BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Sevilla CF
FreeHere’s your advanced UEFA Europa League warning pre-games as usual:
Do not enter this round of games thinking that there is easy money anywhere! This competition is far too unreliable so keep stakes sensible today, if indeed you bet at all!
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League encounter in Germany between BV09 Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla CF. Dortmund have impressed me a lot so far this season whereas Sevilla haven’t impressed me at all so the foundations of this bet are plain to see!
Dortmund have started their campaign as well as I expected them to, pleasingly. They’ve fused their energetic football style with a level of flambuoyancy and a depth to their squad that they’ve not had for many years so this side really does look to be going places currently. Barring their opening Bundesliga game blip at home to Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Dortmund have been immaculate with some fabulous attacking displays in every competition. They’ve currently won seven consecutive games, five of which were away from home! They’ve scored twenty-one goals along the way which is an impressive average of three goals scored per game and although they’ve abandoned defending along the way, they’re certainly seeing the returns from their tactical change around, at least for the time being. Dortmund have won at VfB Stuttgart, at bitter rivals Schalke 04, at home to title contenders VfL Wolfsburg, and even in Ukraine against a resilient Karpaty Lviv side. This Dortmund side simply doesn’t know when to give in, which I am a massive admirer of. Dortmund’s attacking foursome of Barrios, Lewandowski, Kagawa, and Grosskreutz have all been scoring goals for fun, which is terrifying for their opponents, naturally. Nuri Sahin looks immense in midfield and with all five of those anywhere near the first team, I’m all over a Dortmund win against most sides that they’ll encounter this season, particularly with such strong momentum and potency in their favour.
Visitors Sevilla CF have had a terrible start to their campaign so it’s no surprise at all that coach Antonio Alvarez was recently sacked. Sevilla have interestingly replaced him with ex-Real Mallorca manager Gregorio Manzano, which could be a good move for their home form but let’s not forget how badly his sides played away from home. Sevilla have already been embarrassed by Portugal’s Sporting Braga this season to dump them out of the UEFA Champions League Qualifiers and they’ve already lost their only game in the UEFA Europa League thus far at home to French side Paris Saint-Germain. Sevilla have looked short on goals, short on confidence, and vulnerable in defence. I don’t doubt that Manzano’s arrival will give them a lift but it’s surely too soon for his arrival to gift the Spanish visitors an inspired display at the Westfalenstadion tonight? Manzano will bring the spark back to Sevilla in due course, I am sure, especially as the club has some very gifted players. However, I’ll be surprised if that’s the case tonight so I expect the somewhat uninterested Sevilla side to struggle and ultimately lose this game tonight.
Generally speaking, these two sides are capable of going toe-to-toe quality-wise so caution must be used with this bet. However, given how well Dortmund are playing and the wealth of attacking options available to them and given that they’re facing a Sevilla side that cannot defend, the home win at evens looks very intriguing indeed.
Verdict: BV09 Borussia Dortmund to win at evens.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Zenit St.Petersburg vs AEK Athens – Zenit St.Petersburg to win to nil at 4/5.
I think we’ve all started to witness just how good Zenit are nowadays and it’s no great surprise following the hefty financial backing that supports them. This side is arguably as good as Zenit were in the days of the Arshavin-Kerzhakov combination in attack and look considerably more composed at the back too. Spalletti has brought an Italian style to the Russian side and they’ve finally started to benefit from it now that Kerzhakov is finding the net on a regular basis to take the pressure off playmaker Danny in midfield. The signing of Bukharov from Rubin Kazan was an inspired one as Zenit now boast yet another competent attacker so Zenit are moving very swiftly towards the top of the Russian Premier League tree, not to mention the table itself. I, along with most people I daresay, feel that Zenit will win the league this year and stated so near the start of the season too. They have a very strong bench, a very good and experienced manager, and are very composed in general. There’s experience, clinical finishing, and solid tactics in this Zenit side so it’s no surprise that they’re so hard to beat, especially at Petrovsky. Zenit worryingly destroyed Anderlecht away from home in their opening Europa League game so we could see a whitewash again tonight if Zenit turn up as they have for most of the season. Hell, they’ve only failed to win five out of twenty Premier League games this season and they’ve not lost any of those thanks to the above attributes so it’s easy to see why the bookies favour them today. Zenit have won seven out of ten at home whilst averaging scoring two goals per home game and have kept five clean sheets along the way too so you can see that the bedrock of their success stems from a stable and dependable defence. Zenit dominated their UEFA Champions League Qualifier at home to Auxerre but only won 1-0, which ultimately cost them their place in the Champions League this season. I don’t expect them to make a similar mistake today so I expect a very efficient and controlled victory for the hosts.
Visitors AEK Athens couldn’t be worse prepared for this game, however. Greek football is not at its pinnacle currently and their sides rarely travel well but now AEK are travelling to an in-form and superior Zenit St.Petersburg side with no manager as Bajevic left the club recently following a disappointing start to their Super League campaign. Just when AEK fans start to think that things might be going their way for a change then this happens. They’ve lost some ridiculous games this season i.e. defeats at Olympiakos Volos and at Kerkyra Corfu, both of which have only just been promoted. They’ve looked utterly inept in defence with in five out of their last six games in all competitions and with six conceded in their last three games in all competitions, they’re looking far from stable at the moment. AEK don’t have players good enough to win them this game today, as bold a statement as that may be. They’re not the big side that they once were and I think the bookies’ odds reflect that rather well. AEK are going to have to be very good or very lucky to get anything from this game and they seem bereft of both of those factors, which should really spell problems for the Greek side.
I won’t get carried away with handicap option here although I’ve seen that a lot of people are. The reason I’m not isn’t because Zenit aren’t capable – they certainly are capable – but because they don’t have to and when they don’t have to, they rarely do it. You know as well as I do that Italian managers will generally take a 1-0 win over a 3-1 win any day of the week as they love their clean sheets and Zenit’s machine of a team are no exception to this unwritten law of Italian management! Zenit are by far the better side here and make great accumulator fodder but for me, the value is on the hosts winning the game without conceding as they’re very much a possession side playing against a fairly impotent AEK side.
Verdict: Zenit St.Petersburg to win to nil at 4/5.
OB Odense vs VfB Stuttgart – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
OB Odense are still shell-shocked after the controversial sacking of their manager a couple of weeks ago and their displays have shown it too. They’re still attacking with purpose but they’ve lost the ability to defend somewhere along the way and their season could very well collapse unless they pick themselves up rapidly. After a 2-1 defeat in Spain against Getafe in their opening Europa League game, the onus is on OB to produce a display tonight against German side VfB Stuttgart and you wouldn’t bet against them, given the terrible displays of Stuttgart so far. Stuttgart won their opening Europa League game 3-0 at home to Swiss giants Young Boys Bern but have been appalling in the Bundesliga thus far as their side scrambles around desperately for points with little talent at their disposal and their big players consistently not turning up for important games. Four out of Stuttgart’s six away games this season have gone over 2.5 goals because they cannot defend and yet always seem to manage a token goal somehow. OB Odense are in a similar position to their German side so you get the impression that this game could just turn into a pure samba game with plenty of goals against weak defending. Three out of OB’s four home games in the Europa League this season have gone over 2.5 goals too as they also cannot defend so this should be quite a good game to watch today, really, although I can’t pretend it’ll be due to footballing quality but rather footballing ineptitude in defence. Ultimately, this game should clear 2.5 goals with both sides only able to attack although you’re a braver man than I am if you take the 1×2 market on.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Steaua Bucharest vs SSC Napoli – away win at 33/20.
I’ve never been a fan of backing Italian sides away from home in Italy, let alone outside of Italy. However, Napoli are one of the strongest sides in Italy at the moment, in my opinion, and although their season hasn’t fully started yet, they’re still looking a real threat in front of goal. The players in their attack give them a chance of beating anyone currently and back-to-back away wins against a good Sampdoria side and a resilient Cesena side (both from behind) bring them good confidence and momentum ahead of this tough trip to Romania, particularly as they’ve scored six goals in doing so. There’s immense finesse and creativity in this Napoli side that hasn’t been there so consistently for a long time and as a result, I have great faith in them although their defence can occasionally be caught out as they’re not 100% at the back yet. I think the odds are a tad long with the above in mind, particularly given the nightmarish situation that Steaua are in with yet another manager (Dumitrescu) having moved on. If there’s no consistency in the management of the team’s players then the players become disillusioned, uncontrollable, want to leave etc. and Steaua are not in a position whereby they’re good enough to win games without playing well as they lack a lot of match-winners nowadays. This was more than evident in their weekend defeat at a resilient Otelul Galati side and I expect a similar type of game tonight. I never bet against Steaua lightly when they’re at home as they’re a massive club with great support but how there can be any cohesion in this side when the manager is changed every week is beyond me. In my opinion, Steaua are not in a position to take anything from this game so I’ll take a chance and call a risky away win at generous odds.
Verdict: SSC Napoli to win at 33/20.
BATE Borisov vs AZ Alkmaar – home win at 5/4.
I wouldn’t touch this bet if the odds drop as BATE are rapidly becoming a public bet each round because of their reliability. In terms of consistency, they’ve lessened as the season drags on by losing at home to bitter rivals Dinamo Minsk but followed it up by beating title contenders FC Minsk instead so this game entirely depends on which BATE side shows up. BATE aren’t stupid though; they recognise that a great deal of the money used to make them into a good side every year stems from their European sojourn so they’re always well-motivated for games like this and they’re generally very reliable at home too. They claimed a 2-2 draw in Kiev against Dyanmo Kiev in their last Europa League game and have battered Maritimo Funchal of Portugal 5-1 over two legs so I can’t ignore the good odds available for BATE tonight. Their lack of consistency and composure at the back of late worries me a lot because BATE aren’t good enough goalscorers to come from behind to win a game in Europe, generally. However, what gives me confidence is the complete lack of potency in the AZ Alkmaar side currently so I’d be surprised to see BATE fall behind in this game. AZ are only threatening from set pieces but BATE are competent enough when defending set pieces anyway so I’m really not concerned about the AZ attack here. Since they lose Dembele and El Hamdaoui in the summer, AZ have looked vulnerable in attack and nothing has changed my mind about that in time for this game. They’re still quite competent defensively but the trip to Belarus is never an easy one as many sides over the past few years have discovered (i.e. AA Gent, Juventus, Zenit St.Petersburg, Maritimo Funchal etc.) so I really don’t fancy AZ here.
Expect a low-scoring and tactical affair but whilst BATE are at 5/4, I fancy them to edge this one as they simply have more to offer in front of goal than their Dutch opponents do.
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win at 5/4.
CSKA Moscow vs Sparta Prague – home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
Although Sparta are really starting to sort themselves out domestically of late, they’re still nowhere near the side that they were so I’m surprised that the odds on this selection are as generous as they are. Fair play to Sparta – they overcame Palermo 3-2 at home in their opening Europa League game (albeit via some good fortune!) but let’s not forget why they’re in this competition in the first place. They’re here because MSK Zilina of Slovakia beat them both at home and away in the UEFA Champions League Qualifiers and it’s that Sparta that I’m more interested in focusing upon because that’s the one I’ve seen more often this season, especially domestically. Sparta have looked vulnerable in defence and although Wilfried is a constant threat in attack, he’s mostly the only one that is for Sparta. Their midfielders are good on the ball and can create a good number of changes but the Khimki Arena is not the friendliest of venues in size or pitch quality and CSKA being used to that fact have gained a new advantage to their football as a result. CSKA have been immaculate in recent times with Vagner Love’s return sparking off a great run of form with plenty of goals being scored along the way. CSKA destroyed Cypriot giants Anorthosis Famagusta here 4-0 back in August and impressive strolled to victory in Switzerland lately against wildcard Lausanne Sports via a comfortable 3-0 scoreline. What I like about this current CSKA side is that they’re finally beginning to become reliable defensively again and thus their attackers can be better serviced and score more goals. CSKA destroyed Tom Tomsk 3-0 away from home at weekend and although that result doesn’t look much on paper, it is to me because Tom are a very hard side to play against away from home. CSKA still don’t have enough attacking options for my liking but Sparta are looking vulnerable defensively and that should be exploited today if tempremental but talented striker Vagner Love turns up. I’ll also have a great deal of faith in emerging Czech striker Tomas Necid for this game as he was a Slavia Prague youngster and would simply adore to score against his old club’s bitter rivals tonight.
Bluntly – CSKA have too much of an advantage in attack over Czech opponents Sparta Prague and with their visitors really struggling to keep clean sheets, I fancy this trip to Russia to be an unpleasant one for the Czech giants. CSKA have enough players in midfield to overrun Sparta and that’s basically what I expect to happen today and therefore the odds on the home win with the handicap looks tempting to me.
Verdict: CSKA Moscow to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Zenit St.Petersburg, Porto.
Recommended bets:
Zenit St.Petersburg, BV09 Borussia Dortmund, and CSKA Moscow at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Hajduk Split vs Anderlecht (6) 1-1
Zenit St.Petersburg vs AEK Athens (8) 2-0
OB Odense vs VfB Stuttgart (5) over 2.5 goals
Young Boys Bern vs Getafe (5) over 2.5 goals
Sampdoria vs Debreceni VSC (6) 2-1
Metalist Kharkiv vs PSV Eindhoven (5) 0-0
Paris Saint-Germain vs Karpaty Lviv (7) 3-1
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Sevilla CF (7) 2-0
Steaua Bucharest vs SSC Napoli (6) 0-1
FC Utrecht vs Liverpool (5) under 2.5 goals
Rapid Vienna vs Besiktas JK (6) 1-1
CSKA Sofia vs Porto (8) 0-2
PAOK Salonika vs Dinamo Zagreb (5) 2-2
Villarreal vs Club Brugge (7) over 2.5 goals
BATE Borisov vs AZ Alkmaar (6) 1-0, draw no bet
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dynamo Kiev (4) under 2.5 goals
CSKA Moscow vs Sparta Prague (8) -1.5 handicap
Palermo vs Lausanne Sports (7) 2-1
Lech Poznan vs Salzburg (6) 1-1
Manchester City vs Juventus (7) over 2.5 goals
Rosenborg BK vs Aris Salonika (7) under 2.5 goals
Atletico Madrid vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (7) over 2.5 goals
AA Gent vs LOSC Lille (5) 0-1
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Levski Sofia (6) under 2.5 goals
Peruvian Primera Division:
Alianza Atletico vs Leon de Huanuco (5) 1-1
Universidad San Martin vs Universitario Lima (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!