Burnley vs Milton Keynes Dons
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Today’s secondary featured game is the English League Cup game between Burnley and Milton Keynes Dons. This competition is not one to enter lightly from a betting perspective but I do like this bet today.
Although traditionally strong at home, Burnley have not impressed me so far this season. They’ve won just once in six Championship games and are still yet to win at home. The continued absence of Paterson hurts the Burnley attack considerably and even a bunch of confused ex-West Ham United attackers can’t help poor Austin up front on his own. Treacy in midfield is a good midfielder and Marney has experience but Burnley are conceding goals too easily and with their precarious placing in the Championship right now, I think they have to prioritise their league commitments over this meaningless cup competition so they may rest players here. Just a thought!
Additionally, MK Dons have been superb so far in League One. I admire their fearless attacking style and despite them occasionally defending like samba lunatics, they do attack well and score goals. They’ve got a talented attacking midfielder in ex-Manchester United winger Luke Chadwick and the MK Dons squad has a good level of understanding, especially this season. Robinson is doing a good job and MK Dons have nothing to lose here – they can only gain from this. There’s no pressure at all on the visitors and with their freescoring style to hand, I fancy them to cause an upset here.
Bet heavily on this competition and you’re a moron. However, I do think there is value in laying Burnley at 5/6. The hosts are not playing well and are not scoring enough goals whereas their opponents are, hence my selection today.
Verdict: Lay Burnley at 5/6.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Arsenal de Sarandi vs All Boys – home win at 10/11.
Three losses from three home games just isn’t Arsenal de Sarandi’s style. I think a combination of bad luck, hard opponents, and Copa Sudamericana commitments has led to their failings but none of those things should affect them here. In Obolo and Leguizamon they still have a dangerous attack. Arsenal are very good on the ball and this is the perfect stage on which to show it, especially following a two-game unbeaten run with a 0-1 win at Banfield and a 2-2 draw at Tigre. All Boys are a plucky side but they’re so poor in front of goal that I can’t give them a chance here. They’ve scored five goals in seven games, failing to score in two out of their last three games. They lost at home to an atrocious Banfield side last match and their morale has to be low as a result. You look at their side and you just don’t see where their attacking quality will come from, barring Uruguayan midfielder Rodriguez. They loaned Ariel Ortega to Defensores last month and although I can understand that, I still classify him as a match-winner and think they should have taken the risk of keeping him. They’ve done nothing pre-season, All Boys, and with such limited quality in the squad, especially in front of goal, I have to favour Arsenal in putting their uncharacteristic home record to sleep by taking three points at decent odds.
Verdict: Arsenal de Sarandi to win at 10/11.
Colon de Santa Fe vs San Martin de San Juan – home win at 4/5.
Colon prefer to play on counter-attacks but I’m going to take a chance on them here. Their iron defence gives me great belief in their ability to win games like these and given that their only loss this season has come against bitter rivals Union de Santa Fe, I think it’s fair to say that they’ve had a solid start to the season. They were strong during their wins against San Lorenzo de Almagro and Independiente lately and just one goal conceded in three games makes them a force here, in my view. One word sums up why their defence is so good; experience. Raldes, Pellegrino, Barraza, Candia etc. are all experienced defenders. Moreno y Fabianesi sat in front of them is vastly experenced too. Colon probably don’t score as many as they should but with pacey Federico Higuain and veteran Fuertes up front, not to mention talented Uruguayan hitman Chevanton, there’s enough here for them to win this game.
It might sound obvious but the only times that San Martin haven’t lost this season is when they’ve played sides that haven’t showed up against them. They’ve really, really struggled lately with three losses in their last four games, bagging just one goal along the way. True, they don’t concede many goals but they do lose games because they don’t score goals. Claudio Graf has been around a lot but if he’s the best they can do then they’re going down, to be horribly blunt. A side with no motivation or effort will not beat San Martin; that’s a credit to their organisation and tenacity. However, a side that is playing well and that will take the initiative against them will beat them and I think Colon are that team.
For me, there’s value on the home win at 4/5.
Verdict: Colon de Santa Fe to win at 4/5.
Blackburn Rovers vs Leyton Orient – home win to nil at 13/10.
This is a speculative bet but it’s one I like and I’ll explain why.
I don’t rate Steve Kean as a boss, particularly. I don’t rate Blackburn’s win against Arsenal at weekend either, if I’m honest – that came from Arsenal being bad rather than Blackburn pushing them or playing the physical game. However, Blackburn have invested quite a bit of money pre-season and the Indian owners of Blackburn clearly expect results as they’ve indicated in their interviews.
So, why not try a cheeky stab at the meaningless League Cup? They know the best they’ll achieve in the Premier League this season is to avoid relegation so why not go for this competition? With luck and effort, they can win the cup – nobody else cares about it, after all. They’ve got some good players in their ranks and it was very important that they kept Samba, in my view – he gives them some stability at the back. They’ve got creativity in Formica, Vukcevic, and Pedersen, when deployed. Yakubu is a gifted finisher when he’s not being lazy and both Roberts and Goodwillie can be dangerous. So yeah – I do believe Blackburn have enough to win this one. The odds don’t interest me on the outright win, however – there’s no sense in betting heavily in this competition on short odds.
My confidence stems largely from Orient’s poor displays this season, though. They surely have to be focusing on avoiding the drop into League Two because with seven defeats and two draws from their nine League One games so far this season, they’re really not well-placed to stay up. It’s a long season, naturally, but the attention has to start now. This side has conceded an average of over two goals per game and score an average of just over a goal per every two games. They don’t concede too many on the road, to their credit – they only really tend to concede when pushing to attack. However, they don’t attack on the road either, hence scoring one goal on the road this seasona and that came in the dying minutes when stamina was running low. Orient can be a plucky side and I remember being very impressed with them last season but tonight against a side that are far more interested in the competition than they are, I think Blackburn will win it without much of a fight.
As a spectacle, I expect a terrible game so I wouldn’t waste your time watching it. However, I can see Blackburn edging this by a goal or two and I don’t see Orient scoring so Blackburn winning without conceding interests me at 13/10.
Verdict: Blackburn Rovers to win to nil at 13/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Arsenal, Fenerbahce.
Recommended bets:
I don’t like any multiples today – sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa Sudamericana:
Aurora Cochabamba vs Nacional Asuncion (6) 1-0
Emelec Guayaquil vs Olimpia Asuncion (7) 1-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Arsenal de Sarandi vs All Boys (6) 2-1
Colon de Santa Fe vs San Martin de San Juan (7) 1-0
Banfield vs Olimpo (4) 1-1
English League Cup:
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Millwall (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Aldershot Town vs Rochdale (6) 1-1
Burnley vs Milton Keynes Dons (4) over 2.5 goals
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United (5) 1-1
Aston Villa vs Bolton Wanderers (6) 1-0
Stoke City vs Tottenham Hotspur (5) 1-1
Leeds United vs Manchester United (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Arsenal vs Shrewsbury Town (8) over 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough (6) 0-1
Blackburn Rovers vs Leyton Orient (7) 1-0
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs LOSC Lille (6) 1-1
Italian Serie A:
Novara vs Internazionale (5) over 2.5 goals
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Domzale vs Rudar Velenje (5) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Osasuna vs Sevilla CF (5) 1-2
Real Sociedad vs Granada (7) 1-0
Villarreal CF vs Real Mallorca (7) 1-0
Turkish Super Lig:
Gaziantepspor vs Kayserispor (7) 2-1
Fenerbahce vs Manisaspor (8) over 2.5 goals
Istanbul BB vs Orduspor (5) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!