Belshina vs BATE Borisov
FreeToday’s featured game is the Belarusian Vysshaya Liga game between Belshina and BATE Borisov. Newly-promoted Belshina have performed well this season, much better than expected, but they’re lacking in quality and that should be exposed today. Visitors BATE Borisov are the reigning champions of the Vysshaya Liga and I expect them to demonstrate just why that is today.
Belshina have earned my respect since promotion because they’re been compact and hard to beat. Because there isn’t a massive quality gap between the Vysshaya Liga and the 1.Division, Belshina have blended in seamlessly with some impressive results to boot. They’ve played six home games this season, winning four times, drawing once, and losing once, so they’ve been solid at home. The only side to win here was Dinamo Minsk, BATE Borisov’s main title rivals, who are incidentally the only travelling side to have scored at Belshina this season. That’s an extremely useful statistic for Belshina being as they’ve only scored four home goals this season – more conceded goals and they’d be nowhere near where they are in the table currently. However, unfortunately for Belshina, they’ve started looking a little rocky and stretched of late, as you’d expect from an overachieving side. Belshina took a 3-0 battering at Dinamo Minsk last match and as much as I rate Dinamo Minsk, their 4-5-1 formation tends to mean that although they, win they keep goalscoring low. However, Belshina crumbled to the mighty Minsk midfield and were torn apart as a result. Interestingly enough, that defeat means that Belshina have lost three games in the Vysshaya Liga this season and all of them have been against the best two sides in the division – BATE Borisov and Dinamo Minsk respectively – so they certainly know their limits. During those three games, Belshina have leaked seven goals and haven’t scored any, hence them knowing their limits. They lost their only away game of the season at BATE Borisov on the opening day of the season and it looks a bridge too far for them to change their fortunes around today against the reigning champions with a demoralised side as they host a superior opponent.
BATE Borisov own this league! I love Dinamo Minsk and respect the authenticity of their claim towards being the biggest side in Belarus in terms of history and local produce but BATE Borisov run the show here nowadays. They’ve won four consecutive league titles and now have both the ability and financial backing to prolong that run for many years to come. I mean, come on, BATE Borisov have played six away games this season, winning three times and drawing three times. You may think that isn’t an impressive record, and fair enough – it doesn’t look too flattering. However, now consider that they’ve played twelve games overall this season and are still yet to concede a goal! Are you now convinced of how good BATE Borisov are? They’ve not been as potent this season and understandably so after the sale of talismanic playmaker Krivets but they’re still the best side in the league by some distance and it only takes a goal for them to show it too. Belshina concede easily against the elite sides of the league and it doesn’t get much more elite than BATE Borisov nowadays in Belarus so I have to say that BATE will do the job today.
For the reversal of this fixture, BATE Borisov were at least 1/4 if my memory serves me correctly. How can they now be 4/6 to win the same game away from home? They’re two or possibly even three times as good as Belshina are! I respect the hosts massively for their achievements and compact defence but this is a bridge too far for them – BATE Borisov can beat anyone in this legue and I expect them to do so again today. Odds of 4/6 aren’t the most flattering around but frankly they should be 1/2 at a minimum for this game – the only reason they’re longer is because the bookies are only looking at the league table instead of assessing actual quality! So grab it quick before the bookies inevitably drop the odds, which they’ve been doing rather a lot of late with my picks!
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win at 4/6.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Minsk vs Dinamo Minsk – away win at 6/5.
This is quite a risky call but not because of the Vysshaya Liga table as you may suspect but because the minnows of Minsk host the giants of Minsk and the underdogs are always highly-motivated for such games.
Indeed, the league table is somewhat misleading this year. Minsk aren’t as good as their form suggests and Dinamo aren’t as good on the road as their form suggests so we have a double-whammy of disillusionment on our hands here!
We do have to be careful here though. Minsk won at Dinamo Minsk earlier in the season when Dinamo were in the doldrums. However, Dinamo are back on track now with some excellent results and bring tremendous momentum into this game against their local rivals. The hosts also bring strong momentum into this game as well as convincing home form (on paper) with four wins in six games whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game. Dinamo haven’t won here since Minsk were promoted a couple of years ago but I don’t think they’ve ever been better placed to shatter that record than they are today. Their midfield looks deadly with their three home-grown midfielders eager to seek revenge for their depressing defeat at home to their lowly neighbours earlier in the season and they’ve now got the confidence to extract revenge.
However, Minsk have battles of their own with ex-Dinamo Minsk midfielder Andrey Razin topping the scoring charts for Minsk this season with five goals and he’ll certainly have a point to prove today. He was all set to become something big about eight years ago but never really made it, unfortunately, which is a shame – he used to be a great dribbler of the ball. Minsk have missed Sheryakov this season because he’s only started half of their games and yet has scored four goals so he’ll have to be on top form to trouble their more illustrious opponents today.
One thing that does peturb me that regarding Minsk is not only their experience but the motivation of their players. Not only are they playing as the underdogs to their illustrious rivals but they have players on the park with personal agendas – key midfielder Loshankov (ex-BATE Borisov), Razin (ex-Dinamo Minsk) – and they’ve got some experienced heads in their team. I have a little fear that Dinamo’s usually assured youngsters in the middle of the park may buckle under constant pressure and the experience of their opponents but look at how they’ve responded to such things this season – they’ve given Dinamo five wins in six away games, the best record in the league, so I won’t underestimate the visitors.
Although I don’t think Dinamo are capable of playing so well on the road consistently for the season, they’ve defied me so far so why not a little further? They’ve not buckled yet; they’re in great form and the way they keep the ball is phenomenal. Dinamo’s great threat is their danger from range as well as in front of goal so they’re a hard side to defend against. I think this will be a good game between the two Minsk clubs today but ultimately I cannot possibly overlook the generous odds on the away win for the superior of the two sides, particularly when they’re in such good form, although I cannot emphasise enough that caution must be taken in this game for reasons shown above.
Verdict: Dinamo Minsk to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk, BATE Borisov, Chile, Poland U21.
Recommended bets:
Dinamo Minsk and BATE Borisov at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Baltic League:
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Suduva Marijampole (5) 0-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Partizan Minsk vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (8) 0-2
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Vitebsk (4) 1-1
Neman Grodno vs Dnepr Mogilev (5) 1-0
Minsk vs Dinamo Minsk (6) 0-1
Belshina vs BATE Borisov (8) 0-2
Torpedo Zhodino vs Dinamo Brest (5) 1-1
Danish 1st Division:
Vejle vs Viborg (8)
International Friendly:
Chile vs New Zealand (7) under 2.5 goals (played in South Africa)
Luxembourg U21 vs Poland U21 (8) -1.75 handicap
Italian Play-Offs:
Torino vs Brescia (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Tampines Rovers (4) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!