Brazil vs Ivory Coast
FreeFirst of all – apologies for the tip suggesting to lay Betis yesterday. It was eventually passed on to me that the Spanish Segunda Liga has a bizarre three-side system that I frankly can’t be bothered going into! The point is that Levante were already promoted so the tip was useless – my bad. Hopefully the other winners yesterday compensated for this error.
Today’s featured game is the World Cup game between Brazil and Ivory Coast. The two names alone suggest goals in this game and frankly that is what I expect to occur as a result!
Obviously, there’s a bit more to it than that, however! Brazil weren’t overly convincing against North Korea because the Asians put up solid banks of four that the Brazilians couldn’t break down easily, as I expected. However, Brazil do what Brazil do best and duly scored a fabulous goal to open up the game. Brazil often look a threat, particularly if the side they’re facing isn’t playing a defensive game and that’s what I expect to happen today. Dunga’s tactics surprised me against North Korea as he fielded two holding midfielders, which seemed a little bizarre in my eyes, particularly as neither of them are particularly good in my eyes. Nonetheless, Brazil always look a potent threat with the likes of Robinho and Kaka pulling the strings so it’s a safe bet to assume that they’ll find the net once or twice against anyone, which naturally does include the Ivory Coast! Brazil’s full-backs are arguably the most dangerous in the competition with either Maicon or Dani Alves breaking down the right and Bastos breaking down the left on every possible occasion and that is a fundamental part of Brazil’s route to success because they always have men over in attack and usually profit from it. Either way, I expect Brazil to score once or twice tonight, which should set up an interesting game.
Ivory Coast did well in their opening game against Portugal with Eriksson’s tactics thrwarting the Portuguese rather easily. The Ivorians were a tad unlucky not to win the game and it could be argued that had Drogba started the game, then they would have won, as his cameo role in the game saw him given a couple of half-chances that he may have taken on another day. Drogba is fit for this game and I expect him to have a lot of joy against Brazil. Why? Brazil aren’t lacking good defenders but they’re utterly inept when it comes to communication or positioning which is exactly how North Korea scored against them so I fancy a pacey and potent Ivory Coast to score at least once in this game. In a way, the Ivorians are like a lesser Brazil side in the sense that they attack with the same level of pace and “all or nothing” format of constant full-back support. However, the Ivorians aren’t a match for the Brazilians other than physically so I do think they’re going to concede as well today.
I may be building this up quite a lot but I’ve a fair amount of faith in this being game of the tournament thus far. I expect a lot of goals in this game as a win for Brazil virtually guarantees them a place in the second round anyway so they’re going to push for it. The Ivorians will fancy their chances having seen North Korea fend off the Brazilians with relative ease before eventually succumbing and yet North Korea still managed to score past the Brazilians. With that in mind, Ivory Coast are a very real threat for Brazil and could even spring a shock result here. I still fancy Brazil but let’s say that an Ivorian win wouldn’t surprise me. Either way, I expect plenty of goals and therefore odds of 6/5 on there being over 2.5 goals looks a good bet to me.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Slovakia vs Paraguay – both sides to score at 6/4.
Warning: Yawn-fest group game number one! The most interesting thing about this game should be the fact that Slovakia have bizarrely been priced at 3/1 to win the game. That’s a massive over-reaction to them conceding a late goal against New Zealand, in my opinion – they’re still a capable side. Paraguay’s draw against Italy in their opening game was well-earned, admittedly, but they’re far from the finished article themselves. Paraguay have one big weakness and that is that they don’t have a composed enough midfield to deal with pressure. If they’re put under any kind of pressure, they tend to buckle, and I’m confident that’s exactly what Slovakia will do today to thwart them. I don’t rate Slovakia as a massive goalscoring force, hence their inability to kill off New Zealand last match, but they’re certainly capable of scoring at least one with some good pacey attackers in their squad against a relatively slow Paraguayan defence. Similarly, the Paraguayans don’t score enough goals either but any side with Santa Cruz and Cardozo in it remains a threat and I do think they’ll find a way through eventually due to Slovakian inexperience against this type of opponent.
Basically, I expect a fairly dull game between these two sides as they should cancel each other out fairly well. However, both are capable of scoring against each other and both need the points so I think both will score. Slovakia have the creativity to make something happen, something that Paraguay lack. However, Paraguay have the finishers that Slovakia lack so all in all, I expect both sides to do damage to each other and score at least once in this game and then most likely draw the game in accordance with most games in this group as there are four “stopper” sides in this group!
Verdict: Both sides to score at 6/4.
Italy vs New Zealand – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Warning: Yawn-fest group game number two! Italy can consider themselves lucky to have scored against a resolute Paraguay as it was goalkeeper Villar who allowed them the opportunity to do so, not the merits of their own play. Basically, Italy confirmed in that game what I touched upon pre-tournament – they’re too old, too slow, and too predictable to be a threat in this tournament. I have nothing but respect for their outstanding individuals but Italian football is a dying art, as is their tactical approach, and it shows in every international game that Italy play in. Italy haven’t scored more than once in any of their last six games, which speaks volumes for my point. They don’t threaten sides enough because they’re predictable and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them struggle again here.
New Zealand’s opening game resulted in a heroic result for them and I take my hat off to them. They were outplayed by a better side that didn’t take their chances but New Zealand never gave in and they eventually scored. I think it speaks volumes for their well-organised defence that they only conceded once and it says a lot for their team spirit to see that they still carried on until the very last minute. Some “new” World Cup sides would have crumbled after falling behind as they’d no way back into the game but New Zealand kept strong and got a credible draw. New Zealand are capable of scoring goals too, as Shane Smeltz is living proof of, although I must confess that I’m hoping the Italians “do a job” on him tonight as my call only allows for the Italians to score! Either way, New Zealand are here to give their all in the World Cup and that makes them a dangerous side to play against, particularly as they have no expectations whatsoever. I think they’ll work their arses off against Italy and cause them a lot of problems so should keep the score low and maybe even sneak a cheeky draw here.
I can only urge you all not to back Italy for their name today. They’re not worth touching to win this game below 4/6, in my opinion, because they’re so damn unreliable. New Zealand may be an unknown factor for most of you but don’t write them off here – if there’s one thing they’re good at then it’s defending and the one thing Italy can’t do at the moment is score so a draw really isn’t an impossible outcome here. That said, the pace and energy of the likes of Pepe gives Italy a chance of scoring because their side looks so stagnant without his energy that it’s unreal. With him in the side, they can cause problems and showed glimpses of that last match. Italy have another problem – they don’t close opponents down often enough so New Zealand aren’t going to be bombarded here, in my opinion. With that in mind, laying Italy was so very tempting but I decided that my favoured bet is this game going under 2.5 goals at 5/6. The odds aren’t great as the bookies are aware of how bad Italy are, unfortunately, but they’re still longer than they should be for this game.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Roskilde vs Skive – away win at 15/8.
They’re back! Our once-hated-but-now-loved Skive return in their final game of the season in the form of their lives. They’ve nothing left to play for but neither do hosts Roskilde. Skive are purely on an amazingly sensational momentum burst that has seen them win four consecutive games comfortably. They’ve beaten two excellent sides, one good side, and one poor side during that run so don’t underestimate these sides despite their atrocious away record overall. Skive started this amazing run by beating the best home side in the division – Lyngby – 4-1 away from home so don’t doubt their capability to emulate that result today! They’ve scored eleven goals in four games and are completely on-fire as a 4-0 win at home to a Thisted side that needed the points indicated last match. Motivation isn’t a problem for Skive despite them having nothing to play for whereas Roskilde have only just secured football in this division next year so they may have some burn-out here. Roskilde have lost half of their home games this season because they concede too easily and don’t score enough so why shouldn’t in-form Skive take advantage of that? It’s a risky call because neither side are particularly good but Skive are playing so well currently that I can’t go against them – they have to be given a shot in this game, particularly with such generous odds!
Verdict: Skive to win at 15/8.
Lyngby vs Vejle – lay Lyngby at 2/1.
This is a bold call given Lyngby’s outstanding home form this season but Lyngby haven’t convinced me of late. They were crushed 4-1 at home by minnows Skive lately and they’ve only overcome poor or average sides either side of that. Their last difficult home game was at home to Viborg and they drew that game. Viborg aren’t great but they’re solid defensively, just like Lyngby’s opponents Vejle are. Lyngby haven’t been as reliable of late with their displays and I feel the pressure is finally getting to them. They’re certainly the better side but giving them such short odds against a decent side when they don’t have to win the game is ludicrous.
Vejle’s league placing doesn’t really reflect their oveall ability. Unfortunately, their lack of goalscoring ability has hindered their league displays a lot this season but to assume that they’re weak as a result is foolish. Vejle are a big club and their form does show that if you read between the lines. Vejle have only lost four away games in fourteen this season despite being tenth in the table so please don’t underestimate them here! I’ll concede that half of Vejle’s away defeats this season have come in their last three games but the fact remains that they’re a damn hard side to beat and I think they’ll give Lyngby a game today despite this match being redundant for Vejle.
Lyngby don’t need to win this game – they just need a draw to claim a deserved promotion place. Bear that in mind here! Vejle have nothing to play for but they’re still a hard side to beat so I think it’s worth a shot at laying Lyngby at 2/1 although I have to emphasise the risk factor here as Lyngby are the better side. That said, Lyngby have failed to beat Vejle in their last three home games against them and only managed a draw at Vejle earlier in the season – just food for thought!
Verdict: Lay Lyngby at 2/1.
Liga de Quito vs Olmedo Riobamba – both sides to score at 5/6.
Liga de Quito are by far the superior of these two sides. Seven wins and two draws in nine home games whilst averaging scoring two goals per home game and conceding just twice at home all season in Primera A indicates that very clearly. However, Liga de Quito have looked stretched of late with two defeats in their last three games, once against title rivals Emelec Guayaquil and once against lowly Espoli Cayambe so Liga de Quito certainly aren’t looking the force that they could and should be currently. They’ve conceded in two out of their last three games and whereas I still think they’ll win this game, I doubt they’ll be too confident defensively because of the above record.
Coupled with the above information you must also have a side capable of scoring goals – cue Olmedo Riobamba’s entrance. They’re an average Primera A side but they’re massively in-form with no defeats in their last four games, winning three of those games and drawing the other. Impressively, they’ve not conceded in any of those games so the onus is on Liga de Quito to break their stiff resolve tonight. Olmedo have notched up five goals during those games, however, so they’re certainly looking likely to give Liga de Quito a tough game today. Olmedo have scored in their last three away games consecutively against superior opponents (Emelec Guayaquil and Deportivo Cuenca, even winning the latter!) and against a poor Macara Ambato so why not again tonight? They’re definitely the underdogs but they’ve managed to score here for two consecutive seasons so I don’t see it being beyond them to score again today.
The odds are a bit shorter than I’d like but there could and should be value here. Olmedo are playing really well and are scoring goals at will whereas Liga de Quito aren’t playing too well so backing both sides to score here looks intriguing.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Universidad Catolica vs El Nacional Quito – away win at 7/4.
I hate away wins in Ecuador but this has to be worth a shot!
Newly-promoted Universidad Catolica haven’t impressed this season with just one win in nine home games, losing four along the way. Only Espoli Cayambe have lost more home games than tonight’s hosts have but that doesn’t exactly help Universidad as Espoli have at least won four of their home games! It’s their home form which has placed Universidad very firmly in the “drop zone” and their home form is poor because they concede too many goals and don’t score enough. Simply put, they’re not a very good side. I’ll give them their dues – they’re unbeaten in two consecutive games and even overcame Independiente to claim three points of late (their first three at home this season!) but despite their momentum burst, I still don’t expect much from the minnows.
Visitors El Nacional Quito are the good side here, frankly. They’re a big side and they’d be able to prove it more if they could score more goals. Fortunately for us, scoring goals is exactly what they are doing at the moment so they’re finally fulfilling their potential as a result. They’ve won two out of their last three games, drawing the other game, and have scored an impressive eleven goals during those games, which is an average of nearly four goals per game. I can’t deny that El Nacional don’t travel well as six defeats in nine games indicates all too clearly but they’re the most potent side in the divison away from home and they’re play terrifically well at the moment so why not give them a thought tonight? El Nacional are the superior of the two sides and de Jesus is on-fire for them with goalscoring so I’ll give them their chances today, particularly with such favourable odds on the away win.
Verdict: El Nacional Quito to win at 7/4.
Deportivo Cuenca vs Macara Ambato – lay Deportivo Cuenca at 5/4.
Deportivo Cuenca have never been great goalscorers – they’re simply very hard to beat in Cuenca. However, the down side is that when a side like this is out-of-form, they’re not just bad – they’re terrible. They’ve lost three out of their last five games and have only won once as morale plummets and their strong defence becomes more and more prone as a result. They bizarrely lost 1-0 at home to an average Olmedo Riobamba last match and have only scored in one out of their last three games so they’re not exactly firing on all cylinders ahead of this game. The last side that Deportivo would have wanted to face tonight is bogey side Macara Ambato, whom they’ve failed to beat in Cuenca for three consecutive seasons so they’re really not shaping up well for this game, in my opinion!
I can’t dispute the fact that Deportivo are the better of these two sides because they are unequivocally the better side, particularly at home. However, Macara have only lost four out of nine away games this season despite being rooted to the foot of the table and they’re unbeaten in three consecutive games so they do bring some good momentum into this game as a result. Ultimately, Deportivo aren’t playing well and Macara are doing better than statistics indicate so I think laying the hosts tonight could be worth a punt whilst the odds remain at 5/4 or longer.
Verdict: Macara Ambato to win with +1.75 handicap at 5/4.
EB/Streymur vs Vikingur Gotu – home win at 5/6.
Giants EB/Streymur are worryingly entering their stride as the Meistaradeildin season progresses with five wins from their past six games. They’ve already won four out of six home games this season despite a sluggish start due to an iron defence and they’ve won their last three home games consecutively, winning their last two 3-0 thanks to some strong goalscoring displays, which is quite unlike the hosts – they much prefer the controlled 1-0 win to the extravagant 3-0 wins. However, what remains certain is that EB/Streymur are massively in-form, they’re scoring goals for fun, and their morale is through the roof as a result. They’ve not conceded in their past three games consecutively in all competitions so everything is certainly in their favour at the moment.
I certainly don’t underestimate the ability of Vikingur Gotu, however. They’re a capable side and they’ve already demonstrated that a few times this season. They’ve been good on the road with three wins in six games, losing just twice along the way, so they are a threat. They’re often an outside bet for the Meistaradeildin title but never really seem to manage it and it’s the kind of form that they’re currently in that is the reasoning behind their continued failures of late – inconsistency. They’ve lost four out of their last five games in all competitions, drawing the other game, and have leaked twelve goals along the way, which is an average of over two goals per game. Worryingly, they’ve only scored in three of those games, which is a big problem as goalscoring is the predominant strength of Vikingur Gotu. It was their potency that got them a result here last season but without it, they look unlikely to shatter a strong EB/Streymur defence, particularly with the hosts playing so well at the moment.
They were runners-up last year and won it the year before so it’d be foolish to imagine EB/Streymur not being in the mix for the Meistaradeildin title at the end of the season, particularly if their present form is anything to go by. Vikingur Gotu’s win here last season was their only win here in four attempts, losing the other three, so you have to fear for them today, especially given their atrocious defending of late. The hosts are by far the better side and they’ve got a lot more going for them so they shouldn’t be as long as they are – I’d have expected 4/6 here – so there should be value in the home win.
Verdict: EB/Streymur to win at 5/6.
MP Mikkeli vs KooTeePee Kotka – away win at evens.
Ykkonen away wins aren’t my favourite call to make but KooTeePee have played well enough of late to give this one a try.
Newly-promoted MP Mikkeli are hardly setting the division alight with just one win in eight games and they look likedly to make a swift re-appearance in the Kakkonen next season if things don’t improve for them. They’ve been poor away from home, as you’d expect, but two defeats and one draw in three home games this season isn’t good enough and they know it. All this has stemmed from their inability to score goals, something they’ve managed to do just once at home this season. As a result, MP have now gone four Ykkonen games without a win and have lost their last three consecutively. In their defence, they’re not being humbled, but their impotence is causing problems because they’re getting beat by a single goal. A defeat is a defeat, whether it’s by one goal or by ten, and MP Mikkeli look likely to encounter a lot of the afore-mentioned defeats unless they start scoring. However, they’ve got low morale and momentum is dry so I don’t see them troubling a solid KooTeePee today.
KooTeePee don’t travel well so it takes a lot for me to back them on the road. They’re easily one of the most boring sides in the Ykkonen with low-scoring games galore wherever they play. However, don’t misinterpret that observation as making them a poor side – they’re not. They’re actually one of the better sides in the division but rarely show it due to a lack of potency in front of goal. Defensively, KooTeePee are arguably one of the finest sides in the Ykkonen with only recent-relegated RoPS Rovaniemi able to match their impressive record of just four goals conceded in eight games. KooTeePee have kept five clean sheets during that run so it’s beyond hard for me to envision them conceding against an inferior MP Mikkeli side today. Interestingly enough, KooTeePee have won twice on the road already this season in just three games, which is a bit odd for them because they don’t normally score enough on the road to get those results. A sign of maturity at long last, perhaps? It has been a little while since they were competing in the Veikkausliiga, after all. I’m still concerned that most of their goals are coming from midfielder Kuparinen but they’re still a good enough side to fashion a chance whilst they’re in-form, and in-form they most certainly are with four wins in their past five games in all competitions. Their two away wins this season were both against good sides too – PS Kemi Kings and PK-35 Helsinki respectively – so I’ve got some budding faith in Kotka’s finest away from home!
Either way, MP Mikkeli aren’t looking a goal threat so I can’t see them breaking a very strong KooTeePee defence today. The big question is whether KooTeePee score or not and given the form that they’re in, I’ll give them their chances today. They’re decent value whilst at evens but I wouldn’t touch them if the price drops.
Verdict: KooTeePee Kotka to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Fredericia, Barcelona Guayaquil, RoPS Rovaniemi.
Recommended bets:
RoPS Rovaniemi, EB/Streymur, and Fredericia at 3/1.
Barcelona Guayaquil, Brazil, and El Nacional Quito at 5/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
World Cup:
Slovakia vs Paraguay (6) 1-1
Italy vs New Zealand (6) 1-0
Brazil vs Ivory Coast (7) over 2.5 goals
Baltic Cup:
Lithuania vs Estonia (5) 2-1
Danish 1st Division:
Roskilde vs Skive (6)
Fredericia vs Braband (9) -1.75 handicap
Lyngby vs Vejle (3)
Fyn vs Viborg (7)
Naestved vs Kolding (6) both sides to score
Thisted vs Vestjaelland (5)
AB Copenhagen vs Hvidovre (7)
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Liga de Quito vs Olmedo Riobamba (7)
Universidad Catolica vs El Nacional Quito (5) over 2.5 goals
Deportivo Cuenca vs Macara Ambato (5) 0-0
Espoli Cayambe vs Deportivo Quito (4) 1-1
Manta vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 1-2
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Independiente (8) 2-0
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
B36 Torshavn vs AB Argir (5) 1-1
EB/Streymur vs Vikingur Gotu (7) 2-1
B68 Toftir vs Suduroy (7) 2-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Jaro Pietarsaari (7) 1-1
FC Honka Espoo vs Tampere United (6) 2-1
Inter Turku vs HJK Helsinki (5) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Finnish Ykkonen:
OPS Oulu vs RoPS Rovaniemi (8)
MP Mikkeli vs KooTeePee Kotka (6)
Hameenlinna vs KPV Kokkola (4)
PK-35 Helsinki vs Jippo Joensuu (6)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
KR Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (5) both sides to score
Keflavik vs Fram Reykjavik (5) 1-1
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Valur Reykjavik (6) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Hammarby (6) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!