Blackpool vs Sunderland

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Today’s featured game is the English Premier League game between Blackpool and Sunderland. These two sides played out an epic and frankly exciting game of football at the Stadium of Light recently which Blackpool somehow won 0-2 despite being totally outplayed in the game so we may see an interesting game today, especially from a revenge perspective!

I love betting on Blackpool; it’s as simple as that. Ian Holloway’s spirited side never fail to both score and concede goals excessively so “over 2.5 goals” is on the verge of being incorporated as part of the Blackpool name! They’ve gone over 2.5 goals in all eight Premier League home games this season, the most recent of which was a 2-1 win against Liverpool. Unsurprisingly, they’ve scored and conceded in all of those eight games as they battle on valiantly in a bid to beat the drop and I personally hope that they manage it – they bring a great spirit to the Premier League that most clubs really lack and I have a massive amount of respect for Holloway and the way he motivates his players for every single game. Blackpool played out arguably one of the best games of the current Premier League campaign last match in a 3-2 defeat at West Bromwich Albion but in all honesty, 6-6 wouldn’t have been an unfair scoreline. Blackpool have no knowledge of whether they’re losing a game or not and nor do they care; they play football for the enjoyment, to attack, and to score goals. What can you say to that? How do you train your players to stop a team that only knows how to attack and score goals? A side that has no limitations on the belief that they have in their own team-mates? You can’t, in my view; even if you win the game, Blackpool spirits are not dampened and it’s that spirit that convinces me that Blackpool will attack and score goals in this game today.

However, visitors Sunderland are not going to lie down here, especially after their defeat against Blackpool back in December. Boss Steve Bruce was left speechless having seen his side utterly destroy Blackpool for ninety minutes, hit over thirty shots on target, and miraculously lose the game 0-2 in baffling fashion. Sunderland are out for revenge here and I wouldn’t write them off getting a result here too. Sunderland are not notoriously good travellers but they are a better team quality-wise than Blackpool so that may count today. The press hype surrounding Bent’s contraversial move to Aston Villa won’t have helped matters, especially as striker Danny Welbeck is out injured for six weeks, which leaves Gyan up front on his own. However, Bruce has a great midfield to fall back on and I don’t worry too much about the absent strikers today as I don’t rate Blackpool’s defence highly enough here. Sunderland have actually just signed Jamaican striker Ricardo Fuller from Stoke City (presumably as a temporary measure) and it’s a good move for them, really – Bruce likes his forwards to be quick, good finishers, and strong and Fuller is all of those things. The missing Cattermole in the holding midfield role is going to hurt them more than anything else in this game as Blackpool love to attack so the hosts should have plenty of joy here. However, Sunderland know how to counter-attack well and have a lot of pace to utilise so I can see them scoring too.

All in all, over 2.5 goals looks the way forward here. I really don’t fancy the 1×2 market for this one as I can’t envision a scoreline in this game that I’d think “Wow, is that seriously how it ended?!”. However, over 2.5 goals sits very well with me here as there’s the perfect recipe for a lot of goals here, just as there always is at Bloomfield Road, so that’s my call today!

Team news – Blackpool miss Basham, Carney, Clarke, Gilks, Martin, and have doubts over Harewood whereas Sunderland miss Campbell, Meyler, Turner, Welbeck, Carson, Cattermole, and Mensah.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Saturday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Chile U20 vs Uruguay U20 – Chile U20 to win at 6/4.

I hate writing previews for this tournament because it’s really hard to substantiate anything! All I can say about this game is that Chile are better passers of the ball and have better players, in my humble opinion. I don’t honestly know what else I can write here other than that Uruguay were very disappointing and impotent against a poor Venezuela side so a talented Chile side should really be able to win this one with some ease if they take their chances.

Verdict: Chile U20 to win at 6/4.

Argentina U20 vs Venezuela U20 – Argentina U20 HT/FT at 4/5.

Another one I find it impossible to write a preview about! Argentina are simply a lot better than Venezuela – what else can I say? Venezuela have one good attacking player and some decent defensive players but generally are lacking in quality everywhere in comparison to Argentina. Argentina don’t have their strongest squad available but they really shouldn’t need it against a side that they’re light years ahead of. For me, Argentina should get this game over and done with as early as possible as this tournament has brought a lot of first-half goals around so backing Argentina to win HT/FT at 4/5 looks a decent call to me.

Verdict: Argentina U20 to win HT/FT at 4/5.

Racing Genk vs Kortrijk – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/5.

Racing Genk are back from their winter break, fresh and raring to go! They were looking a bit jaded before the break came along, especially after Vossen had his period out with injury but I expect a much more rejuvenated Genk today. Let’s face it – if they don’t then they can wave goodbye to the Eerste Klasse title that they so desperately desire. Currently six points behind league leaders Anderlecht, Genk know that nothing but a win will suffice here, especially with Anderlecht competing in their “Clasico” tomorrow against Standard de Liege so I expect a very focused Genk display here. They miss Tunisian midfielder Camus today, which is a blow but it’s not fatal for Genk, in my view. Youngster De Bruyne needs to step up to the plate to continue his growing reputation or risk being cast aside as a failure. The power of this Genk side is in their attack, however. I’ve mentioned the brilliance of Vossen already but the support he obtains from the likes of Barda, Buffel, and Ogunjimi aids him massively and as such, hardly anyone can keep Genk out. Genk have already won eight out of ten Eerste Klasse home games this season whilst averaging scoring over three goals per home game and conceding an average of a goal per home game so they need to be taken very seriously here. I don’t realistically think that they can maintain such excellent statistics for the remainder of the season but the break should have done them enough good for it to continue for at least this game against Kortrijk.

I rate Kortrijk a lot but their statistics flatter them this season, especially at home. They had a real battle a few days ago, drawing 0-0 with a strong Lokeren side but they may be weary ahead of this game as a result. Kortrijk’s defence tends to be solid; it’s their attack where they tend to have problems. Indeed, Kortrijk have scored so few goals away from home that only Sint-Truiden have a worse record than they do with Kortrijk’s record being just six goals scored in ten away games. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Kortrijk have lost six of those ten games. Kortrijk average conceding 1.5 goals per away game and although that’s generally not incriminating enough for me to take the handicap against this defensively-orientated side, it is today because Kortrijk miss important midfielder De Beule (and thus their strength as a unit is considerably weaker) and because I don’t see how Kortrijk are going to keep Genk out, let alone score against them. Kortrijk have played three tough away games this season – they lost 3-0 at Anderlecht, 2-0 at AA Gent, and 1-0 at Standard de Liege (which was only low-scoring due to Standard having no proper striker available to them at that point i.e. no Tchite). Notice the pattern? Kortrijk know when they’re outclassed; they concede heavily without response and I expect more of the same today.

There’s no guarantees with a bet like this as you never know what a winter break does for a side. For my money, the break has to have helped Genk more than it’s hindered them so they should be in fine form today. Kortrijk will make life hard for them but I sense a lot of one-way traffic in this game and in all honesty, Genk are far too generously priced on the -1.5 goal handicap at 6/5 so that’s my call today.

Team news – Genk miss Camus whereas Kortrijk miss De Beule.

Verdict: Racing Genk to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 6/5.

Germinal Beerschot vs Zulte-Waregem – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.

GBA are in a bit of trouble at the moment points-wise as they’re a lot closer to the relegation zone than they’d like to be and a severe lack of goals is the predominant reasoning behind that issue. GBA have shockingly won just three out of twenty Eerste Klasse games this season, winning just twice in ten home games. They’d be a lot lower in the table if they were losing lots of games but fortuitously, their defence has kept them in a presentably league position as the only side with a better defensive record at home in the Eerste Klasse than GBA is league leaders Anderlecht. However, GBA’s record of scoring four goals in ten home games is the worst in the division and it speaks volumes about the issues that GBA have at the moment. GBA have signed African striker Kalonji from Anderlecht to try and resolve their issue but I don’t see it working, personally. GBA have a lot of attackers but the only one that does anything is Brazilian Junior Negrao, who ironically misses this game today. The rest just don’t contribute enough and I’ve not seen enough from Kalonji to think that he will rectify that issue. I was much more impressed with GBA’s acquisition of Finnish winger Porokara from Orebro as he’ll give them some creativity on the flanks, which they really need! However, it’s a drop in the ocean to this defensively-orientated side and I don’t see how they can possibly win this game without their best striker and with new players that they have yet to integrate.

Zulte-Waregem, for my money, are simply a better side than GBA. Admittedly, they rely heavily on the Hyland/Habibou combination but it works very well for them and as a result, they look a dangerous side in front of goal. Zulte-Waregem don’t score anywhere near as many goals away from home as they do at home as they adopt a far more cautious tactical approach. However, this tactical approach suits them as they’ve only lost twice away from home in the Eerste Klasse this season and their defensive record on the road is immense with only Anderlecht possessing a better away record defensively. Zulte-Waregem have only won twice away from home this season due to not taking their chances well enough but they’re still a nightmare side to try and beat so I think they’ll fancy their chances today, especially with GBA’s star striker Junior Negrao missing the game.

Zulte-Waregem will miss the influential Van Nieuwenhuyze for this game but they should be able to cope with a fairly predictable GBA side, in all honesty. GBA bring little to the table in front of goal as it is, let alone without their best striker, so you can understand why I don’t rate their chances today. My bet involves Zulte-Waregem taking their chances, admittedly, but they look far more likely to do so than their unadventurous hosts. Therefore, taking the away win with draw no bet cover at 6/5 looks an interesting bet today.

Team news – Germinal Beerschot miss Pacovski, De Decker, Junior Negrao, and Smet whereas Zulte-Waregem miss Meert, Sterckx, Van Nieuwenhuyze, and have doubts over D’Haene.

Verdict: Zulte-Waregem to win with draw no bet at 6/5.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City – away win at 11/10.

An awful lot has been made about this Darren Bent move from Sunderland to Aston Villa – am I the only one who thinks it was a bad move?! Aston Villa already have pace – the one thing that they do not need is pace! So what does dumbass Houllier do? He goes and not only buys a striker with pace but loans out a one of the best aerial attackers in the Premier League! What fucking planet is this guy on? He’s making Aston Villa a very poor imitation of Arsenal in that they’ll have one style of playing football and no “Plan B”, which hasn’t worked well at all for them because they’re simply not very good at it. Their defence is shot to pieces under Houllier’s regime for some inane reason and don’t be surprised if Emile Heskey moves on in this window or the next as Houllier looks to replace his target men with pacey players. Honestly, I’d love to hear from Villa fans on this because this guy looks absolutely useless and I can only see Villa struggling for as long as he remains in charge.

So Villa will most likely play very predictable football against City whilst defending very badly. Mancini is not a great manager but he’s good enough to get his side to exploit Villa’s defensive ineptitude. Tevez is in fantastic form and is scoring goals for fun, which will hopefully keep lumbering oaf Edin Dzeko out of the team as he’s useless. City will most likely use their unattractive 4-5-1 here because it makes sense to do so to limit Villa’s only dangermen on the flanks. The counter-attacks with pace will no doubt baffle this disjointed Villa defence and if Tevez and co. don’t take their chances then I’ll be surprised, given their recent form.

I’m not stupid enough to rave about City being a world-class side because they’re not at the moment. They may become one if they continue to progress, get a better manager, and score more goals, but don’t buy into their future plans by backing them at short odds this season when they’ve not demonstrated enough to prove it, in my humble opinion. Indeed, if Dzeko starts this game then please feel free to ignore my selection as I don’t rate this guy anywhere near as much as the remainder of the world seemingly does. He’s an average striker who can head the ball – I really don’t see why City have bought him. Nonetheless, City really should win this one as Villa are sitting ducks for a side that can score a goal and hold a lead and if there’s one thing that defensive moguls City can do, it’s hold a lead. For me, 11/10 on the away win in this game makes a lot of sense today.

Team news – Aston Villa miss Heskey, Delph, Ireland, and Luke Young whereas Manchester City miss Balotelli and Richards.

Verdict: Manchester City to win at 11/10.

Newcastle United vs Tottenham Hotspur – away win at 11/10.

Although they fucked up my Sunderland tip, I was very impressed with Newcastle’s display in the Tyne-Wear derby so I’m a little apprehensive about this one today!

Nonetheless, I’m going to give it a go because Newcastle have some hefty absentees and Spurs looked decent against Manchester United in their last game so they can and should make it count here. Newcastle’s defence is not a patch on Manchester United’s so keeping Spurs out is going to be very difficult indeed. Newcastle have no Campbell and no Steven Taylor for this game so they already look vulnerable in defence. They miss star striker Carroll yet again, who is openly coveted by an admiring Harry Redknapp on a frequent basis, and that removes the danger of their attacks by at least 50% in my view. Newcastle’s strength is their battling midfield duo of Nolan and Barton, who have linked up very well indeed. They’ll give Spurs a real battle in midfield today and if Spurs don’t match it then they’ll struggle here.

However, the above is all that concerns me regarding a Spurs win in this game so I have to take the away win here. The likes of Van Der Vaart and Modric and Lennon really should be too much for Newcastle in this game as they’re all frighteningly good on the ball. A hefty blow for Spurs is the loss of Palacios, who they could really use today aganist combative midfielders Nolan and Barton. Nonetheless, Spurs have far better players on the ball than Newcastle do and that really should show by the final whistle. Redknapp’s side knows they must accumulate as many points as possible before February as the UEFA Champions League games start against and Spurs have made no secret about that competition being their priority and they always tumble down the form charts domestically when they have commitments in European competition. Therefore, I expect a very determined Spurs display and in all honesty, that should be enough to see them win this game.

Approach with some caution here because if Spurs don’t control the middle of the park then I fear for their chances here. Nonetheless, everything else favours Spurs so the away win at 11/10 appeals to me today.

Team news – Newcastle United miss Carroll, Tiote, Ben Arfa, Campbell, Gosling, Ryan Taylor, Smith, and Steven Taylor whereas Tottenham Hotspur miss Huddlestone, King, O’Hara, Woodgate, Palacios, and Assou-Ekotto.

Verdict: Tottenham Hotspur to win at 11/10. 

FC Honka Espoo vs IFK Mariehamn – home win at 4/6.

I can’t write much on this Liiga Cup game, to be honest. A lot of changes have happened at each club in Finland over the break but Honka still have one of the top two sides in the country and IFK Mariehamn aren’t anywhere near as good as they were. The 4-0 win earlier this week reflected how bad Haka Valkeakoski are with their financial issues rather than IFK Mariehamn’s supremacy and that really should show today. Honka have looked decent in friendlies and have a strong record at home to IFK so they should make it count today, especially as the Liiga Cup actually means something this season whereas it hasn’t in previous seasons. This game is being played in Honka’s indoor arena rather than outside, giving Honka a real advantage in this game, and it should be an advantage that they don’t even need, in all honesty. For me, this game has a home win written all over it at decent odds.

Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win at 4/6.

Hannover 96 vs Schalke 04 – home win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Hannover 96 were utterly dominant and commanding in their 0-3 demolition of Eintracht Frankfurt lately and it’s nothing more than what I’ve come to expect from this season. True, they were aided greatly by Frankfurt’s decimated defence but Hannover 96 have massively improved this season due to them now possessing what I would argue as being one of the most deadly attacking duos in the Bundesliga with Ya Konan and Abdellaoue terrorising defences up and down Germany. As a result, Hannover 96 find themselves in second place in the table and I personally think it’s been merited. Hannover 96 are like a poor man’s BV09 Borussia Dortmund, in my view – they’ve got a lot of everything in terms of tenacity, organisation, and finesse. However, what Hannover 96 lack in the depth that Dortmund have they make up for by being stronger at the back. Either way, Hannover 96 are here to stay for the season and I really don’t think that they should be written off as I don’t see anyone below them that could pass them and steal their unexpected UEFA Champions League place off them. Hannover 96 have the capability to still be where they are at the end of this season and I hope they achieve a Champions League place too – they’ve earned it this season!

Hannover 96 have already won six out of nine home games in the Bundesliga this season, scoring an average of two goals per home game. They’ve only lost twice during that time and bring good momentum into this game. They are missing a lot of players for this game but to be honest, they’ve been missing a lot of players for the majority of this season and they’ve coped very well indeed. I don’t class any of their absentees today as particularly important so I expect a strong Hannover 96 display here.

Schalke 04 arrive in Hannover in the knowledge that this side has already beaten them 1-2 in their home ground earlier this season so they’ll most likely be cautious in this one. Unlike most clubs, the winter break did not assist Schalke 04 as they’re very much a momentum side and that break has robbed them of their momentum. They were droll and lacking in creativity against Hamburger SV in their 0-1 home defeat in their last Bundesliga game so a trip to a Hannover 96 side that they’ve lost against for two consecutive years away from home most probably won’t sit too well with the visitors. Schalke 04 have some capable players but an absence of reliablity in defence and an attack that plays well sporadically is generally a bad combination, especially when the side in question isn’t in form, so you can see why I doubt Schalke here.

Schalke have only won twice away from home in eight attempts this season, losing four times along the way. They average conceding nearly two goals per away game and scoring an average of less than a goal per away game so it’s straightforward enough to see why they struggle. The loss of important defender Uchida to the Japan squad for the Asian Cup has harmed Schalke’s already vulnerable defence even moreso and I simply cannot see how Schalke will take anything from their trip to Hannover as a result, in all honesty. Hannover look dangerous in attack, innovative, and in control – everything that Schalke don’t look at the moment. For me, the home win with draw no bet cover at 11/10 could be one of the bets of the day.

Team news – Hannover 96 miss Miller, Burmeister, Hofmann, Andreasen, Beasley, Carlitos, Ernst, Evseev, and Rama whereas Schalke 04 miss Unnerstall, Hoogland, Pachan, Sarpei, Uchida, Kenia, Pilatsikas, Stevanovic, Streit, Ibraimi, Loheider, Bo, Pourie, and Muller.

Verdict: Hannover 96 to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Modena vs Ascoli – home win at 21/20.

Simply put, Modena have impressed me a lot more than Ascoli have since returning from the winter break so I’m going to take a chance on them today.

Modena have been very strong at home this season without really turning their dominance into wins with just one defeat in eleven Serie B home games but just four wins during that time. They have no problems keeping other teams out but goalscoring is a bit of an issue for them. However, their momentum should resolve that issue as they’ve now won back-to-back games, overcoming league leaders Novara 2-1 at home and Piacenza 0-2 away from home so confidence is very high in the Modena camp currently. Modena already have the foundations for being a very solid home side and in my view, giving them momentum should make them even stronger so I’ll give them their chances today, although the missing Tamburini in defence does concern me somewhat.

Nonetheless, Ascoli have looked inept in their last two games so I’m not too concerned currently. They miss essential midfielder Sommese for this game, which is a hefty blow for them, and on the back of two disappointing defeats (2-0 at Triestina and 1-2 against Grosseto) I really don’t fancy Ascoli’s chances here. Ascoli do have an unfortunate habit of scoring against the odds but ultimately, there’s a damn good reason that they’ve lost most of their away games in Serie B this season and it’s because they cannot defend, which should aid Modena if they are feeling goal-shy today. Ascoli average conceding approximately 1.5 goals per away game and haven’t won away from home since mid-November so I don’t rate their chances here.

Ascoli have enjoyed the better of the head-to-head games with Modena in the past season or two but historically, Modena tend to win their home games against Ascoli so I’ll give them a chance today. Do approach with caution here as Modena aren’t good enough at putting the ball in the net to back them heavily but I still think there’s value on them to win at 11/10 against a highly unimpressive Ascoli team today.

Team news – Modena miss Tamburini whereas Ascoli miss Sommese.

Verdict: Modena to win at 21/20.

Atalanta Bergamo vs Varese – home win at 5/6.

No secret here – I just think Atalanta are a better team than Varese. Actually, no, fuck that – I know that Atalanta are a better side than Varese!

Varese have done very well since being promoted from Serie C and should be taken seriously. However, Atalanta are part of the elite in Serie B that are genuinely too good to be in the division; they’re not just over-achieving following promotion! Atalanta have already won eight out of eleven at home in Serie B this season whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per home game, which is a record that is bettered only by three teams. Atalanta are surprisingly strong in defence at home, concednig just seven goals in eleven home games. Atalanta are going to need that defence today too as I don’t see them scoring many against a tight and determined Varese side, especially with Rupolo and misfit Ardemagni both ruled out of this game through injury. Nonetheless, the ageless Doni supporting Atalanta’s main striker Tribocchi should be enough for Atalanta to win this one today and as they possess one of the best midfields in Serie B, I have to fancy them to win this one today.

Varese are a decent side but they’re also over-achieving and it really should show in this game. They’re not an easy side to beat, Varese, and a 3-0 win against Torino last match gives them great momentum ahead of this tie. However, they’re simply not as good as the likes of Atalanta so I’m very surprised that the odds on the home win today are as generous as they are. Varese’s away record is pretty good at the moment but if you take into consideration that they’ve yet to face Siena, Livorno, or Atalanta away from home, you can see that their away record may not truly reflect the way that things actually are.

Don’t get me wrong here – I do think Varese are tenacious enough to give Atalanta a tough game here. However, Atalanta are simply a better side, especially so in front of goal and that really should show by the end of the game. I’m a bit concerned that Atalanta are a team of hotheads who tend to get men sent off if they’re not playing well but from a quality perspective, 5/6 is too generous on the home win here so that’s my call today.

Team news – Atalanta Bergamo miss Manfredini, Raimondi, Rupolo, and Ardemagni.

Verdict: Atalanta Bergamo to win at 5/6.

Willem II vs Vitesse Arnhem – away win at 11/10.

I really, really, like this bet today and yet I know it’s a fairly dangerous one!

For a change, the league table doesn’t lie; Willem II are actually as bad as the Eredivisie table portrays them to be. They’ve not won any Eredivisie games this season and they’ve lost seven out of nine on their own turf already so relegation to the Eerste Divisie already looks a foregone conclusion, to be honest. They do score the odd goal but possessing an average of conceding nearly three goals per home game is understandably doing them a lot of damage and that should really continue today. They miss number one goalkeeper Maenpaa from Finland for this game, important Swedish defender Landgren, and their two best strikers Rigters and Sheotahul for this game so if you thought that times couldn’t get any worse for Willem II then you’d be wrong! Literally all that favours Willem II in this game is their head-to-head record but I fancy that to change today given the sheer absence of quality and essential players for Willem II.

Visitors Vitesse Arnhem are a bit unluckier than Willem II, in my view. Don’t get me wrong – they’re not bottom of the table – but what I mean is that they play much better football and generally don’t get the accolades that they deserve for it. Stevanovic is really a very talented playmaker that Vitesse have done very well to hang onto for all these years and now that he has Serbian midfielder Matic to partner him, Vitesse have looked pretty strong in the middle of the park. The acquisition of Norwegian prodigy Pedersen was an inspired one although injuries have stopped him from scoring as many goals as Vitesse would have liked him to this season. Nonetheless, he’s available today and no doubt keen to improve on that record but he’ll have to battle with ex-Barcelona attacker Haruna Babangida, who has signed for Vitesse Arnhem very recently indeed. The Nigerian is a very pacey attacker and has no doubt been signed to be used to make Vitesse’s counter-attacks more dangerous and I think it’s quite a clever move, in all honesty – Vitesse do need more going forwards as it’s their weakest area. Vitesse are aware of that, however, hence them also signing attacking midfielder Jordi from Swansea City to bolster their attack. They’ve also brought in Barcelona academy product Riverola in midfield and Japanese centre-back Yasuda as Vitesse look to strengthen their squad all over the place and that to me indicates the strength of their desire to stay in the division. I think Albert Ferrer has made some astute signings and got this side playing very good football, not to mention using his Barcelona contacts to sign a few talented Spanish players so his appointment as Vitesse manager has impressed me a lot – this side genuinely looks to be going places.

For me, these two sides are polar opposites despite just two places being between them in the Eredivisie table. I think this is another case of the table not telling the full story as Willem II look condemned to relegation whereas Vitesse aren’t far off a UEFA Europa League push, albeit for next season! Vitesse play some very good football and if they take their chances here then they really should win this game comfortably. Even if they don’t play at their absolute best – the number of important players that Willem II are missing makes anything longer than 8/11 on Vitesse winning this game a very good price indeed, in my humble opinion.

Team news – Willem II miss Landgren, Maenpaa, Sheotahul, Lima, Wojciechowski, and Rigters.

Verdict: Vitesse Arnhem to win at 11/10.

Pacos de Ferreira vs Uniao de Leiria – home win at 11/10.

I don’t know what Rui Vitoria said to his players at the start of January 2011 but Pacos de Ferreira have raced out of the traps and are currently one of the most in-form sides in Portugal. Despite being a defensive unit that don’t travel well in general, Pacos de Ferreira have played four consecutive away games in January and have won three of them, scoring nine times along the way, which is highly impressive for a side that generally finds it hard to score nine goals per season. Nonetheless, Pacos are playing very well and taking their chances – what more can you ask from a team? They’ve won at Sporting Clube de Lisboa and Sporting Braga in their last two away games, both ending 2-3, so why not take a chance on Pacos de Ferreira in their own backyard, where they’re at their strongest? They’re scoring goals for fun and bring tremendous confidence into this game as a result so I really fancy a strong display from the hosts today.

It also helps that Leiria are finally plummeting back down to where they belong in the Liga Sagres after a good start to the season. The sale of star striker Carlao has damaged them irreperably and they look completely shattered as a unit, especially with experienced midfielder Silas having left the club too. Leiria were destroyed 0-3 at home by SL Benfica before suffering an identical fate at home to newly-promoted Beira-Mar so the side is demoralised and also not scoring goals or defending competently, which is a terrible combination. The goalscoring duty now rests solely with N’Gal, who is more of a playmaking attacker than a goalscorer so you can see why I’m concerned for Leiria. They have young Chinese striker Zhang, who has demonstrated some potential this season but is unavailable for this game, as is important and experienced centre-back Jose Antonio. Bluntly, Leiria are rapidly beginning to run out of numbers, not to mention confidence, so I really don’t rate their chances here against in-form Pacos de Ferreira.

Pacos de Ferreira haven’t beaten Uniao de Leiria for a while but they won’t get a better chance than the game today to rectify that, in my view. Pacos are in-form whereas their opponents look shell-shocked. Leiria’s signing of Iturra (even if only on loan) was an inspired move but balancing the books by selling two good players makes it seem somewhat pointless. I’m sure Iturra will end up signing for Porto or SL Benfica as long as he stops getting sent off for no reason (usually when playing in South America) because he’s a good central midfielder. However, in regards to today’s game, he’s simply not what Leiria need so I envision them struggling in this game. As long as Pacos de Ferreira take their chances today as they have done in recent weeks then 11/10 on the home win looks decent value to me today.

Team news – Pacos de Ferreira miss Caetano, Jorginho, Bura, Carlos Renan, Jorginho Sousa, and Alvarinho whereas Uniao de Leiria miss Jose Antonio and Zhang.

Verdict: Pacos de Ferreira to win at 11/10.

Accumulator fodder:

Argentina U20, Racing Genk, Manchester United, Arsenal, Middlesbrough, Bayern Munich, AEK Athens, Palermo, AS Roma, Barcelona, Trabzonspor.

Recommended bets:

Hannover 96 DNB, Racing Genk, and Barcelona at 3/1.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Asian Cup:

Australia vs Iraq (7) 2-0
Iran vs South Korea (6) 1-1

Copa Sudamericano U20:

Argentina vs Venezuela (8) -1.5 handicap
Chile vs Uruguay (6) 2-1

Australian A-League:

Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne Heart (6) 1-1
Gold Coast United vs Newcastle Jets (6) 2-1

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Racing Genk vs Kortrijk (8) -1.5 handicap
Germinal Beerschot vs Zulte-Waregem (6) 0-1
Charleroi vs Mechelen (5) 1-0
Westerlo vs Sint-Truiden (6) 1-0
Cercle Brugge vs Lierse SK (7) 2-0

Cypriot Division 1:

Enosis Neon Paralimni vs Ermis (5) 1-0
A.E.Paphos vs Olympiakos Nicosia (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Omonia Nicosia vs APOEL Nicosia (5) 0-1, draw no bet, at least one red card in this game
Doxa vs Ethnikos Achnas (5) over 2.5 goals

English Premier League:

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Liverpool (5) 1-1
Arsenal vs Wigan Athletic (8) 2-0
Blackpool vs Sunderland (4) 2-2
Everton vs West Ham United (7) 2-0
Fulham vs Stoke City (5) 1-1
Manchester United vs Bimingham City (8) 2-0
Newcastle United vs Tottenham Hotspur (6) 1-2
Aston Villa vs Manchester City (6) over 2.5 goals

English Championship:

Derby County vs Nottingham Forest (6) at least one red card in this game
Portsmouth vs Leeds United (5)
Crystal Palace vs Bristol City (5) over 2.5 goals
Ipswich Town vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
Reading vs Hull City (5) both sides to score
Sheffield United vs Norwich City (6)
Middlesbrough vs Preston North End (8)
Cardiff City vs Watford (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Leicester City vs Millwall (7)
Barnsley vs Swansea City (5)
Scunthorpe United vs Burnley (4) draw no bet

English League One:

Tranmere Rovers vs Southampton (6)
Yeovil Town vs Rochdale (6) both sides to score
Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion (5)
Exeter City vs Walsall (6) over 2.5 goals
Charlton Athletic vs Plymouth Argyle (4)
Huddersfield Town vs Colchester United (6) over 2.5 goals
Oldham Athletic vs Brentford (5)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Milton Keynes Dons (5) over 2.5 goals
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town (6)
Leyton Orient vs Sheffield Wednesday (4) over 2.5 goals
Peterborough United vs Hartlepool United (7)
Notts County vs Carlisle United (6)

English League Two:

Stevenage vs Morecambe (6)
Bradford City vs Burton Albion (4)
Accrington Stanley vs Hereford United (6)
Aldershot Town vs Crewe Alexandra (4) draw no bet
Torquay United vs Gillingham (5)
Macclesfield Town vs Barnet (5)
Stockport County vs Lincoln City (6)
Shrewsbury Town vs Chesterfield (5) draw no bet
Wycombe Wanderers vs Rotherham United (6)
Port Vale vs Cheltenham Town (6)
Northampton Town vs Oxford United (5)

Finnish Liiga Cup:

FC Honka Espoo vs IFK Mariehamn (7) 2-0

French Ligue 1:

Racing Club Lens vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (6) 2-1

German Bundesliga:

Hannover 96 vs Schalke 04 (6) 2-1, draw no bet
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart (8) over 2.5 goals
Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg (5) 1-0
SC Freiburg vs Nurnberg (4) 1-1
Bayern Munich vs Kaiserslautern (8) over 2.5 goals
Koln vs Werder Bremen (5) both sides to score

German Bundesliga 2:

Energie Cottbus vs Arminia Bielefeld (6) over 2.5 goals
Alemannia Aachen vs Karlsruher SC (6)

Greek Super League:

Kerkyra vs Larissa (5) 1-1
PAOK Salonika vs Xanthi (7) 1-0
AEK Athens vs Olympiakos Volos (8) 2-0

Italian Serie A:

Palermo vs Brescia (8) 2-0
Parma vs Catania (5) both sides to score
AS Roma vs Cagliari (8) 2-1

Italian Serie B:

Modena vs Ascoli (6)
Torino vs Cittadella (7)
Padova vs Crotone (6) under 2.5 goals
Pescara vs Empoli (5) draw no bet
Frosinone vs Piacenza (6)
Grosseto vs Sassuolo (6) over 2.5 goals
Reggina vs Siena (5) draw no bet
Atalanta Bergamo vs Varese (7) over 2.5 goals
Portosummaga vs Vicenza (6)

Mexican Primera Division:

Cruz Azul vs Pumas UNAM (7) 2-0
Queretaro vs Morelia (6) 1-0
Monterrey vs Atlante (6) 2-1
Santos Laguna vs Pachuca (7) 1-1
Guadalajara vs San Luis (5) 0-0

Dutch Eredivisie:

Heracles Almelo vs AZ Alkmaar (4) 2-1, draw no bet
NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda (7) over 2.5 goals
Willem II vs Vitesse Arnhem (6) 1-2
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs De Graafschap (6) over 2.5 goals

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Pacos de Ferreira vs Uniao de Leiria (7) 1-0
Olhanense vs Academica de Coimbra (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Setubal (5) 2-1
Rio Ave vs Vitoria Guimaraes (5) 1-1
Beira-Mar vs Porto (8) 0-2
Naval de Maio vs Portimonense (6) 1-1
SL Benfica vs CD Nacional de Madeira (6) 1-0

Scottish Premier League:

Hearts vs Rangers (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Celtic vs Aberdeen (7) 2-1
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Hamilton Academicals (6) under 2.5 goals
Kilmarnock vs Dundee United (5) 2-1
Motherwell vs Hibernian (6) 1-1
St.Johnstone vs St.Mirren (5) 1-0

Spanish Primera Liga:

Sevilla CF vs Levante (6) over 2.5 goals
Barcelona vs Racing Santander (9) -1.5 handicap
Valencia CF vs Malaga (7) both sides to score

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Alcorcon vs Real Valladolid (5) draw no bet
Granada vs Recreativo de Huelva (5) under 2.5 goals
Villarreal II vs Real Betis Balompie (6) draw no bet
Huesca vs Albacete (7)
Barcelona II vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (6)
Cartagena vs Celta de Vigo (6)

Turkish Super Lig:

Manisaspor vs Karabukspor (6) 1-0
Trabzonspor vs Ankaragucu (8) under 2.5 goals
Genclerbirligi vs Eskisehirspor (5) 1-1
Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahce (6) 1-2

Enjoy your free betting tips!

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