Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club de Bilbao
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Today’s secondary featured game is between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao.
First of all, anyone that refers to the visitors as “Athletico” or “Atletico” will be banned! Do your fucking homework!
Now that mindless rant is out of the way, let’s look at the game itself. Atletico Madrid are on a roll with Simeone steering them to efficient display after efficient display. True, they’ve had to sacrified a lot of their old flair that used to endear them to neutrals all over the world. After all, we all love an entertaining side, don’t we? However, it was about time that Atletico pulled their socks up and actually started to deliver what their name suggested that they should and it’s Simeone that’s started it. Although playmaker Diego is still absent, everyone else is available for the hosts and with Falcao easily one of the best finishers in the Primera Liga, you have to fancy Atletico’s momentum to give him at least a few opportunities to score and I’m positive that he’ll take at least one of them, especially against a lax Athletic defence.
Athletic Bilbao actually play better football than Atletico Madrid but they’ve also played six games more than Atletico Madrid since the turn of the year, thus explaining games where they’ve fallen apart (e.g. their 0-3 loss at weekend). The effort and committment that Bielsa demands from his players is utterly relentless and I’ve no doubt that Bilbao’s talented bunch of kids will drive on to help Athletic succeed here. However, they’re not too well-placed to do so with so many big games being crammed into such a short space of time. It wasn’t even seven days ago that they were facing Manchester United and now they’re facing Atletico Madrid having played Valencia at weekend! Tiredness rarely shows in this team in the usual way but they are looking more vulnerable than ever at the back and I think it’ll show today. Additionally, there’s no natural replacement for suspended right-back Iraola and big hitman Llorente is a doubt for today’s game. Take Llorente out of the equation and Bilbao’s attacking threat is halved. Toquero is a good battler but he is not a good striker – he’s kept the Segunda B part of his finishing whilst adopting a Primera Liga mental approach.
So, yeah – I expect a battling game between two sides with contrasting styles. Atletico Madrid simply look better prepared to win games like this, however. They have more depth than Athletic do and they’re more than capable of taking advantage of Athletic’s defensive situation, especially if Llorente is out as that should limit the goals that Bilbao score. For me, the home win is well worth a bet at 4/5.
Verdict: Atletico Madrid to win at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
Villarreal CF vs Real Madrid – away win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
Molina out; Lotina in. Last throw of the dice for Villarreal as they attempt to beat the drop. Confidence is low at El Madrigal and with the football they’ve been playing, it’s not really a surprise. They’ve had injury problems this season, which didn’t help their start to the season, but doesn’t every side encounter injury problems at some point? Villarreal have dealt with their problems very poorly and still have never really recovered from the departure of Pellegrini as boss. People are quick to forget that Villarreal aren’t a big club. Their stadium is the sixth smallest in the Primera Liga, if my memory serves me correctly. Valencia are the daddies in the eastern side of Spain and Villarreal know it. Although they possess a few good players, Villarreal are not playing well enough for it to show and it’s hard to see that changing today, even with proven fighter Lotina at the helm.
Madrid – well, I’m not sure I need to write a lot about them. They’re absolutely relentless under Mourinho and possess some of the best players in the world. They can’t defend for shit but they’ll bang at least two or three past El Submarino Amarillo tonight if the hosts defend in this game like they have in the preceding weeks. Madrid dropped points at home to Malaga thanks to an amazing free-kick from Villarreal old boy Santi Cazorla. Mourinho’s sides rarely drop points for two games in a row unless there’s something seriously wrong in the camp and I don’t think there is. They’re more than good enough to get their title push back on track in this game and I think they’ll do it in style, too.
With Villarreal floundering and Madrid dominating, I have to favour the away win with a -1.5 handicap at evens.
Verdict: Real Madrid to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Valencia CF vs Real Zaragoza – over 3 goals at evens.
My perspective of Valencia is that they’re bottlers in games like these. I hate backing them in such games because they often let me down, either with their display or their result. They play far better against Barcelona, Real Madrid etc. than they do against smaller sides that will work their backsides off against Valencia. I suppose you could make a case for the hosts having too many “pampered” players in the sense that motivation is rarely the same for these games as they would be for the big games. However, they’re fortunate to have Unai Emery at the helm as he’ll keep things as they should be to the best of his ability and that should be enough to see them take three points off the virtually relegated Zaragoza. Valencia have some superb attacking players and will score goals here; I’ve no doubt about that.
Handicap Valencia, though? Not for me. This is the type of game where they’ll concede one or two goals and Zaragoza are decent enough going forward to make it happen, even without Postiga. Valencia’s defence is embarrassing and Zaragoza’s attack is underestimated because of their dismal run and league placing. Confidence is low in the visitors’ camp so they may well receive a drubbing here, which is no doubt what everyone expects to occur. I do expect Valencia to beat their inferior opponents but I’m not so sure it’ll be convincing; Valencia are rarely convincing at home.
For me, the best way to approach this one is to take goals. Hitman Soldado is in the form of his career after bagging an incredible hat-trick at San Mames and Zaragoza are not good enough to handle him, even with their best defender Lanzaro returning. I think Zaragoza have enough to trouble a bad Valencia defence, though. Therefore, my call is to take over 3 goals at evens.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendlies:
Chile vs Peru (6) 1-0
Jamaica vs Costa Rica (5) 1-1
Copa Libertadores:
The Strongest vs Internacional (5) 2-1
Corinthians vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-0
Vasco da Gama vs Libertad Asuncion (5) 1-2
Asian Champions League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Nagoya Grampus (5) 1-1
Seongnam Ilhwa vs Tianjin Teda (6) 2-1
Kashiwa Reysol vs Jeonbuk Motors (4) 1-1
Guangzhou Evergrande vs Burinam United (8) over 2.5 goals
Persepolis vs Al Shabab (6) 2-1
Al Gharafa vs Al Hilal (5) 1-1
Al Nasr vs Lekhwiya (6) 1-0
Al Ahli vs Sepahan (5) 2-2
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs Wiener Neustadt (7) 1-0
Sturm Graz vs Wacker Innsbruck (7) 1-0
Rapid Vienna vs SV Kapfenberg (4) 0-0
SV Ried vs Admira Wacker (5) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs Lierse SK (6) 1-0
Anderlecht vs Zulte-Waregem (6) 1-0
Racing Genk vs AA Gent (4) 2-2
OH Leuven vs Sint-Truiden (6) 2-1
Lokeren vs Cercle Brugge (7) 2-1
Kortrijk vs Germinal Beerschot (6) over 2.5 goals
Mechelen vs Standard de Liege (5) 0-0
Mons vs Westerlo (4) 2-2
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets (6) 1-1
Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia (5) 1-1
Kaliakra vs Chernomorets Burgas (5) 0-0
Beroe vs Litex Lovech (4) 1-0
Croatian Prva Liga:
Inter Zapresic vs Cibalia Vinkovci (5) 1-1
Split vs Karlovac (6) 2-1
Istra 1961 vs Lucko (7) 1-0
Zadar vs Varteks Varazdin (6) 1-1
Sibenik vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (6) 1-0
Rijeka vs Hajduk Split (5) 1-0
Dinamo Zagreb vs Slaven Koprivnica (7) 2-1
English Premier League:
Manchester City vs Chelsea (4) 1-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs Stoke City (7) 2-1
Everton vs Arsenal (5) 1-1
Queens Park Rangers vs Liverpool (6) 1-1
English Championship:
Ipswich Town vs Burnley (6) over 2.5 goals
Cardiff City vs Coventry City (7)
Blackpool vs Leicester City (6) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Liiga Cup:
FC Honka Espoo vs VPS Vaasa (8) 2-0
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Kuopio (6) 1-0
Jaro Pietarsaari vs Inter Turku (7) 1-2
Macedonian First League:
Teteks Tetovo vs Napredok (6) 1-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
De Graafschap vs Twente Enschede (7) 0-2
Romanian Liga:
Sportul Studentesc vs CFR Cluj (6) 1-1
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Concordia Chiajna (5) 2-1
Universitatea Cluj vs Astra Ploiesti (6) 1-1
Otelul Galati vs Dinamo Bucharest (5) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Mura 05 vs Domzale (6) 1-1
Celje vs Triglav (6) 2-1
Gorica vs Nafta Lendava (5) 1-0
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Maribor (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sporting Gijon vs Real Mallorca (6) 1-0
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (5) 2-1
Valencia CF vs Real Zaragoza (7) 2-1
Real Sociedad vs Levante (7) 2-0
Villarreal CF vs Real Madrid (8) 0-2
Swiss Challenge League:
Wohlen vs SC Kriens (6) over 2.5 goals
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!