Brno vs Slavia Prague
FreeToday’s featured game is the Gambrinus Liga encounter between Brno and Slavia Prague. Brno were difficult to beat last year which is the sole reason that they managed to stay in the division but a terrible start to their campaign sees them sat at the bottom of the table currently and deservedly so. Slavia Prague are still a big name in this league but have lessened in quality over the past year or so. With that in mind, the odds on the game today are probably about fair.
Brno are a side that I generally don’t like to bet against because of their stubborn defence when playing at home. They’ve also got an extremely strong head-to-head record against Slavia Prague in recent years with five consecutive home wins against the giants of Prague so I’m a bit on the nervous side currently! However, I cannot overlook how badly Brno have started this season. They’ve already leaked seven goals in three games, losing all of those games! Defeats at Jablonec and Banik Ostrava are acceptable in my book but losing 3-1 at home to newly-promoted Usti nad Labem is a shocking result. Brno still lack any kind of goal threat, particularly with last season’s top goalscorer for Brno (Rabusic with just six goals!) yet to find the net this season. Brno are a side of workers mingled with experience and a stubborn resolve but even their resolve will be tested by a poor start to this campaign. Brno have looked shaky at the back and inept in front of goal so I can’t take them seriously at the moment despite their strong home record against Slavia. I wonder if their consecutive wins against Slavia may even allow a bit of complacency to creep into their side, especially with Slavia losing more quality players than they bring in each year. Either way, Brno’s morale is ebbing low and they’re facing a side that they need to be at their best to trouble so I fear for them today.
Slavia Prague have my utmost respect but not my complete faith due to a lack of goalscoring on their part too. However, Slavia are unbeaten in their three games so far and also enter this game on the back of a win against Mlada Boleslav so there is some momentum in the camp at least. Slavia haven’t scored more than a goal in those games, however, so I do have my concerns for them today. They’re a good enough side overall but if Brno score then they’re really up against it. It’s pleasing to see Slavia add a traditional Slavia name to their squad once more – Jarolim – as all Jarolims end up at Slavia one way or another! His arrival adds experience and ability to their midfield, which helps to compensate for a fairly lacklustre attack. I was impressed with Slavia’s acquisition of experienced Slovakian winger Karol Kisel too, although bitter rivals Sparta Prague won’t look too favourably upon their ex-player joining their enemies, no doubt! Either way, Kisel is a potent threat from set pieces and has an excellent cross on him and it’s that kind of service that Slavia desperately need because of their ailing attack. Slavia’s attack can be too old or too young but there’s little cohesion between the two to strike a good balance. Slavia are relying a lot on talismanic striker Vicek and also emerging Hora, who they signed in summer, but that’s an awful lot of pressure to place on ageing shoulders and young blood. Long-term – I have doubts for Slavia Prague this season. Short-term – they have enough momentum and creativity to do damage to leaky Brno today so I’ll give them their chances here.
This is a dubious call if only for superstitious head-to-head reasoning but I still like the odds on a clearly better side winning the game at 11/10. I’d not touch Slavia at anything beneath those odds because I don’t think their attack merits it but Brno are extremely well-placed to put in a catastrophic display and allow Slavia to leave with three points so I fancy the away win today at 11/10.
Verdict: Slavia Prague to win at 11/10.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
WAC/St.Andra vs SCR Altach – away win at 11/10.
WAC/St.Andra have done well following promotion to Liga 1 this season. They’ve already won three out of their five games in this league and have looked assured; capable of causing the odd upset if given chance. I like their potent displays at home and any side travelling to face the newcomers will have a hard task ahead of them so I won’t be going much against WAC at home this season, I can tell you! However, I am doing so today because they’re facing what is unequivocally the best side in the division – SCR Altach. Their gamble in the January transfer window earlier this year nearly paid off as their new signings nearly claimed them a promotion place to the Bundesliga but were just beaten to it in the end. Altach’s away form was also somewhat detrimental to their cause last year as they drew too many away games. However, they’ve approached this season exactly as they should have done by hitting the ground running, winning five games out of five, scoring an average of over three goals per game whilst conceding just once along the way. By Liga 1 standards, this SCR Altach side is frightening. You won’t find many sides in this league that can attack and defend effectively but Altach can do so with ease. If they don’t get promoted this year then I’ll be absolutely shocked! Either way, the tremendous momentum and potency of Altach should be far too much for the newcomers today and I expect an away win as a result at generous odds of 11/10.
Verdict: SCR Altach to win at 11/10.
Lierse SK vs Standard de Liege – home win at 21/10.
I really like the idea of newly-promoted Lierse SK doing damage to giants Standard de Liege tonight because I think the scene is set for an upset. Lierse are rightfully back where they belong in the Eerste Klasse after walking the Tweede Klasse with little difficulty. Lierse were by far and away the most supported side in the division because of their club size and therefore were already an Eerste Klasse side before promotion so don’t think they’ll be blown away by the occasion tonight – I doubt they will be! Lierse lost their opening Eerste Klasse game at a tough Sint-Truiden side although you could say they were unlucky to do so in a close game. However, home games are where Lierse excel and what a game for them to have as their first home game of the season, hosting giants Standard! They’ll be highly motivated for this fixture and their fans will be well up for the game so I expect a vibrant atmosphere at the Herman Vanderpoortenstadion tonight. Wealthy Egyptian Maged Samdy has been pouring money into this club for a while now and the signings of the likes of goalkeeper Kawashima from Kawasaki Frontale and Sekour from Sedan-Ardennes has shown that they have the financial backing to bring in players from clubs and/or leagues that are better than they should be able to attract so don’t doubt their ambition. Lierse’s defence can be susceptible but their attack is strong so I fancy them to trouble Standard tonight.
Visitors Standard de Liege have been consistently losing players since they won the Eerste Klasse and they’re now left with the bare bones of what used to be a good side, which is held together by talented playmaker and captain Defour and pacey Axel Witsel. A great deal of Standard’s current squad is too old or too young and this transitional period should be highlighted by a dismal campaign this year. Their most pressing problem, however, is goalscoring. Basically, Standard have no goalscorers anymore! Jovanovic, De Camargo – they’ve both moved on! The only one they still actually have is Mbokani, who is intent on moving away from Standard (although it’s not yet known where to) so they aren’t playing him. Standard also lost Dalmat, Marcos, and Sarr over the summer too! Standard performed ok-ish against Zulte-Waregem in their opening game of the season but again – they’ve been hindered by a lack of goals! They bought Berrier off Zulte in the transfer window and Zulte are little without him and yet Standard still couldn’t beat them due to naive defending and inept finishing. I don’t fault the excellent youth program of Standard de Liege but much like Arsenal’s prestigious youth academy – the players will not peak unless they have someone to learn from which is why neither side will ever dominate their respective countries. Standard look a little short on defenders this year and I think that’ll hinder their overall campaign in due course too. Ultimately, they’re not the side that they were and I think it’ll be far more present this year than last year.
One thing is for sure here – Standard won’t relish this trip. Lierse is never an easy away game, particularly with such a young and frankly depleted squad following a largely unproductive transfer window. Standard are no fools and still have some good players, players that Lierse would kill some of their own players for! However, the only value in this game tonight is on the home win for the motivated and potent hosts against a shaky and unconvincing Liege side although you may want to cover it with draw no bet for obvious reasons.
Verdict: Lierse SK to win at 21/10.
Gornik Zabrze vs Polonia Warsaw – away win at 5/4.
Newly-promoted Gornik Zabrze have already stated that their aim this year is simply to “win as many games as possible”. It’s an admirable tactic and one that should serve them well. Well, it will if they actually do win some games, which doesn’t look too likely given a rather unproductive transfer window. They’ve lost some big players for them in the window i.e. Besta (Slavia Prague), Szczot (Iraklis) and have brought in few players who will aid their cause in the Ekstraklasa although the acquisition of former Wisla Krakow defender Jop will lend a lot of experience to a shaky defence. Gornik will be well motivated for this game given that the reason they were relegated to the Liga 1 in the first place was because Polonia Warsaw beat them so Polonia won’t be given too many favours here! However, the overall quality of Gornik is lacking so I have my doubts over them today.
Interestingly enough, Polonia Warsaw have decided that this year is the year for them to win the Ekstraklasa by their own admission! This is coming from a side that were very nearly relegated last season so it brought a smile to my face to read that, I can tell you! The overall quality of the is certainly good enough to push them into the top four sides in the country and their financial backing certainly helps their cause but I think this year may be a bit too soon for them. They have a great manager in former Barcelona midfielder Bakero who has turned the Warsaw-based side into a good footballing outfit and dominate possession well so the foundations are there for Polonia to push on and progress. What has impressed me the most has been their excellent business in the transfer window with the likes of experienced goalkeeper Onyszko (although he’s struggling with injury problems, as usual), Rachwal (GKS Belchatow), Bruno (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Ebi Smolarek (Kaval), and Sobiech (Ruch Chorzow) all signing for the arising Polonia club. The transfer of Smolarek is fascinating because although he’s been poor in recent seasons, his overall ability is unquestionable so it remains to be seen if Bakero can get the best out of him. The acquisition of Sobiech was a great move as Polonia now have a proper target man although he cost Polonia Warsaw the highest fee ever played for an internal Polish transfer – 1,000,000 Euros! This alone shows Polonia mean business and they’ve looked fairly convincing in their friendlies so I’ll give them their chances today.
Ultimately, despite the revenge mission of the hosts, I really don’t see anything other than an away win here. The class is all in favour of the visitors and the odds justly reflect that. I’d take the away win as short as evens but nothing below that as it is early season. Either way, there really should be value on the away win here today.
Verdict: Polonia Warsaw to win at 5/4.
GKS Belchatow vs Polonia Bytom – home win at 23/20.
This is a risky call because GKS Belchatow aren’t as strong as they were last year but then again, nor are Polonia Bytom. GKS parted with twelve players over summer, the majority of which went to Polonia Warsaw, and brought in just six. Nonetheless, those who were brought in were largely good acquisitions i.e. experienced striker Zewlakow from APOEL Nicosia, Tanevski from Lech Poznan, Baran from Ruch Chorzow etc. The players that left has hurt them a little and it’s shown in some of their friendlies but they still have a good level of ability and are a strong home side so they’re not to be underestimated today. I’d not be as confident, however, had Polonia Bytom not had a financial crisis over summer and been forced to part with captain Trzeciak, Klepczynski, Skaba, Basta, Kulpaka, Mroz, Kotrys, Kuranty, Nowak, and Karalic. It’s a big loss list and although GKS lost players too, the losses of Polonia are more significant because they’re not as good a side as GKS are. Polonia have brought in the likes of ex-Sparta Prague defender Hanek and Vascak who has spent some time in Italy but they’re not as convincing as they were last year in my eyes. Polonia haven’t convinced me in friendlies either so again, I doubt them today.
Head-to-head records between these two sides reveal little although what conclusion can be drawn from them is that GKS always score at home to Polonia Bytom, notching up five goals in Bytom’s last two visits. Can Bytom match that today? I don’t think they’re ready to and the odds are good enough to try your hand on GKS being able to achieve it so my recommendation is the home win today.
Verdict: GKS Belchatow to win at 23/20.
Piast Gliwice vs Katowice – home win at 4/5.
The Silesian derby may be at a fairly redundant period of the Liga 1 season but it should still be a heated affair. Piast made a great start to life in Liga 1 by destroying Odra Wodzislaw, who were relegated from the Ekstraklasa with them last year. They now host rivals Katowice on the back of that excellent result and their momentum should prove useful today as a result. Katowice, however, were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Dolcan Zabki so they’re not at the top of their game currently. Katowice’s current manager Fornalak is a former manager of Piast Gliwice, who was basically made the scapegoat for Piast’s shocking Ekstraklasa displays and eventual relegation so there should be some sparks today as a result. Piast’s recent signing Iwan was the former captain of Katowice so again, sparks should fly here. Katowice miss Owczarek and Dziolka through injury for this game but frankly, it shouldn’t matter anyway – they’re simply not as good as their more illustrious neighbours. I can only imagine that the odds are as generous as they are because this is a derby and as we all know, derbies are to be approached with caution. Nonetheless, 4/5 on Piast to beat anyone in this division is good value in my eyes so that’s my recommendation for today.
Verdict: Piast Gliwice to win at 4/5.
Victoria Branesti vs Universitatea Craiova – away win at 21/20.
The odds on the away win here show that the bookies have cottoned on to the fact that Branesti aren’t playing home games this season a lot quicker than I hoped they would. Much like their opening day defeat against Gaz Metan Medias, Victoria’s game will be played in nearby Buzau. They’ve managed to prove my assessment of them for their game against Gaz Metan correct by failing to turn up in any of their games so far as they’re being easily outclassed by every opponent and I’ll be genuinely surprised if they manage to stay in the division this year. They’re not good enough on or off the field to prevent relegation, in my opinion, and this game should really push them futher towards the drop today too. Craiova are yet to claim a win this season but when you consider that they’ve faced the two biggest sides in Romania in their first two games – CFR Cluj and Steaua Bucharest respectively – then I think it’s fair to understand why that is. That said, Craiova played well in both games and would have fared better by taking the chances that came their way. Last season didn’t depict them to be as good a side as they actually are but I expect that to be indicated today when they face a clearly inferior Victoria Branesti on neutral ground. Although Craiova’s biggest failing isn’t scoring enough goals, one thing that Victoria do is consistently concede goals so I have to try my hand on the away win today – Craiova really should be too good for them and the odds are decent enough to take a chance on.
Verdict: Universitatea Craiova to win at 21/20.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Accumulator fodder:
Perth Glory, St.Patrick’s Athletic, Universidad Cesar Vallejo, Rapid Bucharest.
Recommended bets:
GKS Belchatow and Perth Glory at 3/1.
Piast Gliwice and Universitatea Craiova at 3/1.
Argentinian Primera Division:
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Atletico Lanus (6) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Newcastle Jets (6) over 2.5 goals
Perth Glory vs North Queensland Fury (8) 2-0
Austrian Liga 1:
Gratkorn vs Lustenau (6)
Austria Lustenau vs Hartberg (6) under 2.5 goals
First Vienna vs Admira Wacker (6) over 2.5 goals
WAC/St.Andra vs SCR Altach (7) over 2.5 goals
Grodig vs St.Polten (5)
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Lierse SK vs Standard de Liege (5) 1-0
Colombian Primera A:
La Equidad Bogota vs Once Caldas Manizales (5) 2-2
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Zagreb vs NK Osijek (4) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Brno vs Slavia Prague (7) 0-1
Danish 1st Division:
HB Koge vs Fyn (7) over 2.5 goals
English Championship:
Norwich City vs Watford (4) under 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Haka Valkeakoski vs FC Lahti (4) 1-0
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Nimes (6)
Boulogne vs Clermont Foot (6)
Chateauroux vs Istres (4)
Dijon FCO vs Angers SCO (7)
Grenoble Foot vs Le Havre (5) over 2.5 goals
Metz vs Evien Thonon Gaillard (4)
Reims vs Laval (6)
Tours vs Sedan-Ardennes (5) under 2.5 goals
Vannes OC vs Troyes (6) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Ujpest (6) 1-1
Irish Premier League:
Bray Wanderers vs Sligo Rovers (5) 1-1
Dundalk vs UCD (6) 1-0
Galway United vs Sporting Fingal (6) 0-0
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Drogheda United (8) 2-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Banga Gargzdai vs Kruoja Pakruojis (6) 2-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Roda JC Kerkrade vs Twente Enschede (6) 0-1
Peruvian Primera Division:
Universidad Cesar Vallejo vs FBC Melgar (8) 2-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
GKS Belchatow vs Polonia Bytom (7) 2-1
Gornik Zabrze vs Polonia Warsaw (5) 0-1
Polish Liga 1:
Piast Gliwice vs Katowice (7) at least one red card in this game
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Cluj vs Vaslui (3) 0-1, draw no bet
Rapid Bucharest vs Otelul Galati (8) 2-0
Victoria Branesti vs Universitatea Craiova (6) 1-2
Russian Premier League:
Rostov-na-Donu vs Terek Grozny (6) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Locarno vs Chiasso (6)
Ukrainian Premier League:
Illichivets Mariupol vs Metalurg Zaporizhya (5) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!