Atvidaberg vs GIF Sundsvall
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Superettan encounter between promotion hopefuls Atvidaberg and mid-table dwellers GIF Sundsvall.
Atvidaberg enter this game on the back of a reasonably surprising 3-2 defeat at Landskrona BoIS so they need to pick themselves up rapidly. It’s not so surprising to see anyone lose against a good attacking side like Landskrona but it is surprising to see it because Landskrona’s defence is pretty damn poor and they subsequently find it hard to outscore sides. Nonetheless, Atvidaberg love their home games, hence four wins, one draw, and just one loss in six Superettan home games this season. They’ve bagged fourteen goals in their last four home games, which is an average of over three goals per home game. Atvidaberg truly demonstrated their promotion credentials on their own turf and I expect to see that from them again today. Additionally, Atvidaberg welcome back Radetinac and Moller from suspension and considering that Radetinac is their best midfielder and Moller has notched up a few goals for the hosts already this season, I think it makes the hosts considerably stronger and given that they’re definitely amongst the top three sides in the Superettan, I really fancy their chances here.
I don’t tend to go against GIF Sundsvall because they’re not as bad as their league placing suggests. It’s not so long ago now that they were an Allsvenskan side and all that prevents them from becoming one again is consistent firepower and consistency in general. They’re still quite assured at the back and you’ll rarely see them destroyed by anyone in this division. However, they’ve been painfully bad in front of goal this season away from home with only newly-promoted, rock-bottom Qviding Goteborg having scored less goals on the road than they have. GIF go very defensive on the road and although that’s worked for the majority of their current Superettan campaign, they’ve not really faced the kind of test that Atvidaberg should deliver today so I think we’ll see GIF penetrated today. They’ve still got some decent players ala Skulason, Wallerstedt, Alander etc. but they’re not the side that they were.
For me, there’s a bigger quality gap than the odds suggest. It’s not impossible that GIF “do a job” on Atvidaberg by keeping them out but I find the chances very slim based on how strong and varied Atvidaberg’s attack is, especially with Bosnia-Herzegovina midfielder Radetinac back in action. For me, the home win should be no longer than 3/4 so there’s value in the home win at 4/5.
Team news – Atvidaberg miss Johansson.
Verdict: Atvidaberg to win at 4/5.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Kalmar FF vs GAIS Goteborg – home win at 9/10.
I can usually explain why some sides are particularly strong at home and weak away but Kalmar are a side that I can’t really explain. They don’t have different turf to most sides and they’re not based light years from everyone else so it’s a mystery to me why there’s such a contrast between their displays at home and their displays away.
Nonetheless, I’m happy to attempt to capitalise on that today. Kalmar losing at Malmo was a surprise to some people but not to me; Malmo are one of the top two sides in Sweden, irrespective of their boss or the sale of Molins, so a defeat is always possible. Let’s not forget that Kalmar are not as strong nowadays as they were when they had the Elm trio. Kalmar tend to focus on Brazilian imports rather than local talent nowadays and that does work with Ricardo Santos and Daniel Mendes forging a lethal partnership in attack, especially with winger Daniel Sobralense providing good support. We’ve not seen much of emerging starlet Bertilsson this season, which has affected Kalmar. Nonetheless, Kalmar are very efficient on their own turf, usually defending solidly and edging games 1-0 or 2-0, hence five wins from six home games in the Allsvenskan. They’re missing defender Thorbjornsson for this game, unfortunately, but they’re still a strong unit and I rate Kalmar and their support at home so I’ll take a chance for this one.
Visitosrs GAIS Goteborg have really saved their campaign by managing to re-acquire Wanderson on loan for the season as he’s simply one of the best players in Sweden. With Alvaro Santos up front, GAIS have a dangerous duo in that Brazilian twosome and it pays not to underestimate them, as fairly average as the vast majority of the remainder of GAIS Goteborg’s team actually is. It’ll be interesting to see how well Omotoyossi does when he’s back to full match fitness and scoring goals again as he was lethal with Helsingborg are a few years ago. GAIS really do have a strong attack but their defence and midfield can be broken through by the better sides in the division and that’s what I expect today, especially with English defender Angus absent for the visitors. Bolivian midfielder Ayarna is always a danger in midfield, admittedly, but GAIS rely too heavily on their stars whereas a team like Kalmar functions much better as a unit so I fancy a home win here.
GAIS have scored in five out of their six Allsvenskan away games this season so Kalmar need to be on their game to do well here. However, the fact that they’ve shipped six goals in their last three away games tells a story by itself and that explains why GAIS Goteborg are not the overall force that a potent attack like theirs merits being part of. I anticipate a fairly close game scoreline-wise but Kalmar’s “magic” factor should prove decisive here and thus I like 9/10 on the home win.
Team news – Kalmar FF miss Smylie, Dragusha, and Thorbjornsson whereas GAIS Goteborg miss Angus.
Verdict: Kalmar FF to win at 9/10.
Orebro vs Djurgarden – home win at 4/5.
Orebro are a tough side to face on their artificial turf at Behrn Arena and they’ve demonstrated it a lot over the past couple of years. They’ve won three consecutive home games in all competitions lately, bagging eight goals along the way, and that makes the hosts dangerous. They still miss Bedoya, who is on international duty with USA in the Gold Cup, and that is a blow. However, Gerzic pulls the strings and Haddad scores the goals, as will Paulinho in due course, so Orebro are still a very potent side. They’re also good at manipulating possession, which tends to mean that few sides manage to create a lot against them. Orebro have lost just once in their past seven games in all competitions and that was at Malmo FF in a 2-1 defeat. They’ve won five of those seven games, however, so momentum is strong. They’ve kept four clean sheets in their past five games and Orebro are really starting to look the same strong team that they were last year now.
Djurgarden welcome back Sjolund today, who is an integral part of their midfield. However, they’ve ironically lost fellow Finnish midfielder Perovuo and that is a blow for them from a passing perspective. Sjolund is an incisive and pacey midfielder and Hamalainen is a dangerous winger but Perovuo pulls the strings and he’ll be missed here, in my view. They do still have a decent midfield – hell, they have to as it’s their only strong area – but is it enough to get a result at the Behrn Arena? I just don’t see it. Igboananike isn’t isolated in attack any longer now that Youssef is fit but there’s still work to do to get those two to galvanise properly. Defensively, Djurgarden tend to be a mess with goalkeeper Touray inspiring zero confidence due to his poor goalkeeping skills and subsequently, Djurgarden’s fairly average defence concedes a lot of goals. Form-wise, Djurgarden look like the best side in Sweden based on their last two results at the moment following a 0-4 win at IFK Goteborg and a 3-0 win against Syrianska Sodertalje. Despite their momentum, however, I cannot overlook that Djurgarden are not a great team, especially away from home. I won’t lie – I do like Djurgarden quite a lot from a personal perspective – but this really is a game they should lose.
Most bookies have this game priced correctly but some have give 4/5 on the home win, which I like quite a lot, really. I’d leave it at 3/4 or shorter because Orebro aren’t worth lower without Bedoya to compliment Gerzic in midfield. However, at 4/5, Orebro are appealing to take to win against Djurgarden today.
I’d not touch this at less than 4/5.
Team news – Orebro miss Bedoya whereas Djurgarden miss Perovuo and Oremo.
Verdict: Orebro to win at 4/5.
Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS – home win at evens.
I like this one a lot because Landskrona simply cannot defend for shit. If they could, I’d definitely avoid this one because Brommapojkarna do miss a few regulars ala defender Segerstrom, midfielder Petrovic, and attacker Bahoui. However, Brommapojkarna have a strong attack with African duo Jagne and Corr Nyang proving to be a nightmare to Superettan defences, especially now that Pinones-Arce is getting back to his best. Brommapojkarna have long been secure in defence and that underpins their strong home form. They’ve won five out of six home games this season, keeping four consecutive clean sheets and bagging seven goals in their last two home games. For me, Brommapojkarna are worth a shout here!
Landskrona are a good side themselves but only in front of goal. Henrik Larsson’s managerial skills still have a large question mark above them although Landskrona fans probably won’t care as he managed to lure midfield stalwart Lantz to their team pre-season, who is a strong holding midfielder. Nonetheless, even he must be frustrated with the sheer number of stupid goals that Landskrona concede on a regular basis. This side is good enough to finish in the top five every season and yet look at them this season – they’re fourth from bottom because only five teams have conceded more than they have! Ironically, Landskrona have been far, far better on the road than they have at home this season although I’d at least partially attribute that to them playing mostly rather poor sides on the road. Landskrona really are a hit-and-miss side and I’ve no doubt that they will go on a surging run at somepoint but I really cannot say when that will be – I just hope it doesn’t start today!
For me, the hosts are the better team here and are much more consistent, not to mention composed in every position. I have to consider evens on the home win a very generous price here, irrespective of their absences, so my call is the Brommapojkarna win against a weak Landskrona BoIS defence.
Team news – Brommapojkarna miss Petrovic, Bahoui, and Segerstrom.
Verdict: Brommapojkarna to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Uruguay, Etoile.
Recommended bets:
Atvidaberg, Etoile, and Uruguay at just over evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendly:
Paraguay vs Chile (6) 2-1
Uruguay vs Estonia (9) -1.5 handicap
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
JJK Jyvaskyla vs FC Honka Espoo (5) 2-2
Finnish Ykkonen:
Hameenlinna vs FC Espoo (6)
PK-35 Helsinki vs PS Kemi Kings (7)
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Young Lions (8) 2-0
Balestier Khalsa vs Hougang United (4) 1-2
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Helsingborg vs Trelleborg (7) 1-0
Kalmar FF vs GAIS Goteborg (7) 2-1
Malmo FF vs Gefle (7) 1-0
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Mjallby Solvesborg (5) 0-0
Orebro vs Djurgarden (7) 2-0
Swedish Superettan:
Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS (7)
Atvidaberg vs GIF Sundsvall (7)
Qviding Goteborg vs Osters (5)
Enjoy your free betting tips!