Atletico Madrid vs Granada
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Primera Liga game in Madrid between Atletico Madrid and Granada.
Atletico Madrid have been something of a relevation ever since Diego Simeone took over. Somehow, the Argentinian boss has brought organisation and determination to a side that could barely hold a defensive line previously. I cannot praise him enough for doing that because so many have tried and failed at what is essentially a very impatient club.
Atletico have really had to lean on their stars this season because if we approach their squad realistically, we have to observe that it’s not their best side by any stretch of the imagination. Fortunately, Colombian striker Falcao is one of the most natural finishers in the world right now and if they give him the chances then he will score the goals – it’s as simple as that. Salvio is filling the void left by the continued absence of Diego rather well and given that Atletico have developed a strong bond that allows them to deal without the likes of Arda Turan, for example, you have to expect them to produce yet another strong display here.
Helpfully, Granada are missing more players than I care to mention for this game and that does not bode well as they’re one of the worst sides in the Spanish top flight when it comes to away games. Goalkeeper Roberto is out. Defenders Diakhate and Siqueira are out. Midfielders Fran Rico, Dani Benitez, and Hassan Yebda are out. Forward Jara is out. Need I continue? There are so many players out for the visitors that them taking anything from this game would astound me, especially given their recent ineffectual displays.
For me, taking Atletico to beat the -1.5 handicap has to be worth a punt at evens as I don’t see Granada having any response for what Atletico will throw at them.
Verdict: Atletico Madrid to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Swansea City vs Manchester City – home win with +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
I think we can all appreciate that Manchester City have a better squad at their disposal than Swansea City – that’s a no-brainer, really. However, what most people don’t appreciate is that Swansea play better football than Manchester City. In fact, I’d argue the case that the only side to play better football than Swansea in the English Premier League is Arsenal.
Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll beat everyone but Arsenal as that’d just be pure bullshit. No, what I am trying to say is that Swansea are very, very good on the ball, much moreso than the odds suggest. This side is not easy to beat, especially at home. They’re very well-organised and they’re absolutely amazing when it comes to passing in triangles around the field. Again, my crib would be that their attack lacks a good striker. It’s been said to me before that Graham has done well for Swansea this season and I would totally agree with that. However, I would point out that a better striker would have seen Swansea obtain more points this season than they’ve got, in my view, hence my slight criticism. Nonetheless, I’ve got a lot of time for The Swans and their excellent manager, especially as he was the only one smart enough to sign Icelandic attacking midfielder Sigurdsson (albeit on loan) in the January transfer window as he demonstrated enough times in the Championship that he was going to be a very good player. He’s strengthened a strong Swansea midfield and that helps Rodgers a lot.
At home, Swansea have only been outplayed once this season in their unusual game with Norwich City. They’ve lost here against Manchester United in a game that they dominated but conceded due to a horrible defensive error. They outplayed Spurs here and outplayed Arsenal here so why should Manchester City be an exception?
Manchester City were smart enough to rest Toure etc. for the mid-week game in Portugal and their toothless display in Lisbon was testament as to how much the likes of the big Ivorian are missed. They were a little daft to play David Silva, in my view, but Balotelli got a rest and that’s important as he’s rapidly becoming instrumental to their plans despite his temperamental nature.
Quality-wise, Man City have more than enough to win this game. The trip to Swansea just isn’t a normal one, though, and I can’t fully explain how that works – that’s just how it is. Swansea are so strong at home that I fancy even the league leaders to really struggle here, just as all the other sides before them have. Try as they might, Man City cannot shake Man Utd off at the top of the table and that has to be on their minds, especially with a much harder run to come than their bitter rivals. Man City will have to work hard and play to their absolute best to get a positive result, in my view, because their hosts are as consistent as can be on their own turf and they’re not easy to beat.
I won’t rule Man City out from winning this game as they’ve got enough match-winners to manage it. However, giving Swansea a +1 Asian handicap looks a steal at 5/6 as it’d be a one-in-a-hundred display that would see the tip lose here, in my view.
Verdict: Swansea City to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Novara vs Udinese – away win at 10/11.
What more can I write other than “quality gap” here? Novara have their artificial turf advantage, as ever, but they aren’t good enough to play in Serie A and it shows. Udinese are not a prolific side but they’ve got more than enough strength and organisation to take the lead here and they’re masters at holding leads so for me, Udinese are well worth a bet at 10/11.
Verdict: Udinese to win at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
Brisbane Roar, CSKA Sofia, Levski Sofia, Manchester United, Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan, Rapid Bucharest, Zenit St.Petersburg, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Banfield vs Tigre (5) 0-0
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Arsenal de Sarandi (5) 2-1
Atletico Rafaela vs Union de Santa Fe (6) 1-0
Boca Juniors vs Independiente (7) 1-0
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United (8) 2-0
Perth Glory vs Central Coast Mariners (5) 1-2
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna vs Admira Wacker (6) 1-0
Bulgarian A PFG:
CSKA Sofia vs Kaliakra (8) 2-0
Montana vs Levski Sofia (8) 1-2
Slavia Sofia vs Minior Pernik (4) 1-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers (6) 2-1
O’Higgins vs Universidad Catolica (5) 1-1
Cobresal vs Deportes Iquique (5) 2-1
Colo Colo vs La Serena (7) over 2.5 goals
Colombian Primera A:
Patriotas vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) 0-0
Real Cartagena vs Deportes Tolima (5) 2-1
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Independiente Medellin (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Croatian Prva Liga:
Osijek vs Cibalia Vinkovci (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Cypriot Division 1:
Apollon Limassol vs Aris Limassol (4) 2-2
AEK Larnaca vs Anorthosis Famagusta (6) 0-0
Ethnikos Achnas vs Alki Larnaca (6) 2-1
Olympiakos Nicosia vs AEL Limassol (5) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Viktoria Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc (7) 2-1
Hradec Kralove vs Dukla Prague (5) 1-1
Slavia Prague vs Jablonec (4) 0-1
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK vs Lyngby (5) 2-1
Silkeborg vs HB Koge (6) 1-0
FC Copenhagen vs SonderjyskE (7) 2-1
Brondby vs AGF Aarhus (5) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Cuenca vs Deportivo Quito (5) 1-2
Tecnico Universitario vs Liga de Quito (7) 0-1
El Nacional Quito vs Olmedo Riobamba (6) 1-0
English Premier League:
Manchester United vs West Bromwich Albion (8) 2-0
Swansea City vs Manchester City (4) 1-1
Norwich City vs Wigan Athletic (7) 2-0
English Championship:
Middlesbrough vs Leeds United (5)
French Ligue 1:
Dijon FCO vs Paris Saint-Germain (8) 0-2
Stade Rennais vs Auxerre (5) 0-0
Montpellier HSC vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (7) 2-0
German Bundesliga:
Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96 (4) 1-1
Schalke 04 vs Hamburger SV (7) 2-1
Greek Super League:
PAS Giannina vs Levadiakos (6) 2-1
Kerkyra vs Xanthi (5) 1-0
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Salonika (7) 1-0
Panaitolikos vs Ergotelis (6) 1-0
AEK Athens vs Panathinaikos (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Pecsi MFC vs Ferencvaros (5) 2-1
Diosgyori VTK vs Fehervar (6) 2-1
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa (6) 1-0
Italian Serie A:
Catania vs Fiorentina (7) 2-0
Genoa vs Juventus (6) 1-1
AC Milan vs Lecce (8) over 2.5 goals
Atalanta Bergamo vs Parma (6) 1-0
Cesena vs Siena (5) 1-1
Lazio vs Bologna (4) 1-1
Novara vs Udinese (7) 0-2
Japanese J-League:
Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F.Marinos (5) 2-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Suduva Marijampole vs Ekranas Panevezys (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Dainava vs Vilnius (6) 2-1
Macedonian First League:
Vardar Skopje vs Teteks Tetovo (7) 2-0
Bregalnica Stip vs Shkendija 79 (6) 1-2
Silekts Kratovo vs Metalurg Skopje (7) 0-1
Ohrid vs Horizont Turnovo (5) 0-0
Renova Dzepciste vs 11 Oktomvri (7) 2-0
Napredok vs Rabotnicki Skopje (7) 0-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Pumas UNAM vs Estudiantes Tecos (7) 2-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven (5) 2-2
NEC Nijmegen vs Twente Enschede (5) 1-2
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs FC Utrecht (7) over 2.5 goals
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs RKC Waalwijk (5) 1-1
De Graafschap vs AZ Alkmaar (6) 1-2
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Rubio Nu vs Deportivo Carapegua (7) 1-0
Independiente FBC vs Cerro Porteno PF (6) 2-1
Tacuary vs Sol de America (6) 1-0
Peruvian Primera Division:
Melgar FBC vs Union Comercio (6) 1-0
Cienciano vs Leon de Huanuco (7) 2-1
Inti Gas vs Real Atletico Garcilaso (4) 1-1
Sport Huancayo vs Universidad Cesar Vallejo (7) 2-1
Alianza Lima vs Universidad San Martin (7) 1-0
Jose Galvez vs Sport Boys (6) 2-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Widzew Lodz vs GKS Belchatow (5) 1-0
Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce (7) 2-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Olhanense vs CD Nacional de Madeira (5) 1-1
Rio Ave vs Vitoria Setubal (6) 1-0
Beira-Mar vs Gil Vicente (4) 1-1
Pacos de Ferreira vs SL Benfica (7) 0-1
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Vitoria Guimaraes (6) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
Sportul Studentesc vs FC Brasov (5) 0-0
Targu Mures vs Vointa Sibiu (7) 2-0
Rapid Bucharest vs Petrolul Ploiesti (8) 2-0
Russian Premier League:
Rubin Kazan’ vs Lokomotiv Moscow (6) 1-1
Rostov-na-Donu vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (6) 1-0
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Kuban’ Krasnodar (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Geylang United vs Home United (7) 1-2
DPMM FC vs Albirex Niigata (7) 2-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Kosice vs Slovan Bratislava (6) 1-2
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Mura 05 vs Triglav (6) 1-0
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Rudar Velenje (7) 2-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid vs Granada (8) 2-0
Espanyol vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (4) 0-1
Valencia CF vs Real Mallorca (7) 2-1
Racing Santander vs Barcelona (8) -1.5 handicap
Osasuna vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Elche vs Real Valladolid (6)
Alcoyano vs Cartagena (5)
Swiss Super League:
Lausanne Sports vs FC Zurich (4) 1-1
Servette vs Luzern (6) 1-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Chiasso vs Delemont (6)
Wil vs Bellinzona (7)
Bruhl vs Lugano (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Samsunspor vs Gaziantepspor (5) 2-1
Manisaspor vs Mersin Idmanyurdu (5) 0-1
Karabukspor vs Antalyaspor (6) 1-0
Orduspor vs Besiktas JK (5) 2-2
Eskisehirspor vs Bursaspor (6) 1-2
Ukrainian Premier League:
Metalurg Donetsk vs Metalist Kharkiv (6) 0-1
Karpaty Lviv vs Tavriya Simferopol (6) 2-1
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Dynamo Kiev (7) 0-1
Arsenal Kiev vs Zorya Lugansk (6) 2-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Bella Vista vs Liverpool Montevideo (5) 1-1
River Plate Montevideo vs Montevideo Wanderers (7) 2-0
Cerro Largo vs Fenix (6) 2-1
Danubio vs Rampla Juniors (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!