Avai vs Corinthians
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Serie A encounter between minnows Avai and giants Corinthians. These two are polar opposites in terms of quality and I think it’ll show today.
I won’t lightly go against Avai at home because that underdog mentality that they have tends to make them work harder than most sides and given the firepower that they occasionally demonstrate that they have, it’s sometimes just not worth the gamble. However, they’re having a really difficult time this season, conceding effortlessly without being able to produce the goods at the other end. They’ve played five home games in Serie A and have already shipped eleven goals, hence them not yet having won a home game, losing three times along the way. Worryingly, the only two sides they’ve taken points off at home are newcomers to the division – America Mineiro and Bahia respectively – and they conceded two goals in each of those games. Every time they’ve encountered quality at home ala Internacional, Fluminense, and Atletico Mineiro, they’ve been outscored and subsequently lost the game. Will it be anything different tonight against arguably the best side in Brazil right now?
I don’t think it will. Corinthians do have their injury problems, it’s true – that’s why they were “done” by Cruzeiro in the last round of fixtures. However, Corinthians are the epitome of composure on the road, winning four out of five away from home already in Serie A this season. In fact, they’ve kept three consecutive clean sheets away from home as their seemingly impregnable defence rolls on. They’re not a prolific goalscoring side and that is a drawback, admittedly. The sale of Dentinho to Shakthar Donetsk has done them damage. However, Avai are hopeless at the back so Corinthians really should have ample opportunities to win this game and if they take one then they’ll win it, in my view.
Only Flamengo have managed to avoid defeat when Corinthians have taken the lead this season so it doesn’t bode well for little Avai. Corinthians are twice the side that they are and although I’m sure Avai will work as hard as ever, I can only see one winner here and that’s Corinthians. At 10/11, the away win looks worth a flutter here.
Verdict: Corinthians to win at 10/11.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Salzburg vs SV Mattersburg – under 2.5 goals at 7/5.
I quite like Salzburg so far this season. They were horrible last year but they’ve looked very composed this season. They’ve kept four consecutive clean sheets in all competitions as they build from the back and they’ve had a couple of tough games, to be fair – Wacker Innsbruck away and Austria Vienna at home are not games to take lightly. So what’s changed? Well, it’s Pasanen, basically. He’s a top class Finnish defender whom you may recall from his time with Werder Bremen. Injury problems saw him fall down the pecking order and now here he is. He’s playing at a level below his class, in my view, and the fact that Salzburg have kept four clean sheets in a row is in no small part down to him. Salzburg aren’t prolific but they’ve got options in attack with ever-impressive Alan, Zarate, towering Boghossian, and experienced Wallner in their arsenal. They bolstered their attacking options pre-season too, signing AFC Ajax Amsterdam winger Lindgren to compete with Svento. I like the variety in this team, so much so that even their lengthy list of absentees doens’t put me off here. However, they’re going to Slovakia next week to face Senica in the UEFA Europa League second leg and given that they’re taking a slender lead there, they need to send their best team to ensure the job gets done properly so I think they’ll rest players here. Therefore, I expect Salzburg’s offensive power to drop and thus I’m not 100% happy that they’ll win the game.
Helpfully, SV Mattersburg are notorious for their physical playing style and Salzburg often struggle against them as a result. Indeed, with that in mind, is it any wonder that the last five head-to-heads at either ground have gone under 2.5 goals? Salzburg don’t relish physical games but usually have the quality to edge past Mattersburg. Indeed, Salzburg have beaten Mattersburg for five consecutive home games and unsurprisingly, all five games have gone under 2.5 goals. Mattersburg will come to Salzburg to be physical, to get in the faces of Salzburg, and try to unnerve their slowly-budding strikers. They’ve already irritated the hell out of Sturm Graz by claiming a 2-2 draw there in their last match and although I doubt they’ll score twice here, I do think they’ll cause problems. That said, promising youngster Farkas is on international duty with Austria’s U20s and that does damage their functionality as a unit, especially in attack. Mattersburg brought in new strikers pre-season that still need time to gel and I just don’t think they’ll find a way past Salzburg’s iron defence.
It’s unquestionably risky but with the above in mind, 7/5 looks very long for under 2.5 goals here.
Team news – Salzburg miss Lindgren, Sekagya, Teigl, Offenbacher, Meilinger, Douglas, Mendes da Silva, and Schiemer whilst having doubts over Jantscher whereas SV Mattersburg miss Doleschal, Steiner, Rath, Farkas, and Parlov.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 7/5.
Sfintul Gheorghe vs Iskra-Stali – lay Iskra-Stali at 6/5.
Approach this one with caution but Iskra-Stali look awfully short here. Sections of the Moldovan media have suggested that Iskra-Stali have looked tired following their European campaign and who would be surprised? They lost essential attacker Popovici pre-season and have struggled to look anywhere near as threatening in front of goal without him, as good as Ukrainian hitman Suchu is. Iskra-Stali have been largely outplayed in most of their games this season and lost 0-3 at home against Zimbru Chisinau last match so not all is well in their camp currently. Additionally, Sftinul Gheorghe have done well in the Divizia Nationala so far this season following impressive displays from the likes of Karoev, Sakey, and Tcaciuc, who bring good experience to their team. They’re still looking a tad suspect in defence but they’re scoring freely and that should concern their opponents here. For me, a speculative lay of Iskra-Stali at 6/5 is generously priced here and thus is my call.
Verdict: Lay Iskra-Stali at 6/5.
Viking Stavanger vs Fredrikstad – home win at 11/10.
Viking Stavanger welcome back Danielsen from injury for this game to bolster their midfield and it couldn’t have come at a better time either with Viking’s recent displays having really started to improve. Berisha and Bjarnason provide good creativity in midfield and two old hands up front – Nevland and Saeternes – are always a handful with the right service. Viking still need more depth to become the side that they once were but I’ve rated their displays lately and feel that they can do a job here.
Helpfully, Estonian defensive rock Piiroja is a big doubt for this game for Fredrikstad and their defence will concede if he doesn’t play. As I’ve said time and time again regarding Fredrikstad – they’re strong at home due to their especially loud fans and their two attacking leaders (Elyounoussi and Borges) but aside from that they’re an average side. Fredrikstad have lost four out of their last five away games in the Eliteserien because they’ve shipped goals too easily. Their only exception was the 0-1 win at fellow newly-promoted side Sogndal. Fredrikstad can win games on the back of an inspirational Borges display, just as they did against Brann Bergen in their last match, but it usually comes at home – they’ve generally been poor and susceptible away from home this season and I don’t see a reason for that to change today.
Therefore, I’m going with Viking here. Their form has improved of late following impressive displays and I think they’ve got enough to dispose of Fredrikstad today, although I’d leave it if the odds drop below 11/10.
Team news – Viking Stavanger miss Ingelsten and Gyan whereas Fredrikstad miss Valencia and Landgren whilst having doubts over Piiroja.
Verdict: Viking Stavanger to win at 11/10.
Gaz Metan Medias vs Dinamo Bucharest – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
I won’t often go against Gaz Metan Medias at home but with the star of their team – Eric – banished to the second team for his repeated comments about wanting to leave, I find it very hard to take Gaz Metan seriously here. Additionally, Parvulescu – who holds the defence together – misses this game today too. Gaz Metan are a well-built unit but they need their stars or they have nothing to show for it and there’s no question that those two absentees are the top two in terms of importance at this club. Eric’s absence makes Gaz Metan a lot less dangerous in front of goal and in terms of creating chances and we also have to consider the possibility of them resting players here for the visit of Mainz 05 next week in the UEFA Europa League.
Indeed, Dinamo Bucharest may rest players themselves here as they’ve got a tough trip to Croatia to face cash-strapped Varteks Varazdin following an inexplicable 2-2 draw at home against them earlier this week despite dominating the game. That’s Dinamo’s defence for you, though – they can literally concede against any side. I like that they’ve got Niculae and Danciulescu in attack, though – two very dangerous strikers with the right service and with Romania’s hottest prospect Torje on the right wing, you know they’ll get the right service. Alexe is a doubt today – I’m not sure we’ll have his attacking ability on show here, unfortunately – but we will see Albanian Bakaj replacing Munteanu, who was dropped by the coach after Dinamo’s draw with Varteks.
Again, Dinamo may rest players here themselves but their second string is a lot more convincing than Gaz Metan’s, primarily because I don’t believe Gaz Metan has the depth to actually possess a second string.
For me, there’s value on the away win with draw no bet cover as I don’t see Gaz Metan functioning properly without their stars and I’m confident that Dinamo have the firepower to win this one.
Team news – Gaz Metan Medias miss Eric and Parvulescu whereas Dinamo Bucharest have doubts over Alexe.
Verdict: Dinamo Bucharest to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Steaua Bucharest vs Mioveni – away win with +1.5 handicap at 5/6.
This is a risky one but it’s well worth a flutter, in my view.
First of all, this game is played at a neutral venue in Constanta so there’s no home advantage here.
Secondly, Steaua are terrible. I’ve genuinely not seen a Steaua side so horribly bad in front of goal as this side is. Admittedly, they have Costea back for this game and he’ll at least improve their attack but they’re quite simply incredibly lightweight and predictable up front, hence a lot of unconvincing displays over the past couple of years. Look at the players they’ve lost – Moreno, Stancu, Kapetanos etc. so much firepower has dwindled and they’ve not done anywhere near enough to replace those who have left, in my humble opinion. One of the players that left this season was old hand Dica, who joined today’s opponents Mioveni alongside another ex-Steaua attacker Neaga. You have to fancy at least one of them to score here, don’t you? Especially after Dica said he wanted to stay at Steaua but Gigi sent him away anyway.
So yeah – Steaua don’t score goals anymore. You need to remember that for all future bets because they’re not the heavyweights that they once were without some hefty money being poured into the club. You could see that from their 1-1 draw at Vointa Sibiu on the opening day of the season last weekend. Mioveni aren’t a great side – far from it, to be honest. They’re an average side at best but they do have experience and some skilled players, namely Dica, Tanasa, and Neaga, who should be instrumental today. They were a tad unfortunate to lose against Universitatea Cluj in their opening game of the season, in my view, but they won’t be disappointed today because they’re facing the biggest club in Romanian history and you know how much that type of game motivates underdog sides. They’ve got a good level of firepower, Mioveni, despite their failings elsewhere in the team, so I fancy them to upset the odds here.
Mioveni’s defence (or lack of) makes this a risky bet but at 5/6, I think it’s definitely worth a flutter to give Mioveni a +1.5 goal head start against a Steaua side that just doesn’t score many goals anymore due to a lack of quality up front.
Verdict: Mioveni to win with a +1.5 goal handicap at 5/6.
Accumulator fodder:
Rabotnicki Skopje, Zenit St.Petersburg, Shakhtar Donetsk, Suduva Marijampole.
Recommended bets:
Corinthians and Zenit St.Petersburg at just over evens.
Both sides to score in all of the Veikkausliiga games today at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Vienna (5) 1-0
Salzburg vs SV Mattersburg (5) 1-0
Rapid Vienna vs SV Ried (7) 1-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
FC Minsk vs Neman Grodno (5) 0-1
Dinamo Brest vs Dinamo Minsk (6) 1-2
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk (6) 1-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs Westerlo (7) 2-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama (7) 2-1
Fluminense vs Ceara (6) 1-0
Internacional vs Atletico Goianiense (6) 1-0
Avai vs Corinthians (7) 0-1
Atletico Paranaense vs Santos (5) 2-2
America Mineiro vs Coritiba (6) 1-2
Bahia vs Figueirense (6) 1-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Cobreloa vs Union Espanola (6) 1-1
Cobresal vs Colo Colo (5) 1-2
Santiago Wanderers vs Nublense (6) 1-0
Union La Calera vs Santiago Morning (6) 1-0
Universidad de Concepcion vs Huachipato (5) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Split vs Slaven Koprivnica (4) 1-1
Sibenik vs Varteks Varazdin (7) 1-0
Zadar vs Hajduk Split (4) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Ceske Budejovice vs Sparta Prague (7) 0-1
Hradec Kralove vs Viktoria Zizkov (6) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
Silkeborg vs SonderjyskE (5) 1-1
Lyngby vs HB Koge (6) 2-1
Brondby vs AC Horsens (4) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
LDU Loja vs Deportivo Cuenca (6) 0-0
Olmedo Riobamba vs El Nacional Quito (5) 1-0
Deportivo Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil (7) 1-0
Independiente vs Espoli Cayambe (6) 2-1
Imbabura vs Liga de Quito (7) 1-2
Emelec Guayaquil vs Manta (7) 2-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS Kuopio vs JJK Jyvaskyla (6) 2-1
TPS Turku vs FC Honka Espoo (5) 1-1
VPS Vaasa vs Jaro Pietarsaari (5) 1-2
Finnish Ykkonen:
Hameenlinna vs Viikingit Helsinki (6)
Jippo Joensuu vs FC Espoo (6)
PK-35 Helsinki vs OPS Oulu (6)
KPV Kokkola vs FC Lahti (7)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Diosgyori VTK vs Kecskemeti TE (5) 2-1
Debreceni VSC vs Ferencvaros (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Paksi SE vs Lombard Papa (6) 1-0
Japanese J-League:
Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima Antlers (4) 0-1
Vegalta Sendai vs Kashiwa Reysol (5) 1-1
Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus (6) 1-2
Lithuanian A Lyga;
Atlantas vs Zalgiris Vilnius (7) 0-1
Tauras Taurage vs Suduva Marijampole (8) 0-2
FBK Kaunas vs Kruoja Pakruojis (6) 1-2
Macedonian First League:
Rabotnicki Skopje vs Bregalnica Stip (8) 2-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Morelia vs Pumas UNAM (6) 1-1
Toluca vs America (5) 1-1
Puebla vs Pachuca (6) 2-1
Guadalajara vs Jaguares (7) 2-0
Moldovan Divizia Nationala:
Sfintul Gheorghe vs Iskra-Stali (5) 2-1
Tiraspol vs Sheriff Tiraspol (7) 0-2, at least one red card in this game
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Stromsgodset vs Lillestrom (4) 2-2
Odd Grenland Skien vs Brann Bergen (6) 1-0
Sarpsborg 08 vs Haugesund (5) 1-0
Viking Stavanger vs Fredrikstad (6) 2-1
Stabaek vs Start Kristiansand (5) 1-1
Tromso vs Aalesund FK (7) 2-0
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Sol de America vs Sportivo Luqueno (6) 1-0
General Caballero vs Independiente FBC (6) 2-1
3 de Febrero vs Tacuary (5) 1-0
Rubio Nu vs Cerro Porteno (6) 0-1
Peruvian Primera Division:
Union Comercio vs Alianza Lima (6) 0-1
Sport Huancayo vs Cienciano (6) 1-0
Universidad San Martin vs Cobresol (7) 2-0
Juan Aurich vs Universitario Lima (6) 1-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Slask Wroclaw vs Gornik Zabrze (5) 1-1
Legia Warsaw vs Zaglebie Lubin (4) 1-1
Polish Liga 1:
Nieciecza vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz (7)
Polonia Bytom vs Warta Poznan (5)
Romanian Liga:
Astra Ploiesti vs Vointa Sibiu (7) 2-0
Steaua Bucharest vs Mioveni (5) 1-0
Gaz Metan Medias vs Dinamo Bucharest (6) 1-2
Russian Premier League:
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Spartak Nal’chik (8) 2-0
Dinamo Moscow vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (7) 2-1
FK Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow (7) 1-2
Rostov-na-Donu vs Lokomotiv Moscow (5) 2-1
Scottish Premier League:
Hearts vs Dundee United (6) 1-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Senica vs Trencin (6) 1-0
Spartak Trnava vs Tatran Presov (6) 2-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Triglav vs Domzale (5) 1-1
Mura 05 vs Nafta Lendava (4) 1-1
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Gorica (6) 2-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Gefle vs Orebro (6) 1-1
AIK Solna vs Elfsborg Boras (6) 2-1
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Syrianska Sodertalje (5) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Ljungskile vs Varnamo (6)
Qviding Goteborg vs Atvidaberg (7)
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs Thun (5) 1-0
Neuchatel Xamax vs Sion (6) 0-1
Young Boys Bern vs Servette (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Swiss Challenge League:
Bruhl vs Wil (5)
Ukrainian Premier League:
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Chernomorets Odessa (6) 2-1
Karpaty Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava (7) 2-0
Arsenal Kiev vs Shakhtar Donetsk (8) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!