Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
FreeToday’s featured game is the Primera Liga game between Atletico Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna. Hosts Atletico Madrid have finally started playing well again in recent times and look a threat once more whereas Deportivo La Coruna have nosedived so we should have an interesting game on our hands tonight.
Hosts Atletico Madrid have won eight out of fourteen home games this season whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game. Atletico Madrid are inept defensively but so are the majority of Spanish sides so it’s not an uncommon thing. Atletico have scored four goals in their last two games as they drew at Valencia mid-week in the UEFA Europa League and were beaten 3-2 by bitter rivals Real Madrid in the Primera Liga. Atletico are certainly back to goalscoring ways and have been strong at home as a result, winning their last four home games in the Primera Liga despite facing giants Barcelona and Valencia and despite hosting gritty Basque sides Osasuna and Athletic Club de Bilbao. Surprisingly, Atletico have only conceded twice during those four games but have scored nine times along the way so they’re finally gaining some kind of consistency, which in itself is bizarre for them, but it makes it easier for me to back them tonight.
What counts against Deportivo La Coruna massively tonight is that they don’t score many goals when they’re at the peak of their form, let alone when they’re out of form, so sides like Atletico tend to have a lot of joy against them. Deportivo have lost their last five visits here consecutively and haven’t won here since 1999 so they don’t like their trips here much at all! Deportivo’s tactics on the road are purely to stop opponents scoring goals as they struggle to score enough themselves to counter their respective opponents – an average of less than a goal per away game – but they’ve failed in defence too of late which must surely concern them. Deportivo are now without a win in four games, losing their last three games consecutively. They’ve only lost one of those games away from home but they’ve concerningly lost two home games against sides that they should be drawing against at the very least so morale is low as a result. Deportivo have conceded eight goals in their past four games – two goals per game on average – which is an unthinkable record for a defensively strong side. Deportivo are getting their token goals still but don’t have the momentum or morale to trouble Atletico tonight, in my opinion.
No side has an easy game against Deportivo but with Atletico scoring so many goals and Deportivo leaking so easily, you have to feel that there’s value in the home win tonight.
Verdict: Atletico Madrid to win at 4/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Boca Juniors vs Rosario Central – lay Boca Juniors at evens.
Hosts Boca Juniors are in a bizarre place currently. They’re the third highest goalscoring side in the Primera Division but they’re third from bottom in the Primera Division too as they’re the biggest conceding side in the division. However, both of those scoring records are applicable largely to their away form; their home form is somewhat presentable. However, Boca have only won twice in five home games this season despite their measured goal difference so they haven’t exactly started their season the way they wanted to! Boca have only won once in their last five games whilst losing three times and that victory was against bitter rivals River Plate so I’d suggest that motivation is an issue for Boca currently. They’ve lost at home to Racing Club Avellaneda during those five games and their most recent match was an embarassing 4-1 defeat at Chacarita Juniors so Boca are hardly the epitome of composure currently.
Visitors Rosario Central are also having a puzzling campaign although theirs is easier to comprehend as they just don’t score goals. Rosario have only conceded seven times in six away games which is a presentable record, particularly when you consider that they’re second from bottom in the Primera Division. However, scoring just twice on the road during that time is the reason that their record isn’t improving. That said, Rosario have only lost twice in their six away games as they tend to draw their games or take a beating; they clearly don’t believe in the “grey” patch of form. Rosario have lost their last two games consecutively so their form has to be a concern to them. However, they’re resolute and defend solidly away from home so I’ll give them their chances here.
All in all, Boca Juniors are too short for this game. They’re not playing particularly well and they’re rarely winning games so why they’re 4/6 is beyond me. Boca haven’t beaten Rosario at home in three out of their last four attempts so the odds on laying the hosts tonight might just be something of a gift.
Verdict: Lay Boca Juniors at evens.
Lanus vs River Plate – home win at 6/5.
Hosts Lanus are finally starting to rebuild their Clausura campaign with two consecutive wins. They’re adopting the “Argentinos Juniors” approach of winning games 1-0 so backing them is a tad precarious against potent sides. However, that shouldn’t be an issue tonight as one thing that River Plate cannot do is score goals currently.
Lanus drew their last game mid-week in Paraguay against Libertad Asuncion. This might not seem like a particularly impressive result but it is when you consider that they trailed from the third minute after ex-River Plate defender Pedro Sarabia put Libertad ahead. Then Lanus had their star striker Silva dismissed on the half-hour mark and despite battling against those two factors, Lanus scored a late goal to equalise and were arguably unlucky not to win the game. What this shows is determination, committment, and even belief – three things that Lanus had been lacking this season. However, they’re now unbeaten in four games in all competitions, winning three times and drawing once, so Lanus have some strong momentum behind them currently. Lanus have already won three out of five home games this season and have only lost once so they’re rapidly establishing themselves as a strong home side yet again so I’m happy to back them tonight.
Visitors River Plate just don’t appear to be able to fight their way out of their current predicament. Only San Lorenzo de Almagro, Rosario Central, and Atletico Tucuman respectively have scored less goals than they have this season which explains why they’re languishing near the bottom of the table. They’ve already lost three out of five away games in the Primera Division and don’t even manage to score a goal per away game on average so falling behind in away games tends to be fatal for the fallen giants. River Plate haven’t scored in three out of their last four games and have lost two consecutve away games without scoring a goal. River Plate are simply a very goal-shy side and are finding only a single goal an impossible obstacle to overcome so look likely to struggle tonight against Lanus as they do against most sides currently.
Lanus may only be winning games 1-0 but they are still scoring and they’re strong at home so they should have too much for goal-shy River Plate at very generous odds.
Verdict: Lanus to win at 6/5.
CSKA Sofia vs Montana – lay CSKA Sofia at 11/4.
This is definitely a risky call but I couldn’t resist with CSKA Sofia at 1/5 for some bizarre reason!
First of all, CSKA Sofia are better than Montana – a lot better. However, as we all know in football, that is not the be all and end all. CSKA have only won once in their last six games and have only scored once during their last four games. CSKA have been humiliated at Lokomotiv Mezdra and have drawn at home to Pirin Blagoevgrad in recent times so they’re really not playing their best at all. I don’t think anyone is in a position to doubt CSKA’s actual level of abiliy but their performances of late and their lack of goals scored leaves me with doubts regarding them beating anyone at the moment, even little Montana!
Montana are a pretty damn poor side and I think I’m being generous with that description. They simply don’t score goals, which is naturally a handicap for a side that…well, has to score goals! Montana are without a win in four consecutive games and have only scored once during that time but have only lost twice so they’re a fairly capable side defensively. This is also reflected in their overall away form as they’ve lost just four games in ten away games this season. Montana don’t score many but don’t concede many so could prove to be a real thorn in the side of CSKA today.
We all know CSKA are the better side here but they’re unbelievably short to win this game. Montana are a capable enough side to grind out a 0-0 draw so I think laying CSKA at oustanding odds is a potentially good call today.
Verdict: Lay CSKA Sofia at 11/4.
Liga de Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil – home win at 10/11.
These odds are surprising – we should be seeing at least 4/6 here! I can only imagine the bookies are reading too much into the current form of Barcelona Guayaquil because Liga de Quito are the best side in Ecuador currently!
Both of these sides have made a great start to their respective Primera A campaigns and both occupy the top two places in the table as a result. Liga de Quito have been cutting at home so far this season with three wins and one draw in four home games, scoring ten times and conceding just once. Barcelona have done well on the road with two wins, one draw, and just one defeat in their four away games. Barcelona were crushed at bitter rivals Emelec recently in their only defeat of the season but that left them looking somewhat unconvincing in their away win against Espoli Cayambe. That uncertainty, if shown tonight, will be exploited by a rampant and experienced Liga de Quito, which is ultimately what I expect to happen.
Look, there’s basically a damn good reason that Liga de Quito have won five consecutive home games against Barcelona Guayaquil and it’s because they’re better than them. Liga de Quito are as strong as ever at home so why the bookies have under-priced Liga de Quito tonight is beyond me.
Verdict: Liga de Quito to win at 10/11.
Birmingham City vs Liverpool – lay Liverpool at 10/11.
There’s no secret to this one – Birmingham are simply bloody hard to play against at home. They’ve avoided defeat at home to Chelsea, Arsenal, and Manchester United respectively this season so why they can’t against an inferior Liverpool is beyond me. Birmingham have only lost two home games in the Premier League this season and that record should be kept entact against Liverpool today as the hosts will be looking to their tough game at home to SL Benfica in the UEFA Europa League next week. Liverpool have only won four out of sixteen away games in the Premier League this season and have the lowest goalscoring record on the road out of the whole of the top nine in the Premier League. Liverpool haven’t won in their last six away games and have only scored twice during that run so it’s easy to see why they don’t do very well! They’re up against a rock-solid Birmingham defence today and I just can’t see them breaching it so laying them at evens looks a good bet to me.
Verdict: Lay Liverpool at 10/11.
Auxerre vs Paris Saint-Germain – home win at 21/20.
Auxerre have had a sensational campaign and I’m still not really sure why! I suppose you could loosely classify them as one of the best “teams” in France in the sense that they work hard for each other and perform very efficiently. However, far be it from me to decide which sides carry the most momentum so I’ll happily follow Auxerre for this one today! They’ve already won ten out of fifteen home games in Ligue 1 and boast one of the best defensive records in the division, which is basically the stability behind their success. Auxerre have won their last four home games consecutively and look likely to extend that run today with the proviso that their reliable defence turns up as usual!
Visitors Paris Saint-Germain have had a disappointing campaign in comparison to their good campaign last season, finding themselves closer to the drop zone than the European places this season. They’ve been particularly disappointing away from home with eight defeats in fifteen away games in Ligue 1. They don’t concede excessively but they do concede more than they score, hence their problems. PSG haven’t won in their last seven away games in Ligue 1, losing five times along the way. PSG have only scored once in their last three away game so should struggle to a substantial level against Auxerre today.
Although this has the hallmarks of being one of the most droll games ever – along with the rest of Auxerre’s games – you still have to feel that the home win has value in it today for a robotic Auxerre to dismantle a disappointing Paris Saint-Germain.
Verdict: Auxerre to win at 21/20.
VFL Wolfsburg vs Hoffenheim – home win at 5/6.
Why aren’t Wolfsburg 4/6 for this game? Do the bookies still think that Hoffenheim are a legitimate title threat or something?!
Wolfsburg lost mid-week at Fulham in the UEFA Europa League, which will have disappointed them as they largely contained Fulham rather well but they scored an away goal so they won’t be too disheartened. They’ve won four out of their last five Bundesliga games and have scored twelve times along the way – an average of over two goals scored per game. Aside from a bizarre 5-1 humiliation at home by Hertha HSC Berlin, Wolfsburg have been unusually astute defensively, conceding just once in their four wins. However, it’d be foolish to state anything but the fact that Wolfsburg are playing well at the moment and are scoring goals for fun. We all know that they’re better than their Bundesliga placing suggests and I expect that to show today.
Hoffenheim aren’t a bad side. In fact, they’re quite a well-organised side but don’t score many goals due to “second season syndrome”, as I call it. Basically, the new sides that make an impact in their first season get “found out” in their second season and that is what has happened to Hoffenheim. They’re without a win in their last four games, drawing twice and losing twice. They’ve already lost seven out of fourteen away games this season but do manage to hold their own sometimes with some rigid defending. Their goalscoring tends to take a backseat but their defensive ability tends to be enough for them to take points off some sides. However, Hoffenheim today face one of the most potent sides in the Bundesliga currently and I expect them to know it by the final whistle too. Hoffenheim have scored just once in their last four games and despite conceding just three times along the way, it’s easy to see why they’re not doing very well currently.
I think Hoffenheim’s solid defence will get a proper test from a potent Wolfsburg today and I expect the hosts to break through at somepoint and ultimately take three points as I have no faith whatsoever in Hoffenheim’s limited attack.
Verdict: VFL Wolfsburg to win at 5/6.
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Fehervar – home win at 11/5.
ZTE have been superb of late with no defeats since returning from the winter break, winning four out of six games in all competitions and drawing the other two. ZTE have won their last three Soproni Liga games consecutively, including a 4-1 demolition of giants Debreceni VSC in their last home game, so ZTE are on top of the world currently! ZTE are a strong home side as it is with seven wins in ten games so their momentum will only further their home strength. They’re the top goalscorers in the division when playing at home with an average of over two goals being scored per home game so they should be a big threat today.
League leaders Fehervar have been strong on the road this season with six wins in ten games. However, it’s their goalscoring ability which has taken them to those dizzying heights as their away record tends to mask the fact that they concede a lot of goals on the road for a big side – 1.5 goals per away game on average, in fact. However, Fehervar are currently in something of a burn out with goals being hard to come by. They started promisingly following their return from the winter break but have only scored twice in their last three away games so are starting to falter. They’ve only won one of those games, drawing the other two, so a solid home side could break through their leaky defence and expose their lack of potency. Fehervar have only won once in their last four games in all competitions so they’re certainly starting to struggle, which was inevitable as they’re not as strong in-depth as their fellow title challengers Debreceni VSC.
Fehervar are still a good and very capable side but they’re looking rather tired of late due to competing on various fronts. ZTE look to have been given a new lease of life of late and will no doubt use it against Fehervar today. We should see a great game between two well-matched sides but I think the odds for the home win are beyond generous so it’s worth a punt on ZTE to win today!
Verdict: Zalegerszegi TE to win at 11/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Cherno More Varna, Beroe, Real Cartagena, Boyaca Chico, Everton, Hamburger SV, Suduva Marijampole, Santos Laguna, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, PSV Eindhoven, De Graafschap, Terek Grozny, Real Madrid, Eskisehirspor, Penarol.
Recommended bets:
Atletico Madrid, Everton, Terek Grozny, and AFC Ajax Amsterdam at 5/1.
Auxerre, PSV Eindhoven, Beroe, and Hamburger SV at 6/1.
VFL Wolfsburg, Real Madrid, Eskisehirspor, and Cherno More Varna at 5/1.
Estudiantes De La Plata, Lanus, Real Cartagena, and Boyaca Chico at 9/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Banfield (8) 1-0
Boca Juniors vs Rosario Central (6) 1-1
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Velez Sarsfield (5) 0-0
Lanus vs River Plate (7) 2-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wiener Neustadt vs Austria Vienna (6) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs Standard de Liege (6) 1-0
Bulgarian A PFG:
Cherno More Varna vs Sportist Svoge (9) 2-0
CSKA Sofia vs Montana (4) 0-0
Beroe vs Lokomotiv Mezdra (8) 2-0
Colombian Primera A:
Boyaca Chico vs Deportes Quindio (8) 2-0
Atletico Huila vs Deportivo Cali (7) 1-1
Cortulua vs Deportes Tolima (6) 0-1
Real Cartagena vs La Equidad Bogota (8) 2-1
Envigado vs Deportivo Pereira (5) 1-1
Once Caldas Manizales vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (4) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Bohemians Prague vs Kladno (5) 1-0
Ceske Budejovice vs Marila Pribram (6) 0-0
Danish Superligaen:
AGF Aarhus vs Randers (5) 1-1
HB Koge vs Brondby (6) 0-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Liga de Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil (8) 1-0
English Premier League:
Birmingham City vs Liverpool (7) 1-1
Fulham vs Wigan Athletic (7) 2-1
Everton vs West Ham United (8) 2-0
French Ligue 1:
Olympique de Marseille vs Racing Club Lens (8) 2-1
Boulogne vs Toulouse (6) 0-0
Auxerre vs Paris Saint-Germain (8) 2-0
German Bundesliga:
VFL Wolfsburg vs Hoffenheim (7) 2-1
Hamburger SV vs Hannover 96 (8) 2-0
German Bundesliga 2:
1860 Munich vs Energie Cottbus (7)
Hansa Rostock vs Alemannia Aachen (5)
Augsburg vs Greuther Furth (7)
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Kaiserslautern (4)
Arminia Bielefeld vs FSV Frankfurt (7)
Koblenz vs Paderborn (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Fehervar (6) over 2.5 goals
Japanese J-League:
Vegalta Sendai vs Kashima Antlers (7) 0-1
Jubilo Iwata vs Gamba Osaka (4) 1-2
Kawasaki Frontale vs Tokyo (6) 2-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Suduva Marijampole vs Zalgiris Vilnius (8) 2-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs Estudiantes Tecos (7) 2-1
Santos Laguna vs Jaguares (8) 2-0
Guadalajara vs America (6) 2-1
Dutch Eredivise:
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs NAC Breda (6) 2-1
ADO Den Haag vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (10) -1.75 handicap
Heracles Almelo vs NEC Nijmegen (7) 1-0
Willem II vs PSV Eindhoven (8) 0-2
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
De Graafschap vs Go Ahead Eagles (8) over 2.5 goals
Russian Premier League:
Tom Tomsk vs Spartak Moscow (6) 1-2
Terek Grozny vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (8) 2-0
Saturn Moscow Oblast vs Rubin Kazan (7) 0-1
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Scottish Premier League:
Hibs vs Celtic (6) 1-2
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen (5) 1-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Nitra vs Ruzomberok (6) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Valladolid vs Villarreal (6) 0-1
Sporting Gijon vs Deportivo Xerez (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Getafe vs Espanyol (5) 1-1
Almeria vs Real Mallorca (6) 2-1
Valencia vs Osasuna (7) under 2.5 goals
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid (8) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna (8) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Sociedad vs Hercules Alicante (6)
Girona vs Salamanca (7)
Cadiz vs Castellon (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Manisaspor vs Genclerbirligi (6) 1-1
Diyarbakirspor vs Gaziantepspor (7) 1-1
Eskisehirspor vs Kasimpasa (8) 2-0
Fenerbahce vs Kayserispor (7) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Arsenal Kiev vs Metalurg Zaporizhya (6) 2-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Central Espanol vs Atenas (6) 2-1
Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro Largo (6) 1-1
River Plate Montevideo vs Tacuarembo (7) 1-0
Penarol vs Cerrito (9) -1.75 handicap
Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo (6) 2-2
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Yaracuyanos vs Caracas (6) 0-1
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Welshpool Town (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!