Botafogo vs Gremio
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First of all – that’s right, there’s no comments today. I’m sick and tired of deleting unnecessary bullshit from varying people. I will probably reinstate comment-posting at somepoint as a brief trial to see if you’ve heeded the below but for the present time, you’re going to be without it.
Guidelines for posting:
Avoid posting unnecessary comments e.g. “OMFG TEAM “X” LOST!”
Keep in-play chat on the forum e.g. comments such as “omg can’t believe they’ve scored!” and “that was never onside” will be deleted. Arguments such as “nobody uses the forum” are utterly irrelevant; if you can be arsed posting it on the comments section then you can be arsed posting it on the forum. If you can’t be arsed posting it on the forum then it’s not important enough to bother with, is it?
Make sure you posts have a purpose or they’ll be deleted e.g. “wtf?” will be deleted.
Not adhering to the above is clogging up the comments page and I have far too much to do to be able to consistently delete the shit to allow people to view the actually useful comments e.g. “my bet today is… because” or “their striker is out – I wouldn’t back them today” – something in that vein.
Anyway, today’s secondary featured game is the Brazilian Serie A game between Botafogo and Gremio. Hosts Botafogo are always strong at home and Gremio are always weak away, which is a very useful foundation for this bet!
Like most Brazilian clubs, Botafogo have undergone some hefty changes pre-season due to good players being snapped up. However, they’ve still entered this season as the same potent team and have already won two out of two on their own turf in Serie A, even beating giants Santos back in May. Botafogo’s success comes from their midfield with the likes of Maicousel, Mattos, Everton, Lucas Zen, and new starlet Elkeson dominating proceedings. It’s quite fortuitous that they have such a good midfield, really, as strikers Caio, Alex, and Herrera are generally a bit lost without big Abreu, who is yet to feature for Botafogo this season. Nonetheless, their strong midfield and desire to attack generally leads Botafogo to victory and I usually fancy them at home against most sides.
Visitors Gremio are no exception to that list, either. I don’t think I’ve ever encountered a side that is considered to be a heavyweight of a country that so consistently fails to deliver away from home for no real reason than Gremio. Every single year, Gremio are crap away from home, losing copious amounts of games and playing badly to boot. They’ve been quite poor overall so far this season, irrespective of their scorelines, so I don’t expect much from them today. This campaign was always going to be a hard one following the departure of star striker Jonas to Valencia CF but it’s been made harder for tonight’s game with midfield general and set piece specialist Rochemback being suspended. Additionally, number one goalkeeper Victor is absent, as is long-term absentee Rodolfo, so Gremio are far from at full-strength here. Looking at their team, I don’t see where their leadership will come from in midfield and that leadership is required too – they look really lightweight in there. They’ve got some semi-decent players up front but nothing like what they used to have a few years ago. So yeah – I don’t fancy Gremio at all here.
Gremio haven’t won at Botafogo since 2001 and I don’t think that’ll change tonight. The last two head-to-heads played in Rio de Janeiro have ended in high-scoring draws but given the lack of firepower in Gremio’s ranks, I don’t think we’ll see the same outcome tonight. Nonetheless, I won’t rule out the possibility of goals being scored here – I just think that they’ll be largely on the side of the hosts. For me, the home win at evens or longer is more than acceptable so 11/10 on Botafogo winning this game suits me just fine.
Team news – Gremio miss Rodolfo, Rochemback, and Victor.
Verdict: Botafogo to win at 11/10.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Ceara vs Palmeiras – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
In my view, Ceara really should have been relegated last season but it proved not to be. However, they really should be back in Serie B by the start of the next season as this side is woefully short of talent. That said, I won’t readily back against them at home because they have a very unique advantage in that they play in Fortaleza. Fortaleza is a small town in northern Brazil and is generally a very intimidating place to play football. Last season was a good example of that with Ceara losing just once in nineteen home games, which was unsurprisingly against Vasco da Gama, who had appointed their boss Gusmao as their manager at that time and considering that Gusmao effectively built that Ceara team, it’s fair to have expected the away win! Clubs will approach away games with Ceara with more caution this season, such is “second season syndrome”, but it’s still not easy to play here. The pitch is compact and Ceara are real battlers, which is handy because they’re utterly useless when it comes to quality. Ceara have already lost twice in three home games this season, which has to be concerning for them as without their home advantage, they are quite simply sitting ducks. They’ve been done over by Vasco da Gama 1-3 (again – although without Gusmao this time) and league leaders Sao Paulo 0-2. Ceara’s form looks a lot more overish than it actually is, however, with the sides that they’ve gone over against being sides that attack freely without much care for defending e.g. Botafogo. The Ceara I prefer to pay much more attention to is the Ceara side that lost 0-2 against Sao Paulo; they worked hard, the scoreline flattered the visitors, but better sides can defend against them quite easily and if they take their chances then they’ll beat Ceara. You need a good tactical side to deploy that approach and there aren’t many in Brazil who can do that.
However, enter Palmeiras, who absolutely can do that! Under Scolari, Palmeiras have suddenly gone “Hey, we’re actually a lot better than we’ve been thinking that we are!” and subsequently, they’re unbeaten in five games this season, winning three times along the way. They enter this match on the back of a 5-0 drubbing of Avai, which was quite unusual as Palmeiras generally don’t play to score a lot of goals due to their absence of flair players. They certainly won’t attempt it without Valdivia, anyway! Palmeiras have a good attack though, it has to be said – Kleber and Luan have linked up well and Palmeiras look better for it. They defend well and like to counter-attack efficiently and that tactic has served Sao Paulo well for years so why not Palmeiras too? They’ve got good experience in the middle of the park with Marcos Assuncao dictating the play and Palmeiras have good options when they get the ball wide too, not least with “right-back” Cicinho tearing forward. Palmeiras don’t tend to play as well away from home as at home though, which is what has dissuaded me from the away win here, especially as it’s in Fortaleza. Additionally, striker Luan is absent and new signing Maikon Leite has not been cleared for this game so Palmeiras aren’t full of options in attack.
Therefore, the away win looks correctly priced and I have no interest in it. However, I have an awful lot of interest in under 2.5 goals as Palmeiras like to keep the ball and win efficiently rather than flambuoyantly, which was possibly something that Scolari picked up during his short tenure at Chelsea! Either way, Palmeiras are playing confidently enough to dominate this game and they’ve got the midfield to frustrate their tenacious hosts so I think we’ll see a real battle here but with a narrow scoreline as I don’t see Avai scoring and I don’t see Palmeiras scoring many, hence under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Team news – Ceara miss Carenca whereas Palmeiras miss Maikon Leite and Luan whilst having doubts over Tinga and Gabriel Silva.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima – home win at 9/10.
Gamba Osaka may not be quite at their peak yet but four wins from five home games in the J-League says that they know how to win their home games. They’re still conceding more than I’d like them to although there’s a possibility that that’s more evident as Gamba Osaka aren’t scoring as many as I’d expect them to, which is probably related to the continued absence of Hashimoto. Nonetheless, the acquisition of Brazilian striker Adriano from Cerezo Osaka has proven to be a good move with him bagging nine goals in eight appearances this season. Couple that with the dominance of Endo in the middle of the park and the emergance of Usarmi and Gamba Osaka have a foundation that they can build on, although there is still work to do.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have struggled a lot away from home this season. They’ve bagged just three goals in five away games and have understandably only won two of their games with that approach. Nonetheless, they’re defending well and that has caused some clubs problems, namely Shimizu S-Pulse and Albirex Niigata. However, when encountering a good attacking side like Kawasaki Frontale, they were eventually penetrated and duly lost the match as they lack the firepower to get back into games that they fall behind in, generally speaking, and that’s the same type of game I expect from them today. They may improve defensively when Mizumoto returns from his lengthy absence but at the moment, they can be broken through by a good attacking side and if nothing else, Gamba Osaka are very good at attacking.
The only side to avoid defeat in Osaka when facing Gamba in the J-League this season had to score two goals. I don’t see how Sanfrecce Hiroshima will score two goals here, to be blunt. They’ve got a couple of fairly average strikers in Sato and Lee and a couple of experienced attacking midfielders in ex-Lokomotiv Moscow player Mujiri and ex-Dinamo Zagreb player Mikic. They’ve got enough quality to function as a unit but as goalscorers? I don’t think so. They lost here last season and at 9/10, I’m happy to back Gamba Osaka to beat them again.
Team news – Gamba Osaka miss Hashimoto whereas Sanfrecce Hiroshima miss Takayanagi and Mizumoto.
Verdict: Gamba Osaka to win at 9/10.
Odd Grenland Skien vs Molde FK – away win with draw no bet at evens.
I can’t say I understand the odds on this game but I’m happy to go along with it. I appreciate that Odd Grenland are not a side to write off at home as they do make their artificial turf count but they’re quite the average side nowadays – they don’t have the same “shock” factor as they did when they were promoted a few years ago. They do have a good attack with pacey Magnus Myklebust being the legs that old Frode Johnsen no longer has and the two link up well, especially with pacey Midtgarden on the flank. Their midfield is somewhat stagnant but experienced and they enjoy frustrating opponents with it. However, when it comes to winning games, Odd Grenland are struggling this season with only newly-promoted Sarpsborg 08 having lost here. It’s all well and good to score three goals at home against Rosenborg BK and two goals against Stabaek but what have they taken from those games – one point?! They need to sort things out at the back but either way, this side doesn’t have enough balance to win a game like this, in my view.
Molde are red-hot at the moment and they also have a good amount of luck which tells me to take them here. To win in Drammen against Stromsgodset is a bloody hard thing to do and ‘godset really made them work for it too, arguably deserving at least a draw from the game. However, Molde held on and won the game and have now lost just twice in their last eleven Eliteserien games, one of which was against reigning champions Rosenborg BK (which is fair enough) and the other was the strangest 5-0 defeat I’ve ever seen with Molde more than matching Haugesund but the hosts taking their chances in a far more clinical fashion. Nonetheless, Solskjaer’s boys have bounced back and just keep winning by scoring a lot of goals. Their African attackers are causing nightmares to Eliteserien defences everywhere with Diouf, Angan, and Chima all being very hard to handle. I’ve said before that they’ve got arguably the best midfield in Norway in Hoseth, Eikrem, Thioune, and Berg Hestad, and I stand by that statement – there’s plenty of everything required in there. Molde’s defence is a concern but they score more than enough goals for that to not concern me here.
This is not a “dead cert” of course, but I’d be astounded if Molde lost this game. They’ve not won at Odd Grenland since Odd Grenland were last promoted but claimed a 1-1 draw here last season. Molde have a much better manager this year and are a lot more confident because of it. I think we’ll see quite the goal-filled game here but for me, only in-form Molde can take three points here, if indeed either of them do. Therefore, the away win with draw no bet cover appeals to me at evens, especially with Odd Grenland having played three games in seven days, the latest one of which was played over 120 minutes.
Verdict: Molde FK to win with draw no bet at evens.
FK Krasnodar vs Anzhi Makhachkala – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
FK Krasnodar have done surprisingly well at home this season and I’m still not entirely sure how. They bought their way into this division, which is ironic as the side they’re facing today is trying to buy the division! Krasnodar generally lack talent but make up for it with a strong work ethic. Movsisyan is a good striker whom I like quite a lot, to be fair to Krasnodar. Additionally, ex-Levski Sofia attacker Joaozinho is a good player too. Aside from that – they have a lot of battlers and won’t give in to anyone but I just don’t rate their ability in front of goal, contrary to their surprisingly good record of goalscoring, especially at home. I attribute their strong goalscoring record at home to scoring against crap sides. For example, they’ve bagged eleven goals at home this season and nine of them have been against sides that will either be relegated or just avoid the drop. They even failed to score at home against Terek Grozny in their last match, losing 0-2! This side is over-achieving in the sense that they’re not really good enough to be in the division so I’m pretty happy to oppose them today.
Visitors Anzhi are a funny side; when I back them, they draw or lose. When I bet against them, they win. However, I don’t tend to let superstition get in my way so I’m taking them with draw no bet here. They miss striker Tardelli, who hasn’t really impressed yet anyway, and fellow compatriot Jucilei in midfield. However, given that both were absent during Anzhi’s 0-3 win at Krylya Sovetov Samara last match, I’m not too concerned there. Anzhi’s ability to keep other sides out means that Krasnodar will do well to even score here, in my view. It depends which Anzhi shows up as to whether they win or not, however. In Bousouffa, Anzhi have a good enough playmaker to win them the game. Holenda is a decent enough target man to be on the field of play and old Roberto Carlos does his faire share from a creative aspect, too. Anzhi should have enough to nick a goal or two here, especially against a hard-working but fairly ineffectual Krasnodar team.
For me, the away win with draw no bet cover is pretty generously priced at 4/5 and thus it’s my call here.
Team news – Anzhi Makhachkala miss Jucilei and Diego Tardelli.
Verdict: Anzhi Makhachkala to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow – home win at 11/10.
I’m not sure when I’m going to stop betting against Lokomotiv Moscow; perhaps when they actually appoint a new manager instead of caretaker boss Maminov?
Either way, I’m on Dinamo Moscow here. I’m not a big fan of the hosts, to be honest. For a side with such financial clout, Dinamo Moscow have done next to nothing for years now due to persistent changes and inconsistent displays. However, if they can’t win this derby then they’re absolute idiots. They do have firepower in Kuranyi up front. They’ve got good playmaker in Misimovic, a good winger in Samedov, and a good leader at the back in Fernandez. The changes that need to be made to this team are minimal and yet they still continue to frustrate – odd, isn’t it? However, they’ve won back-to-back games ahead of this one, the most recent of which was a 0-2 derby win at Spartak Moscow so confidence is high and they should have enough momentum to do the job today.
Lokomotiv Moscow have fallen apart since the scandal regarding the Anzhi Makhachkala game and is it any wonder? This side is consistently built around their manager; if they have a good manager, they do well. If they chop and change managers, they struggle. Promising manager Krasnozhan was brought in to replace Semin at the start of the season and he got Lokomotiv playing really well. However, they sacked Krasnozhan as Lokomotiv’s chairman decided he took a bribe for their loss against Anzhi and now they simply have caretaker boss Maminov in charge. Since then, all of Lokomotiv’s displays have been crap, relying heavily on Spartak Nal’chik being abysmal to beat them and losing the following two derbies convincingly, 3-1 at CSKA Moscow and 0-2 against Spartak Moscow. Their displays were poor and their defeats were well earned, in my view.
Lokomotiv are short on defenders for this game too, it has to be noted. Burlak is absent and Basa has left to join LOSC Lille in France so they may be more suspect than usual away from home today. Additionally, creative midfielder Torbinskiy misses out too, which piles further woe on this unconvincing Lokomotiv Moscow side. Although I really don’t like backing Dinamo Moscow against anyone, their failure to win this game would be a pretty hefty surprise today.
Team news – Lokomotiv Moscow miss Torbinskiy and Burlak.
Verdict: Dinamo Moscow to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Zenit St.Petersburg, Assyriska Sodertalje.
Recommended bets:
Botafogo, Assyriska Sodertalje, and Zenit St.Petersburg at just below 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Brazilian Serie A:
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Botafogo vs Gremio (7) 2-1
Avai vs Fluminense (5) 1-0
Ceara vs Palmeiras (6) 0-1
Internacional vs Figueirense (7) 2-1
Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco da Gama (7) 2-0
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
07 Vestur Sorvagur vs IF Fuglafjordur (6) 2-1
HB Torshavn vs B36 Torshavn (7) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Fylkir Reykjavik vs Thor Akureyi (7) 1-0
Valur Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik (7) 1-0
UMF Grindavik vs KR Reykjavik (5) 2-1
Japanese J-Leaue:
Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (7) 2-1
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Vegalta Sendai (4) 1-1
Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama F.Marinos (5) 0-1
Omiya Ardija vs Vissel Kobe (6) 0-0
Latvian Virsliga:
Skonto Riga vs Daugava Daugavpils (5) 1-1
FK Ventspils vs Liepajas Metalurgs (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Lithuanian A Lyga:
FBK Kaunas vs Atlantas (4) 1-1
Mazeikiai vs Dainava (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Suduva Marijampole (7) 0-2
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sogndal vs Fredrikstad (5) 1-1
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund (7) 2-0
Tromso vs Stabaek (7) 2-0
Start Kristiansand vs Valerenga Oslo (5) 1-1
Odd Grenland Skien vs Molde FK (6) 1-2
Viking Stavanger vs Rosenborg BK (6) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Ranheim vs Sandefjord (4)
Asker vs Randaberg (7)
Bodo Glimt vs Mjondalen (7)
Bryne vs Kongsvinger (6)
Hamarkameratene vs Hodd (6)
Honefoss vs Alta (7)
Lov-Ham Bergen vs Sandnes Ulf (5)
Strommen vs Nybergsund (6)
Russian Premier League:
Tom’ Tomsk vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (6) 1-1
Amkar Perm’ vs CSKA Moscow (5) 0-0
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Terek Grozny (8) 2-0
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Spartak Nal’chik (7) 0-0
Rubin Kazan’ vs Kuban’ Krasnodar (6) 2-1
Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow (7) 1-0
Spartak Moscow vs Rostov-na-Donu (5) 2-1
FK Krasnodar vs Anzhi Makhachkala (6) 0-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GAIS Goteborg vs Malmo FF (6) 1-1
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Orebro (4) 1-0
Gefle vs IFK Goteborg (5) 1-0
Djurgarden vs BK Hacken Goteborg (5) 2-2
Trelleborg vs AIK Solna (6) 1-1
Swedish Superettan:
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Qviding Goteborg (8)
Enjoy your free betting tips!