Balestier Khalsa vs Woodlands Wellington
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Today’s secondary featured game is the S-League encounter between Balestier Khalsa and Woodlands Wellington. These two sides have a nasty habit of playing out droll, low-scoring games and that’s exactly what I’m counting on today.
Balestier Khalsa have a reputation for being one of the most defensively sound sides in Singapore and eight goals conceded in nine S-League games despite playing at least five sides that are better than they are does nothing but reinforce that point. Generally speaking, this side is very well-organised and doesn’t like to break their necks to score goals nor become over-zealous and concede stupid goals. They’ll occasionally have a rush of blood to the head ala their 0-3 win at Gombak United but they’re generally a defensive side that few teams can get past. That record may be put into jeopardy today, however, by the mighty Woodlands Wellington!
Football in Singapore may not be fixed but Woodlands have some bloody funny records against Balestier Khalsa. Woodlands have beaten Balestier for seven out of their last nine meetings despite there not being much quality difference between the two sides. I’d be surprised to see that repeated today, however, with Woodlands possessing a dismal record in front of goal at the moment with just four goals scored in eight S-League games thus far. They average conceding two goals per game but are yet to register a goal “away” from home, losing three times and drawing once along the way. However, Woodlands are not a side that concedes heavily on a regular basis, irrespective of what the statistics show. They’re capable of beating beaten; that’s why they’re not doing very well currently. However, they’re not a Tanjong Pagar side that’ll lose every game, in my view; they are capable of causing problems.
With the above in mind, I still fail to see how under 2.5 goals is priced as generously as it is here. Neither side scores many goals at all and given that six out of the last eight head-to-head meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals, I think taking under 2.5 goals in this game today is a good value bet.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Midtylland vs AC Horsens – lay Midtylland at 23/20.
I’ve been scratching my head for a while as I fervently try to understand why Midtylland are 4/5 to win this game and I still don’t get it.
Yes, they’re the bigger name between the two sides and Horsens are no superstars but still – 4/5? There’s a damn good reason that Midtylland have one just once in their past seven Superligaen games and it’s because they sold most of their attacking talent during the mid-winter transfer window. Defender Priske has gone too, so their defence is even more vulnerable than before. They really miss Kristensen in attack, in my view, not to mention Larsen. Their attack doesn’t have enough goals in them as they’re far too reliant on midfielders ala Thygesen, Olsen, and Poulsen – when he’s fit! Midtylland knock the ball around nicely and look the part but as a side that scores goals and win games? They simply aren’t one of them.
I’m not a big fan of Horsens in general but they’ve impressed me since returning from the winter break. They’ve not been adventurous or even interesting but they’ve still lost just once in their past six Superligaen games, frustrating the hell out of sides like OB Odense and Aalborg BK. Horsens welcome back Kortegaard to further strengthen their midfield but they unfortunately miss defender Aslam, which is a bit of a blow here. Nonetheless, Horsens’ strength lies in their unity and it’ll take something special to break them down today, in my view, something that I just don’t see in the Midtylland ranks currently.
Additionally, Midtylland miss defender Albrechtsen for this game and have won just over a third of their home games in the Superligaen this season so how on earth are they at 4/5 here, after selling some of their best players? For me, the only value in this game is to lay the hosts at decent odds of 23/20.
Team news – Midtylland miss Salami and Albrechtsen whereas AC Horsens miss Aslam.
Verdict: Lay Midtylland at 23/20.
Skive vs AB Copenhagen – home win at 7/5.
Skive are by far the most hilarious and entertaining team in Denmark, in my view. I’ve seen this side come from behind more times than any other and also manage to lose games that they should win easily. They can either be a side that is more than capable of beating any side in this division (perhaps barring AGF Aarhus, who are way, way too good for this division!) and yet they’re also capable of losing to most sides in the divisions below them. Based on the fact that they’ve won three consecutive games ahead of this one, however, you have to assume that they’ll continue that momentum against giants AB Copenhagen today. Skive haven’t just beaten crap teams, either – they won at a tricky Roskilde side, beat Viborg 2-0 in the derby, and won 1-3 at in-form Fredericia last match so you can see how strong Skive are when they want to be. With Thomsen and Lawal supporting Dalgaard in attack, this Skive side has goals in them and that’s one thing their opponents just don’t have currently.
I like AB Copenhagen quite a lot but they’re so frustrating! It beggars belief that they’re not back in the Superligaen yet and all that holds them back is consistency. They’ve got the quality but aren’t consistent enough in front of goal and it costs them. They’ve lost three out of their last four games and have drawn the other one of those matches, scoring just four times along the way. It’s simply not enough for a big side like AB Copenhagen and averaging conceding three goals per game is not a record that you want to take into an away game against ever-potent Skive. AB Copenhagen have been embarrassed by much worse sides than Skive lately so why not again today?
I appreciate that the visitors are better than the hosts from a quality perspective but AB are going to have to play very well here to win and they’ve just not done that lately. They won 3-4 at Skive last season and they really had to be on the ball for that win. Can you see them scoring four today? I can’t. Skive might be bad enough to concede that many goals but with Christensen having failed to adequately replace summer sale Jorgensen, I just can’t see it. For me, there’s potentially value in the home win at 7/5.
Verdict: Skive to win at 7/5.
HB Koge vs Vestjaelland – home win at 9/10.
Vestjaelland miss defender Marcher and midfielder Erdem for this game so the task is already hard for the visitors. HB Koge are simply a better side than they are and bringing an under-strength team to Herfolge is never a good idea, especially when your last away game resulted in a 3-0 drubbing at the hands of relegation-threatened Fyn. Vestjaelland aren’t an easy side to beat because of the number of goals that they score but that barely conceals the fact that Vestjaelland are crap at the back and today they’re facing one of the few sides who can really punish them for it. HB Koge have already won eight out of eleven Division 1 home games this season whilst averaging scoring two goals per home game whereas it’s actually a fact that only relegation-threatened Fyn and rock-bottom Hvidovre have conceded more goals on the road than Vestjaelland have. HB Koge have won four consecutive games ahead of this one so momentum favours them massively. Can Vestjaelland stop them today? I’d be surprised to see it. For me, there’s too much value in the home win at 9/10 to be overlooked here.
Team newws – Vestjaelland miss Erdem and Marcher.
Verdict: HB Koge to win at 9/10.
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Orebro – home win at 6/5.
Although Orebro have improved a lot pre-season, I’m going to take a chance on them losing this game. They don’t tend to produce the goods as much away from home as when they’re at home in the Allsvenskan as they don’t have their artificial pitch on the road usually. However, you can see from their results on artificial turf last season that it does make a difference. They claimed a 3-3 draw at Elfsborg Boras and a 1-2 victory at Gefle last season; they were one of just five teams to avoid defeat in Boras against one of Elfsborg’s strongest sides in years and the turf had a big part in it, in my view.
Orebro are a very good side; I won’t skirt around that issue. Bedoya and Gerzic are two good midfielders and now that they’ve signed Paulinho from BK Hacken Goteborg, they’re ready to launch an assault on the Allsvenskan. However, they’re going to have to wait a little longer for that unholy threesome to be linked up as Paulinho won’t be playing against his former club today and thus Orebro may revert back to their usual issue of finding the net on a consistent basis. Their defence is generally solid but you can see what a rather poor Gefle side did to them last match simply by counter-attacking so you have to wonder if Orebro will have been riled by such a poor home defeat against inferior opposition. Hacken are an arising side and they have a good home record against Orebro. They’ve already beaten illustrious local rivals IFK Goteborg and have also drubbed Allsvenskan newbies Syrianska Sodertalje 1-5 away from home so Hacken clearly aren’t missing Paulinho currently. Indeed, it looks like they’re almost better off without the Brazilian now that Ranegie and Chibuike are attacking well.
As is the usual with these two sides, it’s generally safe to expect goals here. However, I’m going to take a small punt on a home win as it’s rather generously priced at 6/5 given how well Hacken have played thus far, even in Boras against Elfsborg where they only eventually succumbed to defeat due to sitting back way too early in the game. Orebro may be a tad vulnerable after their shock defeat at home to Gefle and given that goalscoring is generally not a forté of theirs – yet – I’m tempted to take the home win here.
Verdict: BK Hacken Goteborg to win at 6/5.
AIK Solna vs IFK Goteborg – both sides to score = no at evens.
IFK Goteborg go from one derby straight into another against old hands AIK with neither side in glistening form.
The problem with both of these Swedish giants is that they’re far too reliant on their few talented players. The Bangura/Bangura strike partnership is working wonders for AIK but it’s no secret that they’s all they’ve got as an attacking force; without them, AIK are fucked, to be blunt. IFK are in a similar boat with far too much reliance on Hysen and even emerging Soder can’t relieve that pressure due to constant injury issues. These two sides can both defend on their day and they can both frustrate any side they choose to. It’s not generally IFK’s tactic to do so but I suspect it will be tonight as a draw in Stockholm against AIK is a good result for them nowadays. AIK are very much a side that likes to defend and keep things tight and with neither side really being able to afford losing this game due to its importance and due to the starts that both sides have made, I think we’ll see a close game with few chances in it. Considering that IFK beat rivals Helsingborg earlier this week in the Allsvenskan, confidence should be high but will they use it in this game? I think they’ll be more tired than anything, as should AIK after their exhausting 2-2 draw in Boras against Elfsborg at weekend.
For me, this is a game that neither side can afford to lose, if only for derby reasons. Neither side is a great goalscoring side anymore, both needing moments of individual brilliance to carve out goals and I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see a 0-0 draw emerge from this game between two big sides as IFK need to tighten up their leaky defence and AIK don’t like to play adventurously.
Intriguingly, both sides have scored in this game in just three out of the last eleven meetings between both sides and it’s happened just twice in ten meetings in Stockholm so you can see where my tip today originates from. If either of these two sides do score in this game then I thoroughly expect them to sit back and frustrate their opponents so for me, backing either side to score = no at evens looks good value today, especially with IFK captain Johansson having not travelled with the team.
Team news – IFK Goteborg miss Johansson.
Verdict: Both sides to score = no at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
AGF Aarhus, EB/Streymur.
Recommended bets:
HB Koge, EB/Streymur, and AGF Aarhus at over 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Lokeren (6) 2-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Nublense vs Union Espanola (5) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
OB Odense vs Nordsjaelland (7) 2-0
Midtylland vs AC Horsens (6) 1-1
Lyngby vs FC Copenhagen (7) 1-2
Brondby vs Esbjerg (3) 1-1
Danish 1st Division:
Skive vs AB Copenhagen (6) over 2.5 goals
Bronshoj vs Hvidovre (7)
Fyn vs Viborg (4) both sides to score
AGF Aarhus vs Fredericia (8)
Hobro vs Hjorring (5)
Naestved vs Roskilde (6)
HB Koge vs Vestjaelland (7)
Vejle vs Kolding (5)
English Championship:
Ipswich Town vs Norwich City (5) both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
IF Fuglafjordur vs KI Klaksvik (8) over 2.5 goals
Vikingur Gotu vs B36 Torshavn (8) 2-0
EB/Streymur vs 07 Vestur Sorvagur (9) -1.5 handicap
HB Torshavn vs B71 Sandur (7) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
SC Freiburg vs Hannover 96 (6) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Paderborn vs VfL Bochum (6)
Erzebirge Aue vs Energie Cottbus (5)
Osnabruck vs FSV Frankfurt (6)
Italian Serie B:
Pescara vs Frosinone (5)
Padova vs Vicenza (6)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin (5) 2-2
Slask Wroclaw vs Wisla Krakow (6) 2-1
Polish Liga 1:
LKS Lodz vs Gorzow Wielkopolski (7)
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa vs Woodlands Wellington (6) 0-0
Geylang United vs Tampines Rovers (7) 0-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
AIK Solna vs IFK Goteborg (6) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Gefle vs Trelleborg (5) 1-1
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Orebro (6) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Delemont vs Biel-Bienne (5)
Enjoy your free betting tips!