Blackpool vs West Bromwich Albion
FreeToday’s featured game sees us make a rare forage into the English Premier League for the game in northern England between Blackpool and West Bromwich Albion. I don’t often tip English games because value is scare at best but I do think there’s value on the goals front tonight between two newly-promoted sides.
Blackpool have set about making a name for themselves in the English Premier League since being promoted and I personally think they’ve done it well. Manager Ian Holloway is a very no-nonsense, down-to-earth character and it stands to reason that his teams follow suit. Realistically, Blackpool are not a good enough side to even be in the Premier League, let alone coping in it. However, their untouchable tenacity, tremendous belief, and excellent manager gives them a good chance against any side in this division, especially at Bloomfield Road. Blackpool were very much a home side in the Championship last year and are seeking to do the same this year. They’ve played well at home too, being rather unlucky in the games that haven’t gone their way. It has to be said that they’ve given every side that’s come to face them in Blackpool a very good game, however, and I don’t see that changing tonight. My problem with Blackpool is that although I admire their drive and tenacity, they still do lack a lot of quality, especially in defence and that tends to haunt them by the end of most games. Blackpool have little trouble in scoring with their relentless attacking football but defending is not something they’re particularly good at, hence their league placing. Blackpool have only kept two clean sheets in ten consecutive games and both of those were away from home against poor sides. Nine out of those ten games have gone over 2.5 goals, which emphasises the points I’ve made above, and I’d be surprised to see anything but the same happen tonight.
Visitors West Bromwich Albion currently claim a lofty sixth place in the English Premier League table thanks to some enthusiastic displays and fantastic football. Former Italian international midfielder Roberto di Matteo enforces his side to play good football and they certainly obey his command. Amusingly, a win tonight would put West Bromwich Albion in a UEFA Champions League place and I’m sure they’d like that, if only temporarily! Much like their hosts Blackpool, West Bromwich Albion play a very attacking game although they defend better than their hosts and generally possess better players. West Brom’s problem was always actually taking the chances that they create but they appear to have found a solution to that problem with Nigerian striker Peter Odemwingie, who has been one of the signings of the season so far. He’s really livened up the West Brom attack and they’ve reaped the benefits of it. Sadly, Odemwingie will not feature tonight as he’s injured but that didn’t prove to be a problem for the visitors when they travelled to Arsenal and won 2-3 or when they travelled to Manchester United and drew 2-2 so I’m not overly concerned here. I tend to find that West Brom’s defence is quite good too, all things considered – they’ve leaked eleven goals in four away games this season, which looks rather daunting. However, let’s consider that those four away games were against Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United, and Liverpool and then consider that the only game they deserved to lose was against Chelsea and suddenly it’s not so horrendous. West Brom had a potentially tough game at Leicester City mid-week as the hosts were keen to impress new manager Sven-Goran Eriksson but West Brom were not fazed and strolled to a 1-4 victory. West Brom are now unbeaten for eight consecutive games and they’ve won five of them so to say that they’re playing well is something of an understatement. Had they not been missing some key players for this game then I’d have cast an eye to the away win but as it stands, I’ll take the overs market as West Brom have gone over 2.5 goals in six out of their last seven games.
I expect quite a substantial amount of people to be sucked into the away win here but I’d emphasise caution if doing that due to West Brom’s absentees and the brick wall that the hosts put up in each home game that opponents find it very hard to break down. The market for over 2.5 goals interests me a lot, however. Neither side sit back and defend – both go gung-ho in attack and I expect both sides to score at least once here. Over 2.5 goals is a fairly obvious call but I think it’s priced far too generously at 4/5 so that’s my call for this game.
Team news – Blackpool miss Almond, Rachubka, Clarke, Adam, and Baptiste for this game although I’d only consider the latter two as important missings. West Brom miss Fortune, Odemwingie, Morrison, and Olsson, all of which are rather substantial losses and would certainly impact any bets I’d make regarding West Brom winning a game but I’m on the goals bet here so I’m not too concerned – missing Olsson from defence should make it easier for Blackpool to score so it could even assist my bet!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Chernomorets Burgas vs Minior Pernik – under 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Chernomorets Burgas have one of their strongest sides in years and are a nightmare to face for all A PFG opponents because they simply don’t concede goals. Their unadventurous style leaves them rather short on the goalscoring front, however, which is clearly visible from their record of seven goals being scored in six home games this season. They’re the lowest scoring side in the top half of the table with an average of a goal scored per game but boast the best defensive record in the division by a mile with an average of just under a goal being conceded per every two games. The only sides to score at Chernomorets this season were three of the Sofia clubs – giants Levski, Lokomotiv, and Slavia – so Pernik are going to have to do an awful lot to score here. You’ve probably already gathered that I don’t expect Chernomorets to concede here so the question is how many will they score? Pernik’s defence has been bad enough to reserve them a place at the bottom of the A PFG table with an average of over two goals conceded per game. They’ve lost five out of six on the road and average conceding over two goals per away game too so they don’t appear to be too keen on helping me out with my tip today! They’ve become a little more composed of late, however, with two consecutive away games going under 2.5 goals and a 1-1 draw at Pirin Blagoevgrad securing their first point on the road this season. The visitors should take some consolation from the above and I do too in respect of the above bet so I think there’s a better chance of this game going under 2.5 goals than the bookies do for this one so my call is under 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav – home win at 23/20.
Although they had a quiet start to their Gambrinus Liga campaign, Jablonec are gradually easing back into their “groove” and especially so at home. They’ve won five out of seven at home this season and the only side to violate that record was a massively in-form Viktoria Plzen side so Jablonec are very much the side to beat at home. What I like about Jablonec is their consistent level of potency in front of goal with an average of over three goals scored per home game. Impressively, Jablonec manage to maintain a solid defence at the same time so it’s easy to see why Jablonec are considered such a force nowadays. I’m not entirely sure why a good striker like Tomas Pekhart would want to remain in the Czech Republic when he could easily have moved to a big club after he left Tottenham Hotspur (i.e. fellow countryman Tomas Necid’s move to CSKA Moscow) and improved his game but instead he elected to return to the Czech Republic. For me, he’s one of the top strikers in the division and eight goals in twelve games certainly supports that theory. Jablonec’s 4-3-3 with Pekhart, Lafata, and Vosahlik forming the attacking threesome is deadly on its day and Jablonec have the necessary experience behind them to maintain composure at all times, which can be vital as both Pekhart and Vosahlik are still youngsters. It was surprising to see Jablonec lose 4-2 mid-week in the Pohar CMFS but their away form this season has been shocking so perhaps it’s not so unexpected. Jablonec excel at home and did so against Mlada Boleslav here last year too and they’ve interestingly beaten Mlada Boleslav for three consecutive meetings at either ground now – let’s hope today is their fourth!
Visitors Mlada Boleslav are actually a very similar side to Jablonec, in my opinion. Both attack expertly when playing at home but are droll and uninterested on the road. Mlada also suffered an embarrassing cup defeat mid-week at Banik Sokolov, thus proving the above point about Mlada’s inability to play well on the road. Mlada are generally a very attacking side but they become a very defensive unit away from home and thus rarely score goals. That approach will play right into Jablonec’s hands – that’s what Jablonec do best, breaking solid sides down. If Mlada played their open game against Jablonec then I reckon we’d see a great game here with plenty of goals but Mlada haven’t done that so far this season on the road so I don’t see why they’d start today against a very good host. I admire Mlada’s options in attack but I have to say that their lack of a dominant striker does concern me. I mean, Kulic has the experience, Bulut has the potential, and Taborsky has been around but none of them are prolific and I feel that Mlada suffer in games like this without a dominant striker because chances are going to be minimal instead of vast like they are at home because of a tactical change and thus we have a Mlada side with the inability to win on the road. The only two away games that Mlada have won on the road in nine attempts so far this season was the trip to newly-promoted Usti nad Labem and the game at Trutnov in the cup – it’s not an impressive list, to be blunt! Mlada’s defence can be solid on the road but I don’t envision them keeping Jablonec out here – they’ve not done so for three consecutive visits and I doubt they will this time.
All in all, this has the potential to be a very exciting game but chances are that it will fizzle out into a boring, low-scoring game – just like usual! Under 2.5 goals here interested me, I have to say, but I think the odds on the home win show a little more value here thanks to Mlada Boleslav’s unadventurous manner on the road. Jablonec should set about them rather well and ultimately make it count by winning the game. Expect a droll game and give a thought to the HT/FT Draw/HW market as it should take Jablonec a while to break Mlada Boleslav down. Either way, the home win interests me today.
Verdict: Jablonec to win at 23/20.
Nordsjaelland vs OB Odense – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Just a few days after Nordsjaelland won at Odense in the Landspokal Cup, the two meet again at Nordsjaelland. Backing the hosts to win this one at 8/5 would seem a gift but I’m really rather uneasy about that idea. Why? Well, aside from that Odense are by far the better of the two sides, Nordsjaelland’s Arsenal-esque style doesn’t often leave them in a strong position scoring-wise as they don’t take their chances enough. They’re good enough to keep sides out and take wins against lesser sides but against a sleeping giant OB Odense? I just don’t fancy it. Of course, you can point out that OB have a tough game with Young Boys Bern in a few days time or that they’ve been in atrocious form defensively since the saga with their manager leaving but I’m still not convinced that Nordsjaelland will take their chances sufficiently enough for them to win this game, although they really should given the perilous state that OB are in. OB are still scoring goals but their defending is atrocious – they’ve shipped fourteen goals in four games and it’s just not good enough. They’ve lost back-to-back home games against SonderjyskE and Nordsjaelland respectively, which is totally unacceptable for the supposed title challengers, and it’s entirely because they have forgotten how to defend. Rather than lament for OB Odense, however, I’d much prefer to capitalise upon it financially.
Two out of the last three games between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals. OB’s last ten consecutive games have all gone over 2.5 goals. The only time an OB away game in the Superligaen hasn’t gone over 2.5 goals this season was their trip to newly-promoted Horsens in an abject display where OB didn’t score at all, which tells you how uncharacteristically they performed. Four out of Nordsjaelland’s six Superligaen home games this season have gone over 2.5 goals and this one should too, really. I think the odds are too generous on this selection today so my call is over 2.5 goals.
Incidentally, before you get any crazy ideas about backing the home win here – as possible as it unquestionably is, please bear in mind that this Nordsjaelland side have lost at home to SonderjyskE and an out-of-form Brondby side in recent times and bet with caution!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Rapid Bucharest vs Pandurii Targu Jiu – over 2.5 goals at evens.
You may recall a recent preview that I wrote concerning Pandurii and their horrible defensive tactics. Well, scrap that – they’ve got a new manager now and one that has a proven track record of playing attacking football. The bad news is that this is a game where Pandurii need their defensive tactics because if you attack Rapid Bucharest or attempt to engage them in a feast of open play then you’ll lose, simply put. The only side in the Liga that can outscore them is Dinamo Bucharest because Rapid have a tremendous attacking arsenal with Brazilian trio Cassio, Spadaracio, and Cesinha doing a lot of damage to opposing sides, especially with midfielder general Herea in such glistening form. I’ve no doubts over Rapid’s ability to score goals; I’m perfectly fine with their contribution to this bet. Will Pandurii join the party and score too? It’s a bit unlikely but hopefully they do. Rapid can score three in this game but will they? That’s up to them, I suppose! They’ve drubbed Astra Ploiesti 3-0 and Victoria Branesti 7-1 in their last two home games in the Liga so I’m going to ride the momentum wave and say that they’ll blow Pandurii away today as I expect Pandurii to attack Rapid, which is frankly suicidal. Therefore, my call is for over 2.5 goals at generous odds of evens as the odds on the home win serve as little more than accumulator fodder.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Aarau vs Servette – away win at 21/20.
I’ve been burned a couple of times by backing Servette away from home this season as they randomly haven’t turned up but I’ll give them another shot today. Although Lugano and Lausanne Sports respectively take the plaudits for the best sides in the Challenge League, Servette are certainly very close behind them in my eyes and they’ve generally demonstrated that well this season, especially at home. That said, Servette to average scoring two goals per away game currently so they are capable on the road; it’s merely a matter of finding the right opponent for them – cue Aarau! Aarau were relegated from the Super League last season but aren’t playing particularly well because the majority of their good players naturally moved on and Aarau have replaced them with youngsters en mass. Aarau are still comfortably a mid-table Challenge League side but they shouldn’t be able to stand up against a good Servette side today. Servette’s display hinge entirely on their Brazilian twosome of striker Eudis and midfielder Antonio De Azevedo so it’s no surprise that those two are at the top of Servette’s goalscoring charts at the present time when Servette are playing so well! Servette have played twice since the international break, annihlating Baulmes 2-5 on the road in the Schweizer Pokal and destroying little Locarno 4-1 at home last week. Servette therefore bring good momentum into this game whereas hosts Aarau enter this game on the back of two consecutive home defeats, one of which was against SC Kriens in the Schweizer Pokal and the other was against Wil last week. What is blatantly obvious about this current Aarau side is that they cannot defend and against a very potent Servette side, that simply doesn’t bode well. I expect a lot of goals in this game but the majority should be scored by Servette so my call is the away win at 21/20 as it’s slightly generously priced.
Verdict: Servette to win at 21/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Chernomorets Burgas, Rapid Bucharest.
Recommended bets:
Jablonec and Rapid Bucharest at 2/1.
Blackpool vs West Bromwich Albion and Rapid Bucharest vs Pandurii Targu Jiu – both games to go over 2.5 goals at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Bulgarian A PFG:
Chernomorets Burgas vs Minior Pernik (8) under 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
Alki vs APOP/Kinyras (4) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav (6) 2-1
Danish Superligaen:
Nordsjaelland vs OB Odense (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
English Premier League:
Blackpool vs West Bromwich Albion (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
French Ligue 2:
Tours vs Chateauroux (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs MSV Duisburg (5)
Italian Serie B:
Sassuolo vs Siena (5) under 2.5 goals
Torino vs Ascoli (5)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Helmond Sport vs Volendam (6)
Peruvian Primera Division:
Alianza Lima vs Jose Galvez (4) 1-1
Universidad San Martin vs Sporting Cristal (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Portimonense (6) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Cluj vs Astra Ploiesti (6) 1-1
Unirea Urziceni vs Universitatea Craiova (4) under 2.5 goals
Rapid Bucharest vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (8) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Mallorca vs Levante (4) 1-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Brommapojkarna vs Malmo (7) 1-2
Orebro vs IFK Goteborg (5) 1-1
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Atvidaberg (3) 1-2, draw no bet
Swiss Challenge League:
Aarau vs Servette (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor (7) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!