Bolivar La Paz vs Estudiantes De La Plata
FreeToday sees the return of the Meistriliiga, which is the Estonian Premier League. This will seem of mass insignificance to the vast majority of you but it’s one of my favourite leagues – not due to the quality of the league but the reliability of the results. Saying that, it’ll probably all go tits-up today but still – keep an eye on it for accumulator fodder and value – bookies don’t monitor this league very well!
Today’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores game between Bolivar La Paz and Estudiantes De La Plata. The Bolivians have already lost two Copa Libertadores games and simply aren’t good enough to do any damage in this competition. Visitors Estudiantes De La Plata are in a bit of sporadic form currently but their overall ability is unquestionable so it should be an interesting game at high altitude.
Bolivar La Paz have already lost their two Copa Libertadores games this season, conceding five goals and scoring just once. They lost 2-0 at Juan Aurich, which is fairly respectable considering how bad Bolivian sides are on the road, but have also lost 3-1 at home to Alianza Lima, where Bolivar are supposed to be strongest. Home advantage is all that Bolivar have over other sides when playing in this competition but even that isn’t serving them well currently due to atrocious defending. Bolivar will be happy that their domestic campaign started since their last Copa Libertadores game, giving them additional match practice, in which they won at Jorge Wilstermann. Bolivar have a very tough game tonight, however, as they host last year’s Copa Libertadores runners-up.
Estudiantes De La Plata are a bit frustrating at the moment, aren’t they? They’ve lost at home to Argentinos Juniors and away to Alianza Lima of late, two rather surprising results, and yet have annihlated Juan Aurich and San Lorenzo de Almagro already this season so what to make of them? Their ability is unquestionable; their reliability has become dubious. Estudiantes’ problem of late appears to be a combination of two things – goal-shy displays and over-confidence. One thing is certain, however – they take this competition very seriously and will look to win this game for sure. The altitude is a real test for them as their last test in Peru saw them battered 4-1. However, Juan Aurich are at least a competent side – Bolivar La Paz are not. Estudiantes need a game where they can unlreash their pent-up goal rush that is building inside them, much like Lanus at Blooming Santa Cruz in Bolivia of late, so this could well be the catalyst for Estudiantes to starting playing well again.
Betting against the altitude always leaves me wary so do approach this game with caution. However, I can’t ignore the fact that Estudiantes are at least five times better than Bolivar La Paz – there’s such a gulf here. Estudiantes lost their only away game in the Copa Libertadores this season convincingly – they walked into the game over-confidently and underestimated their opponents. I don’t envision the same mistake today against much lesser opponents, opponents that have already lost at home to an average side this season. Estudiantes are far too good for Bolivar to deal with and odds of this calibre are worth taking in my opinion.
Verdict: Estudiantes De La Plata to win at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Jeonbuk Motors vs Kashima Antlers – away win at 29/20.
I’m basing this bet on two things because it’s difficult to call the early stages of the Asian Champions League with such contrast in leagues, styles, and even geographically. My factors are simple: experience and ability.
Jeonbuk Motors are a South Korean side who enter this competition for the first time in three years and they didn’t leave a lasting impression then, winning just two of their six group games, one of which was against a fellow South Korean side. They’ve won their opening game in this year’s Asian Champions League but frankly any side that cannot beat an Indonesian side in this competition needs serious assistance due to the severe contrast in leagues. South Korean football is definitely on the up and they’ll be up for this game for rivalry reasons due to the visitors being Japanese. However, the hosts are somewhat inexperienced in this competition after years of being out of it and I suspect it might show today.
Kashima Antlers are one of Japan’s biggest and best clubs. They’re playing in this competition for the third season in a row as a result and are looking to further their reputation as one of the better sides in it. They breezed through the group stage last season and were unlucky to be knocked out by Seoul in the following round after drawing 2-2 and going out on penalties despite playing with ten men for a good portion of the game. Kashima Antlers will no doubt have that in mind as they travel to face another South Korean side today and it may even spur them on a little. Kashima Antlers are a very good side with a lot of experience and even bring some momentum into this game after beating title rivals Urawa Red Diamonds in the J-League at weekend so the visitors do have a good chance today.
South Korean and Japanese clubs naturally have a big rivalry for obvious reasons so they usually produce good games to watch for varying reasons. However, Kashima Antlers are simply a better side than Jeonbuk Motors. Neither side will lie down for this game so I expect a lot of goals but I also expect the experience and ability of Kashima Antlers to win them the game at rather generous odds for a proven side in this tournament.
Verdict: Kashima Antlers to win at 29/20.
Notts County vs Chesterfield – home win at 4/5.
Notts County have won their last three games consecutively, including a difficult but convincing 3-0 win at Accrington Stanley. Notts County are now unbeaten in five League Two games and are well on their way to building up a superb burst of momentum. Notts County are the second-highest goalscoring side in the division so backing them always has that extra reassurance. Notts County have already won nine out of fifteen home games this season, losing just once along the way, so they’re a strong side at home. Notts County have rattled in nine goals in their last three games without conceding a goal so they’re absolutely on fire at the moment. They average scoring over two goals per home game and boast the best defensive home record in the division by averaging conceding a goal ever 1.5 games. Ultimately, the wealthy Notts County are looking very good for this game for various reasons and stand a good chance of taking three points tonight.
Visitors Chesterfield had their excellent run of form brought to an abrupt halt by Aldershot Town lately. They recovered well by winning at Cheltenham Town last match but their momentum was interrupted so they’re not looking as menacing as they had been prior to their defeat. Chestefield’s massive strength is their dominant home form with their Achilles heel being their haphazard away form. Chesterfield have already lost eight out of seventeen away games in League Two this season and are one of just two sides in the top eight of League Two to have conceded more than they’ve scored on the road. That kind of record isn’t one to take to an in-form and potent Notts County so I think they’re going to struggle tonight>
Both of these sides are very capable at either ground irrespective of Chesterfield’s relatively poor away form so it’ll be interesting to see what occurs. However, with the irresistable form of Notts County at the moment and the unreliable nature of Chesterfield on the road, you have to feel that there’s value in backing the moneybags Notts County tonight!
Verdict: Notts County to win at 4/5.
Sillamae Kalev vs Flora Tallinn – away win at 9/5.
These odds intrigue me. Sillamae Kalev had a very good Meistriliiga campaign last season but they’re not a better side than Flora Tallinn irrespective of whether they finished above them or not. Estonia is about two teams – Flora Tallinn and Levadia Tallinn. I won’t deny that Flora Tallinn have weakened in ability of late but they’re still the second-strongest club in Estonia so this game certainly has my attention.
It’ll be interesting to see how Sillamae Kalev deal with the pressure of being expected to do well this season especially as I don’t consider them to be a particularly good side – perhaps on par with the likes of Trans Narva or even Nomme Kalju. Sillamae Kalev won twelve out of eighteen home games in the Meistriliiga last season so they’re certainly a force to be reckoned with. However, I don’t believe in one-off glory like Sillamae Kalev until it’s proven consistently. I believe that Sillamae Kalev’s home record against Flora Tallinn reveals a lot more with four home games against Flora Tallinn having resulted in three convincing away wins and one fortune home win. Flora Tallinn have won seven out of ther last eight meetings with Sillamae Kalev at either ground and are a bigger and better side so it’ll be interesting to see how well the bookies have looked at this game.
Flora Tallinn lost the Estonian Super Cup against Levadia Tallinn a few days ago and they won’t like that but competitive match experience is competitive match experience so at least Flora Tallinn have something to bring into this game. The gap between Levadia and Flora is increasing each season with Levadia Tallinn now the unquestionable giants of this league. However, Flora very much remain the second biggest side and I can’t see that changing due to just one good season for Sillamae Kalev and one below-par season for Flora Tallinn. Although I think Sillamae Kalev will give Flora Tallinn a good game today, I find it hard to overlook odds of 9/5 for the better side to win any game!
Verdict: Flora Tallinn to win at 9/5.
Bala Town vs Newtown – lay Bala Town at 10/11.
Bala Town have now lost two games consecutively so their momentum has taken a sizeable dent. They were facing two of Wales’ top three sides so their defeats are very much understandable for the newly-promoted outfit. However, good runs can’t last forever and Bala Town’s has certainly been punctured lately so it’ll be interesting to see how they react to that. The problem I have with Bala Town is that they don’t score enough goals. Despite their defensively assured displays, they just don’t score enough so when their luck does go against them, they’re going to find it hard to pull themselves out of the mire again. That’s what I’m banking on occurring tonight against Newtown so I find it hard to believe that Bala Town will win the game.
Newtown are some way down the table but this is a little misleading in some ways. They’re in thirteenth place due to their shoddy defensive displays and that certainly is a concern ahead of a complicated trip to Bala Town. However, let’s not gloss over the fact that Newtown are good goalscorers on the road when measured up against their actual away form with an average of approximately 1.5 goals scored per away game. Newtown are more experienced in this division than Bala Town are and that could count against the hosts tonight. Let’s also not overlook the fact that Newtown have won two out of their last three away games with their only defeat being against one of the big three in Wales and yet they still managed to score twice. Newtown have notched up six goals in three away games so they’re not to be underestimated tonight.
Ultimately, I don’t rate a previously driven Bala Town that has suffered a couple of heavy reality checks in recent times against an experienced Newtown side that score a good amount of goals on the road and a Newtown side that are playing well away from home currently. The odds on Bala Town surprise me tonight considering they’ve won less than half of their home games this season so I do like the look of laying them tonight.
Verdict: Lay Bala Town at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
Arsenal, Changchun Yatai, Bury, Queens Park Rangers, Nomme Kalju, Levadia Tallinn, Tampere United, Rangers, Tampines Rovers, Llanelli
Recommended bets:
Arsenal, West Bromwich Albion, Notts County, Bury, and Queens Park Rangers at 9/1.
Levadia Tallinn, Flora Tallinn, and Nomme Kalju at 6/1.
Estudiantes De La Plata, Rangers, Tampines Rovers, and Llanelli at 6/1.
Changchun Yatai, Kawasaki Frontale, Esteghlal, and Al Ittihad at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Fiorentina vs Bayern Munich (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Arsenal vs Porto (8) over 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Racing Club Montevideo vs Cerro Porteno (5) 1-1
Bolivar La Paz vs Estudiantes De La Plata (7) over 2.5 goals
Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Deportivo Cuenca vs Morelia (6) under 2.5 goals
Asian Champions League:
Chanchun Yatai vs Persipura Jayapura (9) -1.75 handicap
Melbourne Victory vs Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma (6) 1-1
Kawasaki Frontale vs Beijing Guoan (8) over 2.5 goals
Jeonbuk Motors vs Kashima Antlers (6) 1-2
Esteghlal vs Al Jazira (8) 2-0
Al Wahda vs Bunyodkor (5) 1-1
Al Gharafa vs Al Ahli (6) 1-1
Al Ittihad vs Zob Ahan (7) 2-1
English Premier league:
Sunderland vs Bolton Wanderers (7) 0-0
Portsmouth vs Birmingham City (5) 1-0
English Championship:
Peterborough United vs Sheffield United (6)
Preston North End vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
Watford vs Swansea City (7)
Ipswich Town vs Cardiff City (6)
West Bromwich Albion vs Sheffield Wednesday (7) over 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace vs Bristol City (6)
Queens Park Rangers vs Plymouth Argyle (8)
English League One:
Tranmere Rovers vs Leeds United (6)
Carlisle United vs Millwall (6)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town (5)
Oldham Athletic vs Leyton Orient (6)
English League Two:
Accrington Stanley vs Macclesfield Town (6)
Bury vs Darlington (8)
Crewe Alexandra vs Grimsby Town (6)
Port Vale vs Bradford City (6)
Notts County vs Chesterfield (7) over 2.5 goals
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Sillamae Kalev vs Flora Tallinn (5) 1-2
Flora Paide vs Lootus (6) 1-0
Kuressaare vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (6) 1-1
Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva (8) over 2.5 goals
Nomme Kalju vs Viljandi Tulevik (8) 2-1
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Tampere United vs JJK Jyvaskyla (8) under 2.5 goals
Scottish Premier League:
Kilmarnock vs Rangers (8) 0-1
St.Mirren vs Motherwell (6) 1-2
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Young Lions (8) 2-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Mineros de Guayana vs Trujillanos (6) 2-1
Wales Premier League:
Llanelli vs Port Talbot Town (9) over 2.5 goals
Bala Town vs Newtown (4) 1-1
Carmarthen Town vs The New Saints (7) 0-1
Welshpool Town vs Connah’s Quay Nomads (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!