vs Slovacko – home win at 19/20.
After an outstanding start to their Gambrinus Liga campaign, hosts Pribram have drastically decreased in form and have descended rapidly down the table. They’re currently ninth in the table, which is still a good place to be for an average side, but their recent form doesn’t read well with four defeats and just one win in their last five games. Nonetheless, despite this run Pribram have maintained their good home form where they already boast four wins, one draw, and just one defeat from their six home games. Pribram aren’t a great side but they’re a capable side, particularly at home.
Visitors Slovacko appear to have left their two consecutive wins well behind them now as they’ve followed them up with two consecutive defeats. Slovacko simply don’t have the consistency or the ability to stay in the Gambrinus Liga currently as their away form indicates all too clearly with five defeats from seven away games, winning just once on that run. Slovacko are one of the biggest conceders in the division which is one of the main reasons that they’re only just hovering above the relegation zone.
Although Pribram aren’t exactly maestros of Czech football, they’re still head and shoulders above Slovacko and I thoroughly expect that to show today with their ever-reliable home form.
Verdict: Pribram to win at 19/20.
Liverpool vs Manchester City – lay Liverpool at 5/6.
The problems of Liverpool have been well-documented everywhere of late and their problems don’t appear to have solved themselves so Liverpool are still very much in shit street. Their best two players will be playing through the pain barrier (if indeed they do feature!) but they simply have to for Liverpool to look like a presentable side. Liverpool are really struggling for form and don’t appear capable of recreating the confident and efficient machine that they showed towards the end of last season.
Unfortunately for Liverpool, they’re facing a highly-motivated and tactically astute Manchester City side under the stewardship of former Manchester United striker Mark Hughes, who would no doubt love to get one over on Liverpool for various reasons. Manchester City’s honeymoon period of big signings may have ended but they still have a good level of ability in their team. They’ve not won in five games but they’ve not lost either, drawing all five games. However, if they make that six draws in a row today as I expect them to, then that’s good too as we’ll make some money on it! Manchester City have lost less away games than any other Premier League side this season with their one defeat coming at Old Trafford against bitter rivals Manchester United.
I feel these two sides are a lot closer in ability than people expect and I simply cannot for the life of me see Liverpool playing good enough football to score and win this game today against a very competent opponent with a good manager.
Verdict: Lay Liverpool at 5/6.
Manchester United vs Everton – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Manchester United simply haven’t convinced me this season. A lot of ignorant people blame players or say that they’ve lost it or that they’ve never been that good anyway etc. etc. All of the above are entirely incorrect but there is one very notable feature that has caused their diminished number of goals and that was the sale of what is simply the best player in the world – Cristiano Ronaldo. A lot of people said Manchester United relied upon him to win games, which is largely incorrect but he was largely responsible for our excellent goal difference, which is something Manchester United are really missing. United have sold Ronaldo and Tevez and replaced them with an ever-impressive Valencia and a crock – Michael Owen. It’s no coincidence that United aren’t scoring goals when they’ve only got two competent strikers left thus the problem that United are experiencing at the moment. Fergie thinks Owen will save the day but he can’t and won’t so Fergie needs to hope Diouf fits in quickly in January or he looks to buy big in summer or this kind of position could become very common indeed. Manchester United have won five from six home games this season, drawing the other game, and average just over two goals per home game. However, they’re showing signs of struggling to break resolute defensive sides down and that’s exactly what Everton are.
Visitors Everton haven’t enjoyed the best of seasons with their stretched squad taking more injuries than it could cope with and results suffered as a result. However, players are beginning to return to fitness now and Everton are starting to get back to their best. One thing that David Moyes always has and always will do is to make his sides organised and compact. Manchester United have often struggled to overcome the Merseysiders and now that Ronaldo isn’t there to take two men away from their usual jobs of marking another player each, this task is set to become even more difficult.
When you consider that four of the last five games between these two sides in all competitions have gone under 2.5 goals, you have to feel that there’s value on this outcome tonight!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Watford vs Scunthorpe United – home win at 3/4.
Watford have impressed me this season with some good displays and by being one of the top goalscoring sides in the division so far this year. They’ve won three of their last five games and generally look extremely potent regardless of who they’re facing. Watford’s home record isn’t exactly dominating but it’s respectable with just two defeats at home in eight games, winning and drawing three times.
Visitors Scunthorpe United enjoy sending out mixed messages as to how good they actually are with some very convincing results and yet some absolutely atrocious results too. Nobody has conceded more goals on the road than Scunthorpe have in the Championship with an average of 2.5 goals conceded per away game. They’ve lost three games in a row now and have lost six of their away games so far this season. When you consider that Watford are also the better side here, yuo have to feel that this is beginning to look rather one-sided.
All the statistics here favour a home win, as does the actual ability of both sides, so you’d be a fool not to back Watford today!
Verdict: Watford to win at 3/4.
Millwall vs Wycombe Wanderers -1.75 handicap at 13/10.
Millwall will look to pick up where Huddersfield Town left off last week with their 6-0 dem0lition of Wycombe Wanderers. Millwall have worryingly started playing very well lately – worrying for their opponents, that is! Millwall are a very competent side on their day and are more than capable of achieving promotion to the Championship if they put their minds to it. Milwall have won three of their last five games and are unbeaten on this particular run, a run which has seen them climb to seventh in the League One table. Millwall are a real force at home this year as they’re still unbeaten in eight games, winning five times and drawing three times. With an average of just under two goals per game and an average of conceding one goal every two home games, it’s easy to see why Millwall are more than capable of breaking the handicap in this game.
Now, if there’s one side you want your side to be playing against when selecting a handicap bet, it’s the worst side in the division, right? Well, Millwall have certainly hit the jackpot as far as luck goes in this instance as Wycombe Wanderers are rooted to the bottom of the League One table with just one win from sixteen games this season. They’ve lost three of their last five games and a 6-0 humiliation at Huddersfield Town last weekend will have done a lot to dismantle their already demoralised squad ahead of their trip to Millwall. Nobody has conceded more away goals in this division than Wycombe Wanderers as they’ve conceded over 2.5 goals per away game on average.
This looks a straightforward -1.75 handicap win today and should prove profitable!
Verdict: Millwall to win with a -1.75 handicap at 13/10.
Southampton vs Norwich City – away win with draw no bet odds of evens.
Southampton have been remarkably good over the last couple of months, showing signs of why they were a good side in the first place! Their form has been so good that they’ve finally overcome their -10 point start to the season and are on the verge of breaking free of the relegation zone. Southampton’s home form shows them to be a difficult side to play against but not a side that consistently wins their home games which shows that there’s still a lot to do for the financially-troubled south coast side. Despite some good recent form, Southampton are now winless in their last two games, drawing once and losing once, leaving their momentum a little bruised ahead of this tough encounter.
Visitors Norwich City have been a revelation this season since their appalling 7-1 drubbing by Colchester United at the start of the season. Norwich City are arguably playing the best football in League One at the present time and their form reflects this with four wins in their last five games. Nobody has scored more goals than Norwich City in League One this year which is largely why they’re fifth in the table with every chance of climbing even further. Their away form has been somewhat inconclusive but does demonstrate that they’re capable of winning away from home, something they’ve done three times already this season.
Although this should be a close game, I think Norwich City are playing well enough to win this game and they do have a better squad so it looks worthwhile to back them today.
Verdict: Norwich City to win at draw no bet odds of evens.
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Rochdale – home win at 11/10.
Dagenham & Redbridge are the latest side to throw their hat into the ring as they look to pile further misery on Rochdale. The hosts are top of League Two currently and have won three of their last five games. Only Chesterfield have a better home record than Dagenham as today’s hosts have won six out of eight games, drawing the other two games and scoring an average of over 2.5 goals per home game. Dagenham have proven time and time again that they’re good enough to beat the majority of the sides in this division, if not all of them, and their league position finally reflects that.
For visitors Rochdale, their recent form has nose-dived in a big way. Despite an impressive 4-0 win away to Bournemouth a few games ago in League Two, Rochdale have since drawn 3-3 at Luton Town in the FA Cup, lost 2-0 at home to Luton Town in the FA Cup Replay and then lost 3-2 at home to Chesterfield in their League Two clash. Chesterfield are a good side, don’t get me wrong, but they’re one of the worst away sides in League Two currently so this result for high-flying Rochdale simply wasn’t good enough. Rochdale are now facing arguably the best side in the division and will need an awful lot of luck to see this one out.
Verdict: Dagenham & Redbridge to win at 11/10.
Auxerre vs AS Monaco – home win at 5/4.
High-flying Auxerre are still looking phenomenal, somehow, with six straight league wins. Interestingly, Auxerre always win by one goal. What this means is that only the bottom five clubs in Ligue 1 have scored less goals than Auxerre this season, which is bizarre for a side that are third in the Ligue 1 table! However, kudos must be given to Auxerre for this magnificent run after an awful start, particularly as they’ve now made their defence water-tight, which is always useful! Only Girondins de Bordeaux have won more home games than Auxerre this season so Monaco will have their work cut out to get anything here!
AS Monaco always have been and probably always will be an “all or nothing” club. They don’t like to draw; they like to romp home to victory or get torn apart valiantly. Sat just one place behind today’s hosts Auxerre in the Ligue 1 table, Monaco boast the odd away record of three wins and three defeats from six away games. Only Monaco and Valenciennes have failed to draw an away game this season. Monaco are a similar side to Auxerre in that they don’t score or concede many goals either, which tells me that we’re in for a low-scoring game here tonight.
I’m expecting the home advantage to make a difference here tonight and Monaco’s run of two winless games to have dented their momentum significantly, thus allowing a home win in this game.
Verdict: Auxerre to win at 5/4.
Kavala vs AEK Athens – home win at 9/4.
Kavala have surprised a lot of people this season with their dogged displays, myself included, but you simply cannot argue with the league table and the league table shows that they’re fourth – simple as that! Kavala are what I would call the Greek version of English Premier League side Stoke City – they’re physical, they’re strong, they’re even dirty, but they’re always motivated, efficient, and hard to beat. They’ve already won three out of their five home games since promotion and only one side has won here in the Super League this season, which basically means that you need to respect Kavala whilst betting.
Visitors AEK Athens have started to grind out a few results lately and are unbeaten in their last four games. However, their problems are still there off the pitch and their goalscoring problems on the pitch remain fully entact, particularly away from home. AEK Athens have only won once away from home this season, drawing three games and losing just once. This means that the game could conceivably be a draw but I’m counting on Kavala’s physical approach to really do damage to AEK Athens, particularly without giant defender Kyrgiakos amongst their ranks anymore.
It’s a risky call, there’s no doubt about it, but I feel little Kavala have enough to win this game today.
Verdict: Kavala to win at 9/4.
Fehervar vs Gyori ETO FC – home win at 5/6.
I can’t begin to explain how much Fehervar have impressed me in the Soproni Liga this year although I think my respect peaked when they won at Ujpest. They’ve currently six points clear at the top of the league and thoroughly deserve it with ten wins from fourteen games, losing just twice. They’re won four of their last five games so their momentum is strong and they currently boast one of the best home records in the division along with Debreceni VSC – both sides have won five of their six home games and lost once. Fehervar score a lot of goals at home and rarely concede there too – a lethal combination!
Visitors Gyori ETO FC are a very capable side and some of their results this season have illustrated that perfectly. Gyori have been more impressive at home than they have been away from home but they do remain compact when away from home, which has aided their away form considerably. In fact, no side in the Soproni Liga has conceded less away goals than Gyori, which sets up their game today with free-scoring Fehervar very nicely indeed! However, just one win in Gyori’s last four games and two defeats along the way has damaged their momentum and morale, something they could have done with keeping ahead of this difficult game.
Although this should be a close game between two good sides, everything above favours a Fehervar victory.
Verdict: Fehervar to win at 5/6.
Padova vs Empoli – home win at 5/4.
Newly-promoted Padova have caused a real stir this season with some very efficient displays. They’re currently fifth in Serie B and have been beaten just twice in fourteen games. They’ve drawn more games than they’ve won, which is a tad concerning when considering placing a bet on this game, but their ability to score goals without conceding them is unquestionable. Only Cesena have conceded less goals than Padova this season but no side has conceded less than Padova at home. Indeed, only Ancona can even match their phenomenal record at home when it comes to keeping clean sheets. Padova have won four and drawn three of their home games this season and won their last home game against Salernitana to give them some momentum.
Visitors Empoli are a baffling side that are capable of beating the best sides at home but losing to the worst sides away from home. Empoli’s form of late has been patchy, just like Padova’s, but Empoli’s away record is what has largely swayed me into betting on this game. Empoli are yet to win away from home this season, losing four out of six away games. They’re conceded nine goals in those six games and scored just one goal in that time. That record simply isn’t good enough to shatter a resolute Padova defence, in my opinion, so Empoli could have real problems here today.
This should be a dull, dogged, and low-scoring affair but I think the efficiency of Padova will shine through against the woeful away form of Empoli.
Verdict: Padova to win at 5/4.
Triestina vs Cittadella – home win at 9/10.
After a slow start to their Serie B season, Triestina are starting to move up the table rather quickly, something which I largely attribute to their impressive home form. Only Ancona, Lecce, and Empoli have won more home games than Triestina in Serie B this season as the hosts today have won five out of seven home games. Only Empoli and the current top three sides in Serie B have scored more home goals than Triestina too, which is another impressive characteristic of the hosts. They’re unbeaten in their last five games and have won twice during that time, which indicates that they’re adept at stopping sides playing football against them as well as beating them at home.
Visitors Cittadella had a decent start to their campaign until their recent run of five games without a win, a run which has seen them lose twice and draw three times. Cittadella enjoy scoring goals more often than most sides do away from home but they do tend to lose more away games than most other Serie B sides having already notched up four defeats in seven games, winning just once on the road. If Cittadella were more in-form then I’d be more hesitant about this call but frankly Cittadella look like cannon fodder currently.
This should be a relatively close game but Triestina have more than enough to win this game against an out-of-sorts and poor travelling Cittadella side.
Verdict: Triestina to win at 9/10.
Lech Poznan vs Ruch Chorzow – lay Lech Poznan at 5/6.
Although being one of the best three sides in Poland currently, Lech Poznan have done something that their title rivals Wisla and Legia haven’t done; they’ve really struggled to score goals at home. It’s quite bizarre, really, particularly when you consider that no side has scored more away goals than Lech Poznan but it does show that their 4-5-1 system doesn’t work when you’re supposed to be the attacking side. Even the talented Robert Lewandowski can’t carry Lech Poznan all the time, hence their record of scoring just seven goals in five home games. Lech Poznan have won three of those games, drawing once and losing once along the way. They’re unbeaten in their last five games but they’ve drawn more games than they’ve won of late.
Ruch Chorzow have been immense this season and are the only side remaining in the Ekstraklasa to have won every home game. Unfortunately for Ruch, they’re not at home today but nonetheless their away form is decent too, having won three time away from home in seven games, drawing once, and losing the other three games. Their record away from home is very much akin to Lech Poznan’s home record – few goals scored or conceded and generally make nuisances of themselves. Ruch have won four of their last five games, losing just once on that run. They’re a good side with a strong resolve against all their opponents so Lech are really going to have to work hard to take down this high-flying Ruch Chorzow machine currently.
Although I cannot deny that Lech are the better side here, the odds on laying Lech are showing good value when you consider how well Ruch are playing currently and how bare the goals cabinet is for Lech when playing at home.
Verdict: Lay Lech Poznan at 5/6.
Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Belchatow – away win at 6/4.
Lechia Gdansk must be wondering what they’ve done to upset the Gods as their injuries woes continue! This already stretched squad now boasts an injury list of defenders Kawa, Kozans, Mysona, and Nowak – midfielders Kasperkiewicz, Bajic, and most importantly Bak – and Lukjanovs in attack. Lechia are struggling to generate a starting eleven for this game and their form lately has suffered due to their extreme injury issues. They’re a decent side on their day but outside of their day they can get horribly exposed. With their present situation, I can’t help but feel that they’re going to be horribly exposed today too.
GKS Belchatow are a funny side that can play brilliantly for short spells and then not turn up for others. They’ve currently won six games in a row hence their lofty perch of fourth place in the Ekstraklasa and they’ll look to continue their tremendous run against injury-hit Lechia Gdansk today. There’s no doubt that Belchatow are the better of these two sides but whether the real Belchatow turns up or not is another matter entirely! Nonetheless, Belchatow have turned up consistently lately so we have no reason to believe otherwise here, even if their away form this season has been somewhat inconclusive thus far.
I can’t see many goals in this game but Lechia’s injury problems and Belchatow’s momentum should see a very valuable away win here.
Verdict: GKS Belchatow to win at 6/4.
Terek Grozny vs Kuban Krasnodor – home win at evens.
Grozny remains one of the toughest away trips a Russian side can make regardless of which side is travelling there. Today Terek Grozny are hosting Kuban Krasnodor, a side that already don’t travel well but now will surely have their eyes opened by their able hosts. Although Terek have lost four games consecutively now, they always fall back on their home form, which has served them as well as ever this season. Only the top seven sides have won more home games than Terek this season – the other sides around them can’t even match Terek, let alone better their record! More impressively than that, however, is the fact that only Rubin Kazan, Spartak Moscow, and Lokomotiv Moscow have scored more home goals than they have too. Although Terek’s season is all but over they’ll still want to win this game to ensure they’re well away from relegation.
Kuban Krasnodor have already lost eleven out of fourteen away games this season, drawing the other three and generally looking unimpressive. Their blocking style of football simply hasn’t worked away from home and I suspect it’s going to be exposed even more than normal as they start down the barrel of a relegation gun, thus requiring them to travel to Grozny and win to have a chance of survival. As Kuban only just manage an average of scoring a goal every two games on the road, it’s beginning to look increasingly unlikely that they’ll get anything from this game even though they absolutely have to. Lastly, no side has conceded more away goals than Kuban this year as they average conceding four goals per away game, which is absolutely atrocious – real relegation form!
This game should be a walk in the park for Terek against a poor travelling Kuban side that have to attack and will be exposed on the counter-attack often. It may even be worth handicapping the hosts if you feel bold!
Verdict: Terek Grozny to win at evens.
Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow – home win at evens.
I generally steer clear of Russian derbies as best I can but I feel there’s real value in this one today. Spartak Moscow have played some fantastic football this season and absolutely have to win this game to maintain the pressure on league leaders Rubin Kazan. They’ve won four of their last five games and have won ten out of fourteen home games, something that no side can better in the Russian Premier League. Only Rubin Kazan have scored more goals than Spartak Moscow too, which is another useful fact to be aware of, particularly as Spartak Moscow average scoring well over two goals per game at home.
Visitors CSKA Moscow may have wanted revenge for their defeat against Spartak Moscow earlier this season but I can’t help feeling that their focus will be on their UEFA Champions League game approaching as a win in that game gives them a great chance of qualifying from the group. With the Russian season about to end and CSKA Moscow having no chance of obtaining anything from their very disappointing season, a good run in the UEFA Champions League might well be just what they want – and need! CSKA have lost a lot of players this season and they’ve looked very stretched at times. They’re now using their third coach of this season, a season that CSKA will be happy to see the back of.
Although defeat today would hurt CSKA, qualifying for the latter stages of the UEFA Champions League would make the pain considerably less so I feel CSKA will focus on that game instead of this one. Therefore, I feel there’s value in a Spartak Moscow victory today.
Verdict: Spartak Moscow to win at evens.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Atletico Madrid – home win at 11/8.
Tonight’s clash at Riazor sees fifth-placed Deportivo La Coruna entertain struggling Atletico Madrid with every intention of furthering their recent impressive charge that has seen them win three of their last five games. Deportivo have already won three of their five home games this season, drawing once and losing once along the way. They’re not big goalscorers at home but they compensate for this by being ruthlessly efficient with their finishing and by presenting a compact side which opponents really struggle to break down.
Visitors Atletico Madrid have gone from bad to worse with a derby defeat against Real Madrid pouring further misery on a dismal season. They’re still in the relegation zone and it’s not difficult to see why as they’ve conceded more Primera Liga goals than any other side so far this season. Atletico average conceding nearly three goals per away game, which is absolutely atrocious for a club of Atletico’s size. A paltry four goals scored away from home simply won’t help them in their quest to score goals at the hellish Riazor either!
Although Atletico can turn it on, Deportivo are lethal at home and have shown that so far this season so I’m taking the home win here.
Verdict: Deportivo La Coruna to win at 11/8.
Las Palmas vs Castellon – home win at 4/5.
Las Palmas have only lost one of their last four games, winning twice and drawing once in the process. We all know Las Palmas are a capable side but it’s only lately that they’ve been showing it. Naturally their impressive form has been far more evident at home where they’ve won three out of six home games, losing just once and conceding amongst the fewest home goals in the Segunda Liga. Las Palmas enter this game with a good level of momentum and have the ability to win this game with considerable ease.
A trip to the Canary Islands might be most people’s idea of fun but I’m sure it’s the last thing that Castellon want at the moment, particularly when they look at the impressive recent form of Las Palmas! Castellon are firmly rooted to the bottom of the table and deservedly so with an average of two goals conceded per game, three defeats in their last four games, and six defeats in six away games. This side is unrecognisable from the one that pushed for promotion last year and the only way they’re going to escape this division this year is by being relegated to the Segunda B! Castellon’s only saving grace has been their decent home form but it’s pointless for me to point out how useless that is in this game!
This game should be a walk in the park for Las Palmas, to be blunt!
Verdict: Las Palmas to win at 4/5.
Dynamo Kiev vs Shakhtar Donetsk – home win at 11/10.
This match in Kiev sees the two best sides in Ukraine battle it out in what is really a very important game, not only because it’s a derby but because both sides tend to beat everyone else in the league so these games can decide titles! Shakhtar Donetsk don’t have a good record at Dynamo Kiev as they’ve lost their last three Premier League visits here. Dynamo Kiev have already won six out of their seven home games this season, drawing the other game, whilst scoring an average of over three goals per home game. They’re finally beginning to get star midfielder Aliev back to his best, which is highly encouraging for the Kiev-based side as he adds another level to their performances. Dynamo Kiev have won ten out of twelve home games in this campaign, more than any other side in the division, including Shakhtar Donetsk.
The visitors have also made an impressive start to this campaign and are also unbeaten in the league this season, much like today’s hosts are. However, Shakhtar’s dismal record at Kiev will have done some damage to them mentally, if only in a minor fashion – all things count in a derby match. Shakhtar Donetsk have scored just as many goals as Dynamo Kiev this year but have struggled more away from home than today’s hosts have, hence Dynamo Kiev’s claim on first place in the table. Shakhtar have won three of their seven away games but have drawn four, which is a considerable blemish on their form book. The best reasoning I’ve heard for this is that the new pitch style at Shakhtar’s new ground suits their swift football much better than the quagmires that most Ukrainian grounds atypically are. However, Shakhtar will have a very difficult game here today regardless of the pitch and I think they may just lose it.
Shakhtar’s unconvincing away form coupled with their poor run at this ground tells me that a Dynamo win is on the cards here.
Verdict: Dynamo Kiev to win at 11/10.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier:
Andorra U21 vs Faroe Islands U21 (9) -1.75 handicap
Argentinian Primera Division:
Huracan vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (6) 1-1
Atletico Tucuman vs Chacarita Juniors (7) over 2.5 goals
Independiente vs Banfield (8) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory (7) 1-2
North Queensland Fury vs Central Coast Mariners (6) 1-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Sturm Graz vs SV Ried (7) over 2.5 goals
SV Kapfenberg vs Salzburg (8) over 2.5 goals
Wiener Neustadt vs LASK Linz (6) over 2.5 goals
Austria Karnten vs SV Mattersburg (5) 0-0
Austrian Liga 1:
Gratkorn vs Wacker Innsbruck (7) over 2.5 goals
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent vs Standard de Liege (7) 1-1
Club Brugge vs Germinal Beerschot (8) 2-0
Anderlecht vs Roeselare (9) -1.75 handicap
Sint-Truiden vs Cercle Brugge (6) 1-1
Excelsi0r Mouscron vs Charleroi (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Westerlo vs Lokeren (7) 2-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Mons vs Boussu Dour Borinage (7)
Antwerp vs Oostende (7)
Tournai vs Turnhout (6)
Liege vs KVSK United (6)
Dender vs Red Star Waasland (6)
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro (7) 1-2
Atletico Mineiro vs Internacional (6) 1-1
Corinthians vs Nautico (8) 2-0
Bulgarian A PFG:
Botev Plovdiv vs Sportist Svoge (6) 0-0
Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Sliven vs Lokomotiv Mezdra (6) 1-0
Levski Sofia vs Cherno More Varna (6) 2-1
Litex Lovech vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (9) -1.75 handicap
Colombian Futbol Profesional:
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Real Cartagena (8) 2-0
Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin (7) 1-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Inter Zapresic (6) over 2.5 goals
Sibenik vs Medimurje (8) 2-0
Rijeka vs Istra 1961 (7) 2-0
Varteks Varazdin vs Slaven Koprivnica (6) 1-1
Cibalia vs Osijek (7) over 2.5 goals
Hajduk Split vs Croatia Sesvete (9) -1.75 handicap
Cypriot Division 1:
Enosis Neon Paralimni vs Doxa (5) 1-0
APOEL Nicosia vs Anorthosis Famagusta (6) 2-1
Ermis vs A.E.Paphos (6) 1-1
Apollon Limassol vs APEP (9) -1.75 handicap
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Kladno vs Bohemians 1905 (6) 1-0
Pribram vs Slovacko (7) 2-0
Viktoria Plzen vs Bohemians Prague (8) 1-0
Brno vs Ceske Budejovice (8) 2-1
Sparta Prague vs Slovan Liberec (7) 2-1
Jablonec vs Slavia Prague (5) 0-0
Danish Superligaen:
HB Koge vs Nordsjaelland (6) 1-1
Midtylland vs Esbjerg (7) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Espoli Cayambe vs Olmedo Riobamba (5) 1-0
English Premier League:
Liverpool vs Manchester City (6) 1-1
Birmingham City vs Fulham (7) 0-0
Burnley vs Aston Villa (5) 1-1
Chelsea vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (10) -1.75 handicap
Hull City vs West Ham United (6) 1-2
Sunderland vs Arsenal (6) 0-1
Manchester United vs Everton (8) 1-0
English Championship:
Barnsley vs Cardiff City (6) under 2.5 goals
Coventry City vs Crystal Palace (7)
Doncaster Rovers vs Queens Park Rangers (6)
Leicester City vs Plymouth Argyle (7)
Middlesbrough vs Nottingham Forest (6)
Reading vs Blackpool (5) draw no bet
Sheffield United vs Peterborough United (6)
Watford vs Scunthorpe United (8)
West Bromwich Albion vs Bristol City (8) over 2.5 goals
Ipswich Town vs Sheffield Wednesday (6)
English League One:
Brentford vs Walsall (6)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United (7)
Bristol Rovers vs Gillingham (7)
Carlisle United vs Swindon Town (6)
Huddersfield Town vs Hartlepool United (8) over 2.5 goals
Leyton Orient vs Tranmere Rovers (4) draw no bet
Millwall vs Wycombe Wanderers (9) -1.75 handicap
Oldham Athletic vs Colchester United (6)
Southampton vs Norwich City (6) draw no bet
Stockport County vs Exeter City (7)
Yeovil Town vs Charlton Athletic (7)
English League Two:
Barnet vs Port Vale (5)
Bradford City vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Burton Albion vs Hereford United (6)
Chesterfield vs Darlington (9)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Rochdale (7)
Lincoln City vs Grimsby Town (6)
Macclesfield Town vs Bournemouth (6)
Morecambe vs Cheltenham Town (5)
Northampton Town vs Crewe Alexandra (6)
Notts County vs Aldershot Town (8)
Shrewsbury Town vs Bury (5) draw no bet
Torquay United vs Rotherham United (5)
Estonian Meistriliiga Relegation/Promotion Play-Off:
Flora Paide vs Warrior Valga (7) 2-1
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Valenciennes (7) 2-1
Grenoble Foot vs Olympique Lyonnais (8) 0-2
Racing Club Lens vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (6) 1-1
Stade Rennais vs Le Mans (8) 2-0
Auxerre vs AS Monaco (7) 1-0
German Bundesliga:
VFL Wolfsburg vs Nurnberg (8) 2-1
VFB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC Berlin (7) 1-0
Schalke 04 vs Hannover 96 (7) 2-1
Koln vs Hoffenheim (6) 1-2
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (7) 1-0
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen (6) 1-2
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs FSV Mainz 05 (6) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs FSV Frankfurt (8)
Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher (6)
Greek Super League:
Kavala vs AEK Athens (7) 1-0
Xanthi vs Levadiakos (8) 2-1
PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus (8) 1-3
Greek B Ethniki:
Pierikos Katerini vs OFI Crete (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Fehervar vs Gyori ETO FC (7) 2-1
Nyiregyhaza Spartacus vs Zalaegerszegi TE (7) 1-1
Paksi SE vs Szombathelyi Haladas (7) 1-0
MTK Budapest vs Diosgyori VTK (8) 2-0
Vasas Budapest vs Ujpest (6) 1-1
Italian Serie A:
Bologna vs Internazionale (8) 0-2
Fiorentina vs Parma (8) 2-1
Italian Serie B:
Albinoleffe vs Modena (6)
Ascoli vs Ancona (7)
Brescia vs Lecce (7)
Crotone vs Reggina (6)
Gallipoli vs Mantova (5)
Grosseto vs Salernitana (8)
Padova vs Empoli (7)
Sassuolo vs Piacenza (8)
Triestina vs Cittadella (7)
Japanese J-League:
Montedio Yamagata vs Omiya Ardija (6) 1-0
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Jubilo Iwata (8) 2-1
Albirex Niigata vs Kashiwa Reysol (5) 1-1
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka (6) over 2.5 goals
Kyoto Purple Sanga vs Kashima Antlers (5) 0-1
Vissel Kobe vs Yokohama F Marinos (6) 2-1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus (7) 1-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Monterrey vs America (6) 1-1
Puebla vs Cruz Azul (5) 1-2
Dutch Eredivisie:
Roda JC Kerkrade vs AZ Alkmaar (6) 1-1
NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen (8) over 2.5 goals
RKC Waalwijk vs Groningen (5) 1-1
Twente Enschede vs Vitesse Arnhem (9) 2-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia (7) 0-0
Lech Poznan vs Ruch Chorzow (5) 1-1
Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Belchatow (7) 0-1
Slask Wroclaw vs Odra Wodzislaw (7) 2-0
Romanian Liga:
International vs Unirea Urziceni (6) 1-2
Russian Premier League:
Terek Grozny vs Kuban Krasnodor (6) 2-0
Rubin Kazan vs Zenit St. Petersburg (7) over 2.5 goals
Amkar Perm vs Khimki (8) -1.75 handicap
Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Saturn Moscow Oblast vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (7) 2-1
Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Tom Tomsk vs Rostov-na-Donu (6) under 2.5 goals
FK Moscow vs Spartak Nalchik (8) 2-0
Scottish Premier League:
Hearts vs St.Johnstone (6) 1-0
Falkirk vs Hamilton Academicals (7) 1-1
Motherwell vs Aberdeen (6) 2-1
Rangers vs Kilmarnock (9) 2-0
St.Mirren vs Hibernians (6) 0-1
Serbian Super Liga:
Vojvodina Novi Sad vs Borac Cacak (8) 2-0
Javor Ivanjica vs Mladi Radnik (7) 2-1
Hajduk Kula vs OFK Belgrade (6) 0-0
Cukaricki vs Red Star Belgrade (9) 0-2
Partizan Belgrade vs Smederevo (9) -1.75 handicap
BSK Borca vs Metalac GM (6) 1-0
Spartak Subotica vs Napredak (6) 1-0
Jagodina vs Rad Belgrade (8) 2-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Ruzomberok vs MSK Zilina (6) over 2.5 goals
Kosice vs Spartak Trnava (6) 1-1
Tatran Presov vs Nitra (5) 0-0
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Senica (7) 1-1
Dubnica vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (6) 1-2
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Nafta Lendava vs Koper (6) 1-2
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Drava (7) 1-0
Rudar Velenje vs Gorica (6) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Tenerife vs Sevilla CF (8) 0-2
Deportivo La Coruna vs Atletico Madrid (7) 2-1
Real Madrid vs Racing Santander (8) over 2.5 goals
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Barcelona (8) -1.75 handicap, over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Girona vs Cadiz (7)
Levante vs Cordoba (7)
Huesca vs Albacete (8)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (7)
Real Murcia vs Real Union Club de Irun (6)
Las Palmas vs Castellon (8)
Celta de Vigo vs Villarral II (6)
Spanish Segunda B:
Group 1:
Lemona vs Palencia (8)
Group 2:
Puertollano vs Toledo (6)
Group 4:
Jerez Industrial vs Moratalla (5)
Turkish Super Lig:
Gaziantepspor vs Bursaspor (6) 1-1
Besiktas JK vs Fenerbahce (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Ukrainian Premier League:
Dynamo Kiev vs Shakhtar Donetsk (7) 1-0
Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon Kiev (8) under 2.5 goals
Tavriya Simferopol vs Zakarpattya Uzhhorod (8) 2-0
Metalurg Donetsk vs Arsenal Kiev (7) 2-1
Metalist Kharkiv vs Zorya Lugansk (8) -1.75 handicap
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Penarol vs Fenix (8) 2-0
Racing Club Montevideo vs Tacuarembo (8) 2-1
Rampla Juniors vs Atenas (6) 1-0
Welsh Premier League:
Carmarthen Town vs Porthmadog (8) 2-0
Aberystwyth Town vs Newi Cefn Druids (8) 2-0
Airbus vs Newtown (6) 1-1
Caersws vs Connah’s Quay Nomads (7) 0-0
Port Talbot Town vs Bangor City (6) 2-1
Welshpool Town vs Neath Athletic (7) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!