BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke 04
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Today’s featured game is the Bundesliga derby between Dortmund and Schalke 04. Given Dortmund’s outstanding season so far, it’s understandable that the odds on a Dortmund win here are short as they really should beat Schalke 04. However, derbies are strange affairs so I don’t fancy the home win tonight, at least not from an odds perspective.
As Dortmund are eleven points clear at the top of the Bundesliga with fourteen games remaining, it’s going to take something monumental to stop this excellent young side from deservingly winning the Bundesliga. However, this game is one of numerous hard games that await them before they claim their long-awaited crown so it’ll be interesting to see how they handle their bitter rivals tonight. Dortmund are going to play it without important attacking midfielder Kagawa, who is still out with the injury sustained whilst on international duty for Japan at the Asian Cup, which is a hefty blow. They also miss star Serbian defender Subotic, which is another hefty blow. They have other absences too but I’m not particularly concerned by those absences for varying reasons. However, Subotic missing is going to cause them problems defensively and I think Dortmund’s excellent defensive home record may be affected in this game as a result. Let’s face it – Schalke 04 have scored on ten out of their last eleven visits against Dortmund and they’ve got the firepower to do so again tonight. Nonetheless, Dortmund are confident following a dominant 0-3 victory at VfL Wolfsburg so they should play a good game of football tonight, just as they have in the vast majority of their home games this season already.
Can Schalke 04 match them though? I don’t honestly know the answer to that question as they sometimes turn up and sometimes don’t. However, this is a derby game and if they’ve not motivated tonight then they’ll never be motivated. Schalke 04 have made some…interesting moves during the transfer window, allowing star striker Farfan to join VfL Wolfsburg and Croatian attacking midfielder Ivan Rakitic to join Sevilla CF, both of which puzzled me a lot. Schalke 04 puzzled me even more by signing ex-Bayern Munich midfielder Ali Karimi from Steel Azin in Iran, experienced Greek target man Charisteas from Arles, and Ghanaian midfield engine Anthony Annan from Rosenborg BK. I genuinely don’t know where this club is heading or what they’re aiming for and I’m not sure that they do either! The above makes it even harder to call which Schalke 04 will turn up tonight. However, any attack with Raul and Huntelaar potentially being in it has a very good chance of scoring goals, especially with a key defender being absent from their opponents, so I’ll give Schalke 04 a chance here. Schalke 04’s defence is vulnerable when pushed hard enough, something which isn’t as well reflected in their statistics as it should be, but it’s something I expect to be exposed tonight by a confident and tenacious Dortmund side, especially with Schalke 04 entering this game on the back of a very poor 0-1 defeat at home to Hoffenheim.
I appreciate that Dortmund are truly terrific this season and by all logical reasoning, they should win this game. However, I cannot entertain backing them to win this game at 8/13 when they’ve beaten Schalke 04 just once in their last eleven attempts at home. Dortmund are better now than they have been since the late 90’s, in my view, and they look deadly in front of goal. However, I’ve moved on to over 2.5 goals for this game as this game tends to go over, something that has happened in six out of the last nine meetings between these two sides. I think over 2.5 goals is priced quite generously at 5/6, really, so that’s my call today.
Team news – BV09 Borussia Dortmund miss Kagawa, Focher, Hornschuh, Subotic, Owomoyela, Kehl, Kringe, Ginczek, and Le Tallec whereas Schalke 04 miss Unnestall, Hoogland, Pachan, Sarpei, Kenia, Moritz, Pliatsikas, Streit, Charisteas, Loheider, Bo. Muller, and Pourie.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Melbourne Heart vs Central Coast Mariners – away win at 13/10.
This game is do-or-die for Melbourne Heart as the wealthy hosts seek to claim a place in the final stages of the A-League. However, with just two games remaining, they simply have to win this game as they’re two points behind in-form Wellington Phoenix and I think that’ll backfire on them as they only attack well when in control of a game as defending is their strength. It may take some time but in this game I expect the Heart to attack in a way that they’re not used to and Central Coast Mariners are more than able to hit them on the counter-attack and score goals here. The Mariners are in a very strong position and as long as they don’t do anything stupid then they’ll be in the final with Brisbane Roar at the end of the A-League campaign. The Mariners are in terrific form too with four wins and two draws from their past six games, winning their last three away games consecutively, including a win against rivals Adelaide United. Momentum is strong for the visitors whereas the hosts are really struggling for form so I have to favour the Mariners today. This should be a tight game, especially given the importance of it. However, I have to favour an away win here for the frankly superior side as the hosts should be in a position in this game that they hate to be in – being forced to attack – and thus shoud be exploited. The Heart miss imprtant defender Zahara and squad rotation strike Babalj so their limited squad should be rather stretched here too.
Team news – Melbourne Heart miss Zahara and Babalj whereas Central Coast Mariners miss Vanstrattan, Porter, Mrdja, and Baird.
Verdict: Central Coast Mariners to win at 13/10.
Energie Cottbus vs Alemannia Aachen – home win at evens.
I wouldn’t take this bet at anything below evens but I like it as it is. Cottbus have disappointed lately but that’s usual for them – they only play well at home. They score a lot of goals at home and have won the vast majority of their Bundesliga 2 home games so they’re generally a force on their own turf as long as they show up. Aachen, on the other hand, are not usually a force. They can score a lot of goals in the right circumstances but their defence continually lets them down as they can concede against anyone, to be frank. Cottbus are a better attacking side than Aachen and it really should show in this game tonight. Don’t be surprised to see plenty of goals but Cottbus winning this game at evens appeals to me.
Team news – Energie Cottbus miss Renno and Borner whereas Alemannia Aachen miss Krumpen, Stuckmann, Herzig, Olajengbesi, Burkhardt, Muller, Zdebel, Daun, and Uludag.
Verdict: Energie Cottbus to win at evens.
Bursaspor vs Sivasspor – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
For me, this selection is priced too generously today. As far as the top seven in the Super Lig goes, Bursaspor are the second-lowest scoring side behind Manisaspor. Although Bursaspor tend to dominate their home games, they rarely score enough goals to be comfortable due to a lack of a proper finisher. However, new Scottish striker Kenny Miller may be the solution to their problem – I guess only time will tell. Nonetheless, it cannot be denied that Bursaspor are not a great goalscoring side. They’re well-organised and hard to beat but this side doesn’t concern me in front of goal, even with the talented Sercan Yildrim in their team – they just don’t threaten the opposing goal enough. Their morale is good for this game, however, following a 2-0 win against Galatasaray last match so do approach with caution here.
Statistics show that Sivasspor are quite prone to being annihlated on the road but they’ve made some astute signings in the transfer window that impressed me a lot, to be honest, signings that weren’t massive news due to the massive activity of bigger Super Lig clubs in the transfer market. Slyly, Sivasspor drafted in two Viktoria Plzen defenders (Navratil and Rada), a Jagiellonia Bialystok attacker (Grosicki), Nantes’ Slovakian goalkeeper (Kamenar), and have even taken a chance on Nigerian attacker Enerano from ES Tunis. They recognise the situation they’re in is not the best and are thus looking to solidfy their rather youthful side and I think they’ve done it, especially with the two Czech acquisitions. It’s no coincidence that Navratil and Rada have played two games apiece for Sivasspor since joining and that Sivasspor have looked a lot more secure defensively with their two games both going under 2.5 goals so I expect more of the same here, especially as Bursaspor struggle to find the net, generally speaking.
Six out of Bursaspor’s nine home games in the Super Lig this season have gone under 2.5 goals and Sivasspor’s last four away games have all gone under 2.5 goals. Sivasspor only lost 1-0 at Fenerbahce and Galatasaray respectively earlier this season so unders look a lot more likely than the bookies’ odds suggest, particularly having strengthened during the break. Therefore, my call for this game is under 2.5 goals with a cheeky punt on a 1-0 scoreline at 5/1.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
HJK Helsinki, AFC Ajax Amsterdam.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today, guys – sorry!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart vs Central Coast Mariners (6) 1-2
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent vs Lierse SK (3) 1-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad Catolica vs Audax Italiano (5) over 2.5 goals
English Championship:
Reading vs Crystal Palace (4)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Inter Turku vs IFK Mariehamn (6) 2-1
HJK Helsinki vs MyPa Anjalankoski (8) 2-0
German Bundesliga:
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke 04 (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
German Bundesliga 2:
Osnabruck vs Augsburg (5) 0-1
FSV Frankfurt vs Greuther Furth (6) over 2.5 goals
Energie Cottbus vs Alemannia Aachen (6)
Italian Serie B:
Reggina vs Padova (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Necaxa vs Morelia (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
AFC Ajax Amterdam vs De Graafschap (9) -1.5 handicap
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
RKC Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport (6)
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Telstar (4)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Emmen (5) both sides to score
Fortuna Sittard vs Zwolle (6) both sides to score
Eindhoven vs Dordrecht ’90 (6)
RBC Roosendaal vs Veendam (5)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Naval de Maio (7) under 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Deportivo Xerez vs Barcelona II (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Bursaspor vs Sivasspor (7) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!