Bolivia vs Venezuela
FreeToday’s featured game is the International Friendly in South America between Bolivia and Venezuela. These two nations are widely considered to be the two poorest in South America quality-wise so we should expect a close game here although a feisty one nonetheless between two sides with nothing to lose and everything to prove.
Hosts Bolivia welcome Venezuela to Santa Cruz, which is one of the more low-lying Bolivian cities so don’t expect the usual altitude advantage here. Indeed, I partially wonder if Bolivia have done this to unsettle Venezuela, who usually play at high altitudes themselves so we have yet to see if this move will benefit the hosts or not tonight.
Quality-wise, however, I have to favour Bolivia here. As I touched upon briefly in the opening paragraph – there really is very little between these two sides. However, Bolivia’s national team is on the rise, in my opinion, and that’s why I’m giving them a chance here. The strike duo of Marcelo Moreno (Shakhtar Donetsk) and Jose Castillo (Blooming Santa Cruz) look good together and Castillo in particular will enjoy this game as Blooming Santa Cruz play their home games at the Estadio Ramon Aguilera Costas, along with rivals Oriente Petrolero. Indeed, Hoyos, Gutierrez, J.Vaca, Chavez, Campos, and Saucedo all join Castillo with the boast that they too play their home games for their clubs here so I think it’s fair to say that Bolivia are covering all bases here to make sure that they get a sellout crowd and have players who are particularly eager to please the crowd.
I’d argue that this is one of the more inexperienced Bolivian sides in terms of names despite the likes of Moreno, Garcia, and Raldes all playing football outside of Bolivia currently and the likes of Castillo and J.Vaca having played outside Bolivia previously. Coach Villegas has been quite astute by mixing those experienced players with relatively inexperienced local players as the two should gel rather well but there’s not an awful lot of caps in this side. However, I’m particularly excited by his call-up of Oriente Petrolero winger Campos – his pace and crossing causes no end of problems for the opponents of Oriente Petrolero and I hope he gets the chance to shine tonight. Bolivia need a big game from Moreno in attack, Vaca in midfield, and captain Raldes at the back to perform properly as a unit here but if they do then I expect their ability and surprising choice of venue to count for a lot here and ultimately grant them a victory. I think it’s also worth noting that the only side to score more home goals than Bolivia in the last World Cup Qualifying campaign was Uruguay so don’t doubt this side’s ability in front of their own people, although the missing Botero could prove to be a little problematic for the hosts.
Visitors Venezuela aren’t short on ability themselves, however. Star playmaker Juan Arango should be a familiar name to many of you with the talented midfielder having plyed his trade in Spain with Real Mallorca before moving to Germany’s Borussia Moenchengladbach in summer. He’s experienced, has great vision, and an exceptional pass on him so Bolivia will need to nullify him to have any joy in this game tonight. Other notable names are Twente Enschede defender Rosales, Hamburger SV midfielder Rincon, Club Brugge midfielder Vargas, and Getafe striker Fedor. Moreno and Fedor are likely to lead the line with the absence of Maldonado but it should be more than obvious that Venezuela’s main strength lies in their midfield, which is packed with pace, experience, and ability. Their defence looks short of experience and rather susceptible in all honesty and with their attack looking somewhat ineffectual, it’s only really Venezuela’s midfield that concerns me. I think Farias has brought an experienced enough side to get a result here if their midfield is allowed to dominate but in a vibrant Santa Cruz atmosphere amidst many locals on the field, I have my doubts over whether that can happen here or not and if it doesn’t then I really doubt their chances of getting a result here.
The bad news for Venezuela is that star striker Maldonado misses this game. He’s their all-time leading goalscorer and scored six times in fifteen World Cup Qualifying appearances last time around, which was over a quarter of Venezuela’s total goals in that campaign. Venezuela lack a natural goalscorer without him so I have my doubts over their ability to challenge Bolivia tonight.
Let’s be blunt here – this game is a friendly and should be approached with caution. There’s no dead certs in friendlies and South American football in particular can be rather explosive. However, if the Bolivians control the midfield in Santa Cruz then they’ve got the finesse in attack to win this game with ease. Venezuela should really miss Maldonado here and will rely much more heavily on Arango as a result, which could easily backfire on the visitors. Venezuela’s defence is not impressive and they rarely travel well so I fancy the Bolivians to win this in front of what should be a vociferous Santa Cruz crowd as they cheer on many of their local players.
Confirmed squads:
Bolivia:
Goalkeepers – Lampe, Vaca
Defenders – Hoyos, Anez, Raldes, Rodriguez, Gutierrez, Garcia, Bejarano, Reyes
Midfielders – Garcia, Lima, Vaca, Sanchez, Chavez, Campos, Saucedo, Pena Attackers – Veizaga, Galindo, Moreno, Castillo.
Venezuela:
Goalkeepers – Vega, Hernandez
Defenders – Granados, Bustamante, Vizcarrondo, Rosales, Perozo, Erazo, Cichero, Romero
Midfielders – Arango, Flores, Rincon, Gonzales, Seijas, Lucena, Gomez, Vargas
Attackers – Fedor, Chourio, Renteria, Blanco, Moreno
Verdict: Bolivia to win at 17/20.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Iceland U21 vs Scotland U21 – home win at evens.
I’m a little annoyed that the odds on Iceland have nosedived so quickly – the odds were 6/5 the other day! However, I’m still keen to back them here and I’ll tell you why.
Statistics alone show that Iceland U21 were the top goalscorers in the whole qualifying campaign for Denmark 2011 and that in itself is a fine achievement when you consider the somewhat perilous state of their senior team. Iceland’s defence isn’t always the most reliable but they’re well-organised enough to keep the majority of sides out which leaves their frankly devastating attack to wreak havoc upon their opponents. Sverrison has named a rather experienced line-up with pacey Rurik Gislason likely to lead the line alongside the very impressive Breidablik Kopavogur striker Finnbogason although Gislason can drift out to the flanks and make a 4-5-1 if Sverrison decides to do so against a resilient Scotland U21 side. Viking Stavanger winger Bjarnason will play a big part in Iceland’s display if they’re to be successful and I’m sure that the Icelanders are grateful for the input of Hearts midfielder Eggert Jonsson as he clearly plays his football in Scotland. Hoffenheim attacking midfielder Sigurdsson has been excellent so far in this tournament and AZ Alkmaar striker Sigthorsson looks intriguing too, especially as his club side look remarkably impotent currently. Effectively, this Iceland side boasts a lot more talent than they’re given credit for and I think they should be feared here, in all honesty. They’ve battered Germany U21 in both games that I watched, winning 4-1 at home and drawing 2-2 away so the Icelandic side aren’t afraid of big names. Only the Czech Republic U21 side have won here in the last twelve months and it’s going to take a monumental effort from Scotland U21 to prevent and Icelandic victory here, in my opinion.
Visitors Scotland U21 have impressed me a lot during their own qualifying campaign, however. They’ve played Belarus U21 and Austria U21, two youth sides that I rate very highly indeed, and they’ve only lost one of their four games, which was the away game in Austria. They’ve played in a very resilient and well-organised fashion and sides find it hard to break them down, naturally. You need options in attack to break them down and that’s why I’m backing Iceland to do so today as they have both height and pace in their squad. Scotland will not lie down in this game and I do fancy them to at least score in this game against an occasionally abject Iceland U21 defence. However, as far as potency goes, I think Scotland U21 are in the shallow end of the pool here – they’d be foolish to take Iceland U21 in a game of “total football” here because they’ll get torn apart. Iceland U21 must be wary of Maguire in Scotland’s attack, who has dragged Scotland through their last few qualifying games to get them to where they are as he inspires the side. There’s a good level of experience in this Scottish side with the majority of them playing their football in either the English divisions or the Scottish Premier League so that in itself will tell you how hard the Scots can be to beat.
However, I have to side with Iceland U21 here. They’re too damn good in front of goal to be left alone for this game. Iceland also have to win this game as it’s the first of two legs and they have to take a win to Scotland or face a very difficult trip indeed. Iceland have the firepower to win this game and if they take an early lead then Scotland could have a very uncomfortable evening in Scandinavia tonight. All in all, I think we’re going to see a good game here with plenty of goals but I have to favour the hosts with such an array of talent available to them in attack and at decent odds of evens.
Confirmed squads:
Iceland U21:
Goalkeepers – Bjornsson, Petursson
Defenders – Johannesson, Valgardsson, Helgason, Jonsson, Eyolfsson, Fridgeirsson
Midfielders – Bjarnason, Vidarsson, Jonsson, Gudmundsson, Sigurdsson, Kristjansson, Ormarsson, Gunnarsson, Palsson
Attackers – Sigporsson, Gislason, Finnbogason, Sigurdarson, Steindorsson, Smarason
Scotland U21:
Goalkeepers – Barclay, Gallacher, Martin
Defenders – Caddis, Hanlon, Marr, Perry, Saunders, Scobbie, Wilson
Midfielders – Arfield, Bannan, Coutts, Davidson, McGinn, Shinnie, Wotherspoon
Attackers – Forrest, Goodwillie, Maguire, Griffiths, Murphy, Templeton
Verdict: Iceland U21 to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Brazil, Ekranas Panevezys, Flamengo.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today – sorry guys!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendly:
Iran vs Brazil (8) 1-2 (played in the United Arab Emirates)
Bolivia vs Venezuela (6) 2-1
UEFA European U21 Championship:
Iceland U21 vs Scotland U21 (7) over 2.5 goals
Switzerland U21 vs Sweden U21 (6) 1-1
Baltic League:
RFS/Olimps Riga vs Ekranas Panevezys (8) 0-2
Brazilian Serie A:
Palmeiras vs Avai (6) 2-1
Flamengo vs Atletico Goianiense (8) over 2.5 goals
Goias vs Cruzeiro (6) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Young Lions (4) 2-2
Home United vs Balestier Khalsa (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!